Maintaining structural stability is an integral component of building fire safety. Stability must be ensured to provide adequate time for safe egress of the buildings occupants, fire fighting operations and property protection. Structural fire engineering endeavours to design structures to withstand the effects of fire in order to achieve this objective. The behaviour of reinforced concrete in fire is not as well understood as other construction materials, such as steel. This is in part due to the complexity of concrete material behaviour and also due to concrete’s reputation of superior fire performance. Concrete technology is, however, continually evolving; structures are increasingly slender, more highly stressed and have higher compressive strengths. A more robust understanding of concrete’s behaviour in fire will enable predictions of the implications of changing concrete technology and also help to properly quantify the fire safety risk associated with concrete structures. A fundamental key to understanding structural fire performance is the relationship between the thermal environment induced by the fire and the structure. Significant thermal variation has been found experimentally to exist within fire compartments. Despite this the design of structures for fire almost universally assumes the compartment thermal environment to be homogeneous. In this thesis the implications of compartment fire non-uniformity for concrete structural behaviour is investigated to assess the validity of the uniform compartment temperature assumption. The investigation is conducted using numerical tools; a detailed review of the necessary background knowledge, material modelling of reinforced concrete, finite element modelling of reinforced concrete structures and compartment fire thermal variation is included. The behaviour of a two-way spanning reinforced concrete slab is used as a structural benchmark. The membrane behaviour exhibited by two-way spanning RC slabs at high temperatures has been previously studied under uniform thermal conditions. They therefore are an ideal benchmark for identifying the influence of non-uniform thermal environments for behaviour. The relationship between gas phase temperature variation and concrete thermal expansion behaviour, which is fundamental to understanding concrete high temperature structural behaviour, is first investigated. These preliminary studies provide the necessary fundamental understanding to identify the influence of gas phase temperature variation upon the membrane behaviour of reinforced concrete slabs. The individual influences of spatial and temporal variation upon slab membrane behaviour are investigated and the behaviour under non-uniform thermal variation contrasted with uniform thermal exposure behaviour. The influence of spatial variation of temperature is found to be strongly dependent upon the structural slenderness ratio. The tensile membrane action of slender slabs is particularly susceptible to the distorted slab deflection profiles induced by spatial variation of gas temperature. Conversely the compressive membrane behaviour of stocky slabs is found to be insensitive to the deformation effects induced by spatial variation of temperature. The influence upon slender slabs is demonstrated under a range of temporal variations indicating that the thermal response of concrete is sufficiently fast to be sensitive to realistically varying distributions of temperature. Contrasting behaviour induced by uniform and non-uniform thermal exposures indicates that uniform temperature assumptions provide both conservative and unconservative predictions of behaviour. The accuracy of the uniform temperature assumptions was also found to be dependent upon the type of fire, for example, fast hot and short cool fires. Additionally, the sensitivity of structural performance to deformations caused by spatial variation of temperature demonstrated in this thesis challenges the purely strength based focus of traditional structural fire engineering. Spalling is an important feature of concrete’s high temperature behaviour which is not currently explicitly addressed in design. The incorporation of spalling into structural analysis is not, however, straightforward. The influence of spalling upon behaviour has therefore been dealt with separately. A spalling design framework is developed to incorporate the effects of spalling into a structural analysis. Application of the framework to case studies demonstrates the potential for spalling to critically undermine the structural performance of concrete in fire. It also demonstrates how the framework can be used to quantify the effects of spalling and therefore account for these in the structural fire design addressing spalling risk in a rational manner.

