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Cenários tecnológicos e os padrões de impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais: um estudo prospectivo no setor sucroenergético brasileiro / The technological scenarios and the patterns of economic, social and environmental impacts: a prospective study in the Brazilian sugarcane energy industryMorilhas, Leandro José 04 September 2012 (has links)
Apesar de ser o produto dominante nos motores automotivos, o petróleo é alvo de críticas devido à questão de emissões de gases de efeito estufa, escalada dos preços e previsões de escassez. O Brasil considera desde 1975, o etanol, uma alternativa melhor do que o petróleo como combustível e ainda vem trabalhando para que outros produtos possam ser desenvolvidos a partir da cana além do açúcar e do etanol. Com isso, considerando-se as possibilidades atuais e futuras para a cana-de-açúcar e seus derivados, três possíveis cenários podem surgir: cenário um: continuidade na produção de açúcar, etanol e energia com inovações incrementais nos processos de produção, cenário dois: inovações radicais em processos com surgimento do etanol de segunda geração e cenário três: grandes inovações em novos produtos derivados de cana-de-açúcar e etanol. Na tentativa de criar vantagens competitivas para vencer seus concorrentes em cada um desses cenários e ao mesmo tempo atender stakeholders como acionistas, governo, meio ambiente, sociedade, consumidores entre outros as empresas investem no desenvolvimento de novas tecnologias. No caso do setor sucroenergético, estas tecnologias advém de pesquisas aplicadas para o desenvolvimento de novas variedades de cana, pelo plantio em outros biomas, pela busca por mecanismos que gerem aumento de produtividade e por novos usos para a cana-de-açúcar e seus derivados. Percebe-se, portanto, que essas pesquisas aplicadas podem não só levar o setor em questão a novos estágios de desenvolvimento como a possíveis cenários alternativos com impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais associados a cada um deles. Logo este estudo buscou responder Quais são os padrões quanto aos tipos e ordem de ocorrência dos impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais decorrentes dos diferentes cenários de evolução tecnológica do setor sucroenergético? Para tanto, os objetivos propostos foram identificar: Os impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais em cada um desses cenários; Os usos alternativos para os produtos atuais derivados de cana-de-açúcar; Os novos produtos derivados de cana-de-açúcar; As forças restritivas e propulsoras, relacionadas com inovação tecnológica para a geração de cenários distintos em relação à utilização da cana-de-açúcar e seus derivados; Os mecanismos geradores de impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais; A inter-relação dos impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais em cada um dos cenários identificados, bem como os graus de influência e de dependência de cada um dos impactos; A possibilidade de ocorrência de cada cenário apresentado neste estudo, bem como suas características; A possibilidade de ocorrência de outros cenários além dos três já apresentados. Para responder a pergunta deste trabalho e seus objetivos foi realizado um estudo qualitativo e exploratório com cinco pesquisadores brasileiros, três pesquisadores estrangeiros e sete empresas representando cada elo da cadeia de suprimentos do setor sucroenergético. Entre outros resultados, o estudo mostrou haver uma predominância do primeiro cenário em detrimento dos demais, uma comunalidade de impactos e a inter-relação entre impactos que poderão orientar futuras ações empresariais para as organizações do setor. / Despite being the dominant product in automotive engines, oil is a criticism target due to the emission issue of greenhouse gases, rising prices and forecasts of absence of this product. Brazil considers, since 1975, ethanol as a better fuel alternative than oil. The Country has been working toward other products, which may be developed from sugarcane, besides sugar and ethanol. Thus, considering the present and future possibilities for sugarcane and its derivatives, three possible scenarios can arise: scenario one, continuing production of sugar, ethanol and energy with small innovations at the production processes; scenario two, radical innovations in processes with the arrival of second generation ethanol; and scenario three, great innovations in new products obtained from sugarcane and ethanol. In an attempt of creating competitive advantage to beat their competitors in each of these scenarios, while meeting the needs of stakeholders such as shareholders, Government, environment, society and consumers, among others, companies invest in developing new technologies. In the case of sugarcane energy industry these technologies come from applied research to develop new varieties of sugarcane, which are embedded in other biomes, from the search for mechanisms that generate increased productivity and from new uses for sugarcane and its derivatives. It can be seen, therefore, that such applied research can not only lead the industry in question to