Through the Smart Metering Initiative in the Canadian province of Ontario, all residential electricity customers will be converted from a tiered rate regime to a time-of-use (TOU) rate regime by the year 2010. Although TOU rates are designed to be cost-neutral for the average consumer, research suggests that TOU rates may affect consumers differently depending on their socioeconomic characteristics. In an effort to better understand the effects of TOU rates on lower-income and senior-headed households, a case-study in Milton was conducted between June and December of 2007. The overarching thesis question is: What are the behavioural responses to, and financial impacts of, TOU electricity rates on lower-income and senior-headed households? Nine expert interviews were conducted with Ontario professionals working in government, environmental non-profit groups, citizen advocacy organizations and affordable housing associations in order to provide context for the study. Time-differentiated electricity consumption data were then collected from 199 households from two senior housing complexes and two affordable housing complexes in Milton, Ontario between June and December 2007. A questionnaire was also sent to each household to determine some socio-economic and structural characteristics of the households. The electricity consumption data collected from the four sites suggest that the households would not benefit financially from TOU rates given electricity consumption behaviour during the period prior to the implementation of TOU rates in June 2007. Thus, they would have to change their behaviour in order to benefit financially from TOU rates. During this pre-TOU period, Site A, Site B and Site C would have paid more, on average, for their electricity under TOU rates than on tiered rates ($0.34, $0.61 and $0.15 per week, respectively). While Site D, on average, would have seen no change under TOU rates. A conservation effect was detected by comparing the electricity consumption from billing periods in 2006 to corresponding billing periods in 2007 after the implementation of TOU rates. Site A saw a conservation effect during the first corresponding billing period (35%); while Site B saw a conservation effect for three corresponding billing periods (21%, 24% and 9%). Site C saw a conservation effect for the first five corresponding billing periods (ranging from 8% to 21%), while Site D saw a conservation effect for all corresponding billing periods (ranging from 10% to 34%). The presence of a conservation effect at Site D was unexpected, particularly because households at Site D are not responsible for paying their own electricity bills. Although a conservation effect was observed after the implementation of TOU rates, the extent to which it could be attributed to the implementation of TOU rates is unclear, and should be investigated further. There was no considerable shift in the proportion of electricity consumed during each of the peak periods during the summer TOU period for Site A and Site D after the introduction of TOU rates. There was, however, a slight reduction in the portion of electricity consumed during the summer TOU period for Site B and Site C (0.2% and 0.1% per week, respectively). Due to the change in the on-, mid- and off-peak schedule from the summer TOU period to the winter TOU period, the households consume more electricity during the off-peak periods in the winter than they do during the off-peak periods in the summer (even though their patterns of consumption do not change). Similar to the pre-TOU period, during the summer post-TOU period, Site A and Site B, and Site C, on average, paid more for electricity (commodity) under TOU rates than they would have paid if they had continued on tiered rates ($0.38, $0.51 and $0.16 more per week, respectively), while Site D would have seen no change in their electricity costs. In contrast, during the winter post-TOU period several sites paid less for electricity on TOU rates than they would have if they had continued on tiered rates. Site B, Site C and Site D paid, on average, $0.78, $0.16 and $1.76 less per week, respectively. Although Site A paid more under on TOU rates during the winter post-TOU (on average $0.18 more per week), the cost was less than during the summer post-TOU period. The change in costs expressed here does not reflect any reduced costs that may have resulted from conservation. For example, if the households were shown to have a conservation effect, they might have lower electricity costs. Additionally, the changes in costs do not reflect any additional fees or charges that might be attributed to the smart meter installation and the Smart Metering Initiative (e.g., additional fees from Milton Hydro). In conclusion, TOU rates appear to be ineffective at motivating these lower-income and senior-headed households in Milton, Ontario to shift electricity from on-peak periods to off-peak periods, however, a reduction in electricity usage may be attributed to TOU rates. Further research is required to confirm these effects. It is important to note that some of the lower-income and senior-headed households in this study appeared to see an increase in their electricity bill, particularly during the summer TOU period. Lower-income and senior-headed households are thought to be less able to shift electricity consumption, therefore it is important to develop mechanisms to identify households that are at risk of bill increases.

