Esta tese apresenta uma sistemática de seleção dos especialistas mais consistentes e dos fatores de ajuste mais relevantes com vistas ao aprimoramento da acurácia da previsão de demanda gerada por métodos quantitativos. Para tanto, são testados sete modelos quantitativos: Médias Móveis (MM-3, MM-6 e MM-9), Suavização Exponencial Simples e Dupla e o modelo de Holt-Winters multiplicativo e aditivo. O modelo utilizado na previsão quantitativa foi aquele que gerou a melhor aderência aos dados e acurácia preditiva com base nos indicadores R2 e Erro Percentual Médio Absoluto (MAPE), respectivamente, extraídos mediante a quebra da série histórica na proporção 80% (banco de treino) e 20% (banco de teste) para cada produto. Com base nesse critério, tanto o leite UHT quanto o queijo mussarela foram modelados através da Suavização Exponencial Dupla (SED). Na sequência, especialistas e fatores utilizados para ajuste qualitativo da demanda foram selecionados de forma a reter somente os especialistas mais consistentes e os fatores mais influentes para tal fim. O método reteve os 5 especialistas mais consistentes dos 15 inicialmente entrevistados. Dos 23 fatores iniciais, apenas os 13 mais representativos foram retidos. Através da previsão corrigida para o leite UHT, o MAPE foi reduzido de 14,29% para 6,44%. Já previsão ajustada do queijo mussarela possibilitou reduzir o MAPE de 15,25% para 8,72%. / This thesis presents a systematic selection of the most consistent experts and most relevant adjustment factors aimed at improving the accuracy of forecasting demand generated by quantitative methods. For this, seven quantitative models are tested: Moving Averages (MM-3, MM-6 and MM-9), Single and Double Exponential Smoothing and Holt-Winters multiplicative and additive model. The model used in quantitative forecasting was one that generated the best adherence to data and predictive accuracy based on the indicators R2 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), respectively, extracted by breaking the time series in the ratio 80 % (workout bench) and 20% (test bank) for each product . Based on this criterion , both UHT milk and mozzarella cheese were modeled by Double Exponential Smoothing (SED). Further, experts and qualitative factors used to adjust demand were selected so to retain only the most consistent experts and the most influential factors for this purpose. The method retained the 5 most consistent experts of the 15 interviewed initially. Of the 23 initial factors, only the 13 most significant were retained. Through prediction corrected for UHT milk the MAPE was reduced from 14.29 % to 6.44 %. It had forecast adjusted mozzarella cheese possible to reduce the MAPE of 15.25% to 8,72.