new stages of development as well as to possible alternative scenarios with economic, social and environmental impacts associated to each one of them. Being so, this study tried to answer: What are the patterns regarding the types and order of occurrence among economic, social and environmental impacts caused by different scenarios of technological evolution in the sugarcane energy industry? For this purpose, the objectives tried to identify: economic, social and environmental impacts in each of these scenarios; the alternative uses for present sugarcane derivative products; new products derived from sugarcane; restrictive and driving forces related to technological innovation to generate different scenarios regarding the use of sugarcane and its derivatives; the mechanisms that generate economic, social and environmental impacts; the interrelationship of economic, social and environmental impacts in each of the scenarios identified, as well as the degrees of influence and dependence of each of the impacts; the possibility of occurrence of each scenario presented in this study, as well as their characteristics; the possibility of occurrence of other scenarios besides the three already presented. In order to answer the questions of this research and objectives, we have performed a qualitative and exploratory study among five Brazilian researchers, three foreign researchers and seven foreign companies representing every link in the supply chain of the sugarcane energy industry. Among other results, the study has showed a predominance of the first scenario to the detriment of others, a commonality of impacts and an interrelationship among impacts that could guide future entrepreneurial actions for the energy business industry.
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Comparison of Green Energy Policies between Taiwan and SingaporeKo, Pei-shan 28 July 2012 (has links)
There were three big oil crises in twenty century, and all made international political shakes. The global warming triggered the climate change, the rising of sea horizon and other environmental problems. The advanced countries begin to think about decreasing the dependency of fossil fuels as economic grows. Both the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the United Nations Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in 2009 were the evidences that most of the countries in the world are all concerned about climate change and economical environments. Furthermore, the Kyoto Protocol and the United Nations Climate Change Conferences affected the global economic policies, and also generated new ideas of green economy.
Because of the impacts from the environmental and economic view, many countries made new green energy policies to develop renewable energy, promote green industry, wake up environment protection ideas, and broadcast the education of save energy saving and carbon reduction. This thesis uses the historical method, content analysis method and comparative method and the public policy theory as the theory basement. Then the thesis introduces the summary of global green energy industry. Taiwan and Singapore are called as Four Asian Little Dragons, but both lack of nature resources and depend on energy importation. The thesis discusses the policies on green industry of the Taiwan and Singapore, and also discusses the outputs of the policies. The final part is the policy comparisons between the two governments.
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Cenários tecnológicos e os padrões de impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais: um estudo prospectivo no setor sucroenergético brasileiro / The technological scenarios and the patterns of economic, social and environmental impacts: a prospective study in the Brazilian sugarcane energy industryLeandro José Morilhas 04 September 2012 (has links)
Apesar de ser o produto dominante nos motores automotivos, o petróleo é alvo de críticas devido à questão de emissões de gases de efeito estufa, escalada dos preços e previsões de escassez. O Brasil considera desde 1975, o etanol, uma alternativa melhor do que o petróleo como combustível e ainda vem trabalhando para que outros produtos possam ser desenvolvidos a partir da cana além do açúcar e do etanol. Com isso, considerando-se as possibilidades atuais e futuras para a cana-de-açúcar e seus derivados, três possíveis cenários podem surgir: cenário um: continuidade na produção de açúcar, etanol e energia com inovações incrementais nos processos de produção, cenário dois: inovações radicais em processos com surgimento do etanol de segunda geração e cenário três: grandes inovações em novos produtos derivados de cana-de-açúcar e etanol. Na tentativa de criar vantagens competitivas para vencer seus concorrentes em cada um desses cenários e ao mesmo tempo atender stakeholders como acionistas, governo, meio ambiente, sociedade, consumidores entre outros as empresas investem no desenvolvimento de novas tecnologias. No caso do setor sucroenergético, estas tecnologias advém de pesquisas aplicadas para o desenvolvimento de novas variedades de cana, pelo plantio em outros biomas, pela busca por mecanismos que gerem aumento