This dissertation is a collection of three essays on the monetary and fiscal stabilization policies. Grounded in the framework of the New Keynesian model, they combine both theoretical modeling and quantitative analysis, taking into account the considerations from behavioral macroeconomics and global supply chains. Chapter 1 considers both short-term effects and long-run consequences of alternative monetary and fiscal policies under an assumption of bounded rationality. Most of the existing analyses of the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in the monetary literature often turn crucially on assumptions that are made about outcomes far in the future, sometimes infinitely far. This is a problematic feature of rational-expectations analyses, given the limited basis for assumptions about the distant future. By relaxing this problematic assumption regarding long-expectation, while keeping other parts as close as possible to the standard New Keynesian model, I take the approach of finite forward planning to study the interplay of fiscal transfer policies and monetary policy. In particular, this approach assumes that explicit forward planning extends only a finite distance into the future, with anticipated situations at that horizon evaluated using a value function learned from past experience. Such an approach makes announcements of future policies relevant, but avoids the debates about equilibrium selection that plague rational-expectations analyses. The combined monetary-fiscal regimes that result in stable long-run dynamics are characterized, and the effectiveness of temporary changes in either type of policy as a source of short-run demand stimulus is analyzed. The effectiveness of a coordinated change in monetary and fiscal policy is shown to be greatest when decision makers' degree of foresight is intermediate in range (average planning horizons on the order of ten years), rather than shorter or longer. Chapter 2, co-authored with Michael Woodford, reconsiders several issues connected with stabilization policy, when the zero lower bound (ZLB) is a relevant constraint on the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy, under an assumption of bounded rationality. In particular, it assumes that decision makers only plan a finite distance into the future each time they must act, and use a value function from their past experiences to estimate a continuation value for their situation at the end of the planning horizon. Forward guidance regarding future monetary policy remains relevant, even if its predicted impact is quantitatively weaker, and in particular price-level targeting continues to have advantages over purely forward-looking inflation targeting during a ZLB scenario. Moreover, recognizing that planning horizons may be relatively short for some strengthens the case for systematic price-level targeting, as opposed to temporary price-level targeting only following a ZLB scenario. Fiscal transfers can be a powerful tool to reduce the contractionary impact of an increased financial wedge during a crisis, and even make possible complete stabilization of both aggregate output and inflation under certain circumstances, but the power of such policies depends on the degree of monetary policy accommodation. We also show that a higher level of welfare is generally possible if both monetary and fiscal authorities commit themselves to history-dependent policies in the period after the financial disturbance has dissipated. Chapter 3, co-authored with Shang-Jin Wei, studies the implications of global supply chains for the design of monetary policy, using a small-open economy New Keynesian model with multiple stages of production. Within the family of simple monetary policy rules with commitment, a rule that targets separate producer price inflation at different production stages, in addition to the output gap and real exchange rate, is found to deliver a higher welfare level than alternative policy rules. As an economy becomes more open, measured by the export share, the optimal weight on the upstream inflation rises relative to that on the final stage inflation. If we have to choose among aggregate price indicators, targeting PPI inflation yields a smaller welfare loss than targeting CPI inflation alone. As the production chain becomes longer, the optimal weight on PPI inflation in the policy rule that targets both PPI and CPI inflation will also rise. A trade cost shock such as a rise in the import tariff can alter the optimal weights on different inflation variables.

Asset prices and macroeconomics: towards a unified macro-finance framework Aleš Maršál March 30, 2020 Abstract The dissertation consists of three papers focused on fiscal policy and explaining what determines the dynamics of cross-sectional distribution of bond prices. The connecting factor of the thesis is however not just its main theme but also the used methodology. The valuation of bonds and effects of studied policies are endogenous outcome of the full-fledged macro-finance dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The first chapter provides broader context and non-technical summary of the three papers in following chapters. The first paper studies the role of trend inflation in bond pricing. Motivated by recent empirical findings that emphasize low-frequency movements in inflation as a key determinant of term structure, we introduce trend inflation into the workhorse macro-finance model. We show that this compromises the earlier model success and delivers implausible busi- ness cycle and bond price dynamics. We document that this result applies more generally to non-linearly solved models with Calvo pricing and trend inflation and is driven by the behavior of price dispersion, which is i) counterfactually high and ii) highly inaccurately approximated. We highlight the channels be- hind the undesired performance...