A utilização não-terapêutica de drogas anabolizantes está documentada na literatura médica como prejudicial à saúde e, na legislação brasileira, como infração penal ante à Lei das Drogas. Apesar dos alertas em diferentes recantos da mídia, cresce o uso destes medicamentos em meio à população brasileira. Entre os usuários, a maioria deles jovens praticantes de musculação, é possível perceber que muitos não apenas usam tais drogas com o propósito de obter ganho muscular, mas também desenvolvem conhecimentos cada vez mais sofisticados, e de várias ordens, sobre os diferentes efeitos dos anabolizantes no corpo humano visando seu melhor uso. Dada à relevância social deste tema e da relação direta com o campo da Educação Física, o presente relatório de pesquisa versa acerca do empreendimento de uma investigação strito sensu que buscou compreender o processo de aquisição, elaboração e compartilhamento dos conhecimentos acerca do uso de anabolizantes entre estudantes de graduação em Educação Física. O marco teórico que subsidiou este estudo contempla, principalmente, as discussões sobre as formulações de Nikolas Rose acerca das biopolíticas contemporâneas (políticas da própria vida), em articulação com os conceitos de enhancement corporal e expertise, além de também versar acerca da teoria da biossociabilidade de Paul Rabinow e da bioascese de Francisco Ortega. A parte mais densa do material empírico foi obtida a partir de entrevistas episódicas, entretanto, sites da Internet também serviram como fontes de informação complementar no processo de identificação sobre como ocorre a organização e sistematização do aprendizado em ambiente virtual. Os entrevistados descreveram o aprendizado sobre a utilização de medicamentos anabolizantes como algo considerado “proibido” frente aos elementos éticos e jurídicos e envolto em um clima de clandestinidade na formação inicial. A partir das entrevistas foi possível identificar que o aprendizado sobre a utilização dos medicamentos anabolizantes é uma temática que apenas tangencia o percurso curricular formal dos acadêmicos de um curso de Educação Física. Também foi possível identificar, a partir do material empírico, que além da dimensão formal de aprendizagem na Educação Física, estes estudantes encontram, fora da graduação, as seguintes dimensões de aprendizagem sobre o tema: as academias de musculação, os fóruns virtuais da Internet e os coaches, considerados os guias da construção corporal por meio do uso do anabolizante. Há também uma última dimensão de aprendizagem que consiste no momento em que os sujeitos têm sua expertise reconhecida pelos pares do grupo quando, então, tornam-se coaches, passando a aplicar os conhecimentos sobre as modificações corporais não apenas em si mesmos, mas também em outras pessoas. / The non-therapeutic use of anabolic drugs is documented in the medical literature as harmful to health and, in Brazilian legislation, as a criminal offense. In spite of warnings in different media spaces, there is an increased use of these drugs among the Brazilian population. Among the users, most of them young bodybuilders, we observed that many not only use these drugs in order to develop muscle hypertrophy, but also acquire increasingly sophisticated knowledge, from several orders, about the different effects of anabolic drugs on the human body aiming at a safer use. Taking into account the social importance of this theme and its direct relation with the Physical Education area, this study aimed to understand the process of acquisition, development and sharing of knowledge about the use of anabolic steroids among undergraduate students of Physical Education. The theoretical framework that supports this study includes mainly discussions on the formulation by Nikolas Rose about contemporary biopolitics of life, in conjunction with de concepts of body enhancement and expertise, and also discusses about the biosociality theory by Paul Rabinow and the bioasceticism by Francisco Ortega. The densest element of the empirical material was obtained from episodic interviews; however, websites also served as data sources in order to identify how learning is organized on the internet. Interview participants described learning about the use of anabolic drugs as something considered "forbidden" in face of ethical and legal elements, and surrounded by a clandestine environment in initial training. From the interviews, we could identify that learning about the use of anabolic steroids is an issue that only touches the formative trajectory of the undergraduate students of Physical Education. We also identified, from the empirical data, that, besides the formal dimension of learning in Physical Education, these students find, outside the undergraduate course, the following learning dimensions about the theme: gyms, virtual forums, and the coaches. The coaches are the last level of learning about the use of anabolic steroids. In this stage, the subjects have their expertise recognized by their peers.