de produtividade e por novos usos para a cana-de-açúcar e seus derivados. Percebe-se, portanto, que essas pesquisas aplicadas podem não só levar o setor em questão a novos estágios de desenvolvimento como a possíveis cenários alternativos com impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais associados a cada um deles. Logo este estudo buscou responder Quais são os padrões quanto aos tipos e ordem de ocorrência dos impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais decorrentes dos diferentes cenários de evolução tecnológica do setor sucroenergético? Para tanto, os objetivos propostos foram identificar: Os impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais em cada um desses cenários; Os usos alternativos para os produtos atuais derivados de cana-de-açúcar; Os novos produtos derivados de cana-de-açúcar; As forças restritivas e propulsoras, relacionadas com inovação tecnológica para a geração de cenários distintos em relação à utilização da cana-de-açúcar e seus derivados; Os mecanismos geradores de impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais; A inter-relação dos impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais em cada um dos cenários identificados, bem como os graus de influência e de dependência de cada um dos impactos; A possibilidade de ocorrência de cada cenário apresentado neste estudo, bem como suas características; A possibilidade de ocorrência de outros cenários além dos três já apresentados. Para responder a pergunta deste trabalho e seus objetivos foi realizado um estudo qualitativo e exploratório com cinco pesquisadores brasileiros, três pesquisadores estrangeiros e sete empresas representando cada elo da cadeia de suprimentos do setor sucroenergético. Entre outros resultados, o estudo mostrou haver uma predominância do primeiro cenário em detrimento dos demais, uma comunalidade de impactos e a inter-relação entre impactos que poderão orientar futuras ações empresariais para as organizações do setor. / Despite being the dominant product in automotive engines, oil is a criticism target due to the emission issue of greenhouse gases, rising prices and forecasts of absence of this product. Brazil considers, since 1975, ethanol as a better fuel alternative than oil. The Country has been working toward other products, which may be developed from sugarcane, besides sugar and ethanol. Thus, considering the present and future possibilities for sugarcane and its derivatives, three possible scenarios can arise: scenario one, continuing production of sugar, ethanol and energy with small innovations at the production processes; scenario two, radical innovations in processes with the arrival of second generation ethanol; and scenario three, great innovations in new products obtained from sugarcane and ethanol. In an attempt of creating competitive advantage to beat their competitors in each of these scenarios, while meeting the needs of stakeholders such as shareholders, Government, environment, society and consumers, among others, companies invest in developing new technologies. In the case of sugarcane energy industry these technologies come from applied research to develop new varieties of sugarcane, which are embedded in other biomes, from the search for mechanisms that generate increased productivity and from new uses for sugarcane and its derivatives. It can be seen, therefore, that such applied research can not only lead the industry in question to new stages of development as well as to possible alternative scenarios with economic, social and environmental impacts associated to each one of them. Being so, this study tried to answer: What are the patterns regarding the types and order of occurrence among economic, social and environmental impacts caused by different scenarios of technological evolution in the sugarcane energy industry? For this purpose, the objectives tried to identify: economic, social and environmental impacts in each of these scenarios; the alternative uses for present sugarcane derivative products; new products derived from sugarcane; restrictive and driving forces related to technological innovation to generate different scenarios regarding the use of sugarcane and its derivatives; the mechanisms that generate economic, social and environmental impacts; the interrelationship of economic, social and environmental impacts in each of the scenarios identified, as well as the degrees of influence and dependence of each of the impacts; the possibility of occurrence of each scenario presented in this study, as well as their characteristics; the possibility of occurrence of other scenarios besides the three already presented. In order to answer the questions of this research and objectives, we have performed a qualitative and exploratory study among five Brazilian researchers, three foreign researchers and seven foreign companies representing every link in the supply chain of the sugarcane energy industry. Among other results, the study has showed a predominance of the first scenario to the detriment of others, a commonality of impacts and an interrelationship among impacts that could guide future entrepreneurial actions for the energy business industry.
