This dissertation consists of three essays that collectively investigate the relationship between exports, macroeconomic policy and economic growth. The first essay investigates the relationship between disaggregated exports and growthto address why many developing countries rely on primary goods as their main source of export income when evidence suggests they could earn higher returns by exporting manufactured goods.Using regression tree analysis, I find that although increasing manufacturing exports is important for sustained economic growth, this relationship only holds once a threshold level of development is reached. The results imply that a country needs a minimum level of education before it is beneficial to transition from a reliance on primary exports to manufacturing exports. Thesecond essay explores the impact of fiscal episodes on the extensive and intensive margins of exports for a sample of OECD countries. In general, a fiscal stimulus in an exporting country is associated with a substantial decrease in each margin. However, a fiscal consolidation in an exporting country is associated with a large increase in the extensive margin, yielding a positive net effect on total exports. This positive effect of a consolidation disappears when an importing country simultaneously experiences a fiscal episode. Overall, the effect of fiscal episodes on total exports and the export margins yield important ramifications for policy-makers. The third essay takes a broad perspective in characterizing the relationship between disaggregated exports, macroeconomic policy, and economic growth. Few studies consider that macroeconomic policy may influence growth, at least partly, through the export channel and none consider that this impact may differ for primary and manufacturing exports. I first explore the determinants of disaggregated exports to empirically test whether macroeconomic policy influences the size of the export sector in a country. Second, I use simultaneous equations methods to identify the impact of macroeconomic policy and exports on economic growth. Indeed, there appears to be some evidence that macroeconomic policy may affect the level of exports. Moreover, exports appear to exert an influence on growth, but the role of macroeconomic policy in the growth process seems to be only through its influence on other variables.

Šiame darbe nagrinėjama vyriausybės vykdomos fiskalinės politikos įtaką visuminei paklausai Lietuvoje. Darbe yra apžvelgiama vyriausybės vartojimo išlaidų bei visuminės paklausos komponentų pokyčiai nuo 1995 iki 2007 metų. Teorinėje dalyje aptariamos pagrindinės Keinsistinės teorijos, kurios nagrinėja fiskalinės politikos įtaką visuminei paklausai, naudojant IS-LM ir AD-AS modelius. Taip pat teorinėje dalyje yra parodoma biudžeto deficito mažinimo įtaka ekonomikai. Darbe atliekama regresinė analizė, kuri įrodo, kad egzistuoja statistiškai reišmingas ryšys tarp visuminės paklausos ir valdžios sektoriaus vartojimo išlaidų. Pabaigoje pateikiamos rekomendacijos, kaip sustiprinti biudžeto išlaidų poveikį visuminei paklausai. / In this thesis the relationship between fiscal policy and aggregate demand in Lithuania is investigated. The first part of the work shows changes of government consumption expenditure and components of aggregate demand in period 1995 - 2007. The theoretical part analyses the main Keynesian ideas which research relationship between aggregate demand and fiscal policy, using IS-LM and AD-AS models. Also theoretical part shows how the reduction of budged deficit influences interest rates, aggregate demand, prices. In the last part aggregate demand is regressed against government consumption expenditure, interest rates, inflation and income. Results suggest that there are statistically significant relationship between aggregate demand and government consumption expenditure. Finally some recommendations are made in the end of the work.

Izgorodin, A, valstybės fiskalinė politika Lietuvos einamosios sąskaitos deficitui sumažinti: bakalauro baigiamasis darbas: ekonomika. Vilnius, ISM Vadybos ir ekonomikos universitetas, 2009. Šio darbo tikslas yra pasiūlyti fiskalinės politikos priemones Lietuvos ESD sumažinti. Darbe siekiama išanalizuoti Lietuvos einamosios sąskaitos komponentų kitimą laikui bėgant, nustatyti, ar ESD Lietuvai yra problematiškas, atlikti regresinę analizę ir išsiaiškinti, kaip pasirinkti kintamieji įtakoja einamosios sąskaitos balansą. Darbo gale pasiūlomi konkrečių mokesčių dydžiai ir valstybės išlaidų kryptis, kurie padės pagerinti Lietuvos einamosios sąskaitos balansą. Gauti rezultatai parodo, kad Lietuvos ESD didėjo dėl kelių priežasčių. Lietuvos ESD turėjo įtakos įstojimas į ES ir prasidėjęs vadinamasis „pasivijimo“ laikotarpis, kuris iš pradžių turėjo neigiamos įtakos ekonomikos dalyvių taupymo normai ir veiksniai, kilę šalies viduje, pvz. perdėtas ekonomikos dalyvių optimizmas, sparčiai augantis darbo užmokestis, mažėjantis nedarbas, pigios ir lengvai prieinamos paskolos, neefektyvios vietinės ir tiesioginės užsienio investicijos, (kurios buvo nukreiptos į pajėgumų didinimą, vartojimo didinimą ir kitų trumpalaikių ekonominių problemų sprendimui vietoj to, kad paspartintų pramonės vystymąsi ir padidintų šalies eksporto konkurencingumą), didelė infliacija ir kt. Minėtos priežastys skatino importą ir ribotojo eksporto augimą, o didelis šalies patrauklumas užsienio investuotojų akyse tik... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Izgorodin, A. Government's Fiscal Policy Measures to Reduce Current Account Deficit in Lithuania: bachelor thesis, Economics. Vilnius, ISM University of Management and Economics, 2009. The goal of this work is to suggest the fiscal measures that the government can use in order to reduce the Lithuanian current account deficit (CAD). In this work I analyze how different components of Lithuanian current account have performed in time. In addition to this, I will determine, whether Lithuanian CAD is problematic and dangerous for the country. Moreover, I will perform regression analysis in order to find out how different variables have affected the current account balance of the country. Lastly, I will suggest tax rates and the direction of government spending that should be used in order to reduce the CAD in Lithuania. Results show that Lithuanian CAD is a consequence of several factors. Firstly, one of the causes of CAD in Lithuania is the so-called catch-up period which started after Lithuania has joined the EU. At first the catch-up process had a negative effect on the current account balance through low savings rate. In addition to this, factors inside the country have also contributed to CAD. The factors, among others, include over optimism of business and consumers, increasing salaries, decreasing unemployment, cheap and easily accessible loans, inefficient investments both within the country and from abroad (FDI), which were largely directed towards increasing of the... [to full text]