During the 2008 spike in oil prices, oil companies and government officials were brought under close scrutiny as many Americans began to question why prices were able to rise so quickly. Americans had become accustomed to living in an economy where cheap oil was the norm, and demanded answers when that situation changed. What most of them did not know is that they were repeating history and mimicking the response to the 1973 oil embargo. Just as in 2008, the United States faced a crisis in 1973 with which it was unprepared to effectively cope. This thesis analyzes the reasons for and consequences of this lack of preparation in 1973 drawing on the writings of major policy makers and leaders of the time, most notably Henry Kissinger, Anwar el-Sadat, and Richard Nixon, Senate hearings testimony, recently declassified government documents detailing plans for U.S. invasion, and contemporary newspapers which recorded public perception. I argue that decades of living with cheaply priced oil, an over reliance on multinational corporations and a lack of understanding of Middle Eastern resentment toward these oil companies, combined with a fundamental misunderstanding of how oil and politics could be linked brought the United States to the ultimate near-decision of invading the Middle East. The 1973 oil embargo brought the United States face-to-face with the consequences of reliance on foreign oil and with the hardships that resulted from it. The United States had relied on oil companies to manage their interests in the Middle East for decades but in 1973 the situation changed forever. I close by considering the ongoing deep ties between the United States and the Middle East that are present still. The same problems that existed in 1973 exist today, and until those are corrected the United States and its economy will be deeply tied to the Middle East and to events in the region.

在能源被最終消費之前，能源的開採、運輸或轉換過程都需另以能源為要素投入來源。現今再生能源生產技術尚處萌芽階段，許多技術之生產未能通過「能源分析」而尚處於研究發展階段，此時政府若以促進再生能源總產量為政策目標，並獎勵能源生產，可能導致不具生產效率的再生能源技術被使用，進而造成能源耗竭與環境問題的擴大。 本研究提出現今再生能源補貼基礎的錯誤，會導致能源浪費的情況發生，進而造成政策目標與執行結果不一致。針對這樣的問題，本研究以簡單的模型解釋問題發生的原因，更針對問題癥結提出有效的解決方法，並得到不錯的結果。避免能源浪費具體的解決方針為，改變舊有補貼「能源粗產出」的形式，政策目標應朝社會「能源淨產出」最適的方向發展，而這也是主要的研究重點所在。最後研究仍認為，讓所有能源價格反映其生產的社會成本，才是導正能源市場扭曲最佳的方法。 / The extraction, processing, transformation, and delivering of energy all need energy itself as an input. However, the technology for producing renewable energy seldom passes the energy analysis and is still in its infancy. If the government regards promoting the total output of renewable energy as a policy goal at this moment, it may induce inefficient technology to be used and may accelerate the exhaustion of natural resources and the degradation of environment. This study found that subsidy for encouraging renewable energy production based on gross output fails to solve the problem of market failure. It will lead to a waste of energy, and then cause the policy goal to be inconsistent with social optimality. This study explicitly solved the problem with a net output model. The contribution of this study is to prove that policy goal for renewable energy production should base itself on net output instead of on gross output. The best policy for solving market failure is to let energy price reflect its social cost.

Thesis (M. Sc.)--University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 67-69).

This thesis addresses the problems associated with security of the electricity supply in the UK. The British electricity supply industry has experienced a significant structural change. Competition has been brought into the electricity industry and a single wholesale electricity market of Great Britain has been established. The evolution of the British electricity market raises new challenges, such as improving the liquidity of wholesale markets and developing clean energy. The wholesale electricity prices are less transparent and trading arrangements are very complex in the British electricity market. In this thesis a fundamental model, called a stack model, has been developed in order to forecast wholesale electricity prices. The objective of the stack model is to identify the marginal cost of power output based on the fuel prices, carbon prices, and availability of power plants. The stack model provides a reasonable marginal cost curve for the industry which can be used as an indicator for the wholesale electricity price. In addition, the government's targets for climate change and renewable energy bring new opportunities for wind energy. Under the large wind energy penetration scenario the security of the energy supply will be essential. We have modelled the correlations between wind speed data for a set of wind farms. The correlation can be used to measure the portfolio risk of the wind farms. Electricity companies should build their portfolio of wind farms with low or negative correlations in order to hedge the risk from the intermittency of wind. We found that the VAR(1) model is superior to other statistic models for modelling correlations between wind speeds of a wind farm portfolio.