A utilização não-terapêutica de drogas anabolizantes está documentada na literatura médica como prejudicial à saúde e, na legislação brasileira, como infração penal ante à Lei das Drogas. Apesar dos alertas em diferentes recantos da mídia, cresce o uso destes medicamentos em meio à população brasileira. Entre os usuários, a maioria deles jovens praticantes de musculação, é possível perceber que muitos não apenas usam tais drogas com o propósito de obter ganho muscular, mas também desenvolvem conhecimentos cada vez mais sofisticados, e de várias ordens, sobre os diferentes efeitos dos anabolizantes no corpo humano visando seu melhor uso. Dada à relevância social deste tema e da relação direta com o campo da Educação Física, o presente relatório de pesquisa versa acerca do empreendimento de uma investigação strito sensu que buscou compreender o processo de aquisição, elaboração e compartilhamento dos conhecimentos acerca do uso de anabolizantes entre estudantes de graduação em Educação Física. O marco teórico que subsidiou este estudo contempla, principalmente, as discussões sobre as formulações de Nikolas Rose acerca das biopolíticas contemporâneas (políticas da própria vida), em articulação com os conceitos de enhancement corporal e expertise, além de também versar acerca da teoria da biossociabilidade de Paul Rabinow e da bioascese de Francisco Ortega. A parte mais densa do material empírico foi obtida a partir de entrevistas episódicas, entretanto, sites da Internet também serviram como fontes de informação complementar no processo de identificação sobre como ocorre a organização e sistematização do aprendizado em ambiente virtual. Os entrevistados descreveram o aprendizado sobre a utilização de medicamentos anabolizantes como algo considerado “proibido” frente aos elementos éticos e jurídicos e envolto em um clima de clandestinidade na formação inicial. A partir das entrevistas foi possível identificar que o aprendizado sobre a utilização dos medicamentos anabolizantes é uma temática que apenas tangencia o percurso curricular formal dos acadêmicos de um curso de Educação Física. Também foi possível identificar, a partir do material empírico, que além da dimensão formal de aprendizagem na Educação Física, estes estudantes encontram, fora da graduação, as seguintes dimensões de aprendizagem sobre o tema: as academias de musculação, os fóruns virtuais da Internet e os coaches, considerados os guias da construção corporal por meio do uso do anabolizante. Há também uma última dimensão de aprendizagem que consiste no momento em que os sujeitos têm sua expertise reconhecida pelos pares do grupo quando, então, tornam-se coaches, passando a aplicar os conhecimentos sobre as modificações corporais não apenas em si mesmos, mas também em outras pessoas. / The non-therapeutic use of anabolic drugs is documented in the medical literature as harmful to health and, in Brazilian legislation, as a criminal offense. In spite of warnings in different media spaces, there is an increased use of these drugs among the Brazilian population. Among the users, most of them young bodybuilders, we observed that many not only use these drugs in order to develop muscle hypertrophy, but also acquire increasingly sophisticated knowledge, from several orders, about the different effects of anabolic drugs on the human body aiming at a safer use. Taking into account the social importance of this theme and its direct relation with the Physical Education area, this study aimed to understand the process of acquisition, development and sharing of knowledge about the use of anabolic steroids among undergraduate students of Physical Education. The theoretical framework that supports this study includes mainly discussions on the formulation by Nikolas Rose about contemporary biopolitics of life, in conjunction with de concepts of body enhancement and expertise, and also discusses about the biosociality theory by Paul Rabinow and the bioasceticism by Francisco Ortega. The densest element of the empirical material was obtained from episodic interviews; however, websites also served as data sources in order to identify how learning is organized on the internet. Interview participants described learning about the use of anabolic drugs as something considered "forbidden" in face of ethical and legal elements, and surrounded by a clandestine environment in initial training. From the interviews, we could identify that learning about the use of anabolic steroids is an issue that only touches the formative trajectory of the undergraduate students of Physical Education. We also identified, from the empirical data, that, besides the formal dimension of learning in Physical Education, these students find, outside the undergraduate course, the following learning dimensions about the theme: gyms, virtual forums, and the coaches. The coaches are the last level of learning about the use of anabolic steroids. In this stage, the subjects have their expertise recognized by their peers.

In the recent years a growing interest in Cognitive Science has been directed to the cognitive role of the agent's ability to predict the consequences of their actions, without actual engagement with their environment. The creation of an experimental model for Hesslow's simulation hypothesis, based on the use of a simulated adaptive agent and the methods of evolutionary robotics within the general perspective of radical connectionism, is reported in this dissertation. A hierarchical architecture consisting of a mixture of (recurrent) experts is investigated in order to test its ability to produce an 'inner world', functional stand-in for the agent's interactions with its environment. Such a mock world is expected to be rich enough to sustain 'blind navigation', which means navigation based solely on the agent's own internal predictions. The results exhibit the system's vivid internal dynamics, its critical sensitivity to a high number of parameters and, finally, a discrepancy with the declared goal of blind navigation. However, given the dynamical complexity of the system, further analysis and testing appear necessary.

This thesis proposes novel algorithms for using Gaussian processes for Discriminative pose estimation. We overcome the traditional limitations of Gaussian processes, their cubic training complexity and their uni-modal predictive distribution by assembling them in a mixture of experts formulation. Our First contribution shows that by creating a large number of Fixed size Gaussian process experts, we can build a model that is able to scale to large data sets and accurately learn the multi-modal and non- linear mapping between image features and the subject’s pose. We demonstrate that this model gives state of the art performance compared to other discriminative pose estimation techniques.We then extend the model to automatically learn the size and location of each expert. Gaussian processes are able to accurately model non-linear functional regression problems where the output is given as a function of the input. However, when an individual Gaussian process is trained on data which contains multi-modalities, or varying levels of ambiguity, the Gaussian process is unable to accurately model the data. We propose a novel algorithm for learning the size and location of each expert in our mixture of Gaussian processes model to ensure that the training data of each expert matches the assumptions of a Gaussian process. We show that this model is able to out perform our previous mixture of Gaussian processes model.Our final contribution is a dynamics framework for inferring a smooth sequence of pose estimates from a sequence of independent predictive distributions. Discriminative pose estimation infers the pose of each frame independently, leading to jittery tracking results. Our novel algorithm uses a model of human dynamics to infer a smooth path through a sequence of Gaussian mixture models as given by our mixture of Gaussian processes model. We show that our algorithm is able to smooth and correct some mis- takes made by the appearance model alone, and outperform a baseline linear dynamical system.

