The foot and mouth disease is an acute, very contagious virus disease of even-toed ungulates (cattle, Wheel, pigs). The primary source of the infection is an ill animal, a secondary source are all the subject contaminated by the originator of the illness. Also people often pass the illness (on their shoes and also clothes). At present, the foot and mouth disease in Great Britain is mentioned at most; however, the epi-centers of the contagion of this illness may be found in many other places all around the world. Although the last occurrence of the foot and mouth disease was recorded in 1975 in the Czech Republic, the real risk of spreading this infection in our territory exists also at present. The people get infected with foot and mouth disease may very seldom. Also the most animals are able to survive this disease; in spite of this fact, spreading the infection in the breeding causes immense economic loss. For this reason, many countries consider necessary to fight against the infection by all the possible means. First of all the prevention and preparation of various plans and preparation of experts is accentuated. In case of any suspicion concerning the foot and mouth disease it is necessary to take the necessary measures. Only thanks to a thorough preparation and correct observation of all the measures it is possible to fight effectively with this dangerous infection, although at the expense of lives of many animals.

Orientador: Laercio Carvalho de Barros. / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matematica, Estatistica e Computação Cientifica. / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-12T00:22:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Missio_Maristela_D.pdf: 2748963 bytes, checksum: f8fcd60a906d00c35ee8f90f26919908 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008 / Resumo: A febre aftosa é uma patologia viral, infecto-contagiosa, caracterizada por um cenário repleto de incertezas que lhe são inerentes, resultantes da influência de fatores socioeconômicos e ambientais relacionados ao processo de transmissão, que pode ocorrer por via direta e indireta. Em epidemiologia, grande parte das incertezas são tratadas ou pela Teoria das Probabilidades ou pela Teoria de Conjuntos Fuzzy, a depender da natureza, seja ela oriunda da aleatoriedade ou de verdade parcial. O uso integrado de modelos clássicos, particularmente as Equações Diferenciais Parciais (EDP), modelos fuzzy e probabilísticos no tratamento das duas classes de incertezas ainda é muito incipiente. Com a intenção de contribuir para o aumento dos estudos nessa área, propõe-se um modelo integrado, envolvendo EDP, lógica fuzzy e métodos probabilísticos, a fim de estudar a dinâmica espacial e temporal de fenômenos epidemiológicos, cujas incertezas são importantes para sua evolução. Para tanto, tomou-se como objeto de estudo a febre aftosa em bovinos e elaborou-se um modelo SIR envolvendo EDP para estudar sua evolução espaço-temporal com parâmetros de difusão e transmissão incertos. Esses foram estimados fazendo-se uso de Sistemas Baseados em Regras Fuzzy (SBRF). As variáveis lingüísticas utilizadas nos SBRF apresentaram incertezas de natureza aleatória, as quais foram tratadas por modelos estocásticos. Na implementação computacional, fez-se o acoplamento dos métodos de elementos finitos para a discretização espacial, e Cranck-Nicolson para a temporal, toolbox fuzzy para os modelos fuzzy e Monte Carlo para os modelos estocásticos, todos em um mesmo algoritmo, construído nos ambientes Matlab e Fortran. / Abstract: The foot-and-mouth disease is a viral, infectum contagious pathology, characterized for a scene full of inherent uncertainties, resultants of the influence of social, economic and environmental factors related to the transmission process, that can occur for direct and indirect means. In Epidemiology, great part of the uncertainties are treated either by the Theory of Probabilities or by Fuzzy Logic Theory, depending on the nature, in accordance with the type of uncertainty which can be either deriving of the randomness or coming from the subjectivity. The integrated use of models involving Partial Differential Equations (PDE), Fuzzy Theory and Probabilistic in the treatment of the two categories of uncertainties, simultaneously, is still very incipient. Aiming to contribute to the growth of existing studies in this area, we propose an integrated model, involving PDE Models, Fuzzy Models and Stochastic Models, in order to study the space and secular dynamics of these epidemiological phenomena, whose uncertainties are important for their evolution. To do so, the foot-and-mouth disease in bovines was taken overcome as our study's object and we elaborated a SIR model involving EDP to study its space-weather evolution with uncertain parameters of diffusion and transmission. Due the uncertainties these parameters had been estimated using Rule-Based Fuzzy Systems (RBFS). The linguistic variables of the RBFSs presented uncertainties of random nature, which were treated by random models. For computational results, we coupling several models, using the method of finite elements for the space discretization and Cranck-Nicolson for time discretization, toolbox fuzzy for Fuzzy Models and Mount Carlo for Random Models, all in the same algorithm constructed in the environments Matlab and Fortran. / Doutorado / Matematica Aplicada / Doutor em Matemática Aplicada