published_or_final_version / Environmental Management / Master / Master of Science in Environmental Management

In terms of economic development, internal availability of energy in a region means the capability to produce essential goods and services for the improvement in the quality of life of all the economic agents. Economic development consists in large part of harnessing increasing amounts of energy for productive purposes or by making more efficient use of available energy resources. In this dissertation, the future electricity supply and demand interactions are examined for seven countries in West Africa: Benin, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Niger, Nigeria, Togo, and Upper Volta. A description of the primary energy resources (coal, hydro, natural gas, and oil) available in each country is presented. The future demands for electricity in the medium term (1980-1989) are projected through econometric models developed in the study. Two sectorial models for each country's economy, the residential sector, and the commercial and industrial sector, are presented. Multiple regression analysis is applied in the estimation of all demand equations. Major determinants for electricity demand used in the estimation for the residential sector were average price of electricity, real personal income, and the number of households with access to electricity. Data on these variables were obtained from international organisations such as the United Nations and from government publications for the period 1960-1977. Each of these determinants was found to be significant for most countries; however, their relative importance differ across countries. Similarly, average price of electricity, real output, and employment were major determinants used and found to be significant in the demand for electricity in the commercial and industrial sector of all countries. Price and income elasticities were obtained from the estimated equations. A general multi-region supply model was developed to structure the future electricity supply possibilities in the countries involved. The objective of this model, using linear programming, was to seek the least-cost combination of resources (primary energy, capital, and technology) for the production of electricity. The impacts of various levels of resource availability on average cost of electricity were examined for each country, and for joint development efforts using a non-integer, deterministic, linear version of the general model. The application of the supply and demand models to West Africa over the decade to 1989 reveals that except for Nigeria, all countries in the region will require fossil fueled systems to supply additional demands for electricity, because all hydro resources would have to be exploited by the mid-1980s. This will lead to higher costs in producing electricity. However, Nigeria is expected to have excess electrical energy if plans initiated in its third development plan are completed. The extension of transmission lines between Nigeria and Benin could effectively distribute the relatively cheaper energy from Nigeria to other countries, since adequate transmission network already exists between most of the countries.

