Energy consumption in the form of fuel or electricity is ubiquitous globally. Among energy types, electricity is crucial to human life in terms of cooking, warming and cooling of shelters, powering of electronic devices as well as commercial and industrial operations. Therefore, effective prediction of future electricity consumption cannot be underestimated. Notably, repeated imbalance is noticed between the demand and supply of electricity, and this is affected by different weather profiles such as temperature, wind speed, dew point, humidity and pressure of the electricity consumption locations. Effective planning is therefore needed to aid electricity distribution among consumers. Such effective planning is activated by the need to predict future electricity consumption within a short period and the effect of weather variables on the predictions. Although state-of-the-art techniques have been used for such predictions, they still require improvement for the purpose of reducing significant predictive errors when used for short-term load forecasting. This research develops and deploys a near-zero cooperative probabilistic scenario analysis and decision tree (PSA-DT) model to address the lacuna of significant predictive error faced by the state-of-the-art models and to analyse the effect of each weather profile on the cooperative model. The PSA-DT is a machine learning model based on a probabilistic technique in view of the uncertain nature of electricity consumption, complemented by a DT to reinforce the collaboration of the two techniques. Based on detailed experimental analytics on residential, commercial and industrial data loads, the PSA-DT model with weather profiles outperforms the state-of-the-art models in terms of accuracy to a minimal error rate. This implies that its deployment for electricity demand planning will be of great benefit to various smart-grid operators and homes. / School of Computing / M. Sc. (Computer Science)

The objective of this dissertation is to analyze the economic impact of newly operational ethanol biorefineries on rural counties in the U.S. Midwest region for the period 2001 to 2015 using a quasi-experimental approach. Rapid growth in the ethanol industry expanded the number of ethanol plants located in the U.S. Midwest from 54 in 2001 to 173 in 2015. Out of the counties with 119 new ethanol biorefineries, 97 counties met the general treatment criteria defined in this dissertation, but only 56 of those counties qualified for the rural treatment criteria. Counties with ethanol biorefineries that qualified for treatment were organized into a treated group based on county level data. Six counterfactual control groups (or control counties without ethanol biorefineries) were contemporaneously matched to the treated counties based on the Mahalanobis distance metric evaluated on a set of 29 selection variables. Matching occurred on two levels. In the first level, matching was performed both for the in-state level and over the entire Midwest region. In the second level, three criteria were used to select the final control groups: Mahalanobis distance metric best match, population best match, and rural-urban continuum codes (RUCC) best match. Economic impact is evaluated based on the growth rate in real per capita earnings for the treated group over a period from one to five years after treatment relative to the control group. A difference-in-differences (DID) model is used to assess the significance of results where the dependent variable is the natural log of real per capita earnings and a set of control variables is used to capture state fixed effects, time fixed effects and spillover effects. Empirical results evaluated against a representative Midwest control group and over six regression models adjusting for various fixed effects produced, on average, one-sided significant results for average treatment on the treated (ATOT) with a (min, max) range of growth rates as (5.53%-7.63%), (10.0%-12.0%), (14.7%-19.6%), (14.5%-18.3%), and (13.3%-18.9%) from one to five years after treatment, respectively. The minimum value of these estimates can be represented as an uncorrected average annual growth rate as 2.75%, 3.33%, 3.68%, 2.90%, and 2.22% over the respective period from one to five years after treatment. Employment levels for the treated group increased on average by 211 at the county level five years after treatment. A comparative Midwest control group lost, on average, 169 jobs over the five year period after treatment. A treated county employment multiplier calculated using the direct, indirect and induced employment impacts varied from 1.46 during the year of treatment to 7.6 five years after treatment relative to the control group. Five years after treatment, the treated group employment rate gradually increased, on average, by 2.2% which was better than either of the two counterfactual control groups used in this comparison. Overall, the analysis presented in this dissertation does show statistically significant positive economic impacts, on average, for rural U.S. Midwest counties with newly operational ethanol biorefineries relative to control counties without an ethanol biorefinery. These results demonstrate that the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) contributed to positive rural economic development impacts in treated counties with the possibility of spillover effects positively affecting contiguous counties.

Sponsored by the M.I.T. Center for Energy Policy Research.

This thesis follows the process of introducing natural gas in Sweden and the construction of a Northern European gas grid from 1967 to 1991. Natural gas is a relatively unnoticed fuel in Sweden today, but this relative anonymity stands in contrast to an extensive historical activity that has taken place behind the scenes of Swedish energy policy. The single pipeline constructed between Denmark and Sweden in the early 1980s was both preceded and followed by many other attempts to construct a larger natural gas pipeline in the region made in the last 50 years. Åberg traces these attempts while discussing the complex and messy process of constructing and managing a transnational energy infrastructure.Åberg follows actors in Sweden and other countries in their attempts to negotiate and construct a natural gas infrastructure, and puts this process into a national as well as transnational context. The perceived risks and opportunities surrounding natural gas are examined, together with factors that have influenced the development of natural gas in a broader sense. By seeing the changing and messy natural gas projects as arenas where different actors construct and negotiate risks and opportunities, as well as contexualize the projects, Åberg shows how the natural gas sector in Sweden has evolved and taken shape.The study shows that natural gas in Sweden has suffered from unstable actor coalitions on different levels, a difficult market situation, and a changeful political context, especially with regard to energy policy. The import status of the fuel and the consequential transnationality of the natural gas infrastructure have also made the process of constructing a pipeline more complex. However, natural gas was introduced in Sweden, showing that when a strong enough actor coalition agreed that there was enough reason to warrant a natural gas introduction and was ready to join this endeavor, a connection could be achieved. This puts into question to what degree general explanations in terms of finance and policy drive energy decisions, and makes a case for showing how these explanations are adapted into their social and historical contexts in sometimes surprising ways. / <p>QC 20130507</p> / The integration of energy markets across system and nation boundaries