This study attempted to examine the nature of the relationship between high levels of external debt and capital accumulation with the case study of Rwanda.

This paper investigates the relationship between countries' fiscal balances and current accounts with an emphasis on the role of fiscal rules. The direct effect of fiscal policy on the current account via aggregate (import) demand is potentially amplified by indirect effects, materializing through interest rate effects and inter-generational transfers that reduce savings. On the other hand, the implied positive relation between fiscal and external balances is potentially attenuated by offsetting changes in savings through Ricardian equivalence considerations. We expect this attenuation effect to be stronger in countries with more stringent fiscal rules and test this hypothesis using a panel of 73 countries over the period 1985-2012. As previous studies we find a positive effect of fiscal balances on the current account, supporting the twin deficit hypothesis. However, the effect of fiscal balances on the current account depends on the stringency of fiscal (budget balance or debt) rules in place; it is reduced by one third on average and virtually eliminated for countries with the most stringent fiscal rules. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

D.Comm. / This thesis endeavoured to assess whether the government can simultaneously achieve the objectives of sustained economic growth, income redistribution and fiscal discipline, as stated in the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) policy. The simultaneous realisation of these objectives of the GEAR policy brings about controversies between the South African government and other interest groups, such as the trade unions and some academics. Empirical analysis such as econometrics and computerised general equilibrium (hereafter referred to as CGE) techniques were used in an attempt to solve the research question. The Kalman filter technique was applied to model total factor productivity and to establish the link between social services expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. The structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) technique was applied to assess the dynamics of fiscal shocks on output growth and determine the type of taxes that are distortionary in financing the increase in social services expenditure. The study’s main contribution is the application of the CGE technique to assess whether the above three objectives can be reached simultaneously. A new CGE model was built, based on the standard CGE model by Thurlow and Van Seventer (2002). In the new CGE model, some taxes were changed to endogenous variables instead of exogenous variables or parameters as in the standard model. The model introduced a number of government macro closure rules to clear the government balance. The research lead to the following conclusion: When constraints on employment are removed across all the labour categories in South Africa, and the government uses compositional shift of its expenditure to finance the continual increase in social services expenditure, the three objectives, namely fair redistribution of iv income, fiscal discipline and sustained economic growth, will be reached simultaneously. It is recommended that the government fix conditions in the labour market to remove impediments to employment in South Africa (such as lack of appropriate skills for specific activities), as this will enable the government to achieve most of its objectives.

This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of the relation between the cyclicality of fiscal expenditure policy, output volatility, and economic growth, using a large cross-section of 88 countries over the period 1960 to 2004. Identification of the effects of (endogenous) cyclical expenditure policy is achieved by exploiting the exogeneity of countries political and institutional characteristics, which we find to be relevant determinants of the cyclicality of expenditures. There are three main results: First, both pro- and countercyclical expenditure policy amplify output volatility, much in a way like pure fiscal shocks that are unrelated to the cycle. Second, output volatility, due to variations in cyclical and discretionary fiscal policy, is negatively associated with economic growth. Third, there is no direct effect of cyclicality on economic growth other than through output volatility. These findings advocate the introduction of fiscal rules that limit the use of (discretionary and) cyclical fiscal (expenditure) policy to improve growth performance by reducing volatility. (author's abstract)

in English In my diploma thesis I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to describe economic inequality. The model combines two approaches that were traditionally used to model inequality - first, it features two classes of agents that differ in their ownership of capital and second, each class consists of heterogeneous agents who are subject to uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks. This combination allows the two classes to behave in a fundamentally different way while maintaining the individual character of agents in the economy - a feature that has not been modeled before but which adequately describes the empirical reality. I show that the model with classical RBC structure and a single wage underestimates the observed inequality. When the wage differential is introduced through different taxation of the two classes, the model matches empirical inequality much better. Further I argue that the government can significantly reduce inequality at a relatively small cost in terms of output lost. Finally using Theil coefficient decomposition, I show how much of the total inequality is attributable to between-class and within-class inequalities.

