Sweden has the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions without increasing emissions abroad. This study uses consumption-based emissions data from the PRINCE-project to show where emissions from Swedish consumption take place and how large the share of fossil fuel emissions is. Scenarios are made to compare the emission reductions from reducing the use of fossil fuels to the potential for emission reductions by changes in consumption patterns for three main consumption groups, food, buildings &amp; construction, and transport. These three consumption groups represent 67 % of the Swedish consumption-based emissions. The results show that Sweden has limited though still significant impact on consumption-based emissions since most emissions take place outside Sweden. For the three main consumption groups, it is shown that changing consumption patterns has the same potential for reducing the emissions than completely ending the use of fossil fuels in Sweden. Large differences exist between the consumption groups. Ending the use of fossil fuels in Sweden would reduce emissions from food by 21 %, from buildings &amp; construction by 50 % and from transport by 27 %. It can be concluded that if Sweden wants to lower their emissions from consumption, it is important to take measures at both national and international level. Focusing on both reducing fossil fuel use as well as changes in consumption patterns prove to be equally important and should be taken simultaneously to achieve the largest and fastest emissions reductions. / <p>2020-06-13</p>

Despite climate change being an increasingly important focus of scientific and policy discourse and against a backdrop of rising greenhouse gas emissions, the Russian government has, thus far, failed to commit to an ambitious emission reduction target based on the latest science. For Russia to develop informed, internally consistent and scientifically literate policies, it is important to assess the scale of the challenge and explore implications of different levels of mitigation. To this end, the thesis derives Russia's cumulative emission budgets and generates associated low-carbon pathways in the context of both a re-developing economy and international climate change objectives (in particular, keeping the global mean temperature increase below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels). This thesis draws on several disciplines, bringing together bottom-up energy system modelling from engineering and physical sciences, as well as stakeholder and expert interviews from social sciences. The principal methodological approach used here is backcasting, with a number of stakeholder interviews providing a 'reality check' for the scenarios. Given the global delay in acting on climate change, the contextual 2°C scenarios generated are ambitious and extremely challenging. With significant changes on both demand and supply sides, an annual post-peak emission reduction rate of at least 10% is required to meet the cumulative budget constraint; this despite the dramatic fall in Russia's emissions in the 1990s. Such radical reduction rates are well in excess of anything achieved or, indeed, deemed possible within existing mitigation policies and integrated assessment models - either in Russia or in any other part of the world. The necessary emission reductions would involve significant material changes to the energy system. Even with early reductions, to attain a low-carbon energy system in 2050 in accordance with the 2°C cumulative emission constraint, all of the available 'mature' technological options would need to be employed. In particular, short-term mitigation can be facilitated by Russia's large energy efficiency potential and a significant biomass potential. In the long term, mitigation could draw on the country's considerable renewable energy resources. If the peak in Russia's emissions is delayed until 2020-2025, staying within a national 2°C budget constraint will require a rapid and widespread deployment of currently speculative negative-emission technologies. Whilst the suggested mitigation pathways with emissions peaking early are demanding, they are potentially less challenging and destabilising than failing to mitigate and subsequently adapting to climate change impacts of a 6-16°C temperature rise across Russia. The precautionary principle, together with the multiple uncertainties associated with negative emissions, would suggest that starting the decarbonisation process early is critical. Along with other big emitters, Russia has a pivotal role in influencing the future direction of international climate change mitigation and adaptation. Not only is Russia a major emitter of greenhouse gases and a global supplier of fossil fuels, but also it remains a major force in geopolitics, and its diverse territory is both vulnerable and resilient to the impacts of climate change. This unique confluence of circumstances leaves Russia with a challenging dilemma. The country can choose to acquiesce to short-term political and economic considerations, adopt weak mitigation measures and face potentially devastating impacts. Or it can apply its considerable attributes and powers to instigate an epoch of national and global action to secure a low-carbon and climate-resilient future. Whilst the former will see Russia subsumed into the international malaise on climate change, the latter may both quench the nation's "thirst for greatness" and fill the void of climate leadership.