This dissertation explores the potential of renewable energy and efficiency strategies to solve the energy challenges faced by the people living in the biosphere reserve of El Vizcaíno, which is located in the North Pacific region of the Mexican state of Baja California Sur. This research setting provides a practical analytical milieu to understand better the multiple problems faced by practitioners and agencies trying to implement sustainable energy solutions in Mexico. The thesis starts with a literature review (chapter two) that examines accumulated international experience regarding the development of renewable energy projects as a prelude to identifying the most salient implementation barriers impeding this type of initiatives. Two particularly salient findings from the literature review include the importance of considering gender issues in energy analysis and the value of using participatory research methods. These findings informed fieldwork design and the analytical framework of the dissertation. Chapter three surveys electricity generation as well as residential and commercial electricity use in nine coastal communities located in El Vizcaíno. Chapter three summarizes the fieldwork methodology used, which relies on a mix of qualitative and quantitative research methods that aim at enabling a gender-disaggregated analysis to describe more accurately local energy uses, needs, and barriers. Chapter four describes the current plans of the state government, which are focused in expanding one of the state’s diesel-powered electricity grids to El Vizcaíno. The Chapter also examines the potential for replacing diesel generators with a combination of renewable energy systems and efficiency measures in the coastal communities sampled. Chapter five analyzes strategies to enable the implementation of sustainable energy approaches in El Vizcaíno. Chapter five highlights several international examples that could be useful to inform organizational changes at the federal and state level aimed at fostering renewable energy and efficiency initiatives that enhance energy security, protect the environment, and also increase economic opportunities in El Vizcaíno and elsewhere in Mexico. Chapter six concludes the thesis by providing: a summary of all key findings, a broad analysis of the implications of the research, and an overview of future lines of inquiry.

University of Macau / Faculty of Law

Wind power will be an important component of California's aggressive strategies to meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets by the year 2020. However, the costs of integrating wind power's variable and uncertain output are often ignored. I argue that California must take prudent action to understand, minimize, and allocate wind integration costs. A review of numerous studies suggests that for wind penetration levels below 20%, integration costs should remain modest. However, costs are heavily dependent on market structure, and I suggest numerous ways that California can optimize its market design to manage wind integration costs.

This dissertation explores the potential of renewable energy and efficiency strategies to solve the energy challenges faced by the people living in the biosphere reserve of El Vizcaíno, which is located in the North Pacific region of the Mexican state of Baja California Sur. This research setting provides a practical analytical milieu to understand better the multiple problems faced by practitioners and agencies trying to implement sustainable energy solutions in Mexico. The thesis starts with a literature review (chapter two) that examines accumulated international experience regarding the development of renewable energy projects as a prelude to identifying the most salient implementation barriers impeding this type of initiatives. Two particularly salient findings from the literature review include the importance of considering gender issues in energy analysis and the value of using participatory research methods. These findings informed fieldwork design and the analytical framework of the dissertation. Chapter three surveys electricity generation as well as residential and commercial electricity use in nine coastal communities located in El Vizcaíno. Chapter three summarizes the fieldwork methodology used, which relies on a mix of qualitative and quantitative research methods that aim at enabling a gender-disaggregated analysis to describe more accurately local energy uses, needs, and barriers. Chapter four describes the current plans of the state government, which are focused in expanding one of the state’s diesel-powered electricity grids to El Vizcaíno. The Chapter also examines the potential for replacing diesel generators with a combination of renewable energy systems and efficiency measures in the coastal communities sampled. Chapter five analyzes strategies to enable the implementation of sustainable energy approaches in El Vizcaíno. Chapter five highlights several international examples that could be useful to inform organizational changes at the federal and state level aimed at fostering renewable energy and efficiency initiatives that enhance energy security, protect the environment, and also increase economic opportunities in El Vizcaíno and elsewhere in Mexico. Chapter six concludes the thesis by providing: a summary of all key findings, a broad analysis of the implications of the research, and an overview of future lines of inquiry.

