When designing financial incentives for voluntary conservation of threatened habitats and ecosystems, we are faced with the problem that there is no single indicator for "biodiversity value". The value of a habitat depends on multiple factors such as habitat type, area, and spatial and temporal connectivity. Moreover, not only are there local trade-offs between these indicators, but land use changes at one location may also change the value of sites in the vicinity. This doctoral thesis analyzes the consequences of including trade-offs and interactions between sites in market-based conservation schemes. We ask the following questions: How can trade-offs between the survival of different species be quantified? How can spatial processes and temporal processes be included in market-based conservation, in particular the value of spatial and temporal connectivity? And how do underlying economic dynamics relate to the spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures in market-based conservation schemes?

Alternative grazing systems and pasture types for wool production in the south west of Western Australia were analysed using bio-economic modelling techniques in order to determine their relative productivity and profitability. After reviewing the experimental and modelling literature on perennial pastures and grazing systems, seven case studies of farmers were conducted in order to investigate the practical application of innovative grazing systems and use of perennial pastures. Together these case studies provided information for identifying relevant variables and for calibrating the modelling work which followed. The core of the work lies in a bio-economic model for investigating the comparative value of the three grazing systems and two pasture families mentioned above. A baseline scenario using currently available and reliable scientific data provides baseline results, after which a number of sensitivity analyses provide further insights using variations of four key parameters: persistence, heterogeneity, water soluble carbohydrates, and increased losses. Results show that perennial pastures are in the studied region more profitable than annual pastures. Under current baseline conditions, continuous grazing with perennial pastures is the most profitable enterprise, but this superiority is not robust under parameter variations defined by other scenarios. The more robust solution in terms of enterprise profitability is cell grazing with perennial pastures. The results indicate that intensive grazing systems such as cell grazing have the potential to substantially increase the profitability of grazing operations on perennial pasture. This result is an encouraging one in light of its implications for water uptake and salinity control. It means that economics and land care can go hand in hand, rather than be competitive. It is to be noted that it is the choice of the grazing system in combination with the pasture species, rather then the pasture species itself, that allows for such complementarity between economics and sustainable land use. This research shows that if farmers adopt practices such as cell grazing they may be able to increase the area that they can profitably plant to perennial pasture thus reducing the impacts of dryland salinity. This finding is consistent with the findings of the case studies where the farmers perceived that, provided grazing was planned, increasing the intensity of their grazing management and the perenniallity of their pastures would result in an increase in the profitability of their grazing operation. As a result this research helps to bridge a gap which has existed in this area of research, between the results of scientific research and those reported in practice.

The loss of utilisable rangeland in semi-arid areas results in huge economic and social costs worldwide. Only adaptive management strategies are able to cope with these systems, which are largely driven by unpredictable and stochastic rainfall. Additionally they are characterized by strong feedback mechanisms between economic and ecological factors. This study aims to contribute to the identification of basic principles for sustainable grazing management. The approach emphasizes learning from existing management systems through the use of ecological-economic modelling. Two apparently successful management systems in Namibia are used as a starting point for a broader analysis: the Gamis Karakul sheep farm and the land use system of the semi-nomadic Ova-Himba. Although the economic systems differ strongly, their management seems to have similarities: the importance of pasture resting and of adapting livestock numbers to available forage. This PhD thesis contributes substantial insights about the relevance and functioning of pasture resting for sustainable grazing management in semi-arid regions. Assessment of the two case studies leads to the hypothesis that resting in the rainy season, particularly during wet years, is fundamental for ensuring pasture productivity under low regeneration potential of the vegetation. The thesis highlights that resting during wet years acts as a risk reducing strategy. Additionally, the study reveals that access to economic risk management strategies, such as rain-index-insurance, may change farmer´s behaviour towards less conservative strategies. The used approach - learning from existing apparently successful grazing strategies by ecological-economic modelling - offers a powerful tool for tackling new questions related to global change. The scope and the limits for generalizing the key factors discovered for sustainable grazing management can be easily detected under changing ecological, climatic and economic conditions.

