工業革命後傳統經濟發展模式成功地使經濟活動與經濟成長成為世界上大多數國家的政治議題，但大量提高產業生產的結果使得地球上的資源消耗與廢棄物製造量所造成的生態耗損速度遠超過自然再生速度。另一方面，由於「科技」與「貿易」的影響，生物新陳代謝加諸於人類的負荷將透過產業的新陳代謝更形擴大，在高度工業化國家物質消費程度與形式更受到消費主義的鼓舞，形成毫無節制的消費與浪費。近年來台灣地區加入世界貿易組織（World Trade Organization， WTO）引起廣泛的環境與貿易議題的討論，其中農業議題尤為顯著，究竟台灣地區加入WTO後之農地轉用政策是否可使土地資源利用達到永續經營之目標，引發本研究之研究動機。 本研究以生態足跡分析及貿易與永續發展相關理念為基礎，以1991到1996年台灣地區的農業產業做為研究的時空範圍，進行台灣地區耕地與牧草地生態足跡之實證計算並加以分析。在理論方面，首先就永續性之整體面向及各別領域面向推論出生態經濟學之定義符合整體面向之強永續性觀念；其次重新思考人類容受力定義，非以支持最大人口數（單位：人╱土地）而是轉向計算某一族群在持續基礎下生產所有消費物質及消化所有廢棄物所需的土地及水域面積（單位：土地╱人）之生態足跡（ecological footprint）觀念；在貿易與永續發展理念推論部份，則以IISD（1994、1995）、ICTSD（1995）及Cosbey（1998）等之相關研究作為理論基礎；最後，結合生態足跡、貿易及永續發展三者之理論。 在實證方面，本研究修正國內外多項研究後，重新定義符合台灣地區之生態足跡計算項目，並計算台灣地區1991到1996年農業（耕地與牧草地）之生態足跡，得知台灣地區農業消費中佔耕地生態足跡比例較重的項目分別為稻米、其他作物、豆類、種子油及進出口紗布、紡織製成品、成衣及服飾品及鞋類等五項，而影響台灣地區農業之牧草地生態足跡面積較大的因子包括羊毛及皮革、獸皮兩項；將這些項目與行政院農委會WTO農業因應對策項目對照後，發現影響最大的兩項分別為稻米及農園特產之豆類；因此本研究就稻米與豆類兩項產業加入WTO前後對台灣地區生態足跡、生態標竿、及生態赤字之影響進行進一步研究，並分析該兩項產業完全轉用為非農業使用與完全無轉用對生態足跡之影響，以評估該兩項產業加入WTO是否為一永續性策略。 本研究的研究結果發現，不論是稻米或豆類，其生態足跡與耕地生態標竿間的差距在無論有無造成農地轉用的情形下，都對該值影響不大，亦即不因加入WTO而有所改變。就生態足跡的理念觀之，若加入WTO使進口量增加的結果造成產業生產力提昇、進口產業以內銷為主、對國內生產量影響程度愈大，相對生態足跡面積降低程度愈大者及農地轉用為同類別使用等這四種影響的情形之下，則台灣地區加入WTO可視為永續性策略。 / After the Industrial Revolution, traditional economic development models have successfully made economic activities and economic growth a political issue for most countries around the world. However, with the greatly enhanced industrial productivity has come instensified uses of the resources of the earth, and the ecological depletion rate resulting from solid waste volumes has far exceeded nature's regenerative capacities. On the other hand, due to the influence of technology and trade, the natural biological metabolism, already carrying a human load, is being expanded and intensified by the industrial metabolism. In highly industrialized countries, the degree and form of material consumption has been inspired by consumerism, engendering virtually unlimited consumption and waste. In recent years, while Taiwan has been seeking to join the World Trade Organization (WTO), there have been pervasive discussions on the subject of trade and the environment. Among these, agricultural issues have been prevalent. Should Taiwan join the WTO, will the farmland transformation policy permit land resource usage to meet the objectives for sustainable development? This question is the motivation for this dissertation. This dissertation is based on the ecological footprint analysis, along with trade and sustainable development theories. The timeframe for reseach extends from 1991 to 1996, focussing on Taiwan's agricultural industry. Ecological footprint analyses were calculated based on factual evidence/data from Taiwan's arable land and pasture land. In terms of applied theories, first, considering both the comprehensive entirety as well as individual discrete segments, we conclude that the definitions of eco-economics are in agreement with the concept of the strong sustainability. Next, we reconsider the definition of human carrying capacity, not basing this concept on the support of a maximum population base (Unit: per capita/ha), but rather on the calculation of the land and water needed by a certain group (Unit: ha/per capita), existing on a continuous base, to effectively produce all consumer materials and absorb all solid waste. In