O investimento direto externo (IDE) tem se tornado cada vez mais relevante para a economia brasileira. A razão do fluxo de IDE sobre o PIB do país subiu de uma média de 0,6% na década de 1980 para 2,5% de 2001 a 2009 segundo dados da UNCTAD. Observa-se, também, uma grande iniquidade na distribuição deste investimento entre as Unidades Federativas brasileiras. O presente trabalho faz uma investigação sobre os fatores determinantes da localização do investimento direto externo entre estados brasileiros através de um estudo econométrico de dados em painel para os anos de 1995, 2000 e 2005. Os resultados apontam evidências de que os investimentos respondem positivamente ao tamanho do mercado consumidor, à qualidade da força de trabalho, à infraestrutura de transporte e negativamente ao custo de mão de obra e a alta carga tributária. / Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has become increasingly relevant for the Brazilian economy. The flow of FDI on the country\'s GDP ratio presented an average of 0.6% in the 1980s and rose to 2.5% within the period of 2001 to 2009, according to data from UNCTAD. There is also a great inequity in the distribution of investment between Brazilian states. This paper makes a research on the determinants of the location of foreign direct investment among Brazilian states through a panel data econometric study for the years 1995, 2000 and 2005. The results show that investments respond positively to the size of the consumer market, the quality of the workforce, the transport infrastructure and negatively to the cost of labor and high taxes.

nÃo hà / A tese intitulada âTrÃs Ensaios em Macroeconometriaâ à composta de trÃs capÃtulos. O primeiro capÃtulo aplica um modelo em painel dinÃmico para analisar a convergÃncia da taxa de crescimento do PIB per capita, numa abordagem nÃo linear atravÃs de um efeito threshold para os vinte e seis Estados brasileiros mais o Distrito Federal, durante o perÃodo 1985-2005. Os resultados indicam a existÃncia de dois clubes de convergÃncia, um formado pelos estados que se encontram no regime de baixa renda, formado pelos estados da regiÃo nordeste, norte (com exceÃÃo do estado do Amazonas) e o estado de GoiÃs, enquanto que o outro clube à formado por aqueles que se encontram no regime de alta renda, compostos pelos estados da regiÃo sul e sudeste, mais os estados de Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul e o Distrito Federal. No segundo capÃtulo aplica-se uma formulaÃÃo de tendÃncias comuns Ãs variÃveis PIB real, taxa de juros SELIC nominal, oferta monetÃria do agregado M1 e taxa de inflaÃÃo IPCA, para extrair uma medida de nÃcleo de inflaÃÃo com caracterÃsticas fowardlooking. ApÃs determinar o nÃcleo de inflaÃÃo para o IPCA, testam-se as condiÃÃes para uma medida de nÃcleo segundo Marques et al. (2003) juntamente com duas outras medidas de nÃcleo fornecidas pelo Banco Central do Brasil. Por Ãltimo testam-se a acurÃcia de previsÃes fora da amostra feitas por essas medidas para o IPCA. Os resultados confirmam que a medida de nÃcleo por tendÃncias comuns tem um bom poder preditivo. O terceiro capÃtulo testa a hipÃtese da paridade do poder de compra (PPP) para o Brasil durante o perÃodo de 1985 a 2008 atravÃs da aplicaÃÃo dos testes de raiz unitÃria em painel com dependÃncia transversal apresentados em Moon e Perron (2004) e Pesaran (2007). Utiliza-se como base de dados o Ãndice de inflaÃÃo INPC para nove regiÃes metropolitanas: Belo Horizonte, BelÃm, Curitiba, Fortaleza, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, SÃo Paulo e Salvador. Os resultados mostram mudanÃa de persistÃncia apÃs a implementaÃÃo do Plano Real. Enquanto que no perÃodo de alta inflaÃÃo a hipÃtese de Paridade do Poder de Compra PPP à satisfeita, no perÃodo de estabilizaÃÃo de preÃos a PPP nÃo à satisfeita. Este resultado à fortalecido atravÃs da anÃlise das estatÃsticas descritivas dos dados. / The thesis entitled "TrÃs Ensaios em Macroeconometria" is composed of three chapters. The first chapter applies a dynamic panel model to analyze the convergence rate of growth of GDP per capita, non-linear approach using a threshold effect for the twenty-six Brazilian states plus the Distrito Federal during the period 1985-2005. The results indicate the existence of two convergence clubs, one formed by the states that are in the regime of low income, formed by the Northeast region, north (with the exception of the state of Amazonas) and the state of GoiÃs, while other club consists of those who are in the regime of income, formed by the states of South and Southeast, over the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Distrito Federal. The second chapter presents a formulation of common trends in the variables real GDP, nominal interest rate Selic, money supply of M1 and IPCA inflation rate, to extract a measure of core inflation with features foward-looking. After determining the core inflation for the IPCA, we tested the conditions for a measure of core second Marques et al. (2003) along with two other core measures provided by the Banco Central do Brasil. Finally, we tested the accuracy of forecasts out of sample made by these measures to the IPCA. The results confirm that the measure of core inflation by common trends have a good predictive power. The third chapter tests the hypothesis of purchasing power parity (PPP) in Brazil during the period 1985 to 2008 by applying the unit root tests in panel with cross section dependence presented in Moon and Perron (2004) and Pesaran (2007 ). We tested the index of inflation INPC for nine metropolitan areas: Belo Horizonte, BelÃm, Curitiba, Fortaleza, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, SÃo Paulo and Salvador. The results show a change in persistence after the Plano Real. While in the period of high inflation the PPP is satisfied, the period of stabilization of prices to PPP is not satisfied. This result is strengthened by examining the descriptive statistics of the data.

