Previous tornado climatology research has relied primarily upon means of tornadoes or tornado days. Understanding the variability of tornado days however, will result in a more comprehensive understanding of the climatological distribution of tornadoes. In a changing environment, the extremities of a distribution should change faster than the mean of that distribution. Two methods of analyzing tornado days for predefined areas across the continental United States using the Storm Prediction Center's publication Storm Data from 1950 to 2011 are conducted in this study. Statistical analysis of averages, return periods, and percentiles reveals the variability in the record while consecutive tornado days present an alternative way to assess the seasonal repeatability and to assess risk for historic, multi-day tornado outbreaks. The results of this research will help to better define the traditional “tornado alley” as well as highlight other high-risk locations, especially those with higher interannual variability.

Globally, species are experiencing geographical range shifts as a result of increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events exceeding their realized thermal niche boundaries. Using thermal limit approximations, relative heat indices can predict species extinction-colonization patterns over broad spatial scales. Locally, microclimate refugia can act as buffers against short term thermal extremes and improve species persistence probabilities. Opportunities to explore the role of microclimates in local species extinctions have recently emerged with advances in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and thermal imaging technologies. My first chapter proposed a UAV-based methodology facilitating direct and accurate air temperature measurements at biologically relevant scales for butterfly species. These high-resolution microclimate measurements enabled broad-scale thermal limit approximation model applications to patch-level measurements using a verified thermal positioning index. In my second chapter, I evaluated the applicability of broad-scale models for predictions of local species distributions and abundances. The methodology proposed in Chapter 1 was used to generate patch-specific thermal position indices for butterfly species observed and surveyed in our study patches. Patch-level measurements of thermally tolerable area (overheating index) helped predict aspects of butterfly abundance, presence, and overall species richness, along with other environmental metrics that are relevant for butterfly biology. This thesis explores a frontier of direct UAV-based microclimate measurements and underscores the importance of considering thermal extremes to understand butterfly distribution and abundance, even in protected habitats.

Submitted by Lucienne Costa (lucienneferreira@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-08-13T17:25:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 JORDANNA SOUSA DE MELO – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2017.pdf: 3551837 bytes, checksum: 84c4d559fd24d6944745d0099094fe06 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-13T17:25:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JORDANNA SOUSA DE MELO – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2017.pdf: 3551837 bytes, checksum: 84c4d559fd24d6944745d0099094fe06 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-15 / Com o intuito de identificar e analisar as ondas de calor e de frio que ocorrem no Rio Grande do Sul foi utilizado quatro diferentes procedimentos em 13 estações meteorológicas, espacialmente distribuídas no Estado, entre os anos de 1961 a 2010. Foram consideradas ondas de calor e frio os períodos de cinco ou mais dias consecutivos de anomalias positivas e negativas de temperaturas máximas e mínimas, respectivamente. Calculou-se as médias climatológicas de temperaturas máximas e mínimas anual, estacional e diárias, e em seguida o número de ondas de calor e de frio para cada localidade, anual e sazonal pelos métodos Índice da Organização Meteorológica Mundial (IOMM), Índice Diário (ID), Índice Sazonal (IS) e RClimdex. Ao comparar os métodos verificou-se que o IOMM foi o que detectou o maior número de eventos, os métodos ID e IS praticamente não detectam ondas de calor no verão e de frio no inverno e o RClimdex mostrou-se incapaz de detectar a variabilidade internual de ondas de calor e frio no Rio Grande do Sul. Com relação às configurações espaciais das médias climatológicas das temperaturas do ar máximas e mínimas durante os dias de ondas de calor e frio, respectivamente, assim como os próprios números de dias de ondas calor