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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
351

O princípio da confiança legítima sob a perspectiva das práticas reiteradamente observadas pelas autoridades administrativas em matéria tributária / The principle of legitimate expectations from the perspective of the practices observed repeatedly by administrative authorities on tax matters

Tilkian, Guilherme 23 May 2014 (has links)
Este trabalho versa sobre a aplicação do princípio da confiança legítima no Direito Tributário brasileiro, com foco no art. 100, inciso III, do Código Tributário Nacional (CTN), que trata das práticas reiteradamente observadas pelas autoridades administrativas. Parte-se da origem do princípio, aproximando a investigação por meio do princípio da segurança jurídica, da certeza do direito e da irretroatividade; em seguida, diferencia-se a proteção da confiança da boa-fé objetiva e prossegue-se pelo princípio da legalidade e a evolução jurisprudencial a respeito da conservação positiva ou negativa dos atos eivados de vícios quando deles se originaram direitos. Foca-se, então, nos requisitos para a configuração da confiança digna de proteção e os mecanismos de proteção positiva ou negativa dessa confiança. Desse ponto em diante, o estudo passa a desenhar a proteção da confiança legítima nos atos do Poder Executivo, por meio da análise do art. 100 do CTN, como fonte secundária de direito tributário. Conceituam-se as normas complementares, a origem e sua função, para então proceder-se ao exame específico das práticas reiteradamente observadas pelas autoridades administrativas e sua relação com o princípio da confiança legítima. Em seguida, analisa-se o parágrafo único do art. 100 do CTN para avaliar se são corretas a não atualização monetária da base de cálculo do tributo e a admissão de retroatividade parcial dos efeitos do reconhecimento da ilegalidade da prática administrativa em que confiou o contribuinte. Examina-se, de início, se a inércia da Administração Pública acerca de lançamento cuja homologação se dê de maneira tácita seria um silêncio positivo a configurar prática reiterada suficiente para dar respaldo à proteção do parágrafo único do art. 100 do CTN. O estudo avalia se, no caso dos tributos indiretos, pela impossibilidade de o contribuinte transferir ao consumidor a exação, justificaria uma proteção maior do que aquela conferida pelo próprio parágrafo único do art. 100 do CTN. Por derradeiro, a norma do art. 146 é confrontada com a do art. 100, inciso III, ambos do CTN, para fins de estabelecer os campos de aplicação de uma e de outra e em que medida elas se relacionam com a proteção da confiança legítima. / This work deals with the application of the principle of legitimate expectations in Brazilian tax law, focusing on Article 100, section III of the Brazilian Tax Code, which deals with the practices observed repeatedly by administrative authorities. The proposed scientific part of the origin of the principle, approaching research through the principle of legal security, legal certainty and non-retroactivity. Then differentiates the protection of reliable objective good faith and goes by the principle of legality and judicial developments regarding conservation (positive or negative) of the acts riddled with addictions when their rights originated. Focuses, then, on the requirements for setting up trust worthy of protection and the protection mechanisms positive or negative that trust. Thereafter the study is to draw back the protection of legitimate expectations in the acts of the Executive, through the analysis of Article 100 of the Internal Revenue Code, as secondary sources of tax law. Conceptualize themselves supplementary rules, the origin and function, down to the specific scope of practice repeatedly observed by the administrative authorities and their relation to the principle of legitimate expectations. Then we analyze the sole paragraph of article 100 of the Internal Revenue Code to assess whether it is correct not to monetary base tax calculation and admission of retroactivity of the effects of partial recognition of the illegality of administrative practice that relied on the taxpayer. Turning to specific issues initially analyzed is the inertia of public administration, which tacitly approves taxes charged for approval, would be a positive silence configuring repeated practice enough to give birth to protect the sole paragraph of article 100 of the Tax Code national. The study evaluates whether, in the case of indirect taxes, the inability of the taxpayer to transfer the consumer the exaction would justify greater protection than that afforded by the sole paragraph of article 100 of the Internal Revenue Code. Finally, the norm of Article 146 is confronted with Article 100, item III, both of the National Tax Code, for purposes of establishing fields of application of one and the other and the extent to which both relate to the protection of legitimate expectations.
352

Crenças e expectativas sobre uso de álcool: avaliação do efeito do treinamento em intervenções breves / Beliefs and expectations about alcohol use: evaluation of the effect of training in brief interventions.