Susidomėjimas ateities studijomis kaip moksline veikla ypač padidėjo pastaraisiais metais, tai paskatino poreikis prognozuoti galimus socialinius, ekonominius, ekologinius ar politinius pokyčius sparčiai besivystančiame pasaulyje. Socialiniuose bei politikos moksluose prognostiniai metodai ilgą laiką buvo laikomi nepatikimais, tačiau, pastaruoju metu, suvokdami prognozavimą kaip neatsiejamą strateginio planavimo dalį politinių procesų tyrėjai vis dažniau taiko scenarijų konstravimo metodą, mėgindami atrasti galimus ateities įvykių raidos variantus. Patikimas energijos išteklių tiekimas yra vienas pagrindinių valstybės saugumo garantų. Ateities energetikos sektoriaus vystymasis priklauso nuo daugelio kintamųjų, tokių kaip augantis energijos poreikis, aplinkosaugos reikalavimai, technologinis progresas, liberalizavimo procesai ir t.t., todėl norint tinkamai pasiruošti galimiems pokyčiams reikalingas nuoseklus ir racionalus politinis planavimas. Labai svarbu įvertinti būsimus iššūkius, galimybes bei tikėtinas raidos kryptis, o scenarijų kūrimas yra tinkamiausias metodinis įrankis šiems tikslams pasiekti. Pagrindinis darbo tikslas yra sukonstruoti galimus Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Lenkijos energetinio saugumo scenarijus. Norint pasiekti šį tikslą pirmiausiai reikia apsibrėžti energetinio saugumo sąvoką bei scenarijų konstravimo metodą. Svarbu apžvelgti visų trijų valstybių energetikos sektorius, jų stipriąsias ir silpnąsias puses. Kadangi Lietuva, Latvija ir Lenkija yra Europos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Over the last decade policy analysts around the world demonstrate a growing interest in future studies. It is influenced by the need to foresee economic, social or political changes in rapidly developing world. For a long time future studies in political and social sciences were considered unreliable. However, in the recent years, foresight became an important part of strategic planning, thus scenario building method is more and more often used by policy analysts. Uninterrupted and reliable energy supply is one of the main pillars of country’s national security. Future development of the energy sector depends on many variables such as the growing energy demand, the technological development, the liberalization of the energy markets etc. Therefore, if countries want to prepare properly for possible changes, consistent and rational political planning is needed. It is very important to assess the future challenges, possibilities and the most likely trends of development, whereas scenario building is the most suitable method for reaching these objectives. The main objective of this research paper is to build possible energy security scenarios for Lithuania, Latvia and Poland. First of all, to achieve this objective one needs to define energy security and scenario building method. It is also important to review the energy sector of each of the three countries, in order to find strengths, weaknesses and main threats to their security. The EU common energy policy has a direct... [to full text]

Rusijos įtaka, formuojant Europos Sąjungos energetikos politiką ir Europos energetinį saugumą yra vienas iš svarbiausių ir aktualiausių klausimų. Kadangi, Rusija yra viena iš didžiausių energetinių išteklių tiekėjų į Europos Sąjungą, Rusija gali įtakoti sprendimų priėmimą Europos Sąjungoje, kurie yra susiję su energetikos politika. Europos Sąjunga yra valstybių narių asociacija, kuri veikia vieningai daugelyje sričių, tačiau atsižvelgiant į energetikos sektorių, kiekviena valstybė energetikos problemas sprendžia atskirai ir turi savo interesus. Europos Sąjunga neturi vieningos energetikos politikos, todėl Rusijai yra lengviau įtakoti politinius sprendimus Europos Sąjungoje, naudojantis energetiniais ištekliais. Magistrinio darbo tikslas – pažvelgti koks yra Rusijos vaidmuo, formuojant Europos Sąjungos energetikos politiką ir energetinį saugumą. Siekiant įgyvendinti tikslą, darbe analizuojama Europos Sąjungos energetinių išteklių priklausomybė nuo Rusijos, aptariama Rusijos vykdoma politika ir strategija Europoje, analizuojami Europos Sąjungos energetikos politikos tikslai, energetinis saugumas, nagrinėjamas Rusijos ir Europos Sąjungos energetinis dialogas, aptariami energijos tiekimo šaltinių pagrindiniai diversifikavimo projektai ir jų trūkumai, o taip pat remiantis ekspertų interviu analizuojami Rusijos įtakos tikslai ir veiksmai Europos Sąjungos energetikos politikoje. Magistriniame darbe keliama hipotezė - Europos Sąjungos energetikos politika yra priklausoma nuo Rusijos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Russian influence in shaping European Union energy policy and energy security in Europe is one of the most important and pressing issues. Since, Russia is one of the largest suppliers of energy resources to the European Union. Russia is able influence decision-making in the European Union, with regard to energy policy. The European Union is an association of members, which acts unanimously in many areas, but given the energy division of European energy sectors, each country's energy problems are dealt with separately and follow their own interests. The European Union does not have a single energy policy, so it is easier for Russia to influence political decisions in the by using its energy resources to gain political concessions. The Masters aim is to look at the role Russia plays in forming the European Union's energy policy and energy security. In order to achieve the objective of the work the European Union’s energy resources and dependence on Russia are analyzed, in addition to Russia’s policy and strategy in Europe, the European Union's energy policy objectives concerning energy security, the issue of Russia and the European Union energy dialogue. The main sources of energy supply diversification projects and their deficiencies as well as expert interviews are analyzed on the basis of Russia’s declared objectives and actions toward the European Union's energy policy. Master work in assuming – the main conclusion that the European Union energy policy is dependent on... [to full text]

