Background: Currently, there are no population-level smoking cessation interventions widely promoted in China. Economic concerns are one of the major barriers to a greater promotion of smoking cessation interventions in China. Objectives: The objective of this study was to use evidence on the effectiveness of physician counselling and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) patches use from Western countries, with the most recent smoking data from China to predict the potential effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of physician counselling and NRT patch in the healthcare system in urban China. Methods: In Study 1, statistical analysis was conducted to estimate smoking and cessation rates in urban China. In Study 2, a Comparative Relative Assessment model was used to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of physician counselling and NRT patch use for smoking cessation. Study 2 determined the estimates and costs of additional quitters and avoided lung cancer deaths from the implementation of physician counselling and NRT patch use in the healthcare system in urban China. Results: In Study 1, smokers intending to quit were significantly more likely to have quit at follow-up than those not intending to quit. A total of 35.4% of smokers in urban China reported visiting a doctor in the past 12 months. Smokers who visited a doctor were significantly more likely to intend to quit and to have quit smoking at follow- up compared to those who did not visit a doctor. In Study 2, brief counselling to all smokers visiting the healthcare system in China was the most effective and cost-effective smoking intervention by generating a total of 2.35 million quitters at $2.32-$7.73 per quitter. Smoking cessation counselling were found to be cost saving when compared with the total cost of lung cancer to Chinese society. The wide promotion of the NRT patch would be costly, requiring significant financial investments. Conclusions: Implementing smoking cessation counselling in the healthcare system in urban China will result in cost savings from lung cancer. The high retail price and low acceptance of NRT patches in China may be required to achieve a population-level impact from pharmaceutical interventions.

Background: Currently, there are no population-level smoking cessation interventions widely promoted in China. Economic concerns are one of the major barriers to a greater promotion of smoking cessation interventions in China. Objectives: The objective of this study was to use evidence on the effectiveness of physician counselling and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) patches use from Western countries, with the most recent smoking data from China to predict the potential effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of physician counselling and NRT patch in the healthcare system in urban China. Methods: In Study 1, statistical analysis was conducted to estimate smoking and cessation rates in urban China. In Study 2, a Comparative Relative Assessment model was used to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of physician counselling and NRT patch use for smoking cessation. Study 2 determined the estimates and costs of additional quitters and avoided lung cancer deaths from the implementation of physician counselling and NRT patch use in the healthcare system in urban China. Results: In Study 1, smokers intending to quit were significantly more likely to have quit at follow-up than those not intending to quit. A total of 35.4% of smokers in urban China reported visiting a doctor in the past 12 months. Smokers who visited a doctor were significantly more likely to intend to quit and to have quit smoking at follow- up compared to those who did not visit a doctor. In Study 2, brief counselling to all smokers visiting the healthcare system in China was the most effective and cost-effective smoking intervention by generating a total of 2.35 million quitters at $2.32-$7.73 per quitter. Smoking cessation counselling were found to be cost saving when compared with the total cost of lung cancer to Chinese society. The wide promotion of the NRT patch would be costly, requiring significant financial investments. Conclusions: Implementing smoking cessation counselling in the healthcare system in urban China will result in cost savings from lung cancer. The high retail price and low acceptance of NRT patches in China may be required to achieve a population-level impact from pharmaceutical interventions.

Background Pulmonary diseases are the leading causes of mortality globally amongst children under five years of age. Economic evaluations (EEs) guide decision-makers on which health care intervention to adopt to reduce paediatric pulmonary disease burden. Methods We systematically reviewed EEs for paediatric pulmonary diseases published globally between 2010 and 2020. We searched PubMed, Web of Science, MEDLINE, Paediatric Economic Database Evaluation (PEDE), and the Cochrane library. EEs included were specific to paediatric pulmonary diseases in a hospital setting and of children aged from zero to six years old. We extracted data items guided by the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. We collected qualitative and quantitative data which we analysed in Microsoft Excel and R Software. Results 22 studies met the inclusion criteria. Seven of the articles were cost-effectiveness analyses, five cost-utility analyses, two cost-minimisation analyses, and eight cost analyses. Fourteen studies were conducted in high-income countries, eight in low-middle-income countries (LMICs). Ten studies were on asthma, nine on pneumonia, two on asthma and pneumonia, and one on tuberculosis. Quality assessment of the articles revealed some methodological inconsistencies across the articles. Conclusion Fewer EEs were conducted in LMICs, yet children from these countries are disproportionately affected by pulmonary diseases. Developing standardised methods for EEs and conducting more EEs and for paediatric pulmonary diseases in LMICs could allow for more evidence-based decision-making.