Lopes, Jane Moraes 07 April 2009 (has links)
INTRODUÇÃO: As Estratégias de Diagnóstico e Intervenções Breves (EDIB) propostas pela Organização Mundial de Saúde são consideradas efetivas para o diagnóstico e prevenção dos agravos decorrentes do uso do álcool. Atitudes, crenças e expectativas dos profissionais de saúde em relação ao uso de álcool influenciam o efeito destas novas propostas. OBJETIVO: Este trabalho propõe a avaliação do efeito do treinamento em EDIB sobre as crenças e expectativas a respeito do uso de álcool. MÉTODOS: O estudo é do tipo observacional, transversal, comparativo, sobre uma amostra de 88 profissionais da atenção primária à saúde, provenientes de Ribeirão Preto e região, que concordaram em participar da pesquisa conforme os procedimentos éticos recomendados, treinados pelo Programa de Ações Integradas para Prevenção e Atenção ao Uso de Álcool e Drogas na Comunidade (PAIPAD) no período de 2003 a 2006. Os dados foram coletados através de questionários individuais aplicados antes do treinamento e no período de 4 a 6 meses depois. Os questionários incluíram um formulário sócio-demográfico, o Teste de Conhecimento sobre álcool e Intervenções Breves (IB), o Inventário de Expectativas e Crenças Pessoais acerca do Álcool (IECPA) e um formulário de estimativas sobre o uso do AUDIT (Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test) e das IB. A amostra foi caracterizada quanto à prática e preparação profissional na atenção primária, papel, atitudes e crenças dos profissionais em relação aos problemas relacionados ao uso de álcool ou outras drogas pelos seus pacientes. RESULTADOS: No Teste de Conhecimento sobre álcool e Intervenções Breves, a pontuação média foi maior após o treinamento, passando de 4,1 para 5,57(Wilcoxon Test: z= -4,936; p 0,001). Os resultados médios do IECPA passaram de 93,45 pontos na fase pré para 78,74 pontos na fase pós-treinamento (Wilcoxon, z=-4,138; p 0,001). Através do teste de Spearman observou-se tendência à correlação positiva entre a aquisição de conhecimento e as variações no IECPA (p=0,095); o nível de conhecimento pré-treinamento e as estimativas de realização de EDIB(p=0,082); as estimativas de aplicação de AUDITS e o intervalo de tempo(p=0,009). As variações do IECPA se correlacionaram positivamente com as expectativas de aplicação de EDIB (Nonparametric Chi-Square: p=0,053). No Teste de Conhecimento, o nível médio (incompleto e completo) apresentou menor nível de aproveitamento que os outros níveis de escolaridade. As maiores variações no IECPA foram observadas entre os profissionais de nível de escolaridade superior (incompleto e completo). Os profissionais com ocupações de nível superior apresentaram maiores variações positivas quanto ao conhecimento que os de nível técnico, e maior redução na pontuação do IECPA. CONCLUSÕES: A estratégia de formação oferecida pelo PAIPAD foi efetiva, promovendo mudanças nas crenças e expectativas da equipe sobre uso de álcool, interferindo positivamente na conduta preventiva dos profissionais treinados junto aos pacientes. / BACKGROUND: The Strategies of Screening, Brief Intervention and Referral to Treatment (SBIRT) proposed by World Health Organization (WHO) are considered effective to perform the diagnosis and the prevention of damage caused by alcohol. Attitudes, beliefs and expectations of health professionals in relation to alcohol use have influence over the effect of these new proposals. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed at evaluating the effect of training in SBIRTs on the beliefs and expectations of professionals about the alcohol use. METHODS: The study is observational, cross-sectional and comparative, with a sample of 88 professionals of primary care, from Ribeirão Preto and region, who agreed to participate following ethical procedures, trained by Program of Integrated Action for Prevention and Attention to Alcohol and Drug Use in the Community (PAIPAD), in period from 2003 to 2006. Data were collected through individual questionnaires applied before the training and in the period from 4 to 6 months later. The questionnaires included a socio-demographic inventory, the Test of Knowledge about alcohol and brief interventions (IB), the Inventory of Positive Expectations and Beliefs about Alcohol (IECPA) and an inventory of estimates on the use of the AUDIT (Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test) and brief interventions. The sample was characterized in relation to the practice and professional preparation in primary care, the professional role in primary care and attitudes and beliefs of professionals about problems related to alcohol or other drugs for their patients. RESULTS: In the Test of Knowledge about alcohol and brief interventions, the average score was higher after the training, increasing from 4.1 to 5.57 (Wilcoxon test: z =- 4.936, p0001). The IECPA average changed from 93.45 points to 78.74 points after intervention, in the post-training (Wilcoxon, z =- 4.138, p0001). A trend toward positive correlation between the acquisition of knowledge and changes in IECPA (p = 0,095) was found (Spearman test), as well the level of pre-training knowledge and estimates of conducting SBIRTs (p = 0,082), estimates of implementing AUDIT and the time (p = 0,009). In the Test of Knowledge, the intermediate level of schooling (complete and incomplete) showed lower score than the others. Variations of IECPA correlated positively with the expectations of applying SBIRTs (Nonparametric Chi-Square: p = 0,053). The highest changes in IECPA were seen among higher level professionals (complete and incomplete). The professionals of higher-level occupations showed bigger positive changes in knowledge than workers of technical level and higher reduction in scores of IECPA. CONCLUSIONS: The strategy of training offered by PAIPAD was effective, promoting changes in beliefs and expectations of the team about alcohol use, interfering positively in the preventive attitudes of trained professionals with the patients.
353

