Sub-Saharan Africa is the poorest region in the world suffering from social, political and economic problems. The study focuses on investigation of relationship of capital flight and external debt to long-term economic growth in this region. Firstly the magnitude of capital flight is computed. Using fixed effects model and random effects model we estimate the impact of external debt and capital flight on long-term growth. Moreover the time structure of debt and its source is integrated into model. Our sample consists of 24 countries from sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1989-2008. We have found that external debt has statistically significant negative impact on growth. On the other hand this impact is economically negligible. The long-term growth is also slowed down by long-term debt and by multilateral borrowing. Concerning capital flight its effect on growth is harmful as well. JEL klasifikace: F34, O47, O55, Klíčová slova: zahraniční dluh, únik kapitálu, Subsaharská Afrika, růst

Durante o século XIX, para financiar a atividade econômica, era comum as jovens nações captarem empréstimos no exterior com pagamento em moeda estrangeira. A prática, chamada de Pecado Original era comum no regime do padrão ouro e objetivava garantir aos credores segurança num mercado financeiro ainda em desenvolvimento, que não oferecia instrumentos de proteção contra a flutuação de moedas não lastreadas e para casos de mercado secundário pouco desenvolvido no país devedor. A prática de fornecer empréstimos com serviço em moeda estrangeira perdura pelo século XX com notável estabilidade, haja vista a retomada do sistema de câmbio fixo (Padrão Dólar-Ouro) durante o Fordismo. Neste período, protegidos pela estabilidade cambial, os países em desenvolvimento fizeram uso da prática de rolagem da dívida para cumprir suas obrigações e obter recursos para custear o crescimento de suas economias. O Brasil foi um bom exemplo desta prática. A crise da década de 1970, porém, põe fim ao regime de câmbio fixo. Com a flutuação das moedas estrangeiras, as taxas de juros internacionais tornam-se mais voláteis, colocando em risco todos os países em desenvolvimento que fizeram uso da estratégia de rolagem da dívida nas décadas anteriores. Em 1979, a elevação das taxas de juros internacionais arremessa a América Latina, em particular, numa crise de grandes proporções. Com a dívida atingindo um patamar considerado impagável, o México decreta moratória em 1982, o que cessa o fluxo de empréstimos para o subcontinente. Para administrar a crise, o FMI propõe em 1982 o pagamento integral dos débitos através do saldo nas balanças comerciais dos países endividados, a ser obtido com a desvalorização cambial. Ao longo da década de 1980, a crise latino-americana se aprofunda, com hiperinflação e recessão. Em 1985, no Plano Baker, o FMI reforça sua posição de 1982, sugerindo, porém, uma elevação dos empréstimos para reduzir a transferência líquida de divisas e, assim, custear o desenvolvimento. O Brasil adota planos econômicos heterodoxos que resultam em fracasso e, em 1987, decreta a moratória parcial de sua dívida. O Plano Baker fracassa e, em 1989, o FMI lança o Plano Brady, que pressupunha a securitização das dívidas e a redução do principal, apropriando-se de parte do desconto então praticado no mercado secundário. Com estas medidas, o FMI abria uma brecha para que os países endividados troquem suas dívidas em moeda estrangeira por títulos a serem pagos em moedas locais. O motivo que leva a esta mudança de postura está relacionado à própria transformação sistêmica da Economia Mundo, além da evolução dos mercados secundários e da emergência da doutrina Neoliberal a nortear as novas diretrizes do Fundo. Em 2005, após renegociar sua dívida e fazendo uso da possibilidade aberta como Plano Brady, o Brasil emite títulos no exterior com pagamento em Reais, rompendo com a cláusula secular do Pecado Original. / During the XIX century, it was very common for nations worldwide to raise debt internationally with payments due in foreign currency to finance economic activity. This practice, known as original sin, was common during the gold standard period, and aimed at ensuring safety to creditors in a financial market yet in development, with a lack of protection instruments against the floating of the unbacked currencies and for cases of an undeveloped secondary market in the debtor country. This practice of providing loans in foreign currency endures throughout the entire XX century with remarkable stability, given the recapture of the fixed exchange rate system (dollar-gold standard) during the Fordism. In said period, protected by exchange rate stability, developing countries made use of a practice called debt rollover to fulfill its obligations and raise funds to sustain its economies´ development. Brazil is a good example of this practice. The 1970 crisis puts an end to the fixed exchange rate system though. With foreign currencies fluctuation, international interest rates became more volatile, endangering all developing countries that used the debt rollover strategy at previous decades. In 1979, the rise in international interest rates puts Latin America in fullblown crisis. With its debt reaching a level considered priceless, Mexico defaults in 1982, ceasing the flow of loan money to the whole continent. Still in 1982, in order to manage the crisis, the IMF proposes the full payment of debts through balance in the trade balances of indebted countries, achieved via exchange rate devaluation. During the decade of 1980, the Latin American crisis deepens, resulting in hyperinflation and recession. In 1985 with the Baker plan, the IMF reinforces its position, but this time suggesting a rise in loans to reduce the net transfer of foreign currency and thus support development. Brazil adopts heterodox economic plans that with frustrating results and, in 1987, partially defaults its debt. The Baker plan fails and, in 1989, the IMF launches the Brady Plan, which involved the securitization of the debt and reduction of principal, appropriating part of the discount then practiced in the secondary market. With these measures, the IMF creates a loophole for indebted countries to switch its foreign currencies debts for bonds to be paid in local currency. The reason leading to this behavior change is not only connected to the very transformation of systemic world economy itself, but also to the evolution of secondary markets and the surge of the neoliberal doctrine guiding the fund´s new guidelines. In 2005, after renegotiating its debt and using the open possibility with the Brady Plan, Brazil issues bonds overseas with payment in Brazilian Reais, breaking the secular clause of the original sin.