It is agreed that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy and transport systems must be reduced. Technical means exist to reduce GHG emissions from these sources. However, these emission-reduction measures are not implemented to a high enough degree. In this thesis, it is assumed that this is because the reduction of GHG emissions from energy and transport systems is a wicked problem. Unlike a tame problem, which has an unambiguous definition and a finite number of well-defined solutions, a wicked problem is difficult to define, and its solutions are often intertwined with the problem. The “wickedness” of a wicked problem lies in the extreme difficulty of solving the problem, rather than in the problem itself. In this thesis, the wicked problem of reducing GHG emissions from energy and transport systems is studied by applying a sociotechnical systems approach to the introduction of renewable vehicle fuels, the production and use of biogas, the introduction of electric vehicles, and the sustainability of district heating. In addition, this thesis discusses how energy issues are approached in different contexts, and what implications different actions can have on GHG emissions. The analysis shows that a sociotechnical approach to energy systems analysis can offer insights with regard to how system boundaries are handled within GHG-emission assessments and energy and transport policy. By problematising the use of system boundaries in GHG-emission assessments, this thesis explains how attempts to reduce GHG emissions could add to the wicked problem of GHGemission reductions from energy and transport systems. GHG-emission assessments can give very different results depending on system boundaries. While these results can be used in attempts to solve this wicked problem, they can also contribute to complicating it. As solutions to wicked problems are mainly found in policy, the use of system boundaries in policy is studied. Results show that narrow system boundaries in energy and transport policy can hamper sustainable development of energy and transport systems. The use of wider system boundaries could facilitate approaches to solve the wicked problem of reducing GHG emissions from energy and transport systems by making the consequences and effects of policy actions more clearly visible. / Det är välkänt att energi- och transportsystemens utsläpp av växthusgaser måste minska. Tekniska förutsättningar för att minska utsläppen av växthusgaser från användning av energi och transporter existerar. Ändå genomförs inte åtgärder för att minska utsläpp av växthusgaser i tillräcklig utsträckning. I föreliggande avhandling antas detta bero på att minskandet av utsläpp av växthusgaser från energi- och transportsystem är ett ’wicked problem’. Ett sådant problem är svårdefinierat och motståndskraftigt mot lösningar, eftersom lösningarna ofta är sammanflätade med problemet. I avhandlingen studeras frågan om hur utsläpp av växthusgaser från energi- och transportsystem kan minska. Introduktion av förnybara drivmedel, produktion och användning av biogas, introduktion av elbilar, samt hållbarhet i fjärrvärmesystem är områden som studeras med hjälp av ett sociotekniskt angreppssätt. Detta innebär att teknik studeras som en integrerad del av samhället, där teknik både påverkar och påverkas av aktörer och sociala strukturer. Analysen visar att ett sociotekniskt angreppssätt kan ge insikter om hur systemgränser hanteras inom energisystemforskning samt inom energi- och transportpolicy. Värderingar av växthusgasutsläpp, som utförs inom energisystemforskning, kan ge vitt skilda resultat beroende på hur det studerade systemet avgränsats. Resultaten kan användas i försök att minska utsläpp av växthusgaser från energi- och transportsystem, men detta kan leda till att problemet försvåras ytterligare. I avhandlingen förklaras detta genom problematisering av systemavgränsningar i värderingar av växthusgasutsläpp. Eftersom lösningar på ’wicked problems’ oftast återfinns inom policy, studeras även systemavgränsningar i policy. Det visas att snäva systemgränser inom energi- och transportpolicy kan hindra hållbar utveckling av energi- och transportsystem. Vidgade systemgränser skulle kunna underlätta ansatser att minska utsläpp av växthusgaser från energi och transportsystem genom att synliggöra konsekvenser och effekter av policyåtgärder.