e frio observou-se um gradiente do litoral para o interior e de sudeste para noroeste. De certa forma estas configurações é uma resposta aos efeitos da continentalidade, latitude e relevo. Quanto à associação da influencia dos eventos El Niño e La Niña no número de ondas de calor e frio observou-se que, em média, ocorrem um número maior de ondas de calor nos anos de El Niño e de frio nos anos de La Niña, entretanto, esta relação não é estatisticamente significativa. Portanto, não é possível afirmar categoricamente que em anos de El Niño tem-se um maior número de ondas de calor e nos de La Niña de frio. / In order to identify and analyze the heat and cold waves that occur in Rio Grande do Sul four different procedures were used in 13 meteorological stations, spatially distributed in the State, between 1961 and 2010. Heat waves were considered and periods of five or more consecutive days of positive and negative anomalies of maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The annual, seasonal and daily maximum and minimum climatic averages were calculated, followed by the number of heat and cold waves for each locality, annual and seasonal, using the World Meteorological Organization (IOMM), Daily Index (ID), Seasonal Index (IS) and RClimdex. When comparing the methods it was verified that the IOMM was the one that detected the greatest number of events, the ID and IS methods practically did not detect heat waves in summer and cold in the winter and RClimdex was unable to detect the internal variability of heat and cold waves in Rio Grande do Sul. Regarding the spatial configurations of the climatological means of the maximum and minimum air temperatures during the days of heat and cold waves, respectively, as well as the number of days of heat waves and cold it was observed a gradient of the coast inland and from southeast to northwest. In some ways these settings are a response to the effects of continental, latitude and relief. As for the association of the influence of the El Niño and La Niña events on the number of heat and cold waves, it was observed that, on average, a larger number of heat waves occur in the El Niño and cold years in La Niña, however, this relationship is not statistically significant. Therefore, it is not possible to state categorically that in El Niño years there is a greater number of heat waves and that of La Niña of cold.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23164号 / 工博第4808号 / 新制||工||1752(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 立川 康人, 准教授 KIM SUNMIN, 教授 中北 英一 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

This thesis examines the co-occurrence of wintertime low temperature extremes (cold spells) over North America and wet or windy extremes over Europe. Prolonged (≅ 5 days) North American cold spells can be associated with both upstream and downstream anomalous large-scale atmospheric flows, the latter modulating extreme weather occurrences over Europe. The approximate co-occurrence of European wet or windy extremes with North American cold spells is temporally and spatially dependent on the location of cold spells. We identify three broad regional clusters of cold spells:  Central Canada: cold spells are predominantly preceded by Iberian precipitation extremes. Eastern United States: occurrences of both wind and precipitation extremes in Iberia before and after the cold spell. East Canada: cold spells are predominantly followed by wind extremes over the British Isles and Northern Europe. We show that cold spells over these three regions are associated with distinct storm track and jet stream anomalies over the North Atlantic. Iberia experiences a higher number of extratropical cyclones during Central Canada cold spells due to an equatorward displacement of the jet. However, the propagation of extratropical cyclones over Europe is limited due to a Scandinavian block-type configuration over Northern Europe. Eastern United States cold spells show a similar configuration to Central Canada. However, this configuration does not show the Scandinavian block-type feature, resulting in a higher number of extratropical cyclones affecting Iberia and Southern Europe. Eastern Canada cold spells are associated with an extended and accelerated jet over Northern Europe. As a result, the UK, France and Northern Europe experience more intense extratropical cyclones on average, with the accelerated jet resulting in stronger extratropical cyclones throughout the North Atlantic in general. These results evidence the existence of a systematic statistical and dynamical connection between North American cold spells and European wet or windy extremes.