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Energetická bezpečnost České republiky / Energy safety of the Czech republicHošťálková, Petra January 2009 (has links)
In this Thesis I focus on the ensuring of the energy safety in the Czech republic.Further more I deal with a size of the resources, energy utilization, energy legislation and energy forecasting.
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Energetická politika Německa a její vliv na průmysl / Germany's energy policy and its influence on industryZatloukalová, Hana January 2014 (has links)
The Master's thesis deals with the question of Germany's energy policy and its impact on industry. The main objective is to assess the current situation of energy policy in Germany through verbal analysis and analysis of risks and challenges that Germany is facing today. Energy policy is assessed on the basis of a move away from nuclear energy and the transition to renewables. A partial objective is to assess the potential consequences of the energy transformation and their impact on Germany's industry, competitiveness, labor market and climate goals. The work also deals with the evaluation of the energy mix in Germany and a summary of events leading up to the actual change in the direction of energy policy.
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Gestão da energia na indústria : estudo de caso na Braskem / Energy management in industry : case study in BraskemMorais, Éverson Odilson, 1986- 28 August 2018 (has links)
Orientador: Sergio Valdir Bajay / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-28T11:43:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1
Morais_EversonOdilson_M.pdf: 9230860 bytes, checksum: b4a82810b09398fe97a0d08e02576103 (MD5)
Previous issue date: 2015 / Resumo: A energia, seja ela elétrica ou térmica, é um insumo fundamental para qualquer setor da economia. Nas empresas industriais energo-intensivas, em especial, a participação desse insumo nos custos de produção é extremamente significativa e cada vez mais se busca seu uso racional, sem que o processo produtivo seja prejudicado. No Brasil, o setor industrial representa 34% do consumo final de energia elétrica e térmica; deste modo, ações que visam redução do seu consumo energético específico devem ser sempre estimuladas. O Brasil desperdiça todo ano cerca de 10% do total de energia elétrica consumida no país, volume superior ao consumido, por exemplo, pela população total do estado do Rio de Janeiro. Algumas medidas estão sendo adotadas pelo governo a fim de minimizar os desperdícios de energia, através de programas como o Programa Nacional de Conservação de Energia Elétrica (Procel) e os Programas de Eficiência Energética das empresas distribuidoras de energia elétrica, regulados pela Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL), dentre outros. Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a atual sistemática de gestão de energia da maior empresa do segmento petroquímico no Brasil, a Braskem, e elaborar uma proposta para o seu aprimoramento, visando à certificação pela ISO 50001 ¿ Sistema de Gestão da Energia. Para o desenvolvimento do trabalho foi realizada uma análise retrospectiva de como o tema eficiência energética tem sido abordado nos últimos anos na Braskem, até a implantação da atual sistema de gestão de energia, na qual o autor desta dissertação participou, e os ganhos de eficiência energética que este sistema tem propiciado. Também foi realizada consulta entre algumas grandes empresas industriais no país e no exterior, com o intuito de verificar boas práticas de gestão energética que estão sendo desenvolvidas e o que poderiam ser aplicados na Braskem. Nota-se que, apesar dos grandes benefícios que os ganhos de eficiência energética podem propiciar aos consumidores de energia e à sociedade, há ainda muitas barreiras que tem limitado sua aplicação; porém, assim como na Braskem, as grandes empresas energo-intensivas estão cada vez mais buscando formas de reduzir seu consumo específico de energia, aumentando, assim, sua competitividade no mercado / Abstract: Energy, be it electrical or thermal energy, is a fundamental resource in every sector of the economy. In energy-intensive industrial