Each year approximately 7,500 low-income Virginia families are enrolled in the Expanded Food and Nutrition Education Program (EFNEP), administered through the Virginia Cooperative Extension (VCE). Chronic disease and health conditions cost society an estimated $250 billion each year in medical charges and lost productivity. It has been assumed that the numerous diet and food-related changes made by EFNEP participants will lead to a reduction in the risk of chronic disease among homemakers, and perhaps, other family members. Thus, the improved diets and behaviors resulting from EFNEP participation may result in substantial future savings in healthcare costs among participants. This study explores the possibility of potential economic benefits for the Virginia EFNEP participants. In 1996, the Virginia Cooperative Extension was awarded a grant from the Cooperative State, Research, Education, and Extension Service, United States Department of Agriculture (CSREES, USDA) to conduct a cost-benefit study of EFNEP in Virginia. Though computation of the cost-benefit ratio for the Virginia adult EFNEP includes both direct and indirect benefits, this study addressed only the assessment of the direct tangible benefits based on the savings from economic costs of avoided diseases. Existing EFNEP data for the 1996 fiscal year was used to identify optimal nutritional behaviors that can delay or prevent the onset of certain chronic diseases and health conditions. The economic costs of diseases were identified from scientific literature and translated as potential benefits. The administration costs of EFNEP were also compiled. The total direct tangible benefit for the diseases and conditions identified was estimated to be $17,770,722. Along with the indirect tangible benefits ($321,462), the total tangible benefits for the Virginia EFNEP was calculated to be $18,092,184. The direct tangible costs associated with the Virginia EFNEP in 1996 was $1,922,204. The benefit-cost ratio for the Virginia EFNEP for the 1996 fiscal year for the subset of the population practicing the optimal nutritional behaviors is calculated at $9.41/$1.00 (a $9.41 return for every $1 invested in EFNEP in Virginia). Also, a benefit of $2.45 to $1.00 was calculated when only 25% of those participants practicing optimal nutritional behaviors were assumed retain these behaviors through life. For a program of the magnitude of EFNEP, these results are very gratifying. / Ph. D.

The aim of this thesis is to explore methods to incorporate external effects on decision making of public health programmes in a UK setting, using smoking cessation as an example. The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) methodological guidance for evaluating public health programmes is missing the incorporation of external effects. Therefore there is a need for considering their incorporation in such evaluations and to assess what are the appropiate methods to do so. Smoking cessation is an example where epidemiological evidence of external effects exists but has not generally been incorporated into economic evaluation. This thesis therefore focused in measuring the impact, in terms of costs and QALYs lost, of the incorporation of passive smoking, smoking during pregnancy and transmission of smoking behavior into economic evaluation of smoking cessation programmes previously developed to inform policy. A static Markov model is used to incorporate passive smoking and smoking during pregnancy, whereas transmisison of smoking behaviour is incorporated through a dynamic model. The findings show that some external effects can be incorporated without a system dynamic model, when this does occur, a static Markov model may be used to account for external effects in economic evaluation. Sometimes, to incorporate external effects, the model needs a change of population. Because smoking cessation interventions are generally highly cost-effective, the incorporation of external effects does not appear to change policy decisions, but there is a clear impact on the magnitude of the ICER. Passive smoking and smoking during pregnancy have higher impact in terms of costs and QALYs lost than transmission of smoking behaviour. Our discussion considers the validity of the methods used; how much the decision making process would be affected considering or not external effects on economic evaluation of smoking cessation interventions; and other valuation approaches for external effects, such as contingent valuation.

The focus of this thesis is economic evaluations of programs and interventions regarding children and adolescents with mental health issues, victimization, and intellectual disabilities (ID). The first paper examines a potential link between mental health issues among adolescent and the class-size of the school class they are enrolled in. The class-size and schools’ financial resources is often at the center of policy debates. Our results suggest that there is no evidence that larger classes have negative impact on the mental health for adolescents in a Swedish context. The second paper investigate the societal willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce bullying in Swedish schools. The results suggest that the tax payers WTP is about 5 SEK and the societal is about 600 000 SEK per reduced bullying victim. This value of WTP could be used as a measure to evaluate different investments in anti-bullying programs and efforts to reduce the bullying in schools. The third paper estimates the cost-effectiveness of one recently introduced antibullying program, the Finnish KiVa program, one of the few evidence based programs in the world. Based on a decision-analytic model, the results indicate that the KiVa program is a cost-effective program that has a cost per reduced victim well below the WTP as estimated in the second paper as documented above. The fourth paper evaluates, from the municipality perspective, the effects of investing in a SE program compared to “business as usual” in order to increase the likelihood for gaining regular employment for the pupils with ID. The results indicate that it takes 9 years before breakeven is reached if investing in the SE program. The fifth paper conducts a decision-analytic economic evaluation of the SE program using simulations to assess the effects over the full life-course. The results suggest that from a societal perspective the program is cost-effective ten years after the investment and by then has generated a benefit of 17 000 SEK per individual.