The primary objective of this thesis is to develop a methodology for applying econometric models to problems of economic policy, and to illustrate it in terms of fiscal policy by applying it to problems of economic stabilization in Canada during the period 1967-69. It was assumed that the fiscal policy-maker in Canada has a preference (loss) function which is a weighted sum of squared deviations between the actual and the desired values of two target variables (changes in the GNE price deflator and the number of persons unemployed) and three instruments (changes in government expenditure on goods and services, and the personal and corporation income tax rates). Then, an intermediate sized annual econometric model of the Canadian economy was developed, subject to which the preference function was minimized. Since the parameters of the preference function were not given, thirty-six experiments of optimization were made under a range of plausible values of the relevant parameters. It was found that the numerical values of the target variables indicated by the optimal strategy were closer to the desired values and more stable in their movements than actual values. Also the results of various experiments suggested that the optimal strategy was relatively insensitive to changes in parameter values over a rather wide range. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

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No / This chapter reviews the substantive issue of the contemporary intertwining of both national and overall EU economy in relation to the spectre of monetary union through first evaluating a country’s readiness for euro entry through a comparison between the convergence criteria stipulated in the Treaty on European Union and the theory of optimal currency areas, which leads to discussion of the economic costs and benefits of euro membership. However, given the unprecedented strain eurozone has now come under the also chapter examines the background to the current eurozone crisis; specifically, how the Global Financial Crisis induced Great Recession triggered the problems within the eurozone. Subsequently, the chapter explores how the advent of EMU has significantly redefined the operation of fiscal and monetary policy with the former retained by member states, but proscribed by EMU-wide rules, whilst the latter has been assumed by a specifically created independent central bank. Hence, the chapter explores the theoretical underpinnings of the operation of monetary and fiscal policy within EMU, where it examines the conduct, coordination and philosophy of macroeconomic policymaking. This analysis is then extended by discussing a series of potential remedies, consisting of an evaluation of EU instigated solutions, together with a series of alternative propositions. However, whilst the economic remedies to the eurozone crisis may eventually succeed, the greater long-term damage may well emerge through the political sphere with the imposition of unelected technocrat governments, together with growing dissatisfaction of mainstream political parties with support for either the far-right, protest parties, anti-euro parties, anti-EU parties, or member states losing confidence in the direction of ‘ever closer union’.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Steven P. Cassou / This dissertation consists of three essays on modeling the behavior of both fiscal and monetary policy by allowing for asymmetry in preferences of the policy authorities. Whether the responses of fiscal or monetary policy to the business cycle conditions are symmetric or asymmetric is still an unresolved question. The idea behind asymmetric behavior is that policy makers take stronger action during times of distress than during ordinary times. The following chapters investigate this question empirically using data for the United States and show that policy makers do behave asymmetrically. Chapter 1 investigates whether the asymmetric monetary policy preferences for the output gap as shown in Surico (2007) disappeared during the post-Volcker period spanning 1982:04- 2003:02. The results show Surico’s conclusion to be fragile as moving the starting period for the estimation a few quarters forward shows strong asymmetric policy behavior. Chapter 2 investigates U.S. fiscal policy sustainability and cyclicality in empirical structures that allow fiscal policy responses to exhibit asymmetric behavior. Two quarterly intervals of data are investigated, both of which begin in 1955. The short sample was chosen for comparison to Bohn (1998), while the full sample uses all available data. The results for a short sample that ends in the second quarter of 1995 show some differences from the results for the full sample that includes the financial crisis and the Great Recession. For the full sample, U.S. fiscal policy is asymmetrical in regard to both sustainability and cyclicality. Regarding fiscal policy sustainability, the best fitting models show evidence of fiscal policy sustainability for the short sample. However, the fiscal sustainability question does become less clear for the full sample. Regarding fiscal policy cyclicality, we find during times of distress, policy is strongly countercyclical, but during good times the results are mixed. Chapter 3 investigates the source of asymmetry in reaction of U.S. fiscal policy to business cycle conditions, as shown in chapter 2. By decomposing the fiscal policy variable into the tax revenues and the expenditures, we show that both series exhibit asymmetry in a way which is analogous to the results found in chapter 2.