The statistical modeling of extreme natural hazards is becoming increasingly important due to climate change, whose effects have been increasingly visible throughout the last decades. It is thus crucial to understand the dependence structure of rare, high-impact events over space and time for realistic risk assessment. For spatial extremes, max-stable processes have played a central role in modeling block maxima. However, the spatial tail dependence strength is persistent across quantile levels in those models, which is often not realistic in practice. This lack of flexibility implies that max-stable processes cannot capture weakening dependence at increasingly extreme levels, resulting in a drastic overestimation of joint tail risk. To address this, we develop new dependence models in this thesis from the class of max-infinitely divisible (max-id) processes, which contain max-stable processes as a subclass and are flexible enough to capture different types of dependence structures. Furthermore, exact simulation algorithms for general max-id processes are typically not straightforward due to their complex formulations. Both simulation and inference can be computationally prohibitive in high dimensions. Fast and exact simulation algorithms to simulate max-id processes are provided, together with methods to implement our models in high dimensions based on the Vecchia approximation method. These proposed methodologies are illustrated through various environmental datasets, including air temperature data in South-Eastern Europe in an attempt to assess the effect of climate change on heatwave hazards, and sea surface temperature data for the entire Red Sea. In another application focused on assessing how the spatial extent of extreme precipitation has changed over time, we develop new time-varying $r$-Pareto processes, which are the counterparts of max-stable processes for high threshold exceedances.

Warming climate will affect communities across Canada. Many of these communities do not have the adaptive capacity to deal with climate change related challenges. Indigenous communities are believed to be disproportionally affected by climate change because of the lack of adequate infrastructure, and historical and political obstacles that limit their overall adaptive capacity. Therefore, climate change data and information are required to understand the full extent to which these communities are exposed to climate risks. Many past studies in the literature have outlined the effects of climate change at large spatial scales. While these studies are important for understanding the broad effects of climate change, they are not useful for community or local adaptation planning. Ultimately, climate change impacts will be felt at a local level. Hence, high resolution climate change impact studies are urgently needed to capture the realities of these effects in greater detail and to provide relevant data and information at local and community levels, in particular for marginalized and Indigenous communities. Using observed meteorological and hydrologic data, high-resolution downscaled future climate simulations, and a process-based hydrologic model, this thesis explored the physical impacts of climate change on the Six Nations of the Grand River (Six Nations) reserve, which is the largest (by population) Indigenous community in Canada and the seventh largest in the United States and Canada. Changing climate conditions and extreme climate trends in the Six Nations reserve were explored using the widely used ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) extreme climate indices. Results indicated a warming and wetting trend in Six Nations, with the temperature rising by 3°C to 6°C by the end of the century and changes in seasonal precipitation. Extreme high temperature and precipitation indices will increase, causing potential human health impacts and increased flooding hazards for the community. A warming climate directly impacts the hydrological cycle and patterns. Analysis conducted using the Coupled Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow Model (GSFLOW) found that the McKenzie Creek - an important water provider for Six Nations - is sensitive to climate change due to its reliance on precipitation. Furthermore, study results showed that winter precipitation and streamflow are projected to increase, and snowpack water content is expected to decrease. These changes in streamflow will cause earlier winter-spring flooding events. Furthermore, agricultural production may be affected by reduced spring soil moisture recharge. Additionally, GSFLOW projected little to no change in late spring and summer streamflow which resulted in low water availability (Ptot-ET) during the growing season. Water availability was further examined by assessing future Blue Water (BW) and Green Water (GW) scarcity in the McKenzie Creek watershed. The water footprint method was used to calculate BW and GW scarcity. Study results showed that under current levels of water usage, BW