In the savanna woodlands of Southern Africa, locally know as miombo, carbon cycling is poorly quantified and many of the key processes remain obscure. For example, seasonal constraints on productivity and leaf display are not well understood. Also, fire is known to be a key process, with around 50% of the annual global area burned occurring in Africa, but detailed understanding of its ecological effects is lacking. Land use change and woodland degradation are changing the structure and functioning of these tropical woodlands, which cover 2.7 million km2 of Southern Africa and provide ecosystem services which support the livelihoods of over 100 million people. In this thesis I quantify the major carbon stocks of the woodlands in Nhambita Regulado, Gorongosa District in Sofala Province, Mozambique. I also examine processes that affect these stocks, including fire and clearance for agriculture. Furthermore, I quantify the seasonal cycle of leaf display, and its relationship to climate. I conducted a series of experimental burns and found that fire intensity was strongly related to rates of top-kill and root stock mortality. Top-kill rates decreased as tree diameter increased up to 10 cm DBH. After this point increased size did not affect top-kill rates, possibly because of accumulated wounds and rottenness. I then extrapolated these results to long term predictions of tree populations and carbon stocks by modelling the interactions of fire, mortality and tree growth. The model was able to successfully predict woody vegetation structure at two sites with known fire regimes, including a 50-year fire experiment in Marondera, Zimbabwe. The results show that annual fires in miombo suppress all woody vegetation. Low intensity fires every 2.5 years are required to maintain observed stem biomass in Nhambita. High intensity fires lead to high top-kill rates (12%), even among large stems. Manipulating fire intensity rather than frequency seems to be the most practical approach to limiting degradation by fire in these ecosystems. Using a three year time series of hemispherical photographs of the tree canopy, combined with satellite data, I find that tree leaf phenology is not directly related to seasonal rainfall patterns, both in Nhambita and across Southern Africa. Pre-rain green-up is the dominant phenology, from the semi arid savannas of the south of the continent to the wet miombo of the Congo basin. Wet miombo woodlands have longer periods of green-up before rain onset (mean 60 days) compared with dry miombo (37 days). Green up-dates show little interannual variability but large spatial variability. The importance of pre-rain green-up in determining how these ecosystems will respond to changing rainfall patterns is unknown, but is an important area for future study. I quantified carbon stocks in the Nhambita woodlands in the soil (69% of total carbon stocks of 111 tC ha-1), tree stems (19%) and roots (8%) as well as other smaller pools. An allometric relationship between root and stem biomass and stem diameter was developed, and used to evaluate the uncertainties in stem carbon estimation at plot and landscape scale. We find that the uncertainty (95% confidence intervals) at plot scale can be quite large (60% of the mean) but this is reduced to around 25% at landscape scale. Strategies for effective inventories of miombo woodland are presented. Using a chronosequence of abandoned farmland, we estimate that stem biomass recovers from clearance after around 30 years of abandonment. Changes in soil carbon stocks are less well understood and need further work. This thesis concludes by outlining further work needed to model the carbon cycle of these woodlands, as well as discussing the implication of pre-rain green-up for satellite observations of land cover changes and biomass mapping.