Expectativas do paciente renal crônico frente à espera do transplante / Kidney Patient\'s Expectations While waiting for a Transplant

Oliveira, Nilza Tavares Honorato de 18 December 2007 (has links)
Este trabalho pretende lançar um novo olhar sobre o relacionamento entre as pessoas da equipe de saúde e pacientes com Insuficiência renal crônica. O trabalho com pacientes portadores de doença crônica geralmente contém uma carga mental muito densa para os trabalhadores, que lidam diariamente com questões existenciais, como a dor, o sofrimento e a morte, e questões profissionais, como os sentimentos de frustração e impotência diante da doença. Os pacientes também carregam uma carga psíquica, já que a IRC é uma doença que implica na convivência com a dor, o sofrimento e, às vezes, até a morte, que são questões geradoras de ansiedade e estresse. Por outro lado, a doença pode ser vista como uma oportunidade de crescimento pessoal, tanto do paciente como das pessoas que integram a equipe que o assiste. Assim, este trabalho teve como objetivo investigar as percepções e expectativas dos pacientes com IRC,enquanto aguardam, na fila de espera, por um transplante. Promover o máximo de crescimento e trocas na relação profissional-paciente, valorizando o trabalho como fonte de equilíbrio, satisfação e prazer, podem conduzir à realização pessoal, resgatando a doença como ponto de partida para o crescimento dos pacientes. Para isto, foi realizada uma pesquisa qualitativa, utilizando-se de entrevista e questionário, possibilitando a sugestão de medidas que podem contribuir para a qualidade de trabalho e de vida de profissionais e pacientes. Como resultado destas reflexões, emergem algumas sugestões a serem alcançadas; possibilitar os pacientes a realizarem suas escolhas; discutir amplamente com a sociedade a importância da doação de órgãos para que possa diminuir o número de pacientes na lista de espera e de medidas de suporte social ao mesmo; reivindicar a inserção, no ensino médico, de disciplinas que discutam sobre a doença crônica e oferecer um cuidado integral para os mesmos, isto é, atendendo às dimensões físicas, emocionais, espirituais, sociais e econômicas. / The aim of this study was to look at the relationship between health teams and the patient with chronic kidney failure. Working with chronically sick patients often represents a heavy mental burden for health workers who have to handle existencial issues such as pain, suffering , and death as well as professional issues like frustation and helplessness in face of the disease. Patients also sustain a psychic burden once CKF is a condition that involves coping with pain, suffering, and sometimes death, which are issues that generate anxiety and stress.On the other hand, the disease can be regarded as an opportunity for personal growth both for the patient and the workers assisting them. Therefore, the goal of this study was to investigate CKF patients\' perceptions and expectations while waiting for a transplant. Promoting optimal personal growth and sharing in patient/health worker relationship as well as valueing work as a source satisfaction and pleasure can lead to self-realization, regarding disease as a way to foster the patient\'s growth Therefore, a qualitative study making use of interviews and a questionnaire was conducted. Such format allowed for suggesting measures that could improve the quality of working conditions and life both for patients and health workers. Some suggestions emmerged as a result of this study, such as enabling the patients to make their choices; raising public awareness by discussing the importance of organ donation in order to reduce the number of prospective recipients and actions to provide social support to them; requiring that Medical Schools include subjects that will discuss chronic diseases. Finally, patients should be able to receive thorough assistance targeting their physical, emotional, spiritual, social, and economic dimensions.
354