scarcity would be “low” in the future. However, BW scarcity would increase to “significant” levels in the future, if water users started to withdraw more water for consumption, assuming maximum water withdrawal allocation (i.e., 0.47 m3s-1). This level of BW scarcity has the potential to cause ecological degradation and exacerbate water quality issues in the McKenzie Creek watershed. GW scarcity showed a steadily increasing trend throughout the 21st century due to climate warming. Spatial analysis showed that the western portion of the McKenzie Creek watershed may experience slightly higher levels of GW water scarcity in the future because of the lower water holding capacity of the soil. This may cause water users to withdraw more BW resources in western upstream areas, thereby decreasing BW available for downstream communities, including the Six Nations. Such disparity in water use among Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities may affect community relationships and social cohesion in the area. This thesis provides decision makers in Six Nations and more broadly in the McKenzie Creek watershed area with relevant climate change impact data and information that can be used in future climate change adaptation planning, disaster risk mitigation, and water resources management. Moreover, the results highlight the need for a comprehensive climate change vulnerability assessment of the Six Nations. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / This study presents the analysis of precipitation trends for the Southern region of Brazil, for three present climate periods with a comparison between precipitation data and data of the regional Model RegCM3 and an analysis of future climate tendency. The study also presents the pattern of precipitation variability which operates in the South region o f Brazil. Using the Principal Components Analysis for daily precipitation data filtered in 2/20 day band, 20/100 day band and interannual band, spatial and temporal fields were found which represent the maximum variance of certain variabilities and in these, the variability pattern of precipitation for each season. And with the standard deviation series it was possible to determine the quantity of dry and rainy events present in each variability pattern. The pattern were calculated in three periods: from 1981 to 2007 for the precipitation data by Dr. Liebmann, from 1982 to 2006 for the data of the RegCM3 Model and from 2070 to 2086 for the data of the Model for future climate, being the A2 the scenery for emission used for the last period (considered pessimist). Three variability pattern were found, they were denominated Modo Sul, Modo PR and Modo Niño. / Este trabalho apresenta a análise de tendências de precipitação para a região Sul do Brasil, para três conjuntos de dados com uma comparação entre dados de precipitação e dados do Modelo regional RegCM3 e uma análise de tendência para o clima futuro. O trabalho também apresenta os modos de variabilidade de precipitação que atuam na região Sul do Brasil. Utilizando a análise de componentes principais em dados de precipitação diária filtrados nas bandas 2/20 dias, 20/100 dias e banda interanual foram encontrados campos espaciais e temporais que representam a máxima variância de determinadas variabilidades, e neles foram detectados os modos de variabilidade de precipitação para cada estação do ano. E com as séries de desvio padrão foi possível determinar a quantidade de eventos secos e chuvosos presentes em cada modo de variabilidade. Os modos foram calculados para três períodos: de 1981 a 2007 para os dados de precipitação do Dr. Liebmann, de 1982 a 2006 para os dados do Modelo RegCM3 e de 2070 a 2086 para os dados do Modelo para o clima futuro, sendo que o cenário de emissão utilizado para este ultimo período foi o A2 (considerado pessimista). Foram encontrados três modos de variabilidade denominados Modo Sul, Modo PR e Modo Niño.

Seit der industriellen Revolution haben Menschen durch Verbrennung von fossilen Energieträgern die Treibhausgaskonzentration in der Atmosphäre erhöht. Die daraus folgende Erderwärmung hat weitreichende Folgen für das Klima, unter anderem häufigere und intensivere Wetterextreme. Wegen ihrer gravierenden Auswirkungen auf die Gesellschaft, ist es von allgemeinem Interesse zu verstehen, wie der menschengemachte Klimawandel diese Wetterextreme beeinflusst. In dieser kumulativen Dissertation analysiere ich erst zwei komplexe Wettereignisse, die die Nahrungsmittelproduktion in Europa beeinträchtigen: Frosttage nach dem Beginn der Apfelblüte und Feuchte Frühsommerperioden nach warmen Wintern. In einer dritten Studie untersuche ich wie dynamische Klimaveränderungen in den mittleren Breiten der Nordhalbkugel zu beständigerem Sommerwetter beitragen. Schließlich beschäftige ich mich mit tropischen Stürmen im Nordatlantik und damit, wie sie von der globalen Erwärmung beeinflusst werden. Eine zentrale methodische Herausforderung in diesem Forschungsfeld ist, dass Wetterextreme per Definition selten sind und dass es aufgrund der starken internen Klimavariabilität schwierig ist, die Veränderungen zu quantifizieren, die auf den menschgemachten Klimawandel zurück zu führen sind. In dieser Arbeit verfolge ich zweigegenläufige Ansätze um mit dieser Herausforderung um zu gehen: 1) Ich verwende große Klimasimulationsensembles um den Effekt der internen Klimavariabilität aus zu glätten und dadurch die erzwungenen Veränderungen beim Apfelfrost und in der Persistenz zu ergründen. 