Submitted by Bárbara Conte (conte.babi@gmail.com) on 2013-09-12T19:53:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Bárbara.Conte_DissertaçãoMPFE.pdf: 523048 bytes, checksum: 827713ba2324041acb3fa60f11a232f7 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-09-13T12:28:38Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Bárbara.Conte_DissertaçãoMPFE.pdf: 523048 bytes, checksum: 827713ba2324041acb3fa60f11a232f7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-13T13:09:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Bárbara.Conte_DissertaçãoMPFE.pdf: 523048 bytes, checksum: 827713ba2324041acb3fa60f11a232f7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-08-19 / This paper aims to apply a nonlinear model to the Brazilian GDP. To achieve this goal we tested the existence of non-linearity of the data generating process with the methodology suggested by Castle and Henry (2010). The test verifies the persistence of the nonlinear regressors in an unconstrained linear model. Next, the series is modeled as an Autoregressive Model Threshold using the general-to-specifs approach to select the model. Autometrics is the automatic selection algorithm used to choose the nonlinear model. The results indicate that the Gross Domestic Product of Brazil is best explained by a non-linear model with three regime changes that occur in the early '90s, which, in fact, was a period quite volatile. Through modeling nonlinear exists the potential for cycle dating, however the results were not sufficient for such analysis. / O trabalho tem como objetivo aplicar uma modelagem não linear ao Produto Interno Bruto brasileiro. Para tanto foi testada a existência de não linearidade do processo gerador dos dados com a metodologia sugerida por Castle e Henry (2010). O teste consiste em verificar a persistência dos regressores não lineares no modelo linear irrestrito. A seguir a série é modelada a partir do modelo autoregressivo com limiar utilizando a abordagem geral para específico na seleção do modelo. O algoritmo Autometrics é utilizado para escolha do modelo não linear. Os resultados encontrados indicam que o Produto Interno Bruto do Brasil é melhor explicado por um modelo não linear com três mudanças de regime, que ocorrem no inicio dos anos 90, que, de fato, foi um período bastante volátil. Através da modelagem não linear existe o potencial para datação de ciclos, no entanto os resultados encontrados não foram suficientes para tal análise.

There exists significant literature investigating the link between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns. Most previous studies utilise an overall stock market index to measure stock market returns, thereby aggregating a number of different industries into a single index. This research investigated the link between macroeconomic variables and a single sector’s share returns, being the Resources sector. The aim was to ascertain whether or not a correlation exists between the Resource Index of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and four macroeconomic variables, namely: GDP, Inflation, Interest rates and the Rand/US Dollar Exchange Rate. Quarterly data for all 4 macroeconomic variables and the Resource Index was collected for the period 2002 to 2011 and tests of correlation performed between each macroeconomic variable and the Resource Index. The findings reveal that there is a positive correlation between GDP and resources share returns, a negative correlation between interest rates and resources share returns and a positive relationship between the Rand/US Dollar Exchange rate and resources share returns. The relationship between the inflation and the resource share returns proved inconclusive.Copyright / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

The Czech economic transition started in the beginning of nineties, coming with a number of changes to tore down the dogma of socialist methods not only in the labour force allocation. The most important contribution of this thesis is to reflect these changes by using the empirical testing of selected models and commonly available statistical indicators. The thesis investigates the development of the labour market in the Czech Republic at a critical period of reform in the last decade of the twentieth century. In addition to the main objective the work focuses also on the identification of causal relationships between indicators and critically assesses them. In conclusion of the thesis are summarized the most important changes that created the Czech labour market during the reporting period, the success of the Czech economic transformation is valorised in the context of other countries in the region with similar experiences. The work is primarily based on academic economic literature and analyses of officially published statistical indicators.

The aim of this diploma thesis is to cover the catching up with the economic level among the countries of middle and eastern Europe. More accurately it analyses GDP per capita and household income per capita as one of the key economic indicators. The thesis concretely focuses on analysis of beta and sigma convergence and cluster analysis of the mentioned regions and concurrently at the background of the analysis explains some theoretical terms from areas of economics, econometrics and statistics. The analysis was concluded in IBM SPSS programme which belongs to the most complex, user friendly and professionally often used expert tools. The data for the analysis were used from Eurostat.

This thesis deals with the monetary theory of business cycles as presented by the so called Austrian school of economics. It analyzes the different economic effects of investments financed by saving as opposed to investments financed by credit expansion. It shows that in the latter case an unsustainable situation results in which economic actors try both to invest and to consume more at the same