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11	The Simulation & Evaluation of Surge Hazard Using a Response Surface Method in the New York Bight Bredesen, Michael H 01 January 2015 (has links) Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method to re-evaluate surge hazard probabilities for Flood Insurance Rate Maps in the New York – New Jersey coastal areas, also termed the New York Bight. As originally developed, this method required many combinations of storm parameters to statistically characterize the local climatology for numerical model simulation. Even though high-performance computing efficiency has vastly improved in recent years, researchers have utilized different “Optimal Sampling” techniques to reduce the number of storm simulations needed in the traditional Joint Probability Method. This manuscript presents results from the simulation of over 350 synthetic tropical cyclones designed to produce significant surge in the New York Bight using the hydrodynamic Advanced Circulation numerical model, bypassing the need for Optimal Sampling schemes. This data set allowed for a careful assessment of joint probability distributions utilized for this area and the impacts of current assumptions used in deriving new flood-risk maps for the New York City area. Thesis University of North Florida UNF Natural Hazards Storm Surge Tropical Cyclone Joint Probability Method Annual Exceedance Probability New York Bight Civil Engineering Climate Earth Sciences Meteorology Numerical Analysis and Computation Ocean Engineering Oceanography Other Engineering Other Mathematics Other Statistics and Probability Probability Risk Analysis Statistical Models Statistics and Probability Sustainability

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The Simulation & Evaluation of Surge Hazard Using a Response Surface Method in the New York Bight