<p>Digital Mechanics is a company in Västerås manufacturing mainlyprototypes for it customers. To do this they use a number of free formingmachines. The building time of these machines differ very much from theestimated time required to build a job and this effects the efficiency of theproduction. The work presented in this paper is mainly about designing andconstructing a monitoring application for the machines at DigitalMechanics. The application will be used for alerting the operators when amachine is not building and preempt machines stopping because they runout of material to increase quality and efficiency in the production. Thesystem may also be used as the core of a future, more advanced, monitoringsystem.The thesis also included a study about how the estimation of the timerequired by the machines to build a job could be enhanced.Because of the nature of the business at Digital Mechanics theimprovement of quality and efficiency deriving from this monitoringapplication is difficult to measure, but the machine operators claim they areassisted by it.</p>

Digital Mechanics is a company in Västerås manufacturing mainlyprototypes for it customers. To do this they use a number of free formingmachines. The building time of these machines differ very much from theestimated time required to build a job and this effects the efficiency of theproduction. The work presented in this paper is mainly about designing andconstructing a monitoring application for the machines at DigitalMechanics. The application will be used for alerting the operators when amachine is not building and preempt machines stopping because they runout of material to increase quality and efficiency in the production. Thesystem may also be used as the core of a future, more advanced, monitoringsystem.The thesis also included a study about how the estimation of the timerequired by the machines to build a job could be enhanced.Because of the nature of the business at Digital Mechanics theimprovement of quality and efficiency deriving from this monitoringapplication is difficult to measure, but the machine operators claim they areassisted by it.

Accurate information about tree volume in tropical vegetation formations is critical for the identification of potential areas for sustainable timber production, carbon estimation and biodiversity conservation. Difficult access and the cost of obtaining a large number of samples needed for accurate wood volume and biomass determination are often barriers for carrying out inventories and studies in natural forests in Brazil. Therefore, the development of more efficient techniques of mensuration in tropical forests is an important mechanism for conservation, management and production advancement. The main purposes of this thesis are: introducing a new method for quantifying vertical and horizontal structures by using principal component analysis (PCA); developing two different approaches of volume modeling, one based on DBH and another based on crown area; proposing a new taper equation for native vegetation in three different formations; and estimating upper section diameters to become the geometric form method useful in natural vegetation in Brazil and reducing dependence on destructive measurements. / Informações corretas sobre o volume de árvores em formações de vegetação natural são fundamentais para a identificação de áreas potenciais para produção madeireira sustentável, estimativa de carbono e conservação da biodiversidade. Dificuldade de acesso e altos custos na obtenção de amostras necessárias para estimativas precisas de volume e biomassa são barreiras frequentes na condução de inventários e estudos florestais no Brasil. Dessa forma, o desenvolvimento de técnicas mais eficientes de mensuração em florestas tropicais é um importante mecanismo para o avanço da conservação, manejo e produção. Os principais objetivos deste trabalho foram: introduzir um novo método de quantificação das estruturas vertical e horizontal por meio do uso de análise de componentes principais (ACP); desenvolver modelos volumétricos baseados em DAP e modelos baseados em área de copa; propor uma nova função de afilamento aplicada a três diferentes formações vegetais; e estimar alturas em que deverão ter diâmetros medidos ao longo da árvore para tornar o método geométrico útil em formações naturais no Brasil, e reduzindo a necessidade de mensurações que requerem o abatimento das árvores.