The aim of this study is to explore ways to maximise the economic returns of road infrastructure investment. In order to achieve this objective, the study was divided into five parts involving the following: analysing the nature of road infrastructure, determining the relationship between road infrastructure investment and economic development, considering aspects of economic modelling, developing a formula of road investment, and refocusing road investment practices. In the first part the characteristics of road infrastructure are examined and the demand and supply approaches to road investment outlined. The focus is on the balanced approach versus the unbalanced approach to infrastructure investment. The second part analyses the causal relationship between road investment and economic development. Four components are highlighted, namely the investment component, the network-performance component, the transport economic component and the economic development component. The third part analyses the applicability of modelling techniques. In the fifth part, the formula of road investment and economic development is focused on four markets. Finally, it is argued that road infrastructure investment must be refocused. The following was found: Road infrastructure investment must be demand led. This is because of the characteristics of roads, namely their indivisibility, long gestation period, lumpiness and high cost. Road infrastructure investment can only realise economic development if the four causality components are complied with simultaneously. Input-output modelling is preferred in South Africa. The modelling strategy developed in this study is recommended for transport economic studies. The probability of economic returns of road infrastructure investment is a function of the real estate market, the land development market, the urban economic market and the infrastructure market. An agenda for reform in the road investment industry was also proposed. The study clearly identifies the relationship between road infrastructure investment and economic development, and the proposed formula is an appropriate tool for a first-order priority system. / Transport Economics, Logistics and Tourism / D. Com. (Transport Economics)

L’objectif général de la thèse est de modéliser les principaux processus biologiques et économiques régissant des pêcheries multi-espèces et multi-flottilles afin de proposer des stratégies viables pour la gestion durable de ces pêcheries mixtes, dans un contexte stochastique et multiobjectif. Plus spécifiquement, cette thèse utilise des analyses de co-viabilité stochastique pour étudier les arbitrages entre des objectifs contradictoires de gestion (conservation, et viabilité économique et sociale) des pêcheries mixtes. Deux pêcheries mixtes sont analysées dans cette thèse : la pêcherie française mixte démersale du golfe de Gascogne et la pêcherie crevettière australienne du Nord (NPF). Ces deux pêcheries sont multi-espèces, et utilisent des stratégies multiples de pêche, induisant des impacts directs et indirects sur les écosystèmes. Cette thèse propose une application de la co-viabilité stochastique à ces deux cas, en prenant en compte leur histoire, leur contexte socio-politique et les différences dans les stratégies et objectifs de gestion. Les résultats suggèrent que le status quo peut être considéré comme une stratégie biologiquement durable mais socio économiquement à risque dans les deux pêcheries (ainsi qu’à risque écologique dans le cas de la pêcherie australienne). Les simulations réalisées pour le golfe de Gascogne permettent de comparer les arbitrages associés à différentes réductions de capacités par flottille et de montrer qu’il existe des solutions de gestion permettant la co-viabilité du système (viabilité biologique des différentes espèces considérées et viabilité socio-économique des flottilles) contrairement à des stratégies de gestion mono-spécifiques ou basées sur la maximisation de la rente. Dans la pêcherie crevettière australienne, l’analyse montre que les stratégies de diversification permettent de limiter le risque économique contrairement aux stratégies plus spécialisées. / Empirical evidence and the theoretical literature both point to stock sustainability and the protection of marine biodiversity as important fisheries management issues. Decision-support tools are increasingly required to operationalize the ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management. These tools need to integrate (i) ecological and socio-economic drivers of changes in fisheries and ecosystems; (ii) complex dynamics; (iii) deal with various sources of uncertainty; and (iv) incorporate multiple, rather than single objectives. The stochastic co-viability approach addresses the trade-offs associated with balancing ecological, economic and social objectives