Ce travail est une étude exploratoire sur la relation d’autorité en salle de classe dans une école primaire publique du Cameroun. Je voulais comprendre comment les enseignants et les élèves d’une école publique en milieu périurbain vivent la relation d’autorité en salle de classe. Pour rendre compte de cette expérience, j’ai choisi l’approche de terrain prônée par l’interactionnisme symbolique. J’ai alors eu recours à l’observation de deux classes (106 h 43 min), à 12 entretiens semi-structurés avec les élèves des deux classes et 3 autres avec la directrice d’école et les deux titulaires des deux classes. Analysée dans un premier temps au moyen de deux catégories : l’épistémique et le déontique, la relation d’autorité apparaît comme une relation verticale basée sur la coercition. Ensuite, pour mieux comprendre la complexité des interactions qui favorisent un tel type de relation, j’ai convoqué la théorie de la structuration sociale de Giddens. Cela m’a permis de placer le vécu de la salle de classe dans le contexte méso-social de la politique éducative, puis dans le contexte macro social des politiques d’ajustement structurel qui régentent le Cameroun et d’autres pays dits en développement pour découvrir que la domination du macro social sur le méso social crée une anomie au niveau des orientations scolaires. Ce qui permet aux enseignantes d’instituer et d’appliquer leurs propres normes à l’école. C’est cet acte d’invention et d’application des normes qui fait d’elles des « entrepreneures de morale ».

Ce travail de thèse s’intéresse à comprendre comment un individu expert se comporte dans une situation de crise sur-Médiatisée. Pour ce faire, nous inscrirons notre recherche dans l’approche naturaliste de la décision dans laquelle, le contexte joue un rôle essentiel. Dans notre cas, nous avons choisi celui des crises sur-Médiatisées. En effet, depuis quelques années, la sur-Médiatisation nous apparaît être un facteur inédit qu’il convient d’analyser de manière rigoureuse. L’intérêt sera double. Du point de vue théorique, il s’agira d’observer les effets de la sur-Médiatisation sur le comportement des experts, et ainsi d’enrichir l’approche naturaliste. Du point de vue managérial, nous proposons une méthode de formation pour les experts confrontés à ce contexte d’actualité. Notre thèse se fonde sur une méthodologie qualitative visant à analyser deux situations extrêmes. La première porte sur le cas de pilotes de l’aviation légère de l'armée de terre et la seconde sur celui de restaurateurs de l’hôtellerie-Restauration. Dans tout contexte de crise, les individus experts peuvent être initiateurs ou suivre les décisions prises par d’autres experts confrontés au même problème. Dans le cas de situation de crise sur-Médiatisée, nos résultats révèlent un taux très élevé de suiveurs de décision. Il y a donc là un comportement paradoxal : les experts se focalisent sur les décisions de leurs homologues plutôt que sur le contenu intrinsèque du problème et n’utilisent que peu leur expérience. Nous estimons alors que les experts se comportent comme des novices, c’est-À-Dire, des décideurs sans expérience. Finalement, nous soulignons l’intérêt de former les experts aux situations de crise sur-Médiatisée pour les aider à surmonter ce nouveau défi. / This thesis is interested in understanding on how an expert behaves in a mass communication situation crisis. To attain this objective, we use the naturalistic decision making approach in which the context plays an essential role. In our case, we used the mass communication situation crisis. In fact, since couple of years ago, mass communication in an unusual important factor that is convenient to analyze in a rigorous way. The benefit will be double. From a theoretical point of view, the aim is to observe the effects of the mass communication on the expert’s behaviors and in this way to reinforce the naturalistic approach. From a managerial point of view, we propose a learning method for the experts that face this context of actuality. This thesis is based on a qualitative methodology is order to analyze two extreme situations. The first one is the case of the hotel’s restaurant. In any crisis situation, experts can be leaders or followers: they follow the decision taken by other experts confronted to the same problem. In the case of a mass communication crisis situation, results reveal a higher percentage of followers. This shows a paradoxical behavior. Experts focus on the decision of their peers rather than on the content of the problem and use very low percentage of their own experience. Therefore, we estimate that an expert’s behavior is similar to a novice. Finally, we underline the importance of forming experts to mass communication crisis situations to help them overcome this challenge.