Thesis (M.Com (Economics)) --University of Limpopo, 2018 / The burden of public debt is an economic issue, dominating debates in different sectors of our society. The post financial crisis era has been marked with an increasing level of public debt at international, national and sub-national level. The study investigates if public debt can affect economic growth in South Africa, for the period 1995 to 2016. The results for Johansen test of cointegration signposted the existence of cointegration among variables observed in this study. The trace statistic and max-eigen value complimented each other to confirm the cointegration, thus, showing a long run relationship. Furthermore, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is applied to achieve the objectives of the study, complemented by other econometric tests such as, Granger causality, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The VECM results revealed the existence of a short run relationship between public debt and economic growth. Granger causality results have shown that public debt can Granger cause economic growth, and there is bi-direction relationship between the two variables. The results for Variance Decomposition indicate that, a shock to public debt causes 1.509115 % fluctuation in economic growth in the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, a shock to public debt account for 16.39628 % fluctuations in economic growth. This shows that, as time goes on, a shock to public debt account for a high percent of fluctuation in economic growth. The Impulse Response Function has shown that, the period of ten quarters marks a negative response of economic growth to public debt. Thus, one standard deviation shock in public debt will inversely affect economic growth. The diagnostic tests such as serial correlation and heteroskedasticity bode well for the model because, neither serial correlation nor heteroskedasticity has been found. Moreover, the model has shown that the residuals are normally distributed, and also the stability of the model has been confirmed. The study recommends that, since South Africa is a capital scarce country, it is encouraged to borrow so that there is an increase in the accumulation of capital. However, the later stage of borrowing marked with high debt will lead to subdued economic growth. / SETA

In my dissertation, I explore the relationship between capital controls and the choice of the maturity structure of external debt in a general equilibrium setup, incorporating explicitly the role of international lenders. I look at specific types of capital controls which take the form of date-specific and maturity-specific reserve requirements on external borrowing. I consider two questions: How is the maturity structure of external debt determined in a world general equilibrium? What are the effects of date- and maturity-specific reserve requirements on the maturity structure of external debt? Can they prevent a bank run? I develop a simple Diamond-Dybvig-type model with three dates. In the low income countries, banks arise endogenously. There are two short-term bonds and one long-term bond offered by the domestic banks to international lenders. First I look at a simple model were international lending is modeled exogenously. I consider explicitly the maturity composition of capital inflows to a domestic economy. I show that the holdings of both short-term bonds are not differentiated according to date. Second, I consider international lending behavior explicitly. The world consists of two large open economies: one with high income and one with low income. The high income countries lend to low income countries. There exist multiple equilibria and some are characterized by relative price indeterminacy. Third, I discuss date-specific and maturity- specific reserve requirements. In my setup reserve requirements play the role of a tax and the role of providing liquidity for each bond at different dates. I show that they reduce the scope of indeterminacy. In some equilibria, I identify a case in which the reserve requirement rate on the long-term debt must be higher than that on the short-term debt for a tilt towards a longer maturity structure. Fourth, I introduce the possibility of an unexpected bank run. I show that some specific combination of date-and maturity-specific reserve requirements reduce the vulnerability to bank runs. With regard to the post-bank-run role of international lenders, I show that international lenders may still want to provide new short-term lending to the bank after the occurrence of a bank run.

