Thesis (Ph.D.)--York University, 2005. Graduate Programme in Economics. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 162-172). Also available on the Internet. MODE OF ACCESS via web browser by entering the following URL: http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/yorku/fullcit?pNR11639

<p> This study analyses the growth prospects of Pakistan over the period 1978 to 1990. The framework used for the analysis is a macroeconometric model of the economy which is constructed and estimated based on data for the period 1956 to 1978. The predictive ability of the model is evaluated in terms of its ability to forecast values of the endogenous variables in an historic simulation context. The model is then used initially to forecast values of major endogenous variables over the period 1978 to 1990, based on a-benchmark set of assumptions about growth in the exogenous variables. The results of the benchmark forecast are compared with results of six other forecasts in which the assumptions about the future course of key domestic and international factors are varied.</p> <p> The macroeconometric model consists of a system of nonlinear dynamic simultaneous equations. An input-output block composed of ten production sectors is incorporated. The final demand side is disaggregated into private and public expenditures, including exports and imports by economic categories. The revenue structure and role of the government in the development of the economy are treated as endogenously determined. The influence of bank credit on capital formation and the effect of government deficits on the money supply are explicitly incorporated.</p> <p> The results of the initial benchmark forecast with the model are compared with targets set by the Pakistan Planning Commission in the context of the Fifth Five-Year Plan (1978-83). It is found that the plan was consistent but was not feasible with regard to the amount of non-inflationary resources required to carry it out. For these reasons, the plan was aborted in 1981. </p> <p> In the other experiments it is found that a higher international growth rate, though raising the growth path of the Pakistan economy, does not translate into an equivalent increase in growth in the domestic economy. The economy's growth path is found to be very sensitive to the course of agricultural development. A harvest failure in one year would permanently lower the growth path for subsequent years. The economy is found to be flexible enough to withstand a surge in imports in one year without its long-run growth path being affected. Finally, on the basis of the last experiment, a feasible course of action for government policy is suggested. This would require development expenditures to increase by half the amount suggested in the plan. Under this policy, gross domestic product and related aggregates would have annual real growth of 4.1 percent in the long-run accompanied by yearly increases in employment of 3.3 percent. Government and balance of payments deficits would be cut to manageable size, resulting in reduced inflationary tendencies in the economy.</p> / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

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Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi / Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / This thesis includes three essays. The first chapter analyzes how the implications of productivity shocks in an open economy can differ depending on the size of the economy relative to the rest of the world. It employs a stylized two-country general equilibrium model with love of variety, where economies differ in size and shows that a dynamic home market effect is present: productivity shocks that lower production and entry costs lead to deterioration of home terms of trade when home is small relative to the rest of the word but to improvement of terms of trade when home is large. The second chapter analyzes the role of globalization in the lack of convergence of living standards within Europe, despite integration processes. Building on theoretical and empirical literature on trade and income inequality in the U.S. this chapter proposes a model that describes how globalization affects disparities between countries in Europe. To quantitatively assess this effect, a measure of exposure to globalization is constructed, using detailed trade, employment, and output data. The chapter shows that the relative performance of countries within Europe is correlated with their exposure to globalization. In particular, countries that experienced relative declines of living standards over the past decade have been most exposed to globalization. The third chapter explores the implications of demand side pricing complementarities and endogenous markups in open economy. It shows that endogenous markups resulting from translog preferences imply richer dynamics for international relative prices that have better chances to match the data. Further, countercyclical markups lead to endogenous procyclical movement as well as cross-country correlation of measured TPF. It also shows that in a stylized model endogenous markups may act as a transmission mechanism, leading in particular to positive GDP co-movement across borders as opposed to a benchmark CES model. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2015. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between economic growth and the inflow of foreign direct investment in the SSA region. Secondary data from organizations and institutes are used to examine if other factors may affect total GDP, in addition to FDI. The estimations used in the regression are foreign direct investment, property rights, level of corruption, logistic performance index, education level, initial GDP and life expectancy.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 1998. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves [154]-164).