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Regional Frequency Analysis Of Hydrometeorological Events - An Approach Based On Climate InformationSatyanarayana, P 02 1900 (has links)
The thesis is concerned with development of efficient regional frequency analysis (RFA) approaches to estimate quantiles of hydrometeorological events. The estimates are necessary for various applications in water resources engineering. The classical approach to estimate quantiles involves fitting frequency distribution to at-site data. However, this approach cannot be used when data at target site are inadequate or unavailable to compute parameters of the frequency distribution. This impediment can be overcome through RFA, in which sites having similar attributes are identified to form a region, and information is pooled from all the sites in the region to estimate the quantiles at target site. The thesis proposes new approaches to RFA of precipitation, meteorological droughts and floods, and demonstrates their effectiveness. The approach proposed for RFA of precipitation overcomes shortcomings of conventional approaches with regard to delineation and validation of homogeneous precipitation regions, and estimation of precipitation quantiles in ungauged and data sparse areas. For the first time in literature, distinction is made between attributes/variables useful to form homogeneous rainfall regions and to validate the regions.
Another important issue is that some of the attributes considered for regionalization vary dynamically with time. In conventional approaches, there is no provision to consider dynamic aspects of time varying attributes. This may lead to delineation of ineffective regions. To address this issue, a dynamic fuzzy clustering model (DFCM) is developed. The results obtained from application to Indian summer monsoon and annual rainfall indicated that RFA based on DFCM is more effective than that based on hard and fuzzy clustering models in arriving at rainfall quantile estimates. Errors in quantile estimates for the hard, fuzzy and dynamic fuzzy models based on the proposed approach are shown to be significantly less than those computed for Indian summer monsoon rainfall regions delineated in three previous studies. Overall, RFA based on DFCM and large scale atmospheric variables appeared promising. The performance of DFCM is followed by that of fuzzy and hard clustering models.
Next, a new approach is proposed for RFA of meteorological droughts. It is suggested that homogeneous precipitation regions have to be delineated before proceeding to develop drought severity - areal extent - frequency (SAF) curves. Drought SAF curves are constructed at annual and summer monsoon time scales for each of the homogeneous rainfall regions that are newly delineated in India based on the proposed approach. They find use in assessing spatial characteristics and frequency of meteorological droughts. It overcomes shortcomings associated with classical approaches that construct SAF curves for political (e.g., state, country) and physiographic regions (e.g., river basin), based on spatial patterns of at-site values of drought indices in the study area, without testing homogeneity in rainfall. Advantage of the new approach can be noted especially in areas that have significant variations in temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation (possibly due to variations in topography, landscape and climate).
The DFCM is extended to RFA of floods, and its effectiveness in prediction of flood quantiles is demonstrated by application to Godavari basin in India, considering precipitation as time varying attribute. Six new homogeneous regions are formed in Godavari basin and errors in quantile estimates based on those regions are shown to be significantly less than those computed based on sub-zones delineated in Godavari basin by Central Water Commission in a previous study.
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Técnicas de inteligência artificial aplicadas ao método de monitoramento de integridade estrutural baseado na impedância eletromecânica para monitoramento de danos em estruturas aeronáuticas / Artificial intelligence techniques applied to the impedance-based structural health monitoring technique for monitoring damage in aircraft structuresPalomino, Lizeth Vargas 03 July 2012 (has links)
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / The basic concept of impedance-based structure health monitoring is measuring the
variation of the electromechanical impedance of the structure as caused by the presence of
damage by using patches of piezoelectric material bonded on the surface of the structure (or
embedded into). The measured electrical impedance of the PZT patch is directly related to
the mechanical impedance of the structure. That is why the presence of damage can be
detected by monitoring the variation of the impedance signal. In order to quantify damage, a
metric is specially defined, which allows to assign a characteristic scalar value to the fault.
This study initially evaluates the influence of environmental conditions in the impedance
measurement, such as temperature, magnetic fields and ionic environment. The results show
that the magnetic field does not influence the impedance measurement and that the ionic
environment influences the results. However, when the sensor is shielded, the effect of the
ionic environment is significantly reduced. The influence of the sensor geometry has also
been studied. It has been established that the shape of the PZT patch (rectangular or
circular) has no influence on the impedance measurement. However, the position of the
sensor is an important issue to correctly detect damage. This work presents the development
of a low-cost portable system for impedance measuring to automatically measure and store
data from 16 PZT patches, without human intervention. One fundamental aspect in the
context of this work is to characterize the damage type from the various impedance signals
collected. In this sense, the techniques of artificial intelligence known as neural networks and
fuzzy cluster analysis were tested for classifying damage of aircraft structures, obtaining
satisfactory results. One last contribution of the present work is the study of the performance
of the electromechanical impedance-based structural health monitoring technique to detect
damage in structures under dynamic loading. Encouraging results were obtained for this aim. / O conceito básico da técnica de integridade estrutural baseada na impedância tem a ver com o
monitoramento da variação da impedância eletromecânica da estrutura, causada pela presença
alterações estruturais, através de pastilhas de material piezelétrico coladas na superfície da
estrutura ou nela incorporadas. A impedância medida se relaciona com a impedância mecânica
da estrutura. A partir da variação dos sinais de impedância pode-se concluir pela existência ou
não de uma falha. Para quantificar esta falha, métricas de dano são especialmente definidas,
permitindo atribuir-lhe um valor escalar característico. Este trabalho pretende inicialmente avaliar
a influência de algumas condições ambientais, tais como os campos magnéticos e os meios
iônicos na medição de impedância. Os resultados obtidos mostram que os campos magnéticos
não tem influência na medição de impedância e que os meios iônicos influenciam os resultados;
entretanto, ao blindar o sensor, este efeito se reduz consideravelmente. Também foi estudada a
influencia da geometria, ou seja, do formato do PZT e da posição do sensor com respeito ao
dano. Verificou-se que o formato do PZT não tem nenhuma influência na medição e que a
posição do sensor é importante para detectar corretamente o dano. Neste trabalho se apresenta
o desenvolvimento de um sistema de medição de impedância de baixo custo e portátil que tem a
capacidade de medir e armazenar a medição de 16 PZTs sem a necessidade de intervenção
humana. Um aspecto de fundamental importância no contexto deste trabalho é a caracterização
do dano a partir dos sinais de impedância coletados. Neste sentido, as técnicas de inteligência
artificial conhecidas como redes neurais e análises de cluster fuzzy, foram testadas para
classificar danos em estruturas aeronáuticas, obtendo resultados satisfatórios para esta tarefa.
Uma última contribuição deste trabalho é o estudo do comportamento da técnica de
monitoramento de integridade estrutural baseado na impedância eletromecânica na detecção de
danos em estruturas submetidas a carregamento dinâmico. Os resultados obtidos mostram que
a técnica funciona adequadamente nestes casos. / Doutor em Engenharia Mecânica
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