2) Mit Methoden, die auf Beobachtungsdaten beruhen, quantifiziere ich den Einfluss der internen Klimavariabilität auf tropische Zyklone um dann einschätzen zu können, in welchem Maß der beobachtete Anstieg der tropischen Zyklonaktivität im Atlantik der internen Klimavariabilität oder erzwungenen Veränderungen zugeschrieben werden kann. / Since the industrial revolution, humans have increased the greenhouse gas concentration of the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. The resulting global warming has far reaching impacts on the climate system including increasingly frequent and intense weather extremes. Due to the severe impacts these weather extremes cause to societies, there is a strong interest in understanding how anthropogenic climate change affects weather extremes. In this cumulative thesis I first study two compound weather extremes that affect food production in Europe: frost days after apple blossom and wet early summers after warm winters. In a third study I quantify how dynamic changes in the climate system contribute to more persistent summer weather extremes in the northern hemispheric mid-latitudes. Finally, I analyze tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin and changes in tropical cyclone activity as a result of global warming. One central methodological challenge in the research field is that weather extremes are rare by definition and that due to the strong internal climate variability it is difficult to quantify changes that are forced by anthropogenic climate change. In this thesis I explore two divergent approaches to this challenge: 1) Using large ensemble climate simulations I smooth out the effect of internal variability thereby exposing the forced change in apple frost and weather persistence. 2) Using observation based approaches, I quantify the contributions of internal climate variability on tropical cyclones in order to subsequently estimate to which extent the observed increase in tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic can be attributed to internal climate variability or forced changes.

En Europe, l'augmentation des températures moyennes de surface de l'air projetée au cours du 21ème siècle s'accompagne d'une augmentation des extrêmes chauds et d'une diminution des extrêmes froids. Dans les dernières décennies, des indices témoignent déjà de ces changements, comme l'établissement récurrent de nouveaux records de chaleur ou l'augmentation des canicules. Nous étudions l'évolution des extrêmes journaliers de température au cours du 20ème et du 21ème siècle en France et en Europe, et ce en termes d'occurrence et d'intensité. Un intérêt particulier est aussi porté aux mécanismes responsables de ces futurs extrêmes climatiques, ainsi qu'aux futures températures maximales. Nous nous intéressons tout d'abord à l'évolution des records journaliers de température à partir d'observations et de modèles de climat. Entre 1950 et 1980, l'évolution théorique des records dans le cadre d'un climat stationnaire représente correctement l'évolution observée des records chauds et froids. Depuis les années 1980, un écart à ce climat stationnaire est observé, avec respectivement une augmentation et une diminution de l'occurrence des records chauds et froids. Les modèles climatiques suggèrent une accentuation de ces changements au cours du siècle. L'occurrence moyenne des records chauds à la fin du siècle présente une forte augmentation par rapport aux premières décennies de la période observée. L'augmentation la plus importante des records chauds est projetée en été, en particulier dans la région méditerranéenne. Quant aux records froids, les modèles indiquent une diminution très importante de leur occurrence, avec une occurrence quasi-nulle dans les dernières décennies. Les variations observées d'occurrence de records sont, au début du 21ème siècle, toujours dans l'éventail des fluctuations de la variabilité interne du climat. Au cours du siècle, l'émergence de l'influence anthropique de ces fluctuations est détectable dans l'évolution des records chauds et froids en été, et ce respectivement autour des décennies 2030 et 2020. À l'horizon de la fin du siècle, les changements moyens d'occurrence de records ne peuvent pas être uniquement expliqués par des fluctuations naturelles. Nous nous sommes ensuite intéressés aux futures températures estivales extrêmes, ainsi qu'aux canicules intenses qui peuvent être à l'origine de ces extrêmes. Pour cela, l'utilisation de modèles climatiques globaux est associée à la modélisation