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar a sensibilidade da formação do ozônio troposférico às emissões veiculares de compostos orgânicos voláteis (COVs) e NOx na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP). Essa avaliação foi realizada através de modelagem numérica com modelo de qualidade do ar fotoquímico tridimensional. Para a determinação da especiação dos COVs veiculares foram realizadas duas campanhas intensivas de medidas em túneis da cidade de São Paulo, constituindo portanto em um esforço na melhoria do inventário de emissões da RMSP. Das medidas de concentração dos COVs, CO, NOx e SO2 foram calculados fatores de emissão e com base na relação entre as concentrações dos COVs emitidos pela exaustão veicular, juntamente com informações obtidas previamente da composição do combustível líquido e das emissões evaporativas foi construído um inventário dos COVs emitidos pela gasolina, álcool e diesel na RMSP, utilizado nas simulações de qualidade do ar. Foram realizadas simulações de referência utilizando o modelo fotoquímico densenvolvido no Caltech Institute of Technology (CIT) e Carnegie Mellon University, e as concentrações obtidas das simulações foram comparadas às concentrações observadas pela rede de monitoramento da Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB) para três períodos distintos, em termos dos níveis de poluição e condições meteorológicas: 22-24 de agosto de 2000; 13-15 de março de 2000 e 06-10 de setembro de 2004. Com base nas simulações de referência foram calculados os potenciais de formação de ozônio para 24 espécies através do cálculo de métricas de reatividade e também realizada a análise da sensibilidade da formação do ozônio às emissões de COVs, NOx, CO e de cada COV individualmente para os três períodos. Da avaliação da análise de sensibilidade do ozônio às emissões pôde-se verificar que o ozônio foi altamente sensível às emissões dos COVs nos três períodos estudados e portanto, o controle da emissão dos COVs é o mais efetivo para o controle do ozônio na RMSP. Dentre os COVs analisados as espécies representadas por ARO2 (aromáticos 2), OLE1 (olefinas 1), OLE2 (olefinas 2), ETHE (eteno) e HCHO (formaldeído) foram as cinco às quais o ozônio (medido em termos de seu potencial de formação e emissão) apresentou maior sensibilidade constituindo-se nas mais relevantes. Adicionalmente, foram avaliados os impactos de diferentes cenários de uso de gasolinas reformuladas nas concentrações de ozônio em todo o domínio em relação ao cenário atual de referência. A máxima resposta do ozônio às reduções de emissão foi obtida após 3 dias do início do controle. Os cenários 1 (redução de 11,1% das frações de olefinas, aromáticos e benzeno da gasolina) e 2 (redução de 20,0% das frações de olefinas, aromáticos e benzeno da gasolina) que refletem as propostas de reformulação da gasolina para 2007 e 2009 resultaram em reduções das concentrações de ozônio, mas insuficientes para a redução para abaixo do padrão de qualidade do ar de ozônio. / The main goal of this work was the study of the ozone sensitivity to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NOx emitted by vehicles in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP), using as tool the numerical modeling. Two intensive campaigns in-tunnel of São Paulo city were performed as an effort to improve the MASP emission inventory. From concentrations measurements of VOCs, CO, NOx and SO2 they were calculated emission factors and based on the relation among the VOCs emitted by exhaust, and also together with informations from liquid fuel and evaporative composition was built the VOCs composition from gasoline, alcohol and diesel emission in the MASP. Together with the totals emitted officially, it was obtained the inventory of emissions used in the simulation. Base case simulations were performed using the photochemical model developed at Caltech Institute of Technology (CIT) and Carnegie Mellon University, and the concentrations simulated were compared with observations from the air quality network of the São Paulo State Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB). Three periods were studied: August 22-24 of 2000; March 13-15 of 2000 and September 06-10 of 2004. Ozone potential formation was calculated for 24 species using reactivity metrics, and was also performed the ozone sensitivity analysis to emission of VOCs, NOx, CO and each VOC individually, for all the periods. From ozone sensitivity analysis to emissions, it was found that the ozone is higher sensitivity to VOCs emissions than to NOx. Therefore, the VOCs reduction is more effective on ozone control in the MASP. Among the VOCs analyzed the species represented by ARO2 (aromatics 2), OLE1 (olefins 1), OLE2 (olefins 2), ETHE (ethene) and HCHO (formaldehyde) were identified as the most important concerning ozone formation in the MASP. Additionally, the impacts of different scenarios of reformulated gasoline in the ozone concentrations in whole domain and time were evaluated in relation to current scenario (base case). The higher reductions of ozone associated to emission control was identified to occur after 3 days of the beginning of control. The scenarios 1 (reduction of 11.1% of the olefins, aromatics and benzene fractions from gasoline) and 2 (reduction of 20.0% of the olefins, aromatics and benzene fractions from gasoline) that reflect the proposals for reformulated gasoline in 2007 and 2009 resulted in reductions of the ozone concentrations, but insufficient for the reduction below of the ozone air quality standard.