The study focuses in the ecology and conservation of the ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) in the conservation and tourism concession owned by the ARCC. The study site is 11 000 hectares and it is located in the Las Piedras Region, north of Tambopata province, Madre de Dios. Camera traps were used to monitor the ocelot population during a 7-month period (from August 2012 to February 2013), divided in 9 rounds were 73 cameras were installed. The camera traps found 8 independent ocelots, from which only 3 (A1, A3 and A6) were recaptured in more than one occasion. The study did a capture-recapture analysis. The distance traveled by the ocelots from a capture to a recapture site was used to estimate the effective sampled area using the Mean Maximum Distance Moved - MMDM and Half MMDM. The methods yielded a density of 70 individuals/100km2 and 180 individuals/100km2, with full MMDM and Half MMDM, respectively. The study also analyzed the camera trap capture probability with PRESENCE software. Using a closed CR analysis followed by a model of constant capture probability, it yielded a capture probability rate of 0,3 (SE 0,0567). Finally, the ocelot’s habitat preference was also studied using a combination of satellite imagery and GIS software. It was found that these animals frequently use transects aimed for tourists, prefer sites near water and that they avoid bamboo forests. / Este estudio trata sobre la ecología y conservación del ocelote (Leopardus pardalis), en la concesión de conservación y ecoturismo del albergue Amazon Research and Conservation Center - ARCC. El área de estudio, de 11 000 hectáreas, se encuentra ubicada en el distrito de Las Piedras, norte de la provincia de Tambopata, departamento de Madre de Dios, Perú. Se utilizaron cámaras trampa para monitorear la población del felino en un período de siete meses (de agosto de 2012 a febrero de 2013), dividido en nueve rondas donde se instalaron 73 cámaras en total. Fueron ocho ocelotes independientes los identificados, de los cuales solo tres (A1, A3 y A6) fueron recapturados visualmente en más de una ocasión. Se realizó un análisis de captura-recaptura. Las distancias recorridas por los ocelotes entre captura y recaptura se utilizaron para estimar el área efectiva de muestreo usando el método del Promedio de la Máxima Distancia Recorrida - MMDM y Mitad del MMDM. Los métodos dieron como resultado una densidad poblacional de 700 ocelotes/100 km2 y 180 ocelotes/100 km2 con MMDM y Mitad del MMDM, respectivamente. Por otro lado, se analizó la probabilidad de captura de las cámaras trampa con el software PRESENCE. Utilizando un análisis poblacional cerrado y un modelo constante, se halló una detección por ronda de 0,3 (SE 0,0567). Finalmente, también se evaluó la preferencia de hábitat de los ocelotes a través de imágenes satélite. Se halló que la mayoría de los felinos usan transectos turísticos, que prefieren las llanuras aluviales cercanas a las riberas de los ríos y cochas, y que evitan los pantanos.

A república de Moçambique é um país localizado ao longo da costa Leste da África Austral, com a economia baseada essencialmente na prática da agricultura. A cultura do milho (Zea mays L.) é a mais importante, cultivada em regime de sequeiro, com rendimentos dependentes das condições meteorológicas. Modelos agrometeorológicos de estimativa de rendimentos de culturas alimentares são alternativas viáveis para tomada de decisão em medidas de segurança alimentar e abastecimento. O calendário agrícola e o sistema de produção tornam o uso de geotecnologias uma importante ferramenta para o monitoramento de culturas e o desenvolvimento de modelos de estimativa de rendimentos. Produtos de dados de sensoriamento remoto, como índices espectrais combinados com parâmetros agrometeorológicos podem melhorar as representações espaciais de rendimentos do milho em Moçambique. O ajuste de um modelo agrometeorológico espectral para estimativa de rendimentos do milho por regressão linear múltipla na província de Manica-Moçambique constituiu o objetivo do estudo. Foi realizado um mapeamento de áreas agrícolas por análise multitemporal do NDVI/MODIS e também foi avaliada a eficiência de variáveis agrometeorológicas e espectrais na estimativa de rendimentos do milho em uma área da província de Manica que