本研究旨在討論外債和人權之間的協同作用和緊張關係，藉由探討聯合世界銀行國際貨幣基金組織債務對低收入國家的償債能力，尤其著重尼加拉瓜的例子。筆者發現有效支持兩個變量理論的連結，另外，本研究強調了政治決策改變人權債務的結果。 文獻探討發現過往討論各國償債能力忽略了人權因素，如此會抑止：（一）完成其任務，指導已納入人權要素在其發展援助干預的多邊和雙邊貸款；（二）審議侵犯人權的行為，特別是公民權利和政治權利的破壞治理和機構質量的因素；和（三）解決其減少債務相關的風險政策的人權影響。 研究分析的結果發現高度的侵犯人權行為（特別是公民權利和政治權利），不僅導致政治不穩定，也破壞了宏觀經濟的穩定。 / The author's research studies the synergies and tensions between external debt and human rights. To do this, the study examines the joint world bank-international monetary fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries, whilst paying particular attention to Nicaragua’s case. The author finds support for the validity of theoretical arguments that link the two variables. Specifically, the investigation examines and specifies how political decisions as a result of changes in human rights impact debt sustainability as well as and how high debt affects respect of human rights. The review of the Debt Sustainability Framework revealed that the framework ignores human rights issues in its methodology, which inhibits the framework’s ability to: i) accomplish its mandate to provide guidance to multilateral and bilateral lenders that have incorporated human rights elements in their development aid interventions; ii) to consider human rights violations, especially civil and political rights as a factor that undermines the quality of governance and institutions; and iii) address human rights impacts of the policies which reduce debt related risks. The inclusive growth diagnostic conducted by Nicaragua provided an in-depth study of the growth drivers (repayment capacity) and factors that are hindering their growth. As a result of the analysis, it revealed that high human rights violations (specially civil and political rights) have not only led to political instability, but also undermined macroeconomic stability - upsetting macroeconomic stability and increasing indebtedness.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Harvard University, 1988. / Includes bibliographical references (p. leaves [209]-217).

This thesis comprises of four essays on fiscal policy and fiscal policy adjustment. The first of these essays, Chapter 2, reviews a wide range of literature about fiscal policy. This chapter also discusses the sudden stop and fiscal policy during sudden stops episodes. Chapter 3 constructs a simple dynamic deterministic model to study how the speed of adjustment to a sustainable level of debt affects economic welfare. The simulation results in Chapter 3 suggest that in order to bring the level of external debt to a sustainable level as required by foreign lenders, the small open economy will attempt to delay adjustment as long as possible. Chapter 4 uses a Structural Vector Autoregression Model to estimate government consumption multipliers for groups of countries. The empirical results suggest that: (i) The higher degree of financial openness, the larger the government consumption multiplier. (ii) The government consumption multiplier is significantly bigger in countries with higher levels of external debt. (iii) The higher the level of financial development, the smaller the government consumption multiplier. (iv) The government consumption multiplier in countries with fixed exchange rates seems to be bigger than in countries with a flexible exchange rate regime. Chapter 5 of this thesis analyses four case study countries including Greece, Latvia, Pakistan and Turkey. This chapter finds that fiscal policy choice varies across countries because there are many possible determinants for this. It will also be determined that all factors including the level of public debt, level of external debt and monetary policy, especially exchange rate regime, affects the fiscal policy choice of each country. Furthermore, Chapter 5 also points out that political economy can influence fiscal policy directly and indirectly.