The last two decades have witnessed the shift of structural fire design from prescriptive approaches to performance-based approaches in order to build more advanced structures while reducing costs. However, it is recognised that the implementation of performance-based approaches requires several key elements that are currently not fully developed or understood. This research set out to address some of these issues by focusing on the development, validation and application of methodologies for accurate predictions of thermal responses of structures in fire using numerical methods. This research firstly proposed a numerical approach with the finite element and the discrete ordinates method to quantify the fire imposed radiative heat fluxes to structural members with cavity geometry. With satisfactory results from the verification and validation tests, it is used to simulate heat transfer to unprotected steel I-sections with symmetrical cavities exposed to post-flashover fires. Results show that the cavity geometry could strongly attenuate the radiative energy, while the presence of hot smoke enhances radiative transfer by emission. Average radiative fluxes for the inner surfaces of the I-sections are seen to increase with smoke opacity. In addition, the net radiative fluxes are observed to decrease faster for I-sections with higher section factors. This work also shows that the self-radiating mechanism of I-sections is important in the optically thin region, and existing methodologies neglecting these physics could significantly underpredict steel temperatures. The next focus of this work is to develop a thermal analysis framework dedicated to structures-in-fire modelling in the OpenSees (Open System for Earthquake Engineering Simulation) platform which has been developed towards a highly robust, extensible and flexible numerical analysis framework for the structural fire engineering community. The thermal analysis framework, which is developed with object-oriented programming paradigm, consists of a fire module which has incorporated a range of conventional empirical models as well as the travelling fire model recently developed elsewhere to quantify the fire imposed boundary conditions, and a heat transfer module which addresses non-linear heat conduction in structural members with the finite element method. The developed work has demonstrated good performance from benchmark problems where analytical solutions are available and from full scale tests with measured data. With the thermal analysis capability developed in this work together with the work by other colleagues to quantify the mechanical response at elevated temperatures, the extended OpenSees framework can be used to predict structural performances subjected to a wide range of re scenarios. This work uses OpenSees for a case study of a generic composite structure subjected to travelling fires. The latest work on travelling fire methodology for structural fire design has been implemented in the OpenSees framework. The work presented in this thesis is the first effort to examine both the thermal and structural responses of a composite tall building in travelling fires using OpenSees. Results from the thermal analysis show that travelling fires of larger sizes (e.g. burning area equal to 50% of the floor area) are more detrimental to steel beams in terms of more rapid heating rate, while those of smaller sizes (e.g. burning area equal to 4% of the floor area) burn for longer duration and thus are more detrimental to concrete slabs in light of higher peak temperatures. The results also show that fires of large sizes tends to produce higher through-depth thermal gradients in the steel beam sections particularly in neighbouring regions with the concrete slab. Due to less rapid heating rates but prolonged burning durations, smaller fires produce lower thermal gradients but with higher temperatures in the concrete slab particularly at locations far from the fire origin. The subsequent structural analysis suggests that travelling fires produce higher deflections and higher plastic deformations in comparison with the uniform parametric fires, particularly with smaller fire sizes producing more onerous results. The results seem to be more physically convincing and they challenge the conventional assumption that the post-flashover fires are always more conservative for structural performance.

For the development of performance based design on a proper scientific basis the use of the concept of risk is inevitable. However, the application of this concept to actual structural design is not simple because of the large ranges of probability and consequences of events which exist. This is compounded by a plethora of different actions that can be taken to reduce the probabilities of the events and also the magnitude of the consequences. It is the reduction in the magnitude of these consequences which is essentially the goal of design. This work aims to address the challenges posed by the application of the concepts of performance based design for structures in fire. Simple methodologies have been developed for the assessment of the consequences of an extreme event. These methodologies are based upon fundamental behaviour of structures in fire. A methodology has been developed which can be used to assess the capacity/deflection behaviour through the complete thermal deflection of floor slabs. This takes into account positive effects on the capacity of floor slabs of the membrane stress at the slabs boundaries at low deflections as well as the final capacity provided by the tensile membrane action of the reinforcement mesh at high deflections. For vertical stability of structures in fire, analytical equations to describe the behaviour of floor systems at the perimeter of a building are developed. From these equations, the resulting pull-in forces on external columns can be calculated as well as the resulting horizontal load applied to the column. From this, a simple stability assessment is proposed which can be used to assess the consequences of multiple floor fires on tall buildings. These analytical methodologies are brought together in a risk based frame- work for structural design which can be used to identify areas in a building or structural components which pose a high residual risk. These elements can be qualitatively ’ranked’ according to their relative risk and appropriate measures taken to reduce the risk to an acceptable level. The framework is illustrated via 2 case studies. The first is of a typical small office building, and the second is of a prestige office development.