respect to trade and sustainable development theories, we use related studies such as IISD（1994、1995）, ICTSD（1995）, and Cosbey（1998） to be our theoretical base. Finally, we combine the three theoretical constructs, namely the concept of the ecological footprint, trade, and sustainable development. In carrying out our research on factual evidence/data, this dissertation modifies research previously conducted by a number of researchers. We redefine the calculation parameters for Taiwan's ecological footprint, finely calculating the ecological footprint for the agriculture industry (arable land and pasture land) for Taiwan in the 1991 to 1996 period. We learn that in terms of agricultural usage and consumption in Taiwan, the five key items with the largest shares of the arable land footprint are: rice, other cereals, pulses, seed oils, and import/export textile yarn, fabrics, articles of apparel and clothing accessories, footwear. Factors demonstrating the greatest influence on Taiwan's pasture land ecological footprint are: wool and leather, and animal hides. When we compare these findings with policies of the Council of Agriculture for entering into the WTO, we confirm that rice and pulses are indeed the two items of greatest importance. Therefore, this dissertation will focus on the rice and pulses industry before and after entering into the WTO, and on their influence on Taiwan's ecological footprint, ecological benchmark, and ecological deficit. We will also analyze possible consequences should these two industries be transformed to non-agricultural uses, or, if no such changes are instituted, what the consequences will be for Taiwan's ecological footprint. Based on these findings, we will evaluate whether the allowance of entry of these two industries into the WTO is a sustainable strategy. Our research findings reveal that, whether or not we transform farmlands from the rice and pulses industries, there will be no significant impacts on the anticipated gap between the ecological footprint and the arable land ecological benchmark. This means there will be no significant change should there be entering into the WTO. Thus, from the perspective of ecological footprint analysis, if we join the WTO and the result is an increase in imports, this will enhance our industrial productivity; imported items will be fully consumed domestically; the greater the influence on domestic production volumes the greater the decrease in the ecological footprint area; and, farmlands will be transformed to non-agricultural uses. Because of the above four factors, it can be said that joining the WTO will probably be considered as a policy of sustainability. 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究目的與內容 5 第三節 研究流程與問題限制 9 第二章 基本理念與文獻評析 13 第一節 永續性理念及知識性工具 13 第二節 永續發展評估工具－生態足跡分析 26 第三節 貿易與永續發展關係之研究 44 第四節 生態足跡的比較利益基礎 57 第五節 永續發展與WTO環境與貿易議題之探討 63 第三章 永續發展與WTO相關農業議題探討 69 第一節 台灣地區加入WTO各項農業議題之協定 69 第二節 台灣地區加入WTO各項農業議題之對策 84 第三節 台灣地區加入WTO農業議題對永續發展之影響 94 第四章 台灣地區農業生態足跡分析實證研究 99 第一節 生態足跡分析架構之建立 99 第二節 台灣地區歷年農業生態足跡評估 109 第三節 台灣地區農業生態標竿之建立與生態足跡分析結果 118 第五章 台灣地區稻米及農園特產之生態足跡與WTO農業相關議題之探討.124 第一節 台灣地區農業生態足跡與WTO農業議題對應項目分析 124 第二節 台灣地區因應加入WTO農業議題對應項目與台灣地區稻米及農園特產生態足跡影響因子分析 130 第六章 加入WTO對台灣地區永續發展影響之探討 142 第一節 以生態足跡觀點解讀加入WTO是否為永續性策略 142 第二節 以貿易與永續發展原則檢視台灣地區加入WTO是否為永續性策略 146 第七章 結論與建議 149 第一節 結論 149 第二節 後續研究建議 154