O presente trabalho tem o objetivo de primariamente estudar o impacto da política fiscal brasileira sobre a atividade econômica via multiplicadores fiscais desagregados e secundariamente verificar se o comportamento da política fiscal é anticíclico, acíclico ou pró-cíclico. Para tanto, estima com técnicas bayesianas um modelo DSGE com um rico arcabouço de instrumentos fiscais de gastos e tributos desagregados em consumo público, investimento público, transferências e alíquotas tributárias sobre o consumo, a renda do trabalho e a renda do capital. Em especial, usa duas bases de dados distintas de alíquotas efetivas, que são os dados tributários que representam o mais fidedignamente possível as alíquotas do modelo e que ainda não foram utilizadas na literatura nacional. Os resultados mostram que, em todos os horizontes de tempo, o multiplicador do investimento público é o maior, enquanto o das transferências é o menor, e que a política fiscal brasileira é, em geral, pró-cíclica, contribuindo para amplificar o ciclo econômico. Assim, os multiplicadores indicam que, sob a perspectiva da preservação da atividade econômica, um ajuste fiscal deveria evitar cortes de investimento público, bem como dão respaldo à interpretação de que a diminuição da eficácia da política fiscal em 2010-11 se deveu à perda de espaço do investimento público na composição relativa dos estímulos fiscais. Um dos exercícios de sensibilidade revela que os multiplicadores fiscais são maiores quando a política fiscal é pró-cíclica, lançando luz sobre a questão não explorada na literatura do efeito do comportamento fiscal (anticíclico, acíclico ou pró-cíclico) sobre os multiplicadores fiscais e indicando que os estudos de economias caracterizadas por políticas fiscais pró-cíclicas, como a brasileira, que não levam em conta esse comportamento fiscal tendem a subestimar os multiplicadores. Ademais, o modelo evidencia quais são os instrumentos fiscais que mais ajudam a estabilizar a dívida pública e como o comportamento pró-cíclico magnifica os efeitos da política fiscal brasileira às expensas de uma dívida pública crescente, que posteriormente para ser estabilizada exige um arrocho fiscal duradouro que afeta negativamente o produto. Também revela que os choques fiscais são responsáveis por explicar uma parcela relevante da variação do crescimento do produto, razão superávit primário-produto e razão dívida pública-produto. / The present work aims to primarily study the Brazilian fiscal policy impact on the economic activity via disaggregated fiscal multipliers and secondarily verify if the fiscal policy behavior is anticyclical, acyclical or procyclical. To do so, it estimates with Bayesian techniques a DSGE model with a rich fiscal toolkit of expenditures and taxes disaggregated into public consumption, public investment, transfers and tax rates on consumption, labor income and capital income. Specially, it uses two different databases of effective tax rates, which are the tax data that represent the model\'s tax rates in the most reliable way and have not yet been used in the national literature. The results show that, in all the time horizons, the public investment multiplier is the greatest, while the transfers one is the smallest, and that the Brazilian fiscal policy is, in general, procyclical, contributing to amplify the business cycle. Thus, the multipliers indicate that, from the perspective of the economic activity preservation, a fiscal adjustment should avoid cuts in public investment, as well as support the interpretation that the fiscal policy efficacy decrease in 2010-11 was due to the public investment loss of space in the relative composition of the fiscal stimuli. One of the sensibility exercises reveal that the fiscal multipliers are higher when the fiscal policy is procyclical, shedding light on the question not explored in the literature of the effect of the fiscal behavior (anticyclical, acyclical or procyclical) on the fiscal multipliers and pointing out that studies about economies characterized by procyclical fiscal policies, like the Brazilian one, that do not take into account this fiscal behavior tend to underestimate the multipliers. Furthermore, the model highlights which are the fiscal instruments that help the most to stabilize the public debt and how the procyclical behavior magnifies the effects of the Brazilian fiscal policy at the expense of a rising public debt, which later to be stabilized requires an enduring fiscal tightening which affects negatively the output. It also reveals that the fiscal shocks are responsible for explaining a relevant fraction of the variability in the output growth, primary surplus-output ratio and public debt-output ratio.