CIVINS / The recent trend of using fine water mist systems to replace the legacy HALON-1301 fire suppression systems warrants further study into other applications of the water mist systems. Preliminary research and investigation indicates that fine mists (20-25 micro droplet size) may reduce peak overpressures of a shock wave traveling through a space. Such pressure reductions could be used to mitigate the destructive effects of a shock wave (initiated by an explosive device) traveling through a structure. Currently these blast mitigation effects have only been demonstrated in small-scale shock tube tests and computer simulations. Uncertainty exists as to the scalability of such a system. The intention of this research is to investigate the applicability of such a blast mitigation system for shipboard use. Study into the degree of mitigation necessary to make a system practical for shipboard installation was conducted. In addition, a theoretical study of the mechanisms of blast mitigation using water mists was completed. / CIVINS

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / This thesis presents a Markov model, which, given an indirect fire weapon system's parameters, yields measures of the weapon's effectiveness in providing fire support to a maneuver element. These parameters may be determined for a variety of different scenarios. Any indirect fire weapon system may be a candidate for evaluation. This model may be used in comparing alternative weapon systems for the role of direct support of a Marine Corps infantry battalion. The issue of light gun vs. heavy gun was the impetus for the study. The thesis also provides insight into the tactic of frequently moving an indirect fire weapon to avoid enemy detection, and possible subsequent attack. / http://archive.org/details/markovmodelforme00guzi / Captain, United States Marine Corps

Master of Science / Division of Biology / David A. Haukos / The lesser prairie-chicken is a prairie grouse native to the southwestern Great Plains that has experienced significant population and habitat declines since European settlement. Ongoing declines prompted the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to list lesser prairie-chickens as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in spring of 2014. In fall of 2015, the listing was vacated on procedural grounds and the lesser prairie-chicken was removed from listing in summer 2016. Despite the legislative change, considerable conservation efforts emerged with the initial listing and have continued following the removal of the species from the threatened and endangered species list. Understanding how lesser prairie-chickens use landscapes and how management actions can influence their space use is important for long-term strategies to meet conservation goals. I modeled lesser prairie-chicken habitat selection relative to landscape mosaics of vegetation patches generated through patch-burn grazing, microclimate, and vegetation characteristics across their range. I captured, attached GPS satellite or VHF radio transmitters to, tracked, and measured vegetation characteristics used by and available to female lesser prairie-chickens across the northern portion of their range in Kansas and Colorado. Female lesser prairie-chickens use all patch types created in a patch-burn grazing mosaic, with female selecting greater time-since-fire patches (>2-years post-fire) for nesting, 2-year post-fire patches during the spring lekking season, 1- and 2-year post-fire patches during the summer brooding period, and 1-year post-fire units during the nonbreeding season. Available vegetation structure and composition in selected patches during each life-cycle stage was similar to the needs of female lesser prairie-chickens during that life-cycle stage. To assess their selected microclimate conditions, I deployed Maxim Integrated Semiconductor data loggers (iButtons) at female flush locations and across a landscape inhabited by lesser prairie-chickens. Females selected locations that minimized thermal stress at microsite, patch, and landscape scales during peak midday temperatures during summer. Females selected midday locations based on vegetation characteristics; where selected sites had >60% forb cover and <25% grass cover, or >75% grass cover and <10% forb cover. In addition, females selected sites with greater visual obstruction. I measured vegetation composition and structure at use and available sites at four study areas located along the precipitation gradient characterizing the full extent of the lesser prairie-chicken range. Vegetation structure use by females varied in relation to long-term precipitation patterns. Females used sites with lower visual obstruction than available during the fall and spring. However, they used vegetation composition that was similar to available within each study area. Overall, my findings indicate that lesser prairie-chickens require structural and compositional heterogeneity to support a suite of habitat needs throughout the year. Therefore, management should focus on providing structural and compositional heterogeneity across landscapes. Greater heterogeneity in vegetation conditions can be achieved through management practices that allow domestic grazers to select grazing locations, such as patch-burn grazing or increased pasture area.