companies, in particular, energy plays an important role in terms of production costs, since this resource impacts significantly the company's bottom-line. Because of that, companies tend to intensely focus on the sustainable use of such a resource without impacting the production process. Since industry accounts for 34% of the final energy consumption in Brazil, actions to reduce its specific consumption should be stimulated. Yearly, 10% of the total electricity consumption in the country is wasted, whose volume is higher than the electricity consumed in the State of Rio de Janeiro. Some measures are being implemented by the government seeking to minimize energy losses, through programs such as the National Electricity Conservation Program (Procel) and the electricity distribution utilities¿ energy efficiency programs, regulated by the National Agency for Electric Energy (ANEEL). This thesis aims at assessing the current energy management system in the largest petrochemical company in Brazil, Braskem, and proposing its upgrade to obtain the ISO 50001 certification on Management of Energy Systems. A retrospective analysis is carried out to show how the energy efficiency issue has been approached at Braskem in the last years, culminating with the adoption of the current energy management system, in which the author of this thesis participated, and the energy efficiency gains this system has provided for. Some large industrial companies in Brazil and abroad were also contacted, in the search for good energy management practices that could be customized for application at Braskem. It can be observed that, even though energy efficiency gains bring large benefits to energy customers and to society, many barriers are still limiting their application. However, such as Braskem, many large energy-intensive companies are seeking to reduce their specific energy consumption, increasing, in this way, their competitive advantage in the market place / Mestrado / Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos / Mestre em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos
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Hur organiseras och vilka förutsättningar har Bas-U inom elnätsbranschen : En kvalitativ studie om vad olika yrkesroller inom elnätsbranschen anser om byggarbetsmiljösamordning / How construction work environment coordination for execution is organized, can be improved, and what in form of conditions are desired for the individuals who perform this work in the energy industry : A qualitative study of what different professional roles in the electricity network industry think about construction environment coordinationJohansson Ögren, William January 2022 (has links)
The purpose of this study was to investigate how construction work environment coordination for executions is organized, can be improved, and what in form of conditions are desired for the individuals who perform this work in the energy industry. The study was performed with a qualitative method, questionnaires were addressed to four different occupational groups at seven different companies. Construction work environment coordinator for planning at a developer, work environment manager, construction work environment coordinator for execution and electricians, all the latter three at an electricity network contractor. The result of the study shows that especially time and knowledge are two important conditions that today need to be improved for the construction work environment coordinator for execution. Recourses and authority are also two conditions that can be improved for a safer workplace. The lack of knowledge is not only seen with the electricity network contractors. The developers can, according to the respondents, also improve in the way they plan the work and be more precise in how much time is needed for the construction work environment coordinator for execution. To reduce stress and the risk of workplace accidents developers should calculate more time for each project. The conclusion of this study is that improvement of knowledge from all parts of the energy industry is needed, and that more time in both projects and construction work environment coordination must be increased.