La maladie pied-main-bouche (PMB) et l’herpangine sont deux maladies pédiatriques bénignes causées par les entérovirus (EV), en particulier les sérotypes de l’espèce A (EV-A). Le sérotype EV-A71 fait l’objet d’une surveillance dans les pays du Sud Est de l’Asie car il est associé à des atteintes neurologiques sévères chez les très jeunes enfants, parfois mortelles (défaillance cardio-pulmonaire). Les infections causées par les autres EV-A tel que le coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) provoquent rarement des atteintes sévères. En Europe, les cas de maladie PMB causés par l’EV-A71 ne font pas l’objet d’une déclaration obligatoire, car ce virus ne cause pas d’épidémies de grande ampleur. L’objectif général de la thèse était d’étudier l’épidémiologie des EV-A en Europe et nous avons utilisé une approche phylogénétique bayésienne pour analyser un échantillon de 500 souches. Nous montrons la circulation discontinue de l’EV-A71 de deux populations virales principales (sous génogroupes C1 et C2), ce qui explique la rareté des épidémies en Europe. L’épidémiologie de ce virus est aussi caractérisée par des transports de souches entre les pays Européens et sporadiquement entre l’Europe et l’Asie (sous génogroupes B5 et C4). La recombinaison génétique intertypique survient rarement parmi les populations d’EV-A71 en circulation et ne contribue pas significativement à leur diversité génétique. Cependant, ce mécanisme génétique est relié à l’émergence d’un sous génogroupe CV-A16 qui circule en France depuis 2011. Comparés à l’EV-A71, les sérotypes CV-A2, CV-A4, CV-A6 sont plus fréquemment sujets à des événements de recombinaison intertypiques. L’analyse de la sélection à l’échelle moléculaire indique que la fixation des mutations dans les protéines de capside de l’EV-A71 est lente, probablement à cause des contraintes structurales et fonctionnelles. La surveillance des infections à EV-A71 en Europe devrait être renforcée à cause de la neurovirulence de ce virus, de l’introduction récente et répétée de souches variantes « asiatiques » et de l’existence d’une grande diversité de génogroupes en Afrique et en Inde encore peu explorée. / Hand-Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) and Herpangina are two benign pediatric diseases caused by Enteroviruses (EV), especially enterovirus A species serotypes (EV-A). Infections caused by the EV-A71 serotype are monitored in countries of South East Asia because they are associated with severe neurological symptoms in young children and may be fatal (cardiopulmonary failure). Infections caused by the other EV-A serotypes, e.g. coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16), rarely induce severe symptoms. In Europe, EV-A71 HFMD cases are not notifiable because this virus does not cause large-scale epidemics. The overall objective of this thesis was to study the EV-A epidemiology in Europe and we used a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to analyze 500 viral strains. We show a discontinued circulation of two EV-A71 populations (C1 and C2 subgenogroups), which explains the rare outbreaks in Europe. The epidemiology of this virus is characterized by transportation events of viral strains between European countries and sporadically between Europe and Asia (C4 and B5 subgenogroups). Intertypic genetic recombination occur rarely among circulating EV-A71 populations and does not contribute significantly to their genetic diversity. We found that genetic mechanism was related to the emergence of a new CV-A16 subgenogroup, which is circulating in France since 2011. In comparison with EV-A71, a number of serotypes (CV-A2, CV-A4, and CV-A6) are more frequently involved in intertypic recombination events. The structural and functional constraints are possible factors involved in the slow mutation fixation in the EV-A71 capsid proteins as determined by analyses of molecular selection. Neurovirulence, the recent and repeated introductions of variants “Asian” strains, and the diversity of genogroups in Africa and India call for strengthened surveillance of EV-A71 infections among European countries.