climatique régionale et à des stations d'observations en France. Tout d'abord, l'augmentation maximale des valeurs maximales des records journaliers de température en été en France est estimée à partir d'une simulation régionale à haute résolution spatiale. À l'horizon 2100, les projections indiquent une augmentation maximale de ces valeurs extrêmes en été comprise entre de 6.6°C et 9.9°C selon les régions de la France. La comparaison de ces projections avec un ensemble de modèles climatiques indique que ces augmentations maximales pourraient être plus importantes. La médiane de la distribution des modèles indique en effet une augmentation maximale de ces valeurs maximales des records journaliers de température de 11.8°C en été et en France. Puis, des expériences de modélisation de canicules intenses du climat européen de la fin du 21ème siècle ont été réalisées à partir d'événements particuliers d'un modèle de climat. Ces expériences ont mis en évidence le rôle des interactions entre le sol et l'atmosphère dans l'amplification des températures extrêmes lors de futurs évènements caniculaire intenses. L'occurrence de telles canicules est d'abord dépendante de la circulation atmosphérique, mais l'intensité des températures peut ensuite être fortement amplifiée en fonction du contenu en humidité des sols avant la canicule, et donc des conditions climatiques des semaines et des mois précédents. / Over the 21st century, the mean increase in surface air temperatures is projected to be associated with an increase in warm temperature extremes and a decrease in the cold ones. Over the last decades, evidence already suggests these changes, as for example recurrent warm record-breaking temperatures or the increase in heatwave occurrence. We investigate the evolution of daily temperature extremes over the 20th and the 21st centuries in France and in Europe, their possible changes in frequency and intensity. We also focus on the mechanisms responsible for these projected climate extremes, as well as the maximum values of temperature extremes at the end of the century. First, we investigate the evolution of daily record-breaking temperatures in Europe based on the observations and an ensemble of climate models. From the 1950s to the 1980s, the theoretical evolution of the records in a stationary climate correctly reproduce the observed one, for both cold and warm records. From 1980, a shift from that theoretical evolution is observed, with an increase in the occurrence of warm records and a decrease in the occurrence of the cold ones. Climate models suggest an amplification of these changes over the century. At the end of the 21st century, the mean number of warm records shows a strong increase compared to the first decades of the observed period. The strongest increase in warm record-breaking temperatures is found in summer, and particularly over the Mediterranean edge. On the contrary, the occurrence of cold record-breaking temperatures is projected to strongly decrease, with almost no new records in the last decades of the century, for all seasons and over the entire European domain. Observed variations of daily record-breaking temperatures are still, at the beginning of the 21st century, consistent with internal climate variability only. Over the century, the anthropogenic influence emerge from these fluctuations in the summer record evolutions, around the 2030 and the 2020 for the warm and cold records respectively. By 2100, the mean changes in record occurrences cannot be explained by the internal climate variability solely, for all seasons and over the entire European domain. Then, we investigate future extreme temperatures at the end of the 21st century, as well as severe heatwaves leading to these extremes. Climate models analyses are associated with regional climate modeling and a French station-based dataset of observations. The summer 21st century evolution of the maximum values of daily warm record-breaking temperatures is first examined in the observations and the high resolution simulation of the regional model. By 2100, an increase of these values is projected, with maximum changes between +6.6°C and +9.9°C in summer among the French regions. These projections assessed from a regional model may underestimate the changes. The multi-model mean estimate of the maximum increase of these values is indeed around +11.8°C in summer over France. Finally, regional modeling experiments of severe heatwaves in the climate of the end of the 21st century in Europe are performed. These severe heatwaves are selected cases from a global climate model trajectory. The experiments results show the role of the soil-atmosphere interactions in the amplification of the extreme temperatures during such future severe warm events. The occurrence of the heatwave is first caused by the atmospheric circulation, but the temperature anomaly can then be amplified according to the soil moisture content before the event, and thus the climatic conditions of the preceding weeks and months.