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar a sensibilidade da formação do ozônio troposférico às emissões veiculares de compostos orgânicos voláteis (COVs) e NOx na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP). Essa avaliação foi realizada através de modelagem numérica com modelo de qualidade do ar fotoquímico tridimensional. Para a determinação da especiação dos COVs veiculares foram realizadas duas campanhas intensivas de medidas em túneis da cidade de São Paulo, constituindo portanto em um esforço na melhoria do inventário de emissões da RMSP. Das medidas de concentração dos COVs, CO, NOx e SO2 foram calculados fatores de emissão e com base na relação entre as concentrações dos COVs emitidos pela exaustão veicular, juntamente com informações obtidas previamente da composição do combustível líquido e das emissões evaporativas foi construído um inventário dos COVs emitidos pela gasolina, álcool e diesel na RMSP, utilizado nas simulações de qualidade do ar. Foram realizadas simulações de referência utilizando o modelo fotoquímico densenvolvido no Caltech Institute of Technology (CIT) e Carnegie Mellon University, e as concentrações obtidas das simulações foram comparadas às concentrações observadas pela rede de monitoramento da Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB) para três períodos distintos, em termos dos níveis de poluição e condições meteorológicas: 22-24 de agosto de 2000; 13-15 de março de 2000 e 06-10 de setembro de 2004. Com base nas simulações de referência foram calculados os potenciais de formação de ozônio para 24 espécies através do cálculo de métricas de reatividade e também realizada a análise da sensibilidade da formação do ozônio às emissões de COVs, NOx, CO e de cada COV individualmente para os três períodos. Da avaliação da análise de sensibilidade do ozônio às emissões pôde-se verificar que o ozônio foi altamente sensível às emissões dos COVs nos três períodos estudados e portanto, o controle da emissão dos COVs é o mais efetivo para o controle do ozônio na RMSP. Dentre os COVs analisados as espécies representadas por ARO2 (aromáticos 2), OLE1 (olefinas 1), OLE2 (olefinas 2), ETHE (eteno) e HCHO (formaldeído) foram as cinco às quais o ozônio (medido em termos de seu potencial de formação e emissão) apresentou maior sensibilidade constituindo-se nas mais relevantes. Adicionalmente, foram avaliados os impactos de diferentes cenários de uso de gasolinas reformuladas nas concentrações de ozônio em todo o domínio em relação ao cenário atual de referência. A máxima resposta do ozônio às reduções de emissão foi obtida após 3 dias do início do controle. Os cenários 1 (redução de 11,1% das frações de olefinas, aromáticos e benzeno da gasolina) e 2 (redução de 20,0% das frações de olefinas, aromáticos e benzeno da gasolina) que refletem as propostas de reformulação da gasolina para 2007 e 2009 resultaram em reduções das concentrações de ozônio, mas insuficientes para a redução para abaixo do padrão de qualidade do ar de ozônio. / The main goal of this work was the study of the ozone sensitivity to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NOx emitted by vehicles in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP), using as tool the numerical modeling. Two intensive campaigns in-tunnel of São Paulo city were performed as an effort to improve the MASP emission inventory. From concentrations measurements of VOCs, CO, NOx and SO2 they were calculated emission factors and based on the relation among the VOCs emitted by exhaust, and also together with informations from liquid fuel and evaporative composition was built the VOCs composition from gasoline, alcohol and diesel emission in the MASP. Together with the totals emitted officially, it was obtained the inventory of emissions used in the simulation. Base case simulations were performed using the photochemical model developed at Caltech Institute of Technology (CIT) and Carnegie Mellon University, and the concentrations simulated were compared with observations from the air quality network of the São Paulo State Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB). Three periods were studied: August 22-24 of 2000; March 13-15 of 2000 and September 06-10 of 2004. Ozone potential formation was calculated for 24 species using reactivity metrics, and was also performed the ozone sensitivity analysis to emission of VOCs, NOx, CO and each VOC individually, for all the periods. From ozone sensitivity analysis to emissions, it was found that the ozone is higher sensitivity to VOCs emissions than to NOx. Therefore, the VOCs reduction is more effective on ozone control in the MASP. Among the VOCs analyzed the species represented by ARO2 (aromatics 2), OLE1 (olefins 1), OLE2 (olefins 2), ETHE (ethene) and HCHO (formaldehyde) were identified as the most important concerning ozone formation in the MASP. Additionally, the impacts of different scenarios of reformulated gasoline in the ozone concentrations in whole domain and time were evaluated in relation to current scenario (base case). The higher reductions of ozone associated to emission control was identified to occur after 3 days of the beginning of control. The scenarios 1 (reduction of 11.1% of the olefins, aromatics and benzene fractions from gasoline) and 2 (reduction of 20.0% of the olefins, aromatics and benzene fractions from gasoline) that reflect the proposals for reformulated gasoline in 2007 and 2009 resulted in reductions of the ozone concentrations, but insufficient for the reduction below of the ozone air quality standard.

