Previous tornado climatology research has relied primarily upon means of tornadoes or tornado days. Understanding the variability of tornado days however, will result in a more comprehensive understanding of the climatological distribution of tornadoes. In a changing environment, the extremities of a distribution should change faster than the mean of that distribution. Two methods of analyzing tornado days for predefined areas across the continental United States using the Storm Prediction Center's publication Storm Data from 1950 to 2011 are conducted in this study. Statistical analysis of averages, return periods, and percentiles reveals the variability in the record while consecutive tornado days present an alternative way to assess the seasonal repeatability and to assess risk for historic, multi-day tornado outbreaks. The results of this research will help to better define the traditional “tornado alley” as well as highlight other high-risk locations, especially those with higher interannual variability.

Essen, Universiẗat, Diss., 2000.

No description available.

Universiẗat, Diss., 2005--Würzburg.

The statistical modeling of spatial extreme events, augmented by graphical models, provides a comprehensive framework for the development of techniques and models to describe natural phenomena in a variety of environmental, geoscience, and climate science applications. In a changing climate, the impact of natural hazards, such as wildfires, is believed to have evolved in frequency, size, and spatial extent, although regional responses may vary. The aforementioned impacts are of great significance due to their association with air pollution, irreversible harm to the environment and atmosphere, and the fact that they put human lives at risk. The prediction of wildfires holds significant importance within the realm of wildfire management due to its influence on the allocation of resources, the mitigation of detrimental consequences, and the subsequent recovery endeavors. Therefore, the development of robust statistical methodologies that can accurately forecast extreme wildfire occurrences across spatial and temporal dimensions is of great significance. In this thesis, we develop new spatial statistical models, combined with popular machine learning techniques, as well as novel extreme-value methods to enhance the prediction of wildfire risk using graphical models. First, in order to jointly efficiently model high-dimensional wildfire counts and burnt areas over the whole continguous United States, we propose a four-stage zero-inflated bivariate spatiotemporal model combining low-rank spatial models and random forests. Second, to model high values of the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index over Australia, we develop a novel spatial extreme-value model based on mixtures of tree-based multivariate Pareto distributions. Our new methodology combines theoretically justified spatial extreme models with a computationally convenient graphical model framework to spatial problems in high dimensions efficiently. Third, we exploit recent advancements in deep learning and build a parametric regression model using graphic convolutional neural networks and the extended Generalized Pareto distribution, allow us to jointly model moderate and extreme wildfires observed on irregular spatial grid. We work with a novel dataset of Australian wildfires from 1999 to 2019, and analyse monthly spread over areas correspond to Statistical Area Level 1 regions. We highlight the efficacy of our newly proposed model and perform risk assessment for Australia and dense communities.

This thesis investigates changes in temperature extremes between 1950-2005, analysing gridded data sets of observations and climate model simulations. It focuses on changes in the frequency of extreme temperatures occurring in single days or over periods of six or more consecutive days. The study aims to quantify the significance of changes in extreme temperature events and answer the following questions. Are external or human-induced forcings together with natural forcings responsible for the observed change in temperature extremes or can these changes be explained due to natural climate variability alone? Are the observed changes consistent with those from climate model simulations? And are the changes in extremes linked only to changes in the mean climate, or only to those in climate variability or both? The analysis concentrates on changes from global to regional scale and from annual mean to seasonal scale. A detection method is applied to assess if changes are significantly different with respect to the internal climate variability. Results show that there has been a significant increase in warm daily extremes and a decrease in cold ones, both on large and small spatial scales. The increase in warm extremes has been found to be highly correlated with the increase in mean temperature. The changes in daily extremes are well represented in climate model simulations. Changes in the persistent extremes show a detectable increase in the frequency of warm and a decrease in cold events and are reproducible by models.

Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wird der Aufbau eines kompakten, mobilen Labor-Rastermikroskopes beschrieben. Das Mikroskop ist konzipiert für den Einsatz mit Strahlung aus dem extrem ultravioletten Spektrum und konnte bei 13 und 17 nm Wellenlänge erfolgreich getestet werden. Der Anwendungsbereich läßt sich ohne Probleme auf weiche Röntgenstrahlung ausdehnen, um zum Beispiel den für biologische Untersuchungen interessanten Bereich des Wasserfensters zwischen 2,3 und 4,4 nm Wellenlänge zu erschließen. Als Laborquelle für Strahlung des extrem ultravioletten Spektralbereiches kommen beispielsweise laserinduzierte Plasmen in Frage. Diese sind heute gut verstanden und stellen Quellen für kontinuierliche und diskrete Strahlung bis in den Röntgenbereich dar. Ihre zeitliche Stabilität und die Konversionseffizienz ist ausreichend, so daß laserinduzierte Plasmen gute Voraussetzungen für abbildende Anwendungen wie die Mikroskopie bieten. Auf Grund ihres Erzeugungsprozesses mit kurzen Laserpulsen ist auch die Pulslänge der erzeugten Hohe-Harmonische Strahlung sehr kurz und liegt im Bereich einiger Femtosekunden bis mehrere Hundert Attosekunden. Zusätzlich wird die erzeugte Hohe-Harmonische Strahlung in einem kleinen Öffnungswinkel abgestrahlt, so daß sie nahezu vollständig für ein Experiment genutzt werden kann. Mit dieser neuen Technik steht eine weitere Laborquelle für extrem ultraviolette Strahlung zur Verfügung. Zusätzlich lassen sich dynamische Prozesse auf kurzen Zeitskalen detektieren und analysieren. Damit bilden Quellen für Hohe-Harmonische Strahlung eine gute Ergänzung zu laserinduzierten Plasmen. Beide Quelltypen bieten die Möglichkeit, rastermikroskopische Experimente von Großeinrichtungen wie Elektronenspeicherringen in das Labor zu verlagern. Untersuchungsverfahren wie Spektromikroskopie, Photoelektronen- oder Röntgenfluoreszenzspektroskopie können übertragen und um die Zeitauflösung ergänzt werden. Das im Rahmen dieser Arbeit aufgebaute Rastermikroskop wurde an beiden Laborquellen erfolgreich getestet und betrieben. Hierfür war es zunächst notwendig, die verschiedenen Quellen zu charakterisieren und die optimalen Bedingungen für eine hohe, stabile Photonenrate zu bestimmen. Mit optimierten Quelleigenschaften wurden mit dem Rastermikroskop verschiedene Testobjekte vergrößert abgebildet. Dabei wurde mit einer Gitterstruktur eine Auflösung von 500 nm nachgewiesen. / In this work the development of a compact, mobile laboratory scanning microscope is described. The spectral range for which the microscope is designed and was tested successfully is in the extremely ultraviolet. Without problems the range of application can be extended into the soft X-ray region, for example into the area interesting for biological examinations of the water window between 2.3 and 4.4 nm wavelength. As a laboratory source for extremely ultraviolet radiation, for example, laser-induced plasmas are suited. Today these sources are understood well and represent sources for X-ray radiation. Their temporal stability and the conversion efficiency is sufficient, so that laser-induced plasmas offer good presuppositions for imaging applications like microscopy. Due to the production process with short laser pulse lengths the length of the produced high harmonic pulse is also short. The length is in the timescale of some femtoseconds down to several hundred attoseconds. In addition, high harmonic radiation is emitted in a narrowed cone. Therefore the most of the radiation is available for the experiments. With this new technology another laboratory source for extrem ultraviolet radiation is available. Dynamic processes on short time scales can be detected and analyzed. Therefore high harmonic radiation is a good supplement to radiation from laser-induced plasmas. Both source types provide the opportunity to shift scanning microscopy experiments from large facilities like electron storage rings into the laboratory. Examination procedures like spectro-microscopy, photoelectron or X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy can be transferred and supplemented by time resolved measurements. The scanning microscope constructed within the framework of this dissertation was tested and used at both laboratory sources successfully. Therefore it was first necessary to characterize the different sources and to determine the optimal conditions for a high and stable photon rate. With optimized source conditions different test objects were imaged with the scanning microscope. Using a grating structure a resolution of 500 nm is demonstrated.

We consider k maximum’s multiplication where factors are independently distributed random extremes of independent identically distributed random variables which are distributed uniformly over (0, 1). We find distribution function, limiting distribution function and estimate convergence rate.

No description available.

Universiẗat, Diss., 2004--Bonn.