throughout time, and takes into account the complexity and uncertainty of the dynamic interactions which characterize exploited ecosystems and biodiversity. This thesis proposes an application of this co-viability approach to the sustainable management of mixed fisheries, using two contrasting case studies: the French Bay of Biscay (BoB) demersal mixed fishery and the Australian Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF). Both fisheries entail direct and indirect impacts on mixed species communities while also generating large economic returns. Their sustainability is therefore a major societal concern. A dynamic bio-economic modelling approach is used to capture the key biological and economic processes governing these fisheries, combining age- (BoB) or size- (NPF) structured models of multiple species with recruitment uncertainty, and multiple fleets (BoB) or fishing strategies (NPF). Economic uncertainties relating to input and output prices are also considered. The bioeconomic models are used to investigate how the fisheries can operate within a set of constraints relating to the preservation of Spawning Stock Biomasses (BoB) or Spawning Stock Size Indices (NPF) of a set of key target species, maintenance of the economic profitability of various fleets (BoB) or the fishery as a whole (NPF), and limitation of fishing impacts on the broader biodiversity (NPF), under a range of alternative scenarios and management strategies. Results suggest that under a status quo strategy both fisheries can be considered as biologically sustainable, while socio-economically (and ecologically in the NPF case) at risk. Despite very different management contexts and objectives, viable management strategies suggest a reduction in the number of vessels in both cases. The BoB simulations allow comparison of the trade-offs associated with different allocations of this decrease across fleets. Notably, co-viability management strategies entail a more equitable allocation of effort reductions compared to strategies aiming at maximizing economic yield. In the NPF, species catch diversification strategies are shown to perform well in controlling the levels of economic risk, by contrast with more specialized fishing strategies. Furthermore analyses emphasize the importance to the fishing industry of balancing global economic performance with inter-annual economic variability. Promising future developments based on this research involve the incorporation of a broader set of objectives including social dimensions, as well as the integration of ecological interactions, to better address the needs of ecosystem-based approaches to the sustainable harvesting of marine biodiversity.

Die vermiedene tropische Entwaldung und zusätzliche Aufforstungen sind von zentraler Bedeutung für die Klimawandelvermeidung, üben aber zusätzlichen Druck auf die globalen Landressourcen zur Produktion von Nahrungsgütern, Futtermittel, Fasern, Bioenergie und Rundholz dar. Die Ziele der Studie beziehen sich auf die Analyse der Verzichtskosten in der Land- und Forstwirtschaft sowie das Potential zur Klimawandelvermeidung in globalen Wäldern durch normative und marktbasierte Klimaschutzprogramme. Das globale ökonomische Landnutzungsmodell ''Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment'' (MAgPIE) wurde um eine konsistente Landnutzungsdatenbank und den Forstsektor erweitert. Es simuliert die räumlich-explizite Landnutzung und deren Änderungen während die Kosten land- und forstwirtschaftlicher Produktion unter gegebener Nachfrage nach Gütern geschätzt werden. Szenarien zu Klimaschutzmaßnahmen werden verglichen mit Referenzszenarien über Zeithorizonte bis zum Jahr 2100. Die Ergebnisse verweisen auf ein begrenztes Mitigationspotential normativen tropischen Waldschutzes zu geringen zusätzlichen Kosten in der Landwirtschaft. Lateinamerika profitiert von ausreichenden Landreserven und geringem Anstieg in der Güternachfrage und geringer Referenzentwaldung. Die Verlagerung von Emissionen durch regionalen Waldschutz hat Auswirkungen auf die sektoralen Produktionskosten und verringert das globale ökonomische Potential. Die Schlussfolgerungen betreffen 1) den Bedarf an substantieller Ertragssteigerung in Sub-Sahara Afrika als Voraussetzung für die erfolgreiche Umsetzung vermiedener Entwaldung, 2) die erhöhte Gefahr der Verlagerung von Emissionen aus Entwaldung durch die Umsetzung regionaler Klimaschutzprogramme und der Liberalisierung des Holzhandels, 3) das hohe ökonomische Potential integrierter Klimaschutzprogramme zu moderaten Verzichtskosten, sowie 4) die Notwendigkeit zusätzlicher Forschung bezüglich der Unsicherheiten in Parametern und Modellprozessen. / Avoiding tropical deforestation and additional afforestation are of primary importance for climate change mitigation but exert additional pressure on global land resources for