envolve os distritos de Gondola, Manica, Mossurize e Sussundenga, responsáveis por mais de 80% da produção de milho na província nos anos de 2000 a 2009. Foi desenvolvido um modelo de início do ciclo do milho baseado em critérios de chuva, e estabelecendo um ciclo fixo do milho em 130 dias. A metodologia de mapeamento de áreas agrícolas consistiu em somatórios de imagens binárias geradas por diferença de NDVI máximo e mínimo ao longo do ciclo e estabelecimento de níveis de restrição com base em comparações com estatísticas oficiais por distrito. As variáveis agrometeorológicas testadas foram evapotranspiração relativa (ETr/ETm) e o índice de satisfação das necessidade de água (ISNA) calculados a partir de dados de estimativas de elementos meteorológicos do modelo do ECMWF. O conjunto de variáveis espectrais compreendiam composições de 16 dias de índices de vegetação EVI e NDVI provenientes do produto MOD13Q1 do sensor MODIS e o LSWI, gerado por diferença normalizada de bandas de refletância de superfície do infravermelho próximo e médio contidas no mesmo produto. O modelo agrometeorológico espectral envolveu as variáveis meteorológicas e espectrais como independentes sendo o rendimento médio e relativo, as variáveis dependentes ajustadas em um modelo de regressão múltipla. Todos os distritos, a exceção de Mossurize, geraram modelos com bom desempenho nas estimativas de rendimentos do milho e significado físico. O modelo regional, incluindo Gondola, Manica e Sussundenga e envolvendo o rendimento relativo foi o mais recomendado para estimativa de rendimentos do milho na região com r2 = 0,762 e RMSE de 9,46%. / Mozambique is a country located along the east coast of southern Africa, with an economy based primarily on agriculture. The Maize crop (Zea mays L.) is the most important crop, growing in rainfed conditions, with its yield dependent only on weather conditions. Agrometeorological models to forecast yields of food crops are viable alternatives for decision making on food safety measures and supply. The agricultural calendar and the production system make use of geotechnologies an important tool for crop monitoring and yield forecasting. Products from remote sensing data, combined with spectral indices and agrometeorological parameters can improve the spatial representations of maize yields in Mozambique. Setting an agrometeorological model to estimate the spectral yield of corn by multiple linear regression in Manica province, Mozambique was the objective of the study. Were conducted a mapping of agricultural areas by analyzing multitemporal NDVI / MODIS and also evaluated the effectiveness of spectral and meteorological variables in the estimated maize yield in an area of Manica province involving the districts of Gondola, Manica, Mossurize and Sussundenga responsible for more than 80% of corn production in the province in the years 2000 to 2009. A model was developed to estimate the beginnig of the corn cycle, using as a criteria the rainfall, and setting a fixed cycle of corn in 130 days. The methodology for mapping agricultural areas consisted of sums of binary images generated by the difference of maximum and minimum NDVI throughout the cycle and establishing levels of restriction based on comparisons with official statistics by district. Were tested the meteorological variables: the relative evapotranspiration (ETr / ETm) and the index of satisfaction of water needs (ISNA) calculated from data from meteorological model of ECMWF. The set of spectral variable were comprised of 16 days composition of vegetation indices NDVI and EVI from the MODIS product MOD13Q1 and LSWI generated from normalized difference of surface reflectance bands of near-infrared and medium infrared contained the same product. The meteorological and spectral variables was the set of independent variables and the average and relative yield were the set of dependent variables used to adjusted a multiple regression model, called agrometeorological-spectral model. To all districts, except for Mossurize were generated models with good performance in estimating the corn yield and with physical meaning. The regional model, including Gondola, Manica and Sussundenga and involving the relative yield was the most suitable for estimating corn yield in the region with r2 = 0.762 and RMSE of 9.46%.

