<p>The aim for this thesis is to evaluate whether there is a risk for Sweden to be the subject of a financial crisis. This question is addressed by making a comparative analysis of three different periods in time. These are the prelude to the crisis in the early 90’s, the period before the substantial decrease in the market value of IT-related stock followed by a short recession 2001-2003 and lastly the still on-going economic boom which started about three years ago. The variables and indicators we are focusing on are mainly the same which have been used in earlier studies in this field. We examine the interest risk rate of banks by looking at the variations in market value between assets and liabilities using duration mismatch analysis. We also study the average debt-level among firms, the debt-level of households, currency fluctuations, trade-deficit levels. We analyze our empirical results utilizing crisis theories as well as looking at Sweden’s experiences of financial troubles.</p><p>Our most important results shows that Sweden is unlikely to become a subject of a financial crisis. The main reasons for that statement is that the banks are becoming more prudent in their lending policies. The debt-ratio among the public is today lower than the period before the crisis in the 90’s. Second, the risk management among Swedish banks seem to have improved compared to past events. We can see this through witnessing a reduction in credit-loss and a better coverage of risky loans in their portfolios with own capital in accordance with the Basel guidelines in the later period compared to the previous periods. Third: using duration-gap analysis we conclude that the banks nowadays are better at matching their short-term debts with long-term loans. Fourth, Sweden’s trade surplus is a huge contrast compared to the trade deficit the years before the financial crisis of the 90’s which implies that the productivity in the Swedish firms has improved and their debt-levels have been reduced.</p>

The aim for this thesis is to evaluate whether there is a risk for Sweden to be the subject of a financial crisis. This question is addressed by making a comparative analysis of three different periods in time. These are the prelude to the crisis in the early 90’s, the period before the substantial decrease in the market value of IT-related stock followed by a short recession 2001-2003 and lastly the still on-going economic boom which started about three years ago. The variables and indicators we are focusing on are mainly the same which have been used in earlier studies in this field. We examine the interest risk rate of banks by looking at the variations in market value between assets and liabilities using duration mismatch analysis. We also study the average debt-level among firms, the debt-level of households, currency fluctuations, trade-deficit levels. We analyze our empirical results utilizing crisis theories as well as looking at Sweden’s experiences of financial troubles. Our most important results shows that Sweden is unlikely to become a subject of a financial crisis. The main reasons for that statement is that the banks are becoming more prudent in their lending policies. The debt-ratio among the public is today lower than the period before the crisis in the 90’s. Second, the risk management among Swedish banks seem to have improved compared to past events. We can see this through witnessing a reduction in credit-loss and a better coverage of risky loans in their portfolios with own capital in accordance with the Basel guidelines in the later period compared to the previous periods. Third: using duration-gap analysis we conclude that the banks nowadays are better at matching their short-term debts with long-term loans. Fourth, Sweden’s trade surplus is a huge contrast compared to the trade deficit the years before the financial crisis of the 90’s which implies that the productivity in the Swedish firms has improved and their debt-levels have been reduced.

Bakgrund och problemdiskussion: Bankkrisen under 1990-talet och den globala krisen mellan 2007 -2009 har kommit som en kalldusch för de svenska storbankerna, Handelsbanken, Nordea, SEB och Swedbank, vilket har lett till betydande kreditförluster. Kreditförluster är den vanligaste orsaken till bankernas ekonomiska problem vid en finansiell kris då återbetalningsförmågan hos kredittagare försämras, samtidigt som det talar för att finansiella kriser är ett återkommande fenomen idag. Syfte: Syftet med detta examensarbete är att se vilka åtgärder i kreditprocessen som gjorts efter finanskriserna i de fyra svenska storbankerna samt även se hur tidigare gjorda åtgärder stod sig under den senaste krisen. Vår ambition med uppsatsen är att de resultat vi får fram ska kunna användas av bankerna i kreditprocessen så att de påverkas mindre vid framtida eventuella kriser. Metod: Uppsatsen grundar sig på en kvalitativ metod med respondenter med gedigen erfarenhet och ansvarspositioner inom storbankernas kreditprocesser och praktisk kunnighet gällande storbankernas påverkan av finansiella kriser. Slutsats: De svenska storbankernas kreditprocesser stod sig bra under den senaste globala krisen i jämförelse med bankkrisen under 1990-talet, orsaken till det är de åtgärder som gjordes i kreditprocessen efter bankkrisen inom banken. Kreditprocessen har under de senaste 20 åren gått från en delvis oprövad och snabb kreditprocess till att idag vara en mer sofistikerad och tungarbetad kreditprocess som ställer högre och strängare krav på kredittagarna. För att få kreditprocessen helt vaccinerad mot finanskriser anser vi att det behövs mer mod och integritet hos kredithandläggare för att på bästa sätt kunna förmedla den rådande situationen på ett korrekt och snabbt sätt. / Background and problem discussion: The banking crisis during the 1990s and the global financial crisis between 2007-2009 came as a cold shower for the four biggest Swedish banks, Handelsbanken, Nordea, SEB and Swedbank and led to significant credit losses. Credit losses are the most common financial problems of banks during financial crises, because the repayment ability of borrowers can deteriorate. In addition, financial crises seem to be a recurring phenomenon today. Aim: The objective of this paper is to see what kind of changes that have been made after financial crisis, and also see how the previous changes during the recent banking crisis stood during the recent global crisis. Our ambition with the paper is that the results we obtain can be used by the Swedish banks credit process so that they are less vulnerable in the future. Method: The paper is based on a qualitative approach with respondents with extensive experience and influence in the credit process. The respondents in the four biggest banks have practical experience of the banks impact after the financial crises. Conclusion: The biggest Swedish banks credit process did well during the last financial crisis in comparison with the banking crisis in the 1990s. One of the reasons are the changes made after the previous crisis related to credit processes.. The credit process has, during the past 20 years, gone from a partially untested and fast-credit process towards a more sophisticated and heavy credit process which puts more responsibility on the borrowers. In order to fully protect banks against future financial crises, we believe more courage and integrity among credit managers is necessary. Upcoming threats needs to be reported in a proper and fast way.

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2007.