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The diploma thesis Interpretation of Pre-election Polls in The Czech Printed Dailies studyies the ways in which media portrays data from election polls as part of thier news service. The thesis draws from theories of media effects, the research of which indicates a possible influence of media content on the formation of public opinion or even voting behaviour. For this reason, it maz be expected that the media present data in line with certain standards. However, in the Czech Republic, there is no code of conduct that would formulate such requirements. This leads to an ongoing struggle between the research agencies who supply such data and the media who present it to the public, where each party judges the content's quality by different measures. Some of the often criticised errors include misinterpretation of data and an insufficient explanation of the research's background. This paper uses quantitative content analysis to examine 154 articles from Czech printed journals across the three pre-election periods (2010, 2013, 2017) with the aim of determining in which form the results of pre- election polls are presented, and if all necessary data are added. The final analysis looks at the data as a whole as well as examining the trendlines during the studied time period. In conclusion, it evaluates...

Diploma thesis Journalists and Public Opinion Polls: Media Representation of Public Opinion in the case of the First Direct Presidental Election in Czech Republic deals with an issue of media representation of public opinion polls and journalists' attitudes towards these polls. From the theoretical point of view this thesis focuses on definition of concepts such as public and public opinion, examination of how these concepts are approached within public opinion polls and investigation of possible influence of mediated public opinion polls on recipient of media messages. The main part of this thesis describes results of academic studies that address an issue of media coverage of pre-election polls. Analytic part is divided into two parts. The first part deals with media content analysis, the second one deals with journalists' attitudes towards polls. We can conclude that interviewed journalists are rather skeptical about public opinion polls while this scepticism is not followed by critical interpretation of pre-election poll results. This conclusion rises a question why journalists' sceptical attitude doesn't correspond with media coverage of polls that was found rather uncritical. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

Submitted by Programa de Pós-Graduação em Mídia e Cotidiano (ppgmc@vm.uff.br) on 2017-09-06T17:18:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação final-1.pdf: 1719729 bytes, checksum: a4c867c2d6cbc95a83abb82a190d90b6 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Jussara Moore (jussaramoore@id.uff.br) on 2017-09-22T12:44:21Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação final-1.pdf: 1719729 bytes, checksum: a4c867c2d6cbc95a83abb82a190d90b6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-22T12:44:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação final-1.pdf: 1719729 bytes, checksum: a4c867c2d6cbc95a83abb82a190d90b6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-27 / Este trabalho procura analisar os diferentes enquadramentos (ENTMAN, 1993) das pesquisas eleitorais publicadas pelo jornal O Globo durante as eleições presidenciais no Brasil em 2014 (entre os meses de agosto e outubro). O estudo baseia-se em uma análise de conteúdo, e sua amostra inclui notícias que divulgam ou simplesmente mencionam os resultados das pesquisas eleitorais. Esta pesquisa concentra-se no jornal O Globo porque representa uma das maiores e mais poderosas corporações de mídia privada do país. O objetivo deste trabalho é entender como esse jornal e seus jornalistas utilizam as pesquisas eleitorais para construir uma narrativa política e, para aprofundar esse debate, foi importante compreender o que torna as pesquisas de intenção de voto dignas de notícia, procurando entender a natureza atual do trabalho jornalístico (TRAQUINA, 2013). Para analisar isso, também foram realizadas entrevistas em profundidade com jornalistas políticos que trabalham para O Globo e para outras fontes de notícias, bem como o presidente do TSE – Tribunal Superior Eleitoral – à época, ministro José Antonio Dias Toffoli. / This work seeks to analyse the different framings (ENTMAN, 1993) of election polls in print news published by O Globo during the presidential elections in Brazil in 2014 (between the months of August and October). The study draws from a content analysis and its sample includes news which either disseminate or simply mention the results of election polls. I have chosen to focus on the newspaper O Globo because this represents one of the largest and most powerful private media corporations in the country. The aim of this work is to understand the ways in which this particular newspaper and its journalists make use of election polls to construct a political narrative, questioning to what extent such uses might be consistent with the role of journalism in a democratic society. Indeed, here, I delve into some of these debates by examining what makes opinion polls newsworthy (TRAQUINA, 2013) in this context and by offering insights on the current nature of journalistic work and on how the latter can shape journalists’ uses of numbers in the process of news construction. In order to analyse this, I have also conducted in-depth interviews with political journalists who work for O Globo and other news outlets, as the president of Electoral Court, during the presidential campaign of 2014, the minister José Antonio Dias Toffoli.

This diploma thesis deals with examination of research activities of selected research organizations regarding the historically first direct elections of the president of the Czech Republic. This is done with the use of pre-election surveys realized in connection with presidential elections in the United States of America. The thesis ponders whether the phenomenon of direct elections will be positively accepted not only by Czech Citizen but also by local research organizations. The aim of the presented diploma thesis is the evaluation of Czech presidential surveys and their main methods through the comparison with models from the United States of America. The subsidiary goal is the investigation of prevailing traditions in the Czech Republic and the lack of resources which cause resistance against potential research development in the Czech Republic. At last but not least the thesis evaluates how presidential polls might influence the public opinion. This thesis is divided into five chapters. The first one investigates the election system and polls in the Czech Republic. Next chapter deals with the election system and polls in the United States of America. Chapter three focuses on the comparison of research approaches in the Czech Republic and the United States of America. The fourth chapter presents the...

The diploma thesis "Estimation of the election results by respondents and its usage" discuss the methods of predicting the election results based on election expectations of individuals and shows how people form their expectations and how exact these expectations are. First short summary of existing methods of election results predictions and its limitations is presented - it also deals with pre-election surveys and its ambitions to predict the election results. The rest of the thesis focuses only on the prediction of the election results based on election expectations of individuals: prediction markets and aggregated estimations of respondents. Concept Wisdom of Crowds, from which both approaches originate, is presented together with concrete examples of application of the predictions based on opinions of prediction markets participants and respondents of the pre-election surveys. Results of the foreign studies confirm that the prediction markets predict the election results very well and with higher accuracy than the pre-election surveys. Current studies also positively evaluate the estimation of the election results done by respondents. Respondents are usually able to predict the election results, even several weeks before the elections. Last part of the thesis is based on my own quantitative...

Bibliographic record PROKOP, Daniel. (2012). Election polls in the Czech Republic: Methodological Optimization. Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institut of Sociological Studies. Thesis academic consultant: Mgr. Jindřich Krejčí, Ph.D. Abstract The thesis focuses on the election-polls and prediction of election results in the Czech Republic. Using data of research company MEDIAN s.r.o. from face-to-face (CAPI) and telephone interviewing (CATI) in election year 2010 it examines possibilities of methodological optimizations which could lead to reducing systematic bias and discrepancies of pre-election polls the election results. In particular, it discusses these methodological solutions: mix-mode data collection (combination of CATI and CAPI), data weighting focused on specific factors correlated with voting behavior, including preferences of undecided voters, prediction of the respondents' participation in elections, election-polls results time-series smoothing. Based on these analyses the thesis tries to articulate general findings which could be fruitful in discussion about Czech election-polls and their methodology in general. In the thesis, basic and advanced statistic methods (CART, exponential smoothing, etc.) are being used to achieve given research goals. Keywords: election...