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Selecting sustainability management tools for medium sized companies : Development of a structured method for companies in the retail and energy industrial sectorsSievers, Amanda January 2018 (has links)
Inom området hållbarhetsledning så finns det många verktyg som har utvecklats för att hjälpa företag att adressera och hantera olika delar av hållbarhet. Mängden verktyg som finns tillgängliga innebär att det är en utmaning i sig att välja det bästa möjliga verktyget för ett givet företag. För små och medelstora företag finns ytterligare svårigheter inom de flesta delar av hållbarhetsledning, framför allt på grund av begränsade resurser. En av dessa utmaningar är att hitta och implementera lämpliga och användbara hållbarhetsledningsverktyg. Många hållbarhetsledningsverktyg fokuserar på olika områden av hållbarhet, indelade i indikatorer. Olika industrier har olika verktyg som är utvecklade för och passar dem, och lägger olika vikt vid indikatorer baserat på vilken påverkan industrin har inom hållbarhetsområdet. Utöver detta har företag olika krav på hållbarhetsledningsverktyg, baserat på deras unika omständigheter, påverkan, resurser och existerade hållbarhetsarbete. En metod för att hantera valet av verktyg är därför att matcha verktyg och företag baserat på indikatorer och faktorerna beskrivna ovan. Detta projekt försöker förenkla processen att välja verktyg genom att skapa en strukturerad modell för urvalsprocessen, baserad på hållbarhetsindikatorer, och att testa den genom att skapa en verktygslåda med kombinationer av verktyg för två fallstudieföretag. Verktygslådan framtagen i projektet innehåller verktyg företaget använder i nuläget, verktyg som föreslås som komplement, och verktyg som är onödiga att fokusera på då använda verktyg täcker ekvivalenta indikatorer. I det här projektet utfördes två jämförande kartläggningar av verktyg och indikatorer för att testa modellen. Detta baserades på information om verktyg och vilka indikatorer de täcker, tillsammans med information om nuläge och hållbarhetsarbete hos två medelstora svenska företag. De båda företagen är Houdini, som arbetar med produktion och försäljning av kläder, och Jämtkraft, från energisektorn. Den utvecklade modellen kunde användas för att generera förslag på verktygslådor för de båda fallen. Dock visade dessa verktygslådor även modellens begränsningar och brister, såsom exkluderingen av verktyg som inte använder indikatorer, och antagandena att verktygen passar medelstora företag lika bra och producerar lika bra resultat om de täcker samma indikatorer. Projektets slutsats är därför att det är möjligt att använda den här modellen för att välja verktyg baserat på indikatorer, men dess användning begränsas av vad som exkluderas. Dock bör fortsatt vidareutveckling av modellen kunna lösa dessa problem. / Within sustainability management, there are several sustainability management tools which have been developed to help companies address disparate aspects of sustainability. This multitude of options means that selecting the best possible tool for companies is a challenge in and of itself. In the case of small- and medium sized companies, there are additional difficulties in regard to most aspects of sustainability management, primarily due to a lack of resources. Among these challenges are finding and implementing suitable and useful sustainability management tools. This project attempts to simplify the tool selection process, by creating a structured tool selection model based on sustainability key performance indicators. A large number of sustainability management tools are focused on different areas of sustainability, often divided into some form of indicators. Different industries have different tools available and suitable for them, and different priorities among sustainability performance indicators, based on which impacts and effects the industry has on sustainability. Individual companies have differing requirements on sustainability management tools as well, based on unique circumstances, impacts, available resources, and existing sustainability measures. One way to handle tool selection is thus to match tools to companies, based on indicators and the factors described above. The intention for this project is to create a model for simplifying tool selection, and to test it by creating suggested combination of tools, a “toolbox”, to use for two case companies. The toolbox includes which tools are currently used, suggestions for which additional tools should be implemented to cover indicator gaps, and which tools are unnecessary to focus on, since used tools cover equivalent indicators. In this project, two mappings of tools and indicators were performed to test the model. This was based on information gathered about the tools and which indicators they cover, combined with information about the conditions and sustainability work from two Swedish medium sized companies. The selected companies were Houdini, from the Swedish clothing retail industry, and Jämtkraft, from the Swedish energy sector. The model can be used to generate toolbox suggestion for these cases. However, there are several limitations to this model, such as the exclusion of non-indicator focused tools, and the assumptions that these sustainability tools produce equal results and are useful for medium sized companies. The conclusion is reached that a decision-making process based on indicators is possible, but there are several important considerations not included within this specific model which limits its potential use. Further development of this model can be done to remedy these shortcomings.