the production of food, feed, fibre, bioenergy and timber. The study objectives relate to the analysis of the foregone economic benefits, the opportunity costs, in agriculture and forestry and the climate change mitigation potential of global forests in normative and market-based programmes. The global economic ‘Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment'' (MAgPIE) has been extended by a consistent land use database and the forestry sector. It simulates spatially-explicit land use and land use changes while estimating the costs of production in agriculture and forestry to satisfy a prescribed demand. Climate change mitigation scenarios are contrasted to baselines for time horizons up to the year 2100. The results show the limited mitigation potential of normative forest conservation in tropical regions at low additional costs in agriculture. Latin America benefits from sufficient land endowments and low increases in crop demand leading to relatively low baseline deforestation. The displacement of carbon emissions between regions impacts the regional agriculture and forestry production costs and reduces the global economic potential. The conclusions pertain to the 1) need for high rates of yield increase in Sub-Saharan Africa as a precondition for successfully avoided deforestation, 2) increased threat of regional carbon emission leakage from implementing mitigation programmes and liberalized trade of timber, 3) high economic potential of climate change mitigation from integrating afforestation and avoided deforestation at moderate costs, and 4) additional research needs to account for significant uncertainties from growth and cost parameters and model processes.

The aim of this study is to explore ways to maximise the economic returns of road infrastructure investment. In order to achieve this objective, the study was divided into five parts involving the following: analysing the nature of road infrastructure, determining the relationship between road infrastructure investment and economic development, considering aspects of economic modelling, developing a formula of road investment, and refocusing road investment practices. In the first part the characteristics of road infrastructure are examined and the demand and supply approaches to road investment outlined. The focus is on the balanced approach versus the unbalanced approach to infrastructure investment. The second part analyses the causal relationship between road investment and economic development. Four components are highlighted, namely the investment component, the network-performance component, the transport economic component and the economic development component. The third part analyses the applicability of modelling techniques. In the fifth part, the formula of road investment and economic development is focused on four markets. Finally, it is argued that road infrastructure investment must be refocused. The following was found: Road infrastructure investment must be demand led. This is because of the characteristics of roads, namely their indivisibility, long gestation period, lumpiness and high cost. Road infrastructure investment can only realise economic development if the four causality components are complied with simultaneously. Input-output modelling is preferred in South Africa. The modelling strategy developed in this study is recommended for transport economic studies. The probability of economic returns of road infrastructure investment is a function of the real estate market, the land development market, the urban economic market and the infrastructure market. An agenda for reform in the road investment industry was also proposed. The study clearly identifies the relationship between road infrastructure investment and economic development, and the proposed formula is an appropriate tool for a first-order priority system. / Transport Economics, Logistics and Tourism / D. Com. (Transport Economics)

En France, où les droits de pêches ne sont pas transférables, la gestion des quotas de pêche est essentiellement déléguée aux organisations de producteurs (OP), lesquelles se voient attribuer des allocations collectives et sont responsables de la gestion des possibilités de pêche de leurs adhérents. On peut ainsi s’interroger sur la manière dont la présence des OP au sein des institutions peut permettre d’améliorer les performances écologiques,économiques et sociales de la gestion des pêches en comparaison avec d’autres formes institutionnelles telles que les systèmes de quotas individuels transférables (QIT). Les recherches de thèse, comprenant une partie théorique et s’appuyant sur le cas de la pêcherie de sole du golfe de Gascogne pour les applications empiriques,sont organisées autour des questions suivantes : (1) Par quels mécanismes les OP peuvent-elles permettre d’améliorer le respect des