No setor de mineração, a amostragem está presente no empreendimento mineral desde a fase da exploração até a lavra. Para diminuir a incerteza na previsão de teores, o planejamento de lavra requer adensamento da amostragem para garantir previsões acuradas e precisas. Acredita-se, que quanto maior a quantidade de amostras, maior a confiabilidade nas estimativa de teores. Na fase exploração, geralmente, a amostragem é realizada por furos de sondagem com coroas diamantadas, que é uma técnica com alto custo de execução e produz amostras com acuracidade e precisão. Nesta fase, existem poucos dados com alta qualidade. Já na fase operacional, a amostragem é realizada por outras técnicas devido a restrições orçamentárias e ao alto custo de execução da sondagem diamantada. Em geral, estas amostras possuem baixa qualidade (imprecisas e inacuradas) e não são submetidas a protocolos de controle que qualidade. Logo, nesta fase existem muitos dados com baixa qualidade com erro de vies e precisao. Esta dissertação avalia o impacto do uso de dados imprecisos no planejamento de curto prazo. Para isto, foram analisados dois bancos de dados distintos. O primeiro estudo utiliza o banco de dados exaustivo Walker Lake, que foi usado e considerado como o teor real do depósito. Inicialmente, as amostras foram obtidas a partir do conjunto de dados com espaçamento regular de 20×20 m e 5×5 m, a partir do banco de dados exaustivo. Um erro relativo de ±25% (imprecisão) e 10% de viés foram adicionados aos dados espaçados a 5×5 m (dados geológicos curto prazo) em diferentes cenários. Depois foram estudadas diferentes metodologias para incorporar a informação imprecisa nas estimativas. O segundo estudo é realizado em uma mina de ouro, com dois tipos de dados diferentes, a furos de sondagem (dados primários) e circulação reversa (dados secundários). Nestes estudos foram investigadas duas metodologias: cokrigagem e krigagem ordinária, e os dados foram utilizados para estimar blocos. As curvas teor tonelagem, análise de deriva e a classificação errônea dos blocos foram avaliadas para cada estudo. Para o banco de dados, Walker Lake, os resultados mostraram que o uso da cokrigagem ordinária estandardizada é a melhor metodologia em situações que existem dados imprecisos e enviesados, com boa correlação entre as variáveis primárias e secundárias. As estimativas produzidas são mais próximas da distribuição real dos blocos, reduzindo o erro de classificação dos blocos. Já para o banco de dados de Ouro, as amostras possuem moderada correlaçao e continuidade espacial curta para pequenas distâncias do depósito. Nesta situação, a correção da imprecisão da variável secundária utilizando a krigagem ordinária produziram melhores resultados com estimativas menos enviesadas e melhor classificação dos blocos como minério e estéril. / Decisions starting at mineral exploration through mining are based on grade block models obtained from samples. To decrease the uncertainty in the estimates, the short term mining planning requires additional sampling to ensure accurate and precise predictions. As more samples are made available, there is trend towards more reliable estimates. In the exploration stage, usually, sampling is performed by diamond drill holes (DDH), which are expensive but produces accurate and precise samples. In this stage there are few data with high quality. In the production stage, sampling is obtained by other techniques due to the high costs of DDHs. In general, these samples have low quality and are not controlled by QA / QC protocols. This study evaluates the impact of using imprecise data in short-term mineplanning. For this, it was analyzed two different data sets. The first case used the exhaustive Walker Lake dataset as the source to obtain the true and sampled grades. Initially, samples were obtained from the exhaustive dataset at regularly spaced grids at 20 × 20 m and 5 × 5 meters. A relative error (imprecision) of ± 25% and a 10% bias were added to the data spaced at 5 × 5 m (short-term geological data) in different scenarios. The second study is in a gold mine with two different types of data obtained from diamond drilling holes (DDH_Hard data) and reverse circulation (RC_Soft data).To combine these different types of data, two methodologies were investigated: cokriging and ordinary kriging. Both types of data were used to estimate a block model using the two methodologies. The grade tonnage curves and swath plots were used to compare the results against the true block grades at the same block support. In addition, the block misclassification was evaluated. In the Walker Lake the results show that standardized ordinary cokriging is a better methodology for imprecise and biased data and produces estimates closer to the true grade block distribution, reducing block misclassification. For the data set at the underground mine gold, the samples had moderate correlation and short spatial continuity for small distances at this deposit. In this situation, the estimates using ordinary kriging with hard and soft data (standardized and re-escaled) produced better results with less bias and better blocks classification of ore and waste.

Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-01T22:56:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_7425_INGRID BROMERSCHENKEL.pdf: 1154542 bytes, checksum: 3423eda335571be10962af53db93b9b4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-25 / Na clínica equina frequentemente se depara com a dificuldade de interpretar resultados de exames bioquímicos devido a escassas referências para a comparação. A glicose é o principal substrato utilizado pelo organismo para a realização de diferentes funções biológicas. A glicose sanguínea está em constante fluxo, sendo transportada a diversas partes do corpo e em cada espécie animal ocorrem variações da glicemia principalmente em função da idade, dieta e condições fisiológicas. A literatura cita inúmeros modelos matemáticos para estimativa de peso em cavalos, com base em medidas corporais e fitas métricas adaptadas. Entretanto, esses nem sempre são adaptados para todas as raças e idades, e algumas técnicas de estimativa de peso corporal reproduzem resultados mais precisos que outros dependendo desses fatores. Dessa forma, este estudo objetivou estabelecer as concentrações séricas proteicas de potros sadios da raça Mangalarga Marchador no período neonatal; avaliar a utilização do glicosímetro portátil para a mensuração da glicemia, considerando como controle os resultados mensurados por meio de teste laboratorial; determinar se a variação dos valores de glicemia mensurados pelo glicosímetro portátil esta de acordo com a Food and Drug Administration; determinar as concentrações plasmáticas de glicose durante o período neonatal utilizando-se o teste laboratorial; comparar quatro metodologias para a mensuração de peso e verificar a precisão de cada uma delas em relação ao peso real do animal mensurado em balança comercial. Não houve variação significativa das frações proteicas entre os momentos estudados. Os potros estudados não apresentaram alterações significativas nas concentrações glicêmicas durante o período neonatal. O glicosímetro portátil demonstrou precisão similar ao teste laboratorial na determinação dos níveis glicêmicos em potros neonatos. A média da taxa de erro do glicosímetro permaneceu dentro do limite exigido pela Food and Drug Administration. Em potros com 12 horas até 30 dias de idade pode-se adotar a F2 eFMAPE como método alternativo para mensuração de peso, já que os resultados de dessas metodologias não diferiram do obtido pela balança. / In equine clinic often faced with the difficulty of interpreting results of biochemical tests due to scant references for comparison. Glucose is the main substrate used by the body to perform different biological functions. Blood glucose is in constant flux, being transported to various parts of the body and within each animal species variations of glycemia primarily a function of age, diet and physical conditions occur. The literature cites a number of mathematical models to estimate horses weight, based on body measurements and adapted tapes generated by these models. However, these models or weight tapes are not always suitable for all breeds and ages, and some techniques for estimating body weight reproduce more accurate results than others depending on these factors. Thus, this study aimed to establish the protein serum concentrations in healthy foals Mangalarga Marchador the neonatal period; evaluate the use of portable glucometer for blood glucose measurements, considering how control the results measured by laboratory test and determine if the variation of glycemia measured by portable glucose is in agreement with the Food and Drug Administration; determine plasma glucose concentrations during the neonatal period using laboratory testing and; compare four methods for measuring weight and verify the accuracy of each in relation to the actual weight of the animal measured in trade balance. There was no significant variation of protein fractions between the times. The foals were no significant changes in glucose concentrations during the neonatal period. The portable glucose showed similar accuracy for laboratory test to determine glucose levels in neonatal foals. The average rate of glucometer error remained within the limits required by the Food and Drug Administration. And in foals 12 hours to 30 days old can adopt the F2 and FMAPE as an alternative method for measuring weight, since the results of any of these methodologies differ measured by the scales.

Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-01T22:56:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_7425_INGRID BROMERSCHENKEL.pdf: 1154542 bytes, checksum: 3423eda335571be10962af53db93b9b4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-25 / Na clínica equina frequentemente se depara com a dificuldade de interpretar resultados de exames bioquímicos devido a escassas referências para a comparação. A glicose é o principal substrato utilizado pelo organismo para a realização de diferentes funções biológicas. A glicose sanguínea está em constante fluxo, sendo transportada a diversas partes do corpo e em cada espécie animal ocorrem variações da glicemia principalmente em função da idade, dieta e condições fisiológicas. A literatura cita inúmeros modelos matemáticos para estimativa de peso em cavalos, com base em medidas corporais e fitas métricas adaptadas. Entretanto, esses nem sempre são adaptados para todas as raças e idades, e algumas técnicas de estimativa de peso corporal reproduzem resultados mais precisos que outros dependendo desses fatores. Dessa forma, este estudo objetivou estabelecer as concentrações séricas proteicas de potros sadios da raça Mangalarga Marchador no período neonatal; avaliar a utilização do glicosímetro portátil para a mensuração da glicemia, considerando como controle os resultados mensurados por meio de teste laboratorial; determinar se a variação dos valores de glicemia mensurados pelo glicosímetro portátil esta de acordo com a Food and Drug Administration; determinar as concentrações plasmáticas de glicose durante o período neonatal utilizando-se o teste laboratorial; comparar quatro metodologias para a mensuração de peso e verificar a precisão de cada uma delas em relação ao peso real do animal mensurado em balança comercial. Não houve variação significativa das frações proteicas entre os momentos estudados. Os potros estudados não apresentaram alterações significativas nas concentrações glicêmicas durante o período neonatal. O glicosímetro portátil demonstrou precisão similar ao teste laboratorial na determinação dos níveis glicêmicos em potros neonatos. A média da taxa de erro do glicosímetro permaneceu dentro do limite exigido pela Food and Drug Administration. Em potros com 12 horas até 30 dias de idade pode-se adotar a F2 eFMAPE como método alternativo para mensuração de peso, já que os resultados de dessas metodologias não diferiram do obtido pela balança. / In equine clinic often faced with the difficulty of interpreting results of biochemical tests due to scant references for comparison. Glucose is the main substrate used by the body to perform different biological functions. Blood glucose is in constant flux, being transported to various parts of the body and within each animal species variations of glycemia primarily a function of age, diet and physical conditions occur. The literature cites a number of mathematical models to estimate horses weight, based on body measurements and adapted tapes generated by these models. However, these models or weight tapes are not always suitable for all breeds and ages, and some techniques for estimating body weight reproduce more accurate results than others depending on these factors. Thus, this study aimed to establish the protein serum concentrations in healthy foals Mangalarga Marchador the neonatal period; evaluate the use of portable glucometer for blood glucose measurements, considering how control the results measured by laboratory test and determine if the variation of glycemia measured by portable glucose is in agreement with the Food and Drug Administration; determine plasma glucose concentrations during the neonatal period using laboratory testing and; compare four methods for measuring weight and verify the accuracy of each in relation to the actual weight of the animal measured in trade balance. There was no significant variation of protein fractions between the times. The foals were no significant changes in glucose concentrations during the neonatal period. The portable glucose showed similar accuracy for laboratory test to determine glucose levels in neonatal foals. The average rate of glucometer error remained within the limits required by the Food and Drug Administration. And in foals 12 hours to 30 days old can adopt the F2 and FMAPE as an alternative method for measuring weight, since the results of any of these methodologies differ measured by the scales.

Consumers are constantly evaluating quantitative information, such as the prices of different products, the time spent on an activity, or the distance covered during one day. Substantial research in psychology has demonstrated that judgments of quantity in one dimension (e.g., numbers) influence subsequent judgments on another dimension (e.g., time). The present research contributes to a growing body of work by exploring how the shared representation of time, space, and numbers affects consumer perceptions and behaviors. My first dissertation essay explores how the organization of time on a spatial plane affects temporal judgments, product evaluations, and intertemporal discounting (i.e., time-space interaction). It has been well documented that Western consumers typically arrange temporal sequences following a past-left, future-right spatial pattern. Merging insights gained from numerical cognition and time psychology, the author develops a framework to explain how displaying temporal sequences congruently with this spatial organization of time increases subjective estimations of time and biases consumers toward present rewards. My second dissertation essay seeks to understand how and why expressing quantitative information in symbolic code (i.e., “6”) compared to verbal code (i.e., “six”) affects magnitude judgments and product evaluations (i.e., time-number interaction). Two rival accounts to explain the symbol-verbal effect are described and tested: (1) a systematic processing account based on Arabic symbols’ perceptual and cognitive features and (2) a fluency account based on the frequency of use and facilitation of processing Arabic symbols. This research has important managerial implications related to the effective communication of quantitative information.