Si la définition de la contrainte budgétaire publique ne semble pas l’objet de controverse, ce qui constitue l’objet de recherche de cette thèse est la vitesse à laquelle les États décident de respecter cette contrainte. L’hypothèse est que la vitesse d’ajustement est déterminante dans l’évaluation globale de la politique budgétaire comme instrument contracyclique. Plus précisément, on cherche à répondre à trois questions : (i) historiquement, à quelle vitesse les États ont-ils résorbé leurs déséquilibres budgétaires ? (ii) quels sont les effets des différentes relances budgétaires selon la vitesse des ajustements et leur composition ? (iii) en quoi la durée d’une politique monétaire accommodante influence-t-elle les résultats précédents ? Le chapitre 1 montre que la critique des tests économétriques de soutenabilité n’est pas insurmontable. On cherche à caractériser le degré de persistance des déséquilibres budgétaires selon une approche fractionnaire, qui permet de classer les pays selon les fonctions de réaction de leurs autorités budgétaires. Le chapitre 2 propose d’évaluer, à l’aide d’un modèle d’équilibre général, les effets des ajustements après une relance. Quel que soit l’instrument budgétaire privilégié pour la relance, une accélération de l’ajustement entraîne un effet négatif sur la production à moyen terme. Le chapitre 3 évalue le policy mix en fonction du timing des ajustements budgétaires après la relance, par rapport à la durée de la période de taux d’intérêt nuls. Un régime instable de consolidation excessive apparaît lorsque la volonté d’ajustement budgétaire est très forte, quel que soit le comportement de la banque centrale à l’égard de l’inflation. / There is no controversy on the definition of public budget constraint. However, there is much debate on the speed of fiscal adjustment through which governments decide to satisfy their budget constraint : this is the topic of this PhD thesis. The main assumption is that the speed of adjustment is critical in the comprehensive assessment of the fiscal policy. More specifically, I answer to the following three questions: (i) historically, how fast was the resorption of governments’ fiscal imbalances? (ii) What are the effects of different fiscal stimulus given the speed and the composition of the adjustment? (iii) How the length of an accommodative monetary policy affects the answers of the above questions? The first chapter shows that the weaknesses of econometric tests of sustainability can be overcome. I characterize the degree of persistence in fiscal imbalances by using fractional econometrics. This methodology allows to classify countries according to the reaction functions of their fiscal authorities. The chapter two assesses, through a general equilibrium model, the effects of adjustments after an expansive fiscal policy. I show that, whatever the preferred instrument for fiscal stimulus, an acceleration in the speed of adjustment has a negative effect on production in the medium term. Given that the nominal interest rate reached its lower bound, the chapter three assesses, in this context, a policy mix based on the timing of adjustments after the fiscal stimulus. An unstable regime of excessive consolidation occurs when the fiscal adjustment is strong regardless of the behavior of the central bank towards inflation.

M.Com. (Economics) / The primary purpose of this study is a theoretical analysis of the allocation of the primary functions of the authority, with specific reference to the distribution function in a system of fiscal federalism in South Africa. An effort is made to find an answer to the question: On what level of government should the various functions of authorities and, in particular, the distribution function, be executed? South Africa is on the threshold of a new democratic system with an interim constitutional dispensation and for this reason, existing views concerning the distribution function in South Africa were also briefly investigated. The method of research comprised a literature study. In chapter two the rationale for government functions I in other words, the allocation, distribution and stabilisation functions, are theoretically analysed. The analysis also defines the nature of collective goods and services. This definition is essential because it has to serve as a point of departure in the discussion of the spatial dimension of government functions. Since the distribution function represents the central theme of the study, this function is discussed in more detail than other functions. It appears that there are different approaches to the distribution function and that it can be implemented in numerous ways. The approaches can be classified into two theories: Firstly, there is the theory which advocates equity in the execution of the distribution function. This view requires the centralisation of authority in a system of fiscal federalism. The second theory is in favour of the promotion of decentralisation of authority on the basis of economic efficiency. In chapter three the spatial aspects of government functions are concentrated upon more specifically. The spatial aspects of the allocation function indicate that economic efficiency is promoted by effective decentralisation so that autonomous sub-authorities can accept responsibility for the provision of collective goods and services with limited geographical advantage. According to this, the national government will only be responsible for services which have a national tenor, such as defence and foreign affairs. An analysis of the stabilisation function indicates that subnational authorities cannot apply stabilisation management in an effective manner. There is considerably less consensus about the allocation of the distribution function. Various reasons exist as to why the distribution function should be vested in the central authority. The possible mobility of individuals, the necessity for the establishment of minimum standards of service and the desirability of central control over fiscal resources are the primary motivation for the execution of the distribution function to be vested in the central authority.