Técnicas de controle estocástico em política monetária. / Stochastic control techniques in monetary policy.

Praxedes, Lucas Gurgel 07 December 2011 (has links)
Este trabalho trata das aplicações da Teoria de Controle Ótimo ao problema de otimização da Política Monetária. Esse problema consiste em minimizar uma função que representa o custo da inflação para a sociedade, por meio de manipulações na variável de controle, que é a taxa de juros da economia. Serão considerados dois modelos para a dinâmica macroeconômica: um keynesiano e um novo-keynesiano. O problema de minimização sujeito à dinâmica keynesiana pode ser resolvido por meio dos conceitos tradicionais de controle ótimo, como o LQR e LQG. Por outro lado, o modelo novokeynesiano possui uma dinâmica mais complexa e não-recursiva, impossibilitando a aplicação direta dos métodos de programação estocástica. Assim, o problema de minimização sujeito à essa dinâmica requer métodos mais complexos, como o método do Lagrangiano ou o método do ponto de sela recursivo. É apresentada a solução analítica para o problema de controle ótimo em cada tipo de dinâmica. Em seguida, o problema de estimação de parâmetros é abordado. Métodos como o OLS e o GMM são empregados para estimar os parâmetros do modelo. Também são realizadas simulações para determinar numericamente as políticas de controle ótimo em alguns cenários. Por fim, a política monetária ótima é determinada para o período entre 2008 e 2009 e comparada com a política monetária adotada pelo governo. / This article discusses the applications of the Optimal Control Theory to the Monetary Policy optimization problem. This problem consists in minimizing a function that represents the inflation cost to society, through manipulation on the control variable, which is the interest rate of the economy. It will be considered two models for macroeconomic dynamics: a Keynesian and a new-Keynesian model. The minimization problem subject to Keynesian dynamics can be solved through traditional optimal control tools, such as LQR and LQG. On the other hand, the second model has a more complex and non-recursive dynamic, precluding the direct application of stochastic programming methods. Thus, the minimization problem restricted to this dynamic requires more complex methods, like the Lagrangian or the recursive saddlepoint method. It is presented the analytical solution to the optimal control problem for each type of dynamics. Then, the parameter estimation problem is addressed. Methods such as OLS and GMM are used to estimate the model parameters. Simulations are also carried out to determine numerically the optimal control policies in some scenarios. Finally, the optimal monetary policy is determined for the period between 2008 and 2009 and compared with the monetary policy adopted by the government.
355

The importance of earnings expectation on share price performance.

January 1996 (has links)
by Chung Kwok-Wai, Li Wai-Man, Raymond. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1996. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 40-41). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.iv / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.2 / Relationship Between Earning Forecasts and Stock Returns --- p.2 / Relationship Between Forecast Error and Stock Returns --- p.3 / Relationship Between Forecast Revision and Stock Returns --- p.5 / Chapter III. --- METHODOLOGY --- p.7 / Sources of Consensus Earning Estimates --- p.7 / The Sampling Criteria --- p.7 / Six Earnings Expectations Variables --- p.9 / Statistical Procedures --- p.11 / Measuring Excess Returns --- p.12 / Rank Correlation Test --- p.14 / Report of Excess Returns --- p.15 / Chapter IV. --- RESULTS --- p.16 / Relationship Between Earning Forecasts and Stock Returns --- p.16 / Relationship Between Actual Growth and Stock Returns --- p.20 / Relationship Between Forecast Error and Stock Returns --- p.22 / Relationship Between Forecast Revision and Stock Returns --- p.27 / Size and Variation of Excess Returns Due to Forecast Errors --- p.28 / Size of Returns by Being More Accurate --- p.30 / Limitations of Our Study --- p.31 / Chapter V. --- CONCLUSION --- p.33 / APPENDIX --- p.35 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.40
356