Erkenntnisse aus paläoklimatologischen Studien, theoretischen Betrachtungen und Modellsimulationen deuten darauf hin, dass anthropogene Emissionen von Treibhausgasen und Aerosolen zu großskaligen, singulären Klimaereignissen führen könnten. Diese bezeichnen stark nichtlineare, abrupte Klimaänderungen, mit regionalen bis hin zu globalen Auswirkungen. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Entwicklung von Modellen zweier maßgeblicher Komponenten des Klimasystems, die singuläres Verhalten aufweisen könnten: die atlantische thermohaline Zirkulation (THC) und der indische Monsun. Diese Modelle sind so konzipiert, dass sie den Anforderungen der "Integrated Assessment"-Modellierung genügen, d.h., sie sind realistisch, recheneffizient, transparent und flexibel. <br /> <br /> Das THC-Modell ist ein einfaches, interhemisphärisches Boxmodell, das anhand von Daten kalibriert wird, die mit einem gekoppelten Klimamodell mittlerer Komplexität erzeugt wurden. Das Modell wird durch die globale Mitteltemperatur angetrieben, die mit Hilfe eines linearen Downscaling-Verfahrens in regionale Wärme- und Süßwasserflüsse übersetzt wird. Die Ergebnisse einer Vielzahl von zeitabhängigen Simulationen zeigen, dass das Modell in der Lage ist, maßgebliche Eigenschaften des Verhaltens komplexer Klimamodelle wiederzugeben, wie die Sensitivität bezüglich des Ausmaßes, der regionalen Verteilung und der Rate der Klimaänderung. <br /> <br /> Der indische Monsun wird anhand eines neuartigen eindimensionalen Boxmodells der tropischen Atmosphäre beschrieben. Dieses enthält Parmetrisierungen der Oberflächen- und Strahlungsflüsse, des hydrologischen Kreislaufs und derHydrologie der Landoberfläche. Trotz des hohen Idealisierungsgrades ist das Modell in der Lage, relevante Aspekte der beobachteten Monsundynamik, wie z.B. den Jahresgang des Niederschlags und das Eintritts- sowie Rückzugsdatum des Sommermonsuns, zufrieden stellend zu simulieren. Außerdem erfasst das Modell die Sensitivitätdes Monsuns bezüglich Änderungen der Treibhausgas- und Aerosolkonzentrationen, die aus komplexeren Modellen bekannt sind. <br /> <br /> Eine vereinfachte Version des Monsunmodells wird für die Untersuchung des qualitativen Systemverhaltens in Abhängigkeit von Änderungen der Randbedingungen eingesetzt. Das bemerkenswerteste Ergebnis ist das Auftreten einer Sattelknotenbifurkation des Sommermonsuns für kritische Werte der Albedo oder der Sonneneinstrahlung. Darüber hinaus weist das Modell zwei stabile Zustände auf: neben dem niederschlagsreichen Sommermonsun besteht ein Zustand, der sich durch einen schwachen hydrologischen Kreislauf auszeichnet. Das Beachtliche an diesen Ergebnissen ist, dass anthropogene Störungen der plantetaren Albedo, wie Schwefelemissionen und/oder Landnutzungsänderungen, zu einer Destabilisierung des indischen Monsuns führen könnten. <br /> <br /> Das THC-Boxmodell findet exemplarische Anwendung in einem "Integrated Assessment" von Klimaschutzstrategien. Basierend auf dem konzeptionellen und methodischen Gerüst des Leitplankenansatzes werden Emissionskorridore (d.h. zulässige Spannen an CO2-Emissionen) berechnet, die das Risiko eines THC-Zusammenbruchs begrenzen sowie sozioökonomische Randbedingungen berücksichtigen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen u.a. eine starke Abhängigkeit der Breite der Emissionskorridore von der Klima- und hydrologischen Sensitivität. Für kleine Werte einer oder beider Sensitivitäten liegt der obere Korridorrand bei weit höheren Emissionswerten als jene, die von plausiblen Emissionsszenarien für das 21. Jahrhundert erreicht werden. Für große Werte der Sensitivitäten hingegen, verlassen schon niedrige Emissionsszenarien den Korridor in den frühen Jahrzehnten des 21. Jahrhunderts. Dies impliziert eine Abkehr von den gegenwärtigen Emissionstrends innherhalb der kommenden Jahrzehnte, wenn das Risko eines THC Zusammenbruchs gering gehalten werden soll. <br /> <br /> Anhand einer Vielzahl von Anwendungen - von Sensitivitäts- über Bifurkationsanalysen hin zu integrierter Modellierung - zeigt diese Arbeit den Wert reduzierter Modelle auf. Die Ergebnisse und die daraus zu ziehenden Schlussfolgerungen liefern einen wertvollen Beitrag zu der wissenschaftlichen und politischen Diskussion bezüglich der Folgen des anthropogenen Klimawandels und der langfristigen Klimaschutzziele. / Concerns have been raised that anthropogenic climate change could lead to large-scale singular climate events, i.e., abrupt nonlinear climate changes with repercussions on regional to global scales. One central goal of this thesis is the development of models of two representative components of the climate system that could exhibit singular behavior: the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and the Indian monsoon. These models are conceived so as to fulfill the main requirements of integrated assessment modeling, i.e., reliability, computational efficiency, transparency and flexibility. <br /> <br /> The model of the THC is an interhemispheric four-box model calibrated against data generated with a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. It is designed to be driven by global mean temperature change which is translated into regional fluxes of heat and freshwater through a linear down-scaling procedure. Results of a large number of transient climate change simulations indicate that the reduced-form THC model is able to emulate key