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Graph theory applications in the energy sector : From the perspective of electric utility companiesEspinosa, Kristofer, Vu, Tam January 2020 (has links)
Graph theory is a mathematical study of objects and their pairwise relations, also known as nodes and edges. The birth of graph theory is often considered to take place in 1736 when Leonhard Euler tried to solve a problem involving seven bridges of Königsberg in Prussia. In more recent times, graphs has caught the attention of companies from many industries due to its power of modelling and analysing large networks. This thesis investigates the usage of graph theory in the energy sector for a utility company, in particular Fortum whose activities consist of, but not limited to, production and distribution of electricity and heat. The output of the thesis is a wide overview of graph-theoretic concepts and their applications, as well as an evaluation of energy-related use-cases where some concepts are put into deeper analysis. The chosen use-case within the scope of this thesis is feature selection for electricity price forecasting. Feature selection is a process for reducing the number of features, also known as input variables, typically before a regression model is built to avoid overfitting and to increase model interpretability. Five graph-based feature selection methods with different points of view are studied. Experiments are conducted on realistic data sets with many features to verify the legitimacy of the methods. One of the data sets is owned by Fortum and used for forecasting the electricity price, among other important quantities. The obtained results look promising according to several evaluation metrics and can be used by Fortum as a support tool to develop prediction models. In general, a utility company can likely take advantage graph theory in many ways and add value to their business with enriched mathematical knowledge. / Grafteori är ett matematiskt område där objekt och deras parvisa relationer, även kända som noder respektive kanter, studeras. Grafteorins födsel anses ofta ha ägt rum år 1736 när Leonhard Euler försökte lösa ett problem som involverade sju broar i Königsberg i Preussen. På senare tid har grafer fått uppmärksamhet från företag inom flera branscher på grund av dess kraft att modellera och analysera stora nätverk. Detta arbete undersöker användningen av grafteori inom energisektorn för ett allmännyttigt företag, närmare bestämt Fortum, vars verksamhet består av, men inte är begränsad till, produktion och distribution av el och värme. Arbetet resulterar i en bred genomgång av grafteoretiska begrepp och deras tillämpningar inom både allmänna tekniska sammanhang och i synnerhet energisektorn, samt ett fallstudium där några begrepp sätts in i en djupare analys. Den valda fallstudien inom ramen för arbetet är variabelselektering för elprisprognostisering. Variabelselektering är en process för att minska antalet ingångsvariabler, vilket vanligtvis genomförs innan en regressions- modell skapas för att undvika överanpassning och öka modellens tydbarhet. Fem grafbaserade metoder för variabelselektering med olika ståndpunkter studeras. Experiment genomförs på realistiska datamängder med många ingångsvariabler för att verifiera metodernas giltighet. En av datamängderna ägs av Fortum och används för att prognostisera elpriset, bland andra viktiga kvantiteter. De erhållna resultaten ser lovande ut enligt flera utvärderingsmått och kan användas av Fortum som ett stödverktyg för att utveckla prediktionsmodeller. I allmänhet kan ett energiföretag sannolikt dra fördel av grafteori på många sätt och skapa värde i sin affär med hjälp av berikad matematisk kunskap
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Análise do desempenho do setor elétrico no Brasil - 2010 a 2015 / Analysis of the performance of the electrital sector in Brazil - 2010 to 2015Renata Wandroski Peris 16 January 2017 (has links)
O objetivo principal deste trabalho se concentrou na análise do desempenho das empresas do setor elétrico no Brasil, com foco nas companhias de capital aberto. Como objetivo complementar, a análise dos efeitos da edição da Medida Provisória nº 579/2012 nas empresas do setor. Para isso, foi realizada revisão da literatura acerca do setor elétrico no Brasil, sua estrutura microeconômica e o modelo de regulação; avaliação do desempenho das empresas e estudos relacionados; contexto político e econômico das empresas do setor e a problemática da MP579. A análise quantitativa utilizou variáveis contábeis e de Governança, de mercado e econômicas de 24 empresas de energia elétrica listadas na BM&FBovespa, no período de janeiro de 2010 a dezembro de 2015. Foram elaborados três estudos. O primeiro estudo foi realizado para avaliar desempenho. Foram utilizados dados trimestrais e foi realizada a aplicação do modelo de regressão com dados em painel, sendo dividido em três análises: a primeira realizada com ROE