Durante o século XIX, para financiar a atividade econômica, era comum as jovens nações captarem empréstimos no exterior com pagamento em moeda estrangeira. A prática, chamada de Pecado Original era comum no regime do padrão ouro e objetivava garantir aos credores segurança num mercado financeiro ainda em desenvolvimento, que não oferecia instrumentos de proteção contra a flutuação de moedas não lastreadas e para casos de mercado secundário pouco desenvolvido no país devedor. A prática de fornecer empréstimos com serviço em moeda estrangeira perdura pelo século XX com notável estabilidade, haja vista a retomada do sistema de câmbio fixo (Padrão Dólar-Ouro) durante o Fordismo. Neste período, protegidos pela estabilidade cambial, os países em desenvolvimento fizeram uso da prática de rolagem da dívida para cumprir suas obrigações e obter recursos para custear o crescimento de suas economias. O Brasil foi um bom exemplo desta prática. A crise da década de 1970, porém, põe fim ao regime de câmbio fixo. Com a flutuação das moedas estrangeiras, as taxas de juros internacionais tornam-se mais voláteis, colocando em risco todos os países em desenvolvimento que fizeram uso da estratégia de rolagem da dívida nas décadas anteriores. Em 1979, a elevação das taxas de juros internacionais arremessa a América Latina, em particular, numa crise de grandes proporções. Com a dívida atingindo um patamar considerado impagável, o México decreta moratória em 1982, o que cessa o fluxo de empréstimos para o subcontinente. Para administrar a crise, o FMI propõe em 1982 o pagamento integral dos débitos através do saldo nas balanças comerciais dos países endividados, a ser obtido com a desvalorização cambial. Ao longo da década de 1980, a crise latino-americana se aprofunda, com hiperinflação e recessão. Em 1985, no Plano Baker, o FMI reforça sua posição de 1982, sugerindo, porém, uma elevação dos empréstimos para reduzir a transferência líquida de divisas e, assim, custear o desenvolvimento. O Brasil adota planos econômicos heterodoxos que resultam em fracasso e, em 1987, decreta a moratória parcial de sua dívida. O Plano Baker fracassa e, em 1989, o FMI lança o Plano Brady, que pressupunha a securitização das dívidas e a redução do principal, apropriando-se de parte do desconto então praticado no mercado secundário. Com estas medidas, o FMI abria uma brecha para que os países endividados troquem suas dívidas em moeda estrangeira por títulos a serem pagos em moedas locais. O motivo que leva a esta mudança de postura está relacionado à própria transformação sistêmica da Economia Mundo, além da evolução dos mercados secundários e da emergência da doutrina Neoliberal a nortear as novas diretrizes do Fundo. Em 2005, após renegociar sua dívida e fazendo uso da possibilidade aberta como Plano Brady, o Brasil emite títulos no exterior com pagamento em Reais, rompendo com a cláusula secular do Pecado Original. / During the XIX century, it was very common for nations worldwide to raise debt internationally with payments due in foreign currency to finance economic activity. This practice, known as original sin, was common during the gold standard period, and aimed at ensuring safety to creditors in a financial market yet in development, with a lack of protection instruments against the floating of the unbacked currencies and for cases of an undeveloped secondary market in the debtor country. This practice of providing loans in foreign currency endures throughout the entire XX century with remarkable stability, given the recapture of the fixed exchange rate system (dollar-gold standard) during the Fordism. In said period, protected by exchange rate stability, developing countries made use of a practice called debt rollover to fulfill its obligations and raise funds to sustain its economies´ development. Brazil is a good example of this practice. The 1970 crisis puts an end to the fixed exchange rate system though. With foreign currencies fluctuation, international interest rates became more volatile, endangering all developing countries that used the debt rollover strategy at previous decades. In 1979, the rise in international interest rates puts Latin America in fullblown crisis. With its debt reaching a level considered priceless, Mexico defaults in 1982, ceasing the flow of loan money to the whole continent. Still in 1982, in order to manage the crisis, the IMF proposes the full payment of debts through balance in the trade balances of indebted countries, achieved via exchange rate devaluation. During the decade of 1980, the Latin American crisis deepens, resulting in hyperinflation and recession. In 1985 with the Baker plan, the IMF reinforces its position, but this time suggesting a rise in loans to reduce the net transfer of foreign currency and thus support development. Brazil adopts heterodox economic plans that with frustrating results and, in 1987, partially defaults its debt. The Baker plan fails and, in 1989, the IMF launches the Brady Plan, which involved the securitization of the debt and reduction of principal, appropriating part of the discount then practiced in the secondary market. With these measures, the IMF creates a loophole for indebted countries to switch its foreign currencies debts for bonds to be paid in local currency. The reason leading to this behavior change is not only connected to the very transformation of systemic world economy itself, but also to the evolution of secondary markets and the surge of the neoliberal doctrine guiding the fund´s new guidelines. In 2005, after renegotiating its debt and using the open possibility with the Brady Plan, Brazil issues bonds overseas with payment in Brazilian Reais, breaking the secular clause of the original sin.

The thesis regarding external outstanding debts of Czech Republic is a complex document describing particular debtors, the amount of their liabilities and methods used to recover the outstanding debts. The diploma thesis also covers the origin of these debts. The aim of this thesis is to find business opportunities in this area while considering debtor's attitude and economic position. Two countries -- Cuba, Libya - have been selected on the basis of valuation analysis of individual debts. These countries have been put through detailed analysis in order to find business opportunities for commercial subjects.

Foreign capital inflows (FCI) play an important role in the economic development of the recipient country as they fund investments and promote growth. However, the size and composition of such inflows are determined on the basis of country specific requirements. The study investigates the impact of capital inflows on the economy of Kenya at a time when the government implemented economic reform measures to stabilize the economy and restore sustainable growth. More specifically, the study examines the impact of foreign capital flows remittances such as overseas workers remittance, official development aid, and external debt, on selected macro-economic variables using monthly time series data and a single-equation empirical approach. The study findings reveal that some forms of FCI are not influenced by the macro economic variables in the country but by other factors such as political stability and policy variables.