Celebrity privacy and the development of the judicial concept of proportionality : how English law has balanced the rights to protection and interference

Callender Smith, Robin January 2014 (has links)
This thesis examines how English law has, and has not, balanced celebrities’ legal expectations of informational and seclusional privacy against the press and media’s rights to inform and publish. Much of the litigation that developed the English laws of privacy has been celebrity-generated by those with the financial resources to seek out and utilize privacy regimes and remedies in ways not immediately available to ordinary members of the public. The media, generally, has had the resources to present the relevant counter-arguments. Privacy protection was initially afforded to celebrities by breach of confidence and copyright. While public interest and “fair dealing” defences developed within English law, there was no underlying or consistent practical element in legislative or judicial thinking to promote a balance between the competing interests of protection and interference. That practical element, the concept of proportionality, developed in the Convention case-law of the ECtHR in Strasbourg during the 1950s. It was not until the Human Rights Act 1998 (HRA) that English legislators and the UK judicial system began to reflect and apply its consequences. Arriving at proportionate results and decisions – particularly in the realms of privacy - requires both the engagement of the rights that are sought to be maintained as well as a careful balancing exercise of these rights both internally and vis-à-vis each other. Because celebrities, with their Article 8 concerns, and the media, with Article 10 arguments, seek for their causes to prevail, the ways in which legislation and litigation now resolves matters is by the “ultimate balancing test” of proportionality. Proportionality is the measure within this thesis that is constant from chapter to chapter, highlighting, respectively, where the application of proportionality and balance might have produced different results as regimes developed historically and where new developments were needed to accommodate its requirements when it was apparently absent.
357

Finite rationality and repeated game.

January 1998 (has links)
by Tsang Wai-Hung. / Thesis sumbitted in: December 1997. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1998. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 46-48). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Acknowledgements --- p.ii / Abstract --- p.iii / Table of Contents --- p.v / Chapter / Chapter I. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- Model and Main Results --- p.8 / Chapter III. --- Proofs --- p.16 / Chapter IV. --- Correlated Equilibrium and Myopic-Consistent Equilibrium --- p.29 / Chapter V. --- Application --- p.33 / Chapter VI. --- Conclusion --- p.36 / Chapter VII. --- Appendix --- p.37 / Reference --- p.46
358

Factors Related to Meeting Physical Activity Guidelines in College Students: a Social Cognitive Perspective

Farren, Gene L. 05 1900 (has links)
Engaging in regular physical activity is important for maintaining and improving health. Unfortunately, most college students fail to meet the recommendations for both aerobic and muscle-strengthening physical activity guidelines (PAGs). Psychosocial factors described within the social cognitive theory are related to the acquisition and retention of physical activity behaviors. The purpose of this study was to examine the relations of gender, self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, and social support with college students meeting aerobic, muscle-strengthening and both PAGs. Participants (N = 396) completed online questionnaires assessing their physical activity behaviors, exercise self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, and social support. Self-reported physical activity was classified as meeting / not meeting PAGs. Using gender, exercise self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, and social support as predictors, separate logistic regressions were used to examine their relations with the three PAG classifications. Analyses revealed that being male and level of social support increased the odds of meeting muscle-strengthening PAGs, but students’ level of self-efficacy and outcome expectations increased the odds of meeting all three PAG classifications. These findings indicate that interventions designed to increase self-efficacy and outcome expectancy may be beneficial for increasing college students’ physical activity for meeting the PAGs. Promotion of muscle-strengthening activities targeted at young women is also warranted.
359

Comprometimento pode ser ruim? : a influência negativa do comprometimento pré-consumo na satisfação do consumidor