e variáveis contábeis e de Governança, que resultou nas variáveis margem líquida e liquidez corrente para avaliar o desempenho financeiro; a segunda com ROA e variáveis contábeis e de Governança e teve como variáveis significativas dívida bruta/ativo, margem líquida e liquidez corrente para desempenho operacional; e a terceira com a variável Retorno da Ação e variáveis de mercado tendo como resultantes o valor de mercado, enterprise value/ebitda e retorno do Ibovespa para explicar o desempenho de mercado. O segundo estudo utilizou dados anuais e realizou a aplicação de regressão de dados em painel utilizando as variáveis contábeis e de Governança, de mercado e econômicas, para avaliar os efeitos do contexto macroeconômico no conjunto das variáveis em duas análises separadas, a primeira com a variável ROE e a segunda, com ROA. Para a primeira análise, o resultado encontrado foi que dívida líquida/ebitda, margem líquida, capex/depreciação e amortização, enterprise value/ebitda, cotação de fechamento e o beta são significativas para explicar o desempenho financeiro. Para a segunda análise, dívida líquida/ebitda, investimento/patrimônio líquido, liquidez corrente, margem líquida, enterprise value/ebitda, dividendo pago por ação e o beta foram significativas para explicar o desempenho operacional. Não foram encontradas evidências para as variáveis econômicas. O terceiro estudo foi realizado para avaliar o efeito das mudanças produzidas pela edição da MP579 na rentabilidade das empresas do setor. Para isso, foram criadas duas janelas temporais, compreendendo três anos anteriores e três anos posteriores à edição do normativo e criada uma dummy para identificar as empresas que aderiram à Medida e as que não aderiram. Foi elaborado o teste differences-in-differences e realizadas duas regressões em painel com as variáveis ROE e ROA para compreender a consequência da adesão à Medida por parte das empresas. O resultado dos testes revelou que a Medida afetou negativamente a rentabilidade das empresas que aderiram à renovação das concessões / The main objective of this work was to analyze the performance of companies at the electric sector in Brazil, with a focus on listed companies. As a complementary objective, the analysis of the effects for the issue of Provisional Measure 579/2012 in the power utilities. For this, a review of the literature was made from the electric sector in Brazil, its microeconomic structure and the regulatory model; Business performance assessment and related studies; Political and economic context of the companies in the sector and the problem of MP579. The quantitative analysis used accounting and governance, market and economic variables of 24 electric companies listed on BM& FBovespa from January 2010 to December 2015. Three studies were prepared. The first one was conducted to evaluate performance. Quarterly data were used and the regression model with panel data was applied and divided into three analyzes: the first one performed with ROE and Accounting and Governance variables, which resulted in the variables net margin and current liquidity to evaluate financial performance; The second with ROA and accounting and governance variables had as significant variables gross/asset debt, net margin and current liquidity for operational performance; And the third with the variable Return on Stocks and market variables resulting in the market value, enterprise value/ebitda and Ibovespa return to explain the market performance. The second study used annual data and applied panel data regression using the accounting and governance variables, market and economic, to evaluate the effects of the macroeconomic context on the set of variables in two separate analyzes, the first with the variable ROE and the second with ROA. For the first analysis, net debt/ebitda, net margin, capex/depreciation and amortization, enterprise value/ebitda, closing quote and beta are significant to explain financial performance. For the second analysis, net debt/ebitda, investment/shareholders\' equity, current liquidity, net margin, enterprise value/ebitda, dividend paid per share and beta were significant to explain operational performance. No evidences were found for the economic variables. The third study was conducted to evaluate the effect of the changes produced by the MP579 on the profitability of the companies. For that, two time horizons were created, comprising three years before and three years after the issue of the normative and created a dummy to identify the companies that joined to the Measure and those that did not adhere. The differences-in-differences test was produced and two panel regressions were performed with the variables ROE and ROA to understand the consequence of adherence to the Measure by the companies. The result of the tests shown that the Measure affected negatively the profitability of the companies that adhered to the renewal of the concessions
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