Sustainability concerns have become prevalent in environmental, societal, and economic systems. To address education towards sustainability the need for explicit instruction in sustainable systems is apparent; however, it is underrepresented in American schools. Despite the emergence of sustainability topics in the literature, few have addressed teacher dispositions about providing this needed instruction and none have reported quantitative measures with acceptable estimates of reliability and validity.Dispositions are defined as the tendency to act in a particular manner that aligns with an individual’s belief which can develop and change over time, and are influenced by the experiences and circumstances faced by the individual. To provide the necessary instruction not only are instructors responsible for the curricular content and pedagogical content, but most importantly, they must possess positive dispositions towards providing this instruction. The purpose of this study was to construct and determine estimates of the validity and reliability of the Dispositions Toward Teaching Sustainable Systems Instrument. Using a sequential mixed methods design and Luyt’s Framework for instrument development the researcher, using qualitative methods such as interviews, identified themes that were supportive of the theoretical construct. The four themes that emerged were: administrative support, outdoor resources, collaboration, and professional development, all receiving above 80% interrater agreement (n=3 judges). The quantitative aspect identified the key indicators (items) and their estimates of reliability and validity, and their goodness of fit to the four theoretical constructs. Content validity estimates of the items generated from the interviews were explored using expert judges (n=2) in the area of sustainability education, also achieving above 80% agreement. Participants enrolled in three succeeding semesters of the Teaching Elementary Science Methods course (n=233) were then used to further estimate the reliability (α >.08), construct validity (normed chi-Square = 2.04; GFI=.86 RMSEA =.076; NFI=.96 CFI =.98 PGFI=.634 binomial index of model fit ppR=.271 R2=.073 (4,227)=4.5 pp

The purpose of this thesis was to acquaint the reader on the nature of the uncertainty present in construction price forecasting and to introduce an environment that has the ability to integrate these uncertainties with greater consistency than that possessed by available price models. The objective of this thesis was to establish that uncertainty can be explicitly treated in price forecasting models. This would have two benefits to concerned parties. Firstly, the effectiveness of price forecasts could be improved as provision could be made for any uncertain variable. This will be of great benefit to the client, as a more accurate assessment of the building process could be established at an earlier stage of the design process. Secondly, the price forecast will be more useful to quantity surveyors, architects and clients, as it would 'quantify' the extent of the uncertainty which could be provided for in a more meaningful manner. In order to establish that existing price models do not deal with the uncertainty present at the time of forecasting, the price models used by practitioners were evaluated against the different types of uncertainty found at the different stages of the price forecasting process. Once this had been established, eight techniques that have the ability to treat various forms of uncertainty, were presented. After analysing the techniques abilities to cope with the uncertainties associated with price forecasting, it was established that certain of these techniques do have the ability, and are suitable, to be incorporated into the price forecasting process. From the results of a questionnaire survey conducted on quantity surveying offices in South Africa, it was found that the price models used by practitioners do not take uncertainty into account, and have in fact, the potential for uncertainty inducement. Some of the uncertainty found to be present in the preparation of a construction price forecast include the lack or incompleteness of design information, the uncertainty in the communication of design information, the variability in the data used by quantity surveyors and, the uncertainty in the choice of price model during the different stages of the design process. As a possible solution to the problem of uncertainty, an expert system environment, utilising a three-dimensional classification of uncertainty, has been proposed. It has been proved that this environment has the ability to cater for the uncertainty associated with the price forecasting process, as well as having the attribute of providing the user with the reasoning behind the logic that the expert system has followed, a characteristic not possible with the traditional forms of price models. From the findings of this thesis, it can be concluded that the methods of price modelling used by quantity surveying practitioners, are unable to take uncertainty into account effectively. It can also be concluded that an expert system environment has the ability to handle the different forms of uncertainty found at the various stages of construction design. The proposed model is conceptual in nature and has not been tested in practice. It is therefore recommended that further research be carried out in this field, with the aim of producing a construction price forecasting expert system which utilises the proposed three-dimensional classification of uncertainty.