Sur les effets du changement climatique aux échelles globale et régionale. Il montre en particulierqu’aucun consensus ne peut être trouvé pour ce qui concerne l’évolution future de lapluviométrie — et de la dynamique atmosphérique associée — en région de mousson africaine.Ce mémoire revisite cette question à la lumière des nouvelles données disponibles et selon uneapproche évitant toute surreprésentation du nombre de simulations disponibles pour un type demodèle donné, tout en prenant en compte la diversité des modèles ainsi que leur évolution dansle temps : sorties de vingt modèles de circulation générale (MCGs) ayant participé aux exercicesCMIP3 (douze MCGs) et CMIP5 (huit MCGs) sous les scénarios d’émissions A1B et rcp4.5,respectivement. Les sorties sont analysées principalement sur deux fenêtres de quarante ans —périodes actuelle (1960-1999) et future (2031-2070) — et les résultats discutés au regard de leurvraisemblance selon une approche permettant à la fois de quantifier les différences futur moinsactuel, de mesurer les significativités et les robustesses statistiques et d’associer une probabilitémesurant le consensus des modèles en fonction des échelles et des variables considérées.Les analyses menées sur CMIP3 et CMIP5 montrent qu’un consensus sur l’effet du changementclimatique en Afrique de l’Ouest peut être obtenu si l’on ne fait pas de l’ensemble de labande sahélienne une entité homogène et qu’on raisonne à des échelles spatiales inférieures. Lesrésultats révèlent une évolution contrastée entre le centre et l’ouest du Sahel avec, pour le futur(i) une hausse des précipitations au centre s’expliquant surtout par une plus grande convergencedes flux dans les basses couches, ainsi qu’une pénétration plus au nord de la mousson ;(ii) une baisse des précipitations à l’ouest s’expliquant par le renforcement de la circulation detype Walker, du Jet d’Est Africain (JEA) et de la subsidence dans les couches moyennes. Parailleurs, on peut s’attendre à une modification du cycle annuel moyen avec un retrait retardé dela mousson. Ce retard est notamment lié aux apports supplémentaires d’humidité depuis l’Atlantique,dus au renforcement des contrastes thermiques et d’humidité entre océan et continent,mais aussi et surtout aux apports tardifs d’humidité depuis la Méditerranée et au renforcementdes flux de nord en septembre et octobre en direction du Sahel / The fourth IPCC report in 2007 established the synthesis of previously published work onthe effects of climate change on global and regional scales. It shows in particular that no consensuscan be found with regard to the future of rainfall — and atmospheric dynamics- associatedwith region — African monsoon. This dissertation revisits this issue in the light of new dataand using an approach avoiding over-representation of the number of simulations available forone type of model and taking into account the diversity of models and their evolution in time :twenty general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the exercises CMIP3 (twelve GCMs)and CMIP5 (eight GCMs) under the A1B emissions scenario and rcp4.5, respectively. Outputsare analyzed on two 40-year periods, — ‘Present’ (1960-1999) and ‘Future’ (2031-2070) — anddiscussed in terms of likelihood, through an approach allowing us to both quantify differences‘future’ minus ‘present’, measure robustness and statistical significances and associate a probabilitymeasuring the model consensus as a function of scales and variables.Analyzes conducted on CMIP3 and CMIP5 show that consensus on the effect of climatechange in West Africa can be achieved if we do not consider the Sahel as a whole and homogeneousentity but at lower scales. The results show contrasted responses over the centraland western Sahel, with for the future, (i) an increase in precipitation in the central regionexplained primarily by a greater convergence of flow in the lower layers and a most northerlymonsoon penetration over the continent, (ii) a rainfall decrease in the western Sahel explainedby increased Walker-type circulation, African easterly jet and mid-level subsidence. Moreover,we can expect a change in the mean annual cycle of the monsoon season with a delayed withdrawallinked to additional inputs of moisture from the Atlantic due to increasing thermal andmoisture contrasts between ocean and continent but also to a stronger contribution of moisturefluxes in September and October from the Mediterranean into the Sahel