features of the behavior of comprehensive climate models such as the sensitivity of the THC to the amount, regional distribution and rate of change in the heat and freshwater fluxes. <br /> <br /> The Indian monsoon is described by a novel one-dimensional box model of the tropical atmosphere. It includes representations of the radiative and surface fluxes, the hydrological cycle and surface hydrology. Despite its high degree of idealization, the model satisfactorily captures relevant aspects of the observed monsoon dynamics, such as the annual course of precipitation and the onset and withdrawal of the summer monsoon. Also, the model exhibits the sensitivity to changes in greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol concentrations that are known from comprehensive models. <br /> <br /> A simplified version of the monsoon model is employed for the identification of changes in the qualitative system behavior against changes in boundary conditions. The most notable result is that under summer conditions a saddle-node bifurcation occurs at critical values of the planetary albedo or insolation. Furthermore, the system exhibits two stable equilibria: besides the wet summer monsoon, a stable state exists which is characterized by a weak hydrological cycle. These results are remarkable insofar, as they indicate that anthropogenic perturbations of the planetary albedo such as sulfur emissions and/or land-use changes could destabilize the Indian summer monsoon. <br /> <br /> The reduced-form THC model is employed in an exemplary integrated assessment application. Drawing on the conceptual and methodological framework of the tolerable windows approach, emissions corridors (i.e., admissible ranges of CO2- emissions) are derived that limit the risk of a THC collapse while considering expectations about the socio-economically acceptable pace of emissions reductions. Results indicate, for example, a large dependency of the width of the emissions corridor on climate and hydrological sensitivity: for low values of climate and/or hydrological sensitivity, the corridor boundaries are far from being transgressed by any plausible emissions scenario for the 21st century. In contrast, for high values of both quantities low non-intervention scenarios leave the corridor already in the early decades of the 21st century. This implies that if the risk of a THC collapse is to be kept low, business-as-usual paths would need to be abandoned within the next two decades. <br /> <br /> All in all, this thesis highlights the value of reduced-form modeling by presenting a number of applications of this class of models, ranging from sensitivity and bifurcation analysis to integrated assessment. The results achieved and conclusions drawn provide a useful contribution to the scientific and policy debate about the consequences of anthropogenic climate change and the long-term goals of climate protection. <br><br>--- <br> Anmerkung:<br> Die Autorin ist Trägerin des von der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Potsdam vergebenen Michelson-Preises für die beste Promotion des Jahres 2003/2004.

Accurate information about tree volume in tropical vegetation formations is critical for the identification of potential areas for sustainable timber production, carbon estimation and biodiversity conservation. Difficult access and the cost of obtaining a large number of samples needed for accurate wood volume and biomass determination are often barriers for carrying out inventories and studies in natural forests in Brazil. Therefore, the development of more efficient techniques of mensuration in tropical forests is an important mechanism for conservation, management and production advancement. The main purposes of this thesis are: introducing a new method for quantifying vertical and horizontal structures by using principal component analysis (PCA); developing two different approaches of volume modeling, one based on DBH and another based on crown area; proposing a new taper equation for native vegetation in three different formations; and estimating upper section diameters to become the geometric form method useful in natural vegetation in Brazil and reducing dependence on destructive measurements. / Informações corretas sobre o volume de árvores em formações de vegetação natural são fundamentais para a identificação de áreas potenciais para produção madeireira sustentável, estimativa de carbono e conservação da biodiversidade. Dificuldade de acesso e altos custos na obtenção de amostras necessárias para estimativas precisas de volume e biomassa são barreiras frequentes na condução de inventários e estudos florestais no Brasil. Dessa forma, o desenvolvimento de técnicas mais eficientes de mensuração em florestas tropicais é um importante mecanismo para o avanço da conservação, manejo e produção. Os principais objetivos deste trabalho foram: introduzir um novo método de quantificação das estruturas vertical e horizontal por meio do uso de análise de componentes principais (ACP); desenvolver modelos volumétricos baseados em DAP e modelos baseados em área de copa; propor uma nova função de afilamento aplicada a três diferentes formações vegetais; e estimar alturas em que deverão ter diâmetros medidos ao longo da árvore para tornar o método geométrico útil em formações naturais no Brasil, e reduzindo a necessidade de mensurações que requerem o abatimento das árvores.