Through the Smart Metering Initiative in the Canadian province of Ontario, all residential electricity customers will be converted from a tiered rate regime to a time-of-use (TOU) rate regime by the year 2010. Although TOU rates are designed to be cost-neutral for the average consumer, research suggests that TOU rates may affect consumers differently depending on their socioeconomic characteristics. In an effort to better understand the effects of TOU rates on lower-income and senior-headed households, a case-study in Milton was conducted between June and December of 2007. The overarching thesis question is: What are the behavioural responses to, and financial impacts of, TOU electricity rates on lower-income and senior-headed households? Nine expert interviews were conducted with Ontario professionals working in government, environmental non-profit groups, citizen advocacy organizations and affordable housing associations in order to provide context for the study. Time-differentiated electricity consumption data were then collected from 199 households from two senior housing complexes and two affordable housing complexes in Milton, Ontario between June and December 2007. A questionnaire was also sent to each household to determine some socio-economic and structural characteristics of the households. The electricity consumption data collected from the four sites suggest that the households would not benefit financially from TOU rates given electricity consumption behaviour during the period prior to the implementation of TOU rates in June 2007. Thus, they would have to change their behaviour in order to benefit financially from TOU rates. During this pre-TOU period, Site A, Site B and Site C would have paid more, on average, for their electricity under TOU rates than on tiered rates ($0.34, $0.61 and $0.15 per week, respectively). While Site D, on average, would have seen no change under TOU rates. A conservation effect was detected by comparing the electricity consumption from billing periods in 2006 to corresponding billing periods in 2007 after the implementation of TOU rates. Site A saw a conservation effect during the first corresponding billing period (35%); while Site B saw a conservation effect for three corresponding billing periods (21%, 24% and 9%). Site C saw a conservation effect for the first five corresponding billing periods (ranging from 8% to 21%), while Site D saw a conservation effect for all corresponding billing periods (ranging from 10% to 34%). The presence of a conservation effect at Site D was unexpected, particularly because households at Site D are not responsible for paying their own electricity bills. Although a conservation effect was observed after the implementation of TOU rates, the extent to which it could be attributed to the implementation of TOU rates is unclear, and should be investigated further. There was no considerable shift in the proportion of electricity consumed during each of the peak periods during the summer TOU period for Site A and Site D after the introduction of TOU rates. There was, however, a slight reduction in the portion of electricity consumed during the summer TOU period for Site B and Site C (0.2% and 0.1% per week, respectively). Due to the change in the on-, mid- and off-peak schedule from the summer TOU period to the winter TOU period, the households consume more electricity during the off-peak periods in the winter than they do during the off-peak periods in the summer (even though their patterns of consumption do not change). Similar to the pre-TOU period, during the summer post-TOU period, Site A and Site B, and Site C, on average, paid more for electricity (commodity) under TOU rates than they would have paid if they had continued on tiered rates ($0.38, $0.51 and $0.16 more per week, respectively), while Site D would have seen no change in their electricity costs. In contrast, during the winter post-TOU period several sites paid less for electricity on TOU rates than they would have if they had continued on tiered rates. Site B, Site C and Site D paid, on average, $0.78, $0.16 and $1.76 less per week, respectively. Although Site A paid more under on TOU rates during the winter post-TOU (on average $0.18 more per week), the cost was less than during the summer post-TOU period. The change in costs expressed here does not reflect any reduced costs that may have resulted from conservation. For example, if the households were shown to have a conservation effect, they might have lower electricity costs. Additionally, the changes in costs do not reflect any additional fees or charges that might be attributed to the smart meter installation and the Smart Metering Initiative (e.g., additional fees from Milton Hydro). In conclusion, TOU rates appear to be ineffective at motivating these lower-income and senior-headed households in Milton, Ontario to shift electricity from on-peak periods to off-peak periods, however, a reduction in electricity usage may be attributed to TOU rates. Further research is required to confirm these effects. It is important to note that some of the lower-income and senior-headed households in this study appeared to see an increase in their electricity bill, particularly during the summer TOU period. Lower-income and senior-headed households are thought to be less able to shift electricity consumption, therefore it is important to develop mechanisms to identify households that are at risk of bill increases.

This paper examines the history of nuclear energy, safety developments of reactors and nuclear energy policy from the 1950s on. I investigate the effects of nuclear accidents on energy policy with the help of a panel dataset of 31 countries from 1965-2009, using annual data about the capacity of reactors under construction, primary energy consumption, as well as three nuclear accidents scaled INES five or higher by the International Atomic Energy Agency. After determining the extent of the accident impact in the different countries, I find that neither Three Mile Island nor Lucens had a worldwide negative effect on construction starts, while Chernobyl did. The effect of Chernobyl is however shown to wear-off in certain geographical clusters, after ten to thirty years. I find that nuclear capacity enlargement shows a significant persistence, but it was also driven by primary energy consumption in the past five decades. The effects of real interest rates, inflation, or gross domestic product on reactor construction were not found significant. Thus, an accident is likely to have a negative and long lasting impact in the country where it happened, and possibly in countries affected by the direct consequences, or where governments are subject to severe public pressure.It is difficult to estimate the consequences Fukushima is going to have on worldwide power plant constructions, but areas closer to the accident might be affected more negatively and for a longer time. Growing concerns of energy supply security and greenhouse gas emissions may counteract this impact at the legislative level. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series