Telemedicine offers an alternative referral strategy for fetal cardiology but is currently only used for ‘high-risk’ pregnancies. A case-study of a cost-consequences analysis comparing telemedicine to direct referral to a perinatal cardiologist is initially presented, which highlights that for high risk women for whom telemedicine was considered no cardiac anomalies were missed using either referral method. In the light of a review of the literature on the economics of telemedicine, three of the key methodological issues (of selection bias, of patient costs and using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) are explored to demonstrate how the case study analysis could be improved. Pregnant women were selected for referral based on their characteristics and risk factors; thus the cost and effects for the two groups may have been biased. Various methods identified in the literature are applied to the case study to reduce selection bias, but the analysis presented is unable to determine which method is best, given a number of limitations including the small sample size. The analysis is extended to include estimated total patient costs. However, when patient costs are added to the total costs of pregnancy, they did not substantially increase the overall cost. The results presented provide a guideline for future researchers and pregnant women of the likely costs during pregnancy. Given that the majority of missed cardiac anomalies were amongst low risk women, a decision analytical model is developed looking at the lifetime costs and QALYs of introducing telemedicine screening for pregnant women whose unborn babies are at a low risk of congenital heart disease. The analysis shows that offering telemedicine to all low risk women is the dominant strategy. The thesis demonstrates, within the constraints of existing data, that it would be cost-effective to provide telemedicine as part of an antenatal screening programme for all low risk women, and this would help prevent future ‘missed anomalies’.

In Myanmar, Plasmodium falciparum malaria is important because of both the burden of disease and the emergence of parasites resistant to artemisinin-based therapies. In 2012, concomitant with the lifting of international economic sanctions, funding for malaria control and elimination in Myanmar rose significantly. The University of Oxford was asked to support priority setting by assessing the relative cost-effectiveness of insecticide- treated bed nets and community health workers, particularly with respect to planning in the Myanmar Artemisinin Resistance Containment region along the east of the country. In the context of rising artemisinin resistance and, later, the goal of regional malaria elimination by 2030, reduction in malaria transmission was an important consideration in prioritising between interventions. A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken using both a static decision tree model and a dynamic disease transmission model. Supporting work towards this analysis included a systematic review of dynamic-transmission economic-evaluations and the creation of a data repository to collate governmental and non-governmental malaria case records. In addition, initially unplanned work on economic evaluation methodology was completed; identifying challenges in the application of cost utility analysis to this decision problem and proposing a framework for budget-based geographic resource allocation as an adaptation of standard methods. The results of this work include a tripling of the number of malaria diagnostic reports available between 2012 and 2014 (71% increase in Plasmodium falciparum cases) with this data showing a decrease in Plasmodium falciparum cases over time, alongside rising testing rates. Cost utility analysis found that, in general, malaria community health workers are more costly yet more effective than insecticide treated bed nets, though in both cases cost effectiveness is very much context dependent. Geographic allocation analyses using both static and dynamic models illustrate the potential for economic evaluation to provide both more detailed and more practical policy recommendations. Parameter uncertainty was explored in both cases. Some township recommendations were robust to both parameter uncertainty and model variation (structural uncertainty). Viewed through the lens of the Reference Case for Economic Evaluation in Low and Middle Income Countries (published during the course of this DPhil), budget-based geographic resource allocation largely adheres to the healthcare economic evaluation principles and offers improvements to dealing with heterogeneity and resource constraints. This DPhil recommends that Myanmar malaria policy is tailored to reflect geographic variation in intervention cost-effectiveness, rather than focusing on universal coverage, and illustrates a framework for economic evaluation to support budget-based geographic allocation.

Background: Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) has known adverse effects (AEs). Intermittent (INT) ADT may reduce AEs, improve quality of life, and lower costs compared to continuous (CONT) treatment. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of INT vs CONT ADT in men with advanced prostate cancer. Methods: A lifetime Markov individual simulation model was developed to evaluate the incremental cost per quality adjusted life month (QALM) of INT vs CONT ADT. Results: INT dominated CONT ADT (mean total costs $94,460 vs $109,431; mean total QALMs 47.0 vs 46.4). INT ADT resulted in less time on therapy (22.4 vs 56.8 months), fewer hip fractures (0.080 vs 0.093 per patient), and fewer total cases of sexual dysfunction (72.5% vs 87.0% of patients) and cardiovascular disease (38.7% vs 44.6% of patients). Conclusions: These results suggest INT ADT is cost-effective compared to CONT ADT however, differences were small. Additional research is required to confirm these findings.

Background: Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) has known adverse effects (AEs). Intermittent (INT) ADT may reduce AEs, improve quality of life, and lower costs compared to continuous (CONT) treatment. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of INT vs CONT ADT in men with advanced prostate cancer. Methods: A lifetime Markov individual simulation model was developed to evaluate the incremental cost per quality adjusted life month (QALM) of INT vs CONT ADT. Results: INT dominated CONT ADT (mean total costs $94,460 vs $109,431; mean total QALMs 47.0 vs 46.4). INT ADT resulted in less time on therapy (22.4 vs 56.8 months), fewer hip fractures (0.080 vs 0.093 per patient), and fewer total cases of sexual dysfunction (72.5% vs 87.0% of patients) and cardiovascular disease (38.7% vs 44.6% of patients). Conclusions: These results suggest INT ADT is cost-effective compared to CONT ADT however, differences were small. Additional research is required to confirm these findings.