<p>Energy supply security is a hot topic today. It highly influences energy market, national security and also residents’ daily lives. However, due to different aims and study strategies, definitions of energy supply security are different. In this report, it is defined as stable energy supply processes that result from good infrastructure, delivery of energy sources, carriers and services, which are sturdily controlled by effective energy policies. Prices of energy supply system</p><p>are also maintained on a reasonable level over a continuous period thanks to the efficient crises assessment and management.</p><p>In order to make a comprehensive research, energy situation has been deeply investigated on worldwide, EU and Swedish levels, respectively. Results from these investments obviously certify that due to the big amount of populations, there are significant imbalances between energy supply and demands in developing countries. To make things better, these imbalances don’t exist in developed world, like EU Members including Sweden because of applications of advanced technologies and wide utilizations of renewable energy carriers. Oppositely, greenhouse gases emission is a severe problem in the world, which gives rise to temperature increasing year by year! Besides the global warming, some other factors also bring about uncertainties to energy supply security, so that efficient policies are necessary in order improve the recent</p><p>situations and to create a secure atmosphere for energy supply, such as</p><p>Directive 98/30/EC for natural gas supply security, Directive 2003/55/EC for integration and compatibility of the energy regulation and Directive 2003/54/EC, the first policy that regulates EU electricity market as well as IEM Directive, which is the improvement of Directive 2003/54/EC, etc.</p><p>Although several policies aiming at creation of competitive energy markets and achieving energy supply security, vulnerabilities still exist in EU energy supply system, such as limited primary energy sources and high dependence on nuclear powers, energy network capacity inadequacy, high voltage electricity transmission, etc. Concerning Swedish energy supply system, extreme low temperatures in winter, drilling technologies and high economic budgets for heat sources from underground, hurricanes, thunderstorms to wind turbines and man-made disruptions are all potential vulnerabilities. Regarding these negative aspects, recommendations are given on four different levels, which are global, EU, Swedish and individual perspectives. Specific suggestions to achieve energy supply security include independence of different energy supplies, to enhance international cooperation, periodic assessments and inspections for energy facilities, population control, to keep original energy policies updated, to enhance abilities to resist abnormal weather conditions, to develop heat pump technologies and try to use energy in efficient ways, etc.</p>

Energy supply security is a hot topic today. It highly influences energy market, national security and also residents’ daily lives. However, due to different aims and study strategies, definitions of energy supply security are different. In this report, it is defined as stable energy supply processes that result from good infrastructure, delivery of energy sources, carriers and services, which are sturdily controlled by effective energy policies. Prices of energy supply system are also maintained on a reasonable level over a continuous period thanks to the efficient crises assessment and management. In order to make a comprehensive research, energy situation has been deeply investigated on worldwide, EU and Swedish levels, respectively. Results from these investments obviously certify that due to the big amount of populations, there are significant imbalances between energy supply and demands in developing countries. To make things better, these imbalances don’t exist in developed world, like EU Members including Sweden because of applications of advanced technologies and wide utilizations of renewable energy carriers. Oppositely, greenhouse gases emission is a severe problem in the world, which gives rise to temperature increasing year by year! Besides the global warming, some other factors also bring about uncertainties to energy supply security, so that efficient policies are necessary in order improve the recent situations and to create a secure atmosphere for energy supply, such as Directive 98/30/EC for natural gas supply security, Directive 2003/55/EC for integration and compatibility of the energy regulation and Directive 2003/54/EC, the first policy that regulates EU electricity market as well as IEM Directive, which is the improvement of Directive 2003/54/EC, etc. Although several policies aiming at creation of competitive energy markets and achieving energy supply security, vulnerabilities still exist in EU energy supply system, such as limited primary energy sources and high dependence on nuclear powers, energy network capacity inadequacy, high voltage electricity transmission, etc. Concerning Swedish energy supply system, extreme low temperatures in winter, drilling technologies and high economic budgets for heat sources from underground, hurricanes, thunderstorms to wind turbines and man-made disruptions are all potential vulnerabilities. Regarding these negative aspects, recommendations are given on four different levels, which are global, EU, Swedish and individual perspectives. Specific suggestions to achieve energy supply security include independence of different energy supplies, to enhance international cooperation, periodic assessments and inspections for energy facilities, population control, to keep original energy policies updated, to enhance abilities to resist abnormal weather conditions, to develop heat pump technologies and try to use energy in efficient ways, etc.

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Įvairių sričių reiškinių matematiniai modeliai apima daug faktorių, kurie yra priklausomi nuo laiko, o taip pat pastebima jų tarpusavio priklausomybė. Vadinasi, norint nagrinėt šių reiškinių kitimo dėsnius, patartina sudaryti šių procesų dinaminį modelį. Šiame darbe dinaminio modelio sudarymui naudojami indikatoriai. Indikatorius tai specialus rodiklis, kuriuo pasinaudojus galima skaitiškai įvertinti svarbius analizuojamos srities faktorius. Indikatorių reikšmės gaunamos iš statistinių duomenų. Diferencialinių lygčių sistemos koeficientams skaičiuoti pristatomi du būdai: algebrinis ir mažiausių kvadratų metodai. Indikatorių išraiškas, gautas išsprendus diferencialinių lygčių sistemą, galima panaudoti prognozavimui. Tačiau įgyvendinant naujus projektus, šias indikatorių išraiškas reikia patikslinti, atsižvelgiant į naujus faktorius. Kadangi naujų faktorių reikšmės nėra tiksliai žinomos (gautos iš ekspertinio vertinimo), jų įtaka sistemai yra išreiškiama atsitiktiniu dydžiu su žinomu tikimybiniu skirstiniu. Naujų faktorių įtaka indikatoriams dinaminiame modelyje yra patikslinama Bajeso metodu. Kaip pavyzdys, sudarytas dinaminis modelis pritaikytas energijos tiekimo saugumo indikatorių modeliavimui. / In many areas mathematical models of processes take into acount variuos time dependent factors, they also can be dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model. In this master thesis we use indicators to describe dynamic model. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to inportant factors for the investigated sector. The values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. There are presented two calculation ways of differential equations systems coefficients (using algebraic and least square methods). Furthermore created dynamic model enables us to forecast the dynamics of the indicators according to new factors. Since the parameters of different new factors are not exactly known (got from expert judgement), their influence on indicators are expressed as random variables with known probablistic distributions. Indicators model based on historical data is adjusted using a Bayesian approach. For practical demonstration of the proposed dynamic model energy security assessment indicators were chosen.