Esta tese apresenta uma sistemática de seleção dos especialistas mais consistentes e dos fatores de ajuste mais relevantes com vistas ao aprimoramento da acurácia da previsão de demanda gerada por métodos quantitativos. Para tanto, são testados sete modelos quantitativos: Médias Móveis (MM-3, MM-6 e MM-9), Suavização Exponencial Simples e Dupla e o modelo de Holt-Winters multiplicativo e aditivo. O modelo utilizado na previsão quantitativa foi aquele que gerou a melhor aderência aos dados e acurácia preditiva com base nos indicadores R2 e Erro Percentual Médio Absoluto (MAPE), respectivamente, extraídos mediante a quebra da série histórica na proporção 80% (banco de treino) e 20% (banco de teste) para cada produto. Com base nesse critério, tanto o leite UHT quanto o queijo mussarela foram modelados através da Suavização Exponencial Dupla (SED). Na sequência, especialistas e fatores utilizados para ajuste qualitativo da demanda foram selecionados de forma a reter somente os especialistas mais consistentes e os fatores mais influentes para tal fim. O método reteve os 5 especialistas mais consistentes dos 15 inicialmente entrevistados. Dos 23 fatores iniciais, apenas os 13 mais representativos foram retidos. Através da previsão corrigida para o leite UHT, o MAPE foi reduzido de 14,29% para 6,44%. Já previsão ajustada do queijo mussarela possibilitou reduzir o MAPE de 15,25% para 8,72%. / This thesis presents a systematic selection of the most consistent experts and most relevant adjustment factors aimed at improving the accuracy of forecasting demand generated by quantitative methods. For this, seven quantitative models are tested: Moving Averages (MM-3, MM-6 and MM-9), Single and Double Exponential Smoothing and Holt-Winters multiplicative and additive model. The model used in quantitative forecasting was one that generated the best adherence to data and predictive accuracy based on the indicators R2 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), respectively, extracted by breaking the time series in the ratio 80 % (workout bench) and 20% (test bank) for each product . Based on this criterion , both UHT milk and mozzarella cheese were modeled by Double Exponential Smoothing (SED). Further, experts and qualitative factors used to adjust demand were selected so to retain only the most consistent experts and the most influential factors for this purpose. The method retained the 5 most consistent experts of the 15 interviewed initially. Of the 23 initial factors, only the 13 most significant were retained. Through prediction corrected for UHT milk the MAPE was reduced from 14.29 % to 6.44 %. It had forecast adjusted mozzarella cheese possible to reduce the MAPE of 15.25% to 8,72.

The formal requirements of experts are diminishing, thus opening up for the expansion of new experts, who are gaining more influence in society. In contemporary society, all organizations are pressured to consider Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and are therefore dependent on the new experts within the field. However, the research remains underexplored. Building on research on new experts and storytelling, this thesis addresses how CSR-experts within organizations engage in storytelling to legitimize their expertise. A framework of four storytelling themes was made, and a qualitative case study conducted. Six interviews were carried out and documents made by the interviewees studied. The findings demonstrate that the CSR-experts engage in storytelling in line with the storytelling themes, but new findings could also be added to the themes. They engage in future-oriented storytelling, as well as storytelling concerning current problems and solutions, to legitimize the role of expertise today and to sustain it for the future, demonstrating how storytelling is a dynamic process taking place in everyday organizational life. However, to attain legitimacy, the study indicates that storytelling needs to be adjusted to the receiver in a successful manner, otherwise it may instead inhibit the legitimacy that the CSR-experts are trying to create.

This thesis is focused on identifying key aspects of mechanics graphs regarded by students and experts. It also contains observations of student's attention focused on each graph. This data was collected using eye tracking camera. 23 high school students and 14 experts participated in this research. Our group of experts contained graduate and post-graduate students as well as researchers from faculty of Mathematics and Physics at Charles University. Our results suggest that experts were able to memorize more information from each graph than high school students. Difference in focus on relevant parts of graphs was obvious from analyzing correct and incorrect answers of high school students and they consider axes and their labeling as the key parts of graphs in contrast to the students. Incorrectly answering students were more focused on parts with no relevance to the task in question. On the contrary, students with correct answers spent less time looking on non-relevant parts of graphs. Ideas of incorrectly answering students were mostly focused on wrong idea about graph as a sketch of real situation, or picture resembling physical situation.