Fire activity, in terms of intensity, frequency, and total area burned, is expected to increase with a changing climate. A challenge for landscape-level assessment of fire effects, often termed burn severity, is that current remote sensing assessments provide very little information regarding tree/vegetation physiological performance and recovery, limiting our understanding of fire effects on ecosystem services such as carbon storage/cycling. In this paper, we evaluated whether spectral indices common in vegetation stress and burn severity assessments could accurately quantify post-fire physiological performance (indicated by net photosynthesis and crown scorch) of two seedling species, Larix occidentalis and Pinus contorta. Seedlings were subjected to increasing fire radiative energy density (FRED) doses through a series of controlled laboratory surface fires. Mortality, physiology, and spectral reflectance were assessed for a month following the fires, and then again at one year post-fire. The differenced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (dNDVI) spectral index outperformed other spectral indices used for vegetation stress and burn severity characterization in regard to leaf net photosynthesis quantification, indicating that landscape-level quantification of tree physiology may be possible. Additionally, the survival of the majority of seedlings in the low and moderate FRED doses indicates that fire-induced mortality is more complex than the currently accepted binary scenario, where trees survive with no impacts below a certain temperature and duration threshold, and mortality occurs above the threshold.

Dry mixed conifer forests of southwestern North America are projected to be particularly vulnerable to ongoing persistent warm drought conditions, and related increases in wildfire frequency, size and severity, due in part to consequences of over a century of fire exclusion. Prescribed fire is applied actively in many landscapes to reduce hazardous fuel loads and continuity, restore forest community composition and structure, and increase tree resilience to drought stress. However, fire can also adversely affect tree growth by damaging cambial, root, and canopy tissues, leading to tradeoffs in the use of fire as a tool for forest resilience. Radial growth is an indicator of climatic and ecological stress and can thus provide a relative measure of resilience to stress and disturbances; but, the mechanisms driving tree resilience to prescribed fire and concurrent drought are poorly understood. Thinning effects of prescribed fire may increase tree resilience to drought by increasing water, light and nutrient availability and production of defense mechanisms. However, trends over the last century indicate warming temperatures are increasing tree sensitivity to fire by reducing post-fire growth (lower resilience) and increasing the likelihood of mortality. Trees can be resistant to fire exposure, and where growth changes occur they can be transient or persistent. We studied the interactions between tree- and stand-level fire effects on the growth responses of surviving Abies concolor, Pinus jefferyi, Pinus ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga menziesii over 24 years of variable climatic conditions in ten National Parks across the western and southwest United States. We used linear mixed effects models to identify mechanisms influencing resistance and resilience responses to fire and interannual climate, using climatic water deficit (CWD) as an index of climatic stress. Compared to pre-fire growth, trees exposed to fire increased growth during periods of greater water deficits. Tree growth responses were variable among and within species and size classes, but contingent on time-since-fire and the climate during the recovery period. Negative fire effects on tree resistance were generally transient, while climate and pre-existing stand conditions were persistent controls on tree resilience. These results suggest that antecedent and subsequent climate conditions modulate post-fire forest response. Consideration of climate variation could improve the strategic use of prescribed fire for tree resilience to drought, and a deeper understanding of factors contributing to prefire growth may elucidate the mechanisms driving post-fire growth responses.

Negotiated settlements, formal treaties to unilateral cease-fires, are often accepted to be the preferable method to end war. When negotiated agreements are used in the normal business of international politics they can be potentially helpful devices; however, when they are relied upon for a nation's security or war prevention and conclusion they can prove disastrous. It is the presence of force variables, and not the formality of an agreement which effectively concludes a war. I recategorize success of an agreement to not only mean failure of a return to war, but also whether the tenets of an agreement are actually followed. I utilize a modified version of Fortna's conflict dataset and run three separate logit analyses to test the effectiveness of settlements in a medium n quantitative analysis. If politicians and policy makers realize that it is not treaties that establish peace but the costs of war and military might then perhaps the world will be a more peaceful place.