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the leading contributor to global warming and climate change. The increases in fossil fuel emissions, deforestation, and changes of land use have resulted in increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere from 280 ppm in 1765 to 390 ppm in 2010. Carbon mitigation policies for managing the biosphere to increase net CO2 uptake are dependent upon accurate knowledge of the biosphere fluxes. However, Northern Hemisphere bottom-up and top-down biosphere flux estimates show significant discrepancies, especially in North America. In this study, we design an analysis framework that integrates observations with models with the goal of reducing some of the key uncertainties in estimating CO2 fluxes and concentrations in the Midwest, USA. In this research, the biosphere model, WRF-VPRM model (Ahmadov et al., 2007) is used to simulate CO2 biosphere fluxes and atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the Midwest, USA at high spatial resolution. Reducing uncertainties in the predictions is accomplished by improving the model transport configurations (i.e. the WRF planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, the number of vertical layers and the horizontal resolution), utilizing a more detailed land cover map, optimizing VPRM photosynthesis and respiratory parameters for major crops (i.e. corn and soybean) against flux towers, and integrating CO2 tall tower observations and model through a top-down data assimilation method to improve the VPRM model parameters and in turn improving the flux and concentration estimates. The WRF-VPRM model configuration with the YonSei University PBL scheme produced the most accurate CO2 concentration predictions at the WBI tower at all three tower levels with the maximum error reduction of 17.1%. Increasing the number of vertical layers improved the CO2 estimates during nighttime and early morning, especially at 30 m, where the error was reduced by a maximum of ~ 20%. The differences in the monthly average net fluxes over the State of Iowa between the high resolution WRF-VPRM model and coarse resolution Carbon Tracker were significant, 71%, 18%, and 62% in June, July, and August, respectively. The fluxes calculated by the VPRM model are primarily dependent on 4 model parameters, half saturation value of photosynthesis (PAR0), light use efficiency (ë), and respiration parameters (á and â). These parameters are specific to vegetation types, regions, and time period. The default settings do not distinguish between corn and soybean, which are major crops in the Midwest and have significant different photosynthesis rates. When corn and soybean are explicitly included in the model, the flux estimate changed by 31.3% at 12 pm and 24.5% at 12 am. Two different methods were used to optimize for the VPRM model parameters which are optimization against Ameriflux NEE and using a top-down variational method. The simulation using optimized parameters from the variational method reduced the error during the daytime from 11.6 ppm to 7.8 ppm. The average fluxes optimized using the variational method changed by 17% and 38.6% at 12 pm and 12 am, respectively. The more accurate VPRM parameters lead to the more accurate biosphere fluxes, which will ease the evaluation of benefits of different carbon mitigation policies.

Due to the increased scrutiny of construction costs for infrastructure projects by the public and legislators, it is becoming increasing important for project developers to prepare accurate conceptual cost estimates for transportation tunnel projects at the feasibility stage to aid in making investment decisions. Past studies have emphasized that tunnel-project costs have been significantly underestimated, and cost uncertainties and risks have been identified as the cause of cost under or overestimation. A broad understanding of the factors that contribute to cost underestimation is important as it enables researchers and estimators to develop appropriate functions, evaluate, and implement them to produce realistic cost estimates. This study was aimed at developing parametric cost estimation functions and quantifying their risks for transportation tunnel projects. A comprehensive background study of more than 39 published articles on transportation tunnel infrastructure projects was conducted through a systematic literature review and 40 key estimating parameters that may impact project costs and the associated project logistics were identified. Data from completed tunnel projects were collected and used to develop the parametric cost equations. Exploratory analyses were first performed to discover the correlations among tunnel costs and tunnel cost parameters/drivers. The purpose of this effort was to assess if a relationship existed between tunnel variables and tunnel project cost estimates. Parametric cost estimation functions were then developed for different tunnel applications. There has been no comprehensive study performed to date to develop parametric cost estimation functions that incorporated risk and uncertainty for transportation tunnel projects. Two representative sample case studies were performed and Monte Carlo simulation was used to quantify the associated risks. The results from the case studies illustrate the need to use appropriate techniques to simulate tunnel costs and quantify the risks associated with the estimates. The findings of the study provide a methodology to estimate the costs of transportation tunnels and quantify the uncertainties and risks associated with the costs. The methodology developed in this research could help reduce the incidence of project cost underestimation and alleviate some of the controversies surrounding cost overruns in transportation tunnel projects.