réglementations et influencer l’émergence de normes sociales ? (2) Quels sont les effets redistributifs de la gestion des quotas par les OP ? (3) Comment les mécanismes de gestion des quotas par les OP peuvent-ils être intégrés dans la modélisation bio-économique pour l’évaluation d’impact de scénarios de gestion ? Les analyses développées établissent l’intérêt de prendre en compte des contraintes induites par différents arrangements institutionnels et les résultats sont notamment examinés au regard des trois dimensions (écologique, économique et sociale) nécessaires à la gestion durable des pêches. Les compromis entre ces différentes dimensions sont mis en évidence dans le cadre de scénarios prospectifs visant une meilleure compréhension des enjeux liés à la gestion des pêches. / In France, where fishing rights are non-transferable, the management of fishing quotas is essentially delegated to producer organizations (POs). POs are granted collective allocations based on the aggregate fishing rights of their members and are then responsible for managing their fishing opportunities. The goal of this research, which contains theoretical developments as well as empirical analyses applied to the Bay of Biscay sole fishery, is to determine how outcomes of fisheries management are altered by the presence of POs within institutions as compared to alternative governance systems such as individual transferable quotas (ITQs). This dissertation notably brings together bio-economic approaches and institutional analyses to better anticipate the ecological, economic and social impacts of potential governance options. The research questions are the following: (1) What mechanisms could ensure a high level of compliance and what are the potential gains of placing the POs between the regulator and the fishermen? (2) What are the distributional effects of catch share management by POs? (3) What is the added value of integrating institutional arrangements involving POs into bio-economic modelling for the impact assessment of catch share management options? The analyses that were developed establish the ability of institutional design to influence outcomes in catch share systems in terms of compliance, distribution, and ecological-socioeconomic trade-offs achieved by alternative management options.

Tesis por compendio / [ES] El brote de Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 representó un reto para la economía, la vida social y los servicios sanitarios. Justo cuando más se necesitaba la información para la planificación económica, los servicios de vigilancia y notificación no fueron capaces de ofrecer, a pesar de esfuerzos extraordinarios, datos consistentes, como así reconocieron los propios orga-nismos gubernamentales. Esta tesis incluye tres artículos publicados durante los brotes de COVID-19 y una investi-gación adicional fuera del conjunto de publicaciones. La investigación tiene como objetivo general proporcionar información a través de estimaciones alternativas. Para ello se han utilizado varias metodologías, entre ellas los modelos matemáticos de predicción epidemio-lógica, el Mejor Ajuste de Valores Relacionados (BARV), los análisis de diferentes encues-tas y la metodología bibliométrica, aprovechando u ofreciendo alternativas a los métodos bayesianos más complejos, las simulaciones de Monte Carlo o las cadenas de Markov, aun-que algunos datos obtenidos se apoyan parcialmente en estas metodologías. Cada artículo aborda un tema esencial relacionado con la pandemia COVID-19. La primera publicación se centra en los datos epidemiológicos básicos. Se refiere al primer brote de COVID-19, estimando su duración, incidencia, prevalencia, tasa de fallecimientos sobre infectados (IFR) y tasa de fallecimientos sobre casos (confirmados) (CFR). Como dato destacado de este trabajo, se previó que la seroprevalencia era demasiado baja para que la inmunidad de rebaño desempeñara algún papel. Aunque el valor obtenido fue aproxima-damente un 2% inferior al que demostró posteriormente un estudio poblacional (Instituto Carlos III), la conclusión sobre la inmunidad de rebaño no cambió, y los resultados confir-maron la idoneidad del enfoque. La segunda publicación se centró en las cuestiones legales y las noticias falsas, analizando la reticencia de la población a vacunarse, el impacto de las falsas noticas en estos comporta-mientos, las posibilidades legales de hacer obligatoria la vacuna y las posibles acciones contra los profesionales de la salud que publican noticias falsas. La principal conclusión fue que, aunque se podría encontrar una vía legal para la obligatoriedad de la vacunación, y para la persecución gubernamental de las noticias falsas, la opinión ciudadana parece prefe-rir que la administración no tome la iniciativa, por lo que se recomienda promover y fomen-tar la concienciación ciudadana. La