In the dominantly small-scale subsistence agricultural system of Ethiopia, where most of the organic inputs are not returned to soil and land is not used based on its best suitability, the contribution of agriculture to climate change mitigation/adaptation through reduction of greenhouse gases emission is undermined. When this low-input agricultural practice is coupled with rugged topography, high population pressure, generally low soil fertility, and looming climate change, ensuring food and nutrition security of society as well as sustainable use of land resources is practically impossible. Under such circumstances, finding alternative land uses, through scientific investigation, that meet the triple mandates of climate-smart agriculture under current and future climate is imperative. In view of this, a study was conducted in Hades Sub-watershed, eastern Ethiopia, to evaluate the carbon stock of major land uses, evaluate suitability of land for rainfed production of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.), Maize (Zea mays L.), coffee (Coffea arabica), upland rice (Oryza sativa L.) and finger millet (Eleusine coracana L.), and project biomass production of late-maturing sorghum and maize varieties under changing climate and its contribution to carbon sequestration and reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission. Soil and vegetation samples were collected following recommended procedures. Secondary data on required crop parameters were collected for model calibration and validation in the biomass projection study made using the AquaCrop v6.0 model. Climate data of the study area was obtained from the National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia and analyzed following standard procedures. Near-century (NC) (2017-2039) and Mid-century (MC) (2040-2069) climate was projected under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using four models (CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, ICHEC-EC-Earth, MOHC-HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) and a Multi-model Ensemble. Biomass production projection, for the climate projected under the two emission scenarios using the four models and the ensemble, was made for late-maturing sorghum (Muyira-1) and maize (BH661) varieties. From the projected biomass, organic carbon and its equivalent CO2 were estimated. Furthermore, adaptation measures, involving adjusting planting dates and irrigation, under the changing climate were evaluated for their influence on biomass production under the time slices, RCPs, and models mentioned above. The carbon stock assessment study was conducted on four major land uses (cultivated, grazing, coffee agroforestry, and forest lands) identified in the study area. The land suitability assessment, using the maximum limitation method, study was conducted on four soil mapping units identified in the sub-watershed. Results indicate that total organic carbon stock (soil, litter plus live vegetation) in the sub-watershed ranged from 138.95 ton ha-1 in the crop land to 496.26 ton ha-1 in the natural forest. The soil organic carbon stock was found to be relatively higher than that of the vegetation carbon stock in the natural forest and coffee agroforestry land uses. The results of suitability evaluation revealed that the maximum current and potential (after corrective xix measures are taken) land suitability class for production of late-maturing sorghum (180-240 days cycle), maize (180-210 days crop cycle), finger millet (120 – 150 days cycle) and coffee in the sub-watershed is marginally suitable (S3c). The maximum current and potential land suitability for upland rice (120 days) is not suitable (N2c). The major permanent limiting factor is low mean temperature (14.6 C) of the growing period in the study area as compared to the optimum temperature required for optimum growth of the selected crops. The major soil and landscape limitations include steep slope, poor drainage of low-lying areas, shallow effective root zone in the upper slopes, low organic matter and available P for sorghum and maize, high pH for maize and wetness for coffee. In all the climate models and emission scenarios, minimum and maximum temperature increment is high during June-July-August-September (JJAS) compared with the other seasons. The modest rise in minimum temperature and the slight increment of maximum temperature during the crop growing seasons (February-March-April-May (FMAM) and JJAS will benefit late-maturing sorghum and maize production in the study area. For the same model, the projected biomass yield and organic carbon sequestration of the two crop varieties varied with time slice and the type of emission scenario used. Generally, increasing biomass production and carbon sequestration were projected for Mid-century (MC) than Near-century (NC) for most of the models used. Late planting would increase sorghum biomass yield and the corresponding organic carbon as compared to early planting as projected by most of the models under both RCPs. Most models predicted an increase in maize biomass yield and organic carbon sequestration if supplementary irrigation is used. The results of this study indicate that the current land uses are not enhancing carbon sequestration because of their exploitative nature and the soil/landscape and climate are not optimum for production of the crops studied. The rise in temperature in the coming 50 years is expected to create a more favorable condition for production of late-maturing sorghum and maize varieties. In order to enhance carbon sequestration, soil productivity and crop yield, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the current land uses and their management require re-visiting. / College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Sciences)