Scherer, Fernanda Mentz January 2016 (has links)
Assim como as técnicas de pesquisa e os estudos avançam na área de comportamento do consumidor, o consumidor, com o tempo, também associa novos comportamentos em seu processo de consumo. O comprometimento pré-consumo é um desses comportamentos, e é caracterizado com base na literatura de psicologia (KIESLER e SAKUMURA, 1966) como uma ligação do indivíduo com a posição declarada em seus atos ou decisões relacionados a uma experiência de consumo ainda iminente. O objetivo deste trabalho foi investigar a influência negativa do comprometimento pré-consumo na satisfação do consumidor, considerando a expectativa como mecanismo explicativo e a performance da experiência como moderadora da relação. Para isso, foram conduzidos três estudos experimentais em dois contextos diferentes: Festival de Vídeos Online (Estudos 1A e 1B) e consumo em um restaurante (estudo 2). O efeito principal e a moderação foram encontrados nos Estudos 1A e 1B, e a mediação da expectativa foi confirmada no estudo 1B. Ou seja, indivíduos comprometidos relataram maior expectativa e menor satisfação em uma experiência de consumo de baixa performance do que indivíduos não comprometidos previamente. Adicionalmente, o estudo 2 revela que a publicidade da avaliação do consumidor apresenta um efeito positivo em sua satisfação na situação de alta performance. / As research techniques and studies on consumer behavior advance in the area, the consumer, with time, also associates new behaviors in their consuming process. The preconsumption commitment is one of those behaviors, and is characterized based on the psychological literature (Kiesler and SAKUMURA, 1966) as an individual connection with the position stated in his actions or decisions related to a still imminent consumer experience. The goal of this research was to investigate the negative influence of preconsumption commitment to customer satisfaction, considering the expectation as an explanatory mechanism and performance experience as a moderator of the relationship. Three experimental studies were conducted in two different contexts: Online Videos Festival (1A and 1B studies) and consumption at a restaurant (study 2). The main effect and moderation were found in studies 1A and 1B, and mediation was confirmed in study 1B. That is, committed individuals reported higher expectations and lower satisfaction in a low performance consumption experience than individuals not previously committed. Additionally, the study 2 shows that evaluation publicity has a positive effect on satisfaction in high-performance situation.
360

News shocks e expectativas do consumidor: evidências para o Brasil / News shocks and consumer expectations: evidence for Brazil

Maion, Thales Augusto Jordão de Toledo Torricelli 02 February 2018 (has links)
Índices de confiança/expectativas são frequentemente utilizados pela mídia e pelo mercado com intuito de projetar o comportamento da economia. As expectativas dos agentes econômicos são peças relevantes, acredita-se, para explicar flutuações de produto e emprego, tanto moderadas como drásticas a exemplo das crises \".com\" e dos subprimes americanos. No Brasil, o tema passou a receber mais atenção devido à crise dos últimos anos.A estimação de um VAR com séries brasileiras de produto, consumo e expectativas sugere que de fato inovações nos índices de expectativas possuirão impactos de médio-longo prazo no consumo agregado e no PIB, além dos próprios índices. A partir dessa evidência, procura-se separar por meio de um modelo DSGE o quanto desses impactos se deve a fundamentos econômicos futuros antecipados pelos agentes e o quanto se deve a alterações momentâneas de humor, isto é, aos animal spirits. Os resultados sugerem que animal spirits e ruídos inerentes aos próprios índices são responsáveis por uma parte considerável da flutuação no período de 1-2 trimestres. Para horizontes iguais ou superiores a 2 trimestres, a antecipação de fundamentos econômicos passa a ser predominante. / Consumer confidence/expectation indexes are frequently used by the media and the market in order to forecast the behavior of the economy. Agents\' expectations are believed to explain output and employment fluctuations, either moderate or drastic as the \".com\" and the american subprime crisis. In Brazil, more attention has been drawn to this topic due to the recent economic crisis.The estimation of a VAR with brazilian data for consumption, output and expectations suggests that innovations to the expectation indexes do have impact on aggregate consumption and GDP in the medium/long-run, as well as the indexes themselves. Inspired by this evidence, a DSGE model is used in order to assess how much of these impacts are due to anticipation of future economic fundamentals and how much are due to animal spirits. The results indicate that animal spirits and index-specific noise are responsible for a non-negligible amount of fluctuations up to 2 quarters, whereas news of future economic conditions prevail on lower frequencies.

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