tercera publicación presentó un modelo matemático simplificado para la estimación del coste-efectividad de la vacuna contra la COVID-19. Se actualizan los datos de dos fechas para la estimación de los costes directos para el sistema sanitario debidos a la COVID-19, computando el coste por ciudadano y por Producto Interior Bruto (PIB), así como el coste-efectividad de la vacuna. La estimó razón de coste-efectividad incremental (RCEI) para dos dosis por persona a un coste de 30 euros cada dosis (incluida la administración). Asumien-do al 70% de efectividad y con el 70% de la población vacunada resultó ser de 5.132 euros (4.926 - 5.276) por año de vida ajustado a calidad (AVAC) ganado (a 17 de febrero de 2021). Una cifra que desciende cada día de pandemia activa. Se incluyó una investigación adicional, no incorporada en el conjunto de artículos, centrada en los recursos humanos y la educación. Se analizaron los temas preocupan al personal de primera línea, es decir, a la enfermería, y cómo la pandemia ha afectado a sus publicaciones científicas, como índice de los cambios en el clima laboral que sufre este colectivo. Median-te un estudio bibliométrico comparativo entre las publicaciones de 2019 y 2020, se analizó el cambio de temas y ámbitos como reflejo del impacto del COVID-19 en el personal de enfermería. Así se comprobó que, en los ámbitos de enfermería de atención especializada, y sobre todo e / [CA] El brot de Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 va representar un repte per a l'economia, la vida soci-al i els serveis sanitaris. Quan més es necessitava la informació per a la planificació econò-mica, malgrat esforços extraordinaris, els serveis de vigilància i notificació no van ser capa-ços d'oferir dades consistents, com així van reconèixer els mateixos organismes governa-mentals. Aquesta tesi inclou tres articles publicats durant els brots de COVID-19 i una investigació addicional fora del conjunt de publicacions. La investigació té com a objectiu general pro-porcionar informació a través d'estimacions alternatives. Per a això s'han utilitzat diverses metodologies, entre elles els models matemàtics de predicció epidemiològica, el Millor Ajust de Valors Relacionats (BARV), les anàlisis de diferents enquestes i la metodologia bibliomètrica, aprofitant o oferint opcions alternatives als mètodes bayesians més comple-xos, les simulacions de Montecarlo o les cadenes de Markov, tot i que algunes dades obtin-gudes es recolzen parcialment en aquestes metodologies. Cada article aborda un tema essen-cial relacionat amb la pandèmia COVID-19. La primera publicació se centra en les dades epidemiològiques bàsiques. Es refereix al pri-mer brot de COVID-19, calculant la seua durada, incidència, prevalença, taxa de defuncions sobre infectats (IFR) i taxa de defuncions sobre casos (confirmats) (CFR). Com a dada des-tacada d'aquest treball, es va preveure que la seroprevalença era massa baixa perquè la im-munitat de ramat exercirà algun paper. Tot i que el valor obtingut va ser aproximadament un 2% inferior al demostrat posteriorment en un estudi poblacional (Institut Carles III), la conclusió sobre la immunitat de ramat no va canviar, i els resultats van confirmar la idoneï-tat de l'enfocament. La segona publicació es va centrar en les qüestions legals i les notícies falses, analitzant la reticència de la població a vacunar-se, l'impacte de les falses notícies en aquests comporta-ments, les possibilitats legals de fer obligatòria la vacuna i les possibles accions contra els professionals de la salut que publiquen notícies falses. La principal conclusió va ser que, tot i que es podria trobar una via legal per l'obligatorietat de la vacunació, i per la persecució governamental de les notícies falses, l'opinió ciutadana sembla preferir que l'administració no prenga la iniciativa, per la qual cosa es recomana promoure i fomentar la conscienciació ciutadana. La tercera publicació va presentar un model matemàtic simplificat per a l'estimació del cost-efectivitat de la vacuna contra la COVID-19. S'actualitzen les dades de dues dates per a l'estimació dels costos directes per al sistema sanitari deguts a la COVID-19, computant el cost per ciutadà i per Producte Interior Brut (PIB), així com el cost-efectivitat de la vacuna. La va estimar raó de cost-efectivitat incremental (RCEI) per dues dosis per persona a un cost de 30 euros cada dosi (inclosa l'administració). Assumint al 70% d'efectivitat i amb el 70% de la població vacunada va resultar ser de 5.132 euros (4.926 - 5.276) per any de vida ajustat a qualitat (AVAQ) (a 17 de febrer de 2021). Una xifra que descendeix cada dia de pandèmia activa. Es va afegir una investigació addicional, no inclosa en el conjunt d'articles, centrada en els recursos humans i l'educació. Es van analitzar els temes que preocupen al personal de pri-mera línia, és a dir, a la infermeria, i com la pandèmia ha afectat les seues publicacions cien-tífiques, com a índex dels canvis en el clima laboral que pateix aquest col·lectiu. Mitjançant un estudi bibliomètric comparatiu entre les publicacions de 2019 i 2020, es va analitzar el canvi de temes i camps com a reflex de l'impacte del COVID-19 en el personal d'infermeria. Així es va comprovar que en els àmbits d'infermeria d'atenció especialitzada, i sobretot en atenció primària, els principals problemes detectat / [EN] The SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus outbreak has posed a challenge to the economy, social life, and health services. Just when information was most needed for economic planning, moni-toring, and reporting services were unable, despite extraordinary efforts to provide con-sistent data, as government agencies themselves acknowledged. This thesis includes three articles published during the COVID-19 outbreaks and additional research outside the publication set. The overall aim of the research is to provide infor-mation through alternative estimates. Several methodologies have been used, including mathematical models for epidemiological prediction, Best Adjustment of Related Values (BARV), analyses of different surveys and bibliometric methodology, taking advantage of or offering an alternative to, more complex options such as Bayesian methods, Monte Carlo simulations or Markov chains, although some data obtained are partially supported by these methodologies. Each article addresses a key issue related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The first publication focuses on basic epidemiological data. It refers to the first outbreak of COVID-19, estimating its duration, incidence, prevalence, Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and Case Fatality Rate (CFR). As a highlight of this work, the seroprevalence was anticipated to be too low for herd immunity to play a role. Although the value obtained was approximate-ly 2% lower than that subsequently demonstrated by a population-based study (Instituto Carlos III), the conclusion on herd immunity remained unchanged, and the results con-firmed the appropriateness of the approach. The second publication focuses on legal issues and fake news, analysing reluctance to be vaccinated in the population, the impact of fake news on these behaviours, the legal possi-bilities of making vaccination mandatory, and possible actions against health professionals who publish fake news. The main conclusion was that, although a legal avenue could be found for mandatory vaccination and for governmental prosecution of fake news, public opinion seems to prefer that the authorities do not take the initiative, therefore it recom-mends promoting and encouraging public awareness. The third publication presented a simplified mathematical model for estimating the cost-effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine. Data from two dates were obtained for the estimation of the direct costs to the health system due to COVID-19, computing the cost per citizen and per Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as well as the cost-effectiveness of the vaccine. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for two doses per person at a cost of 30 euros per dose (including administration). Assuming 70% effectiveness and with 70% of the population vaccinated, it was found to be 5,132 euros (4,926 - 5,276) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained (as of 17 February 2021). The figure decreases with each day of the active pandemic. Additional research not included in the set of articles focuses on human resources and education. It analyses the concerns of frontline staff, i.e., nurses, and how the pandemic has affected their scientific publications, as an index of the changes in the work climate experienced by this group. Through a comparative bibliometric study of publications in 2019 and 2020, the change in topics and fields was analysed, as a reflection of the impact of COVID-19 on nursing staff. It was found that in the fields of specialised care nursing and above all in primary care, the main problems detected are those related to protective measures and psychological factors, while the publications of nursing staff in nursing homes showed an increase in topics related to management and organisation. Finally, some aspects of the implementation of telecommuting and distance learning have been reviewed. Some of the boosts in this field resulting from the pandemic could be very useful and remain in the future, such as the incorporation of telewo / Marco Franco, JE. (2021). What have we learned from the economic impact of the Covid-19 outbreak? Critical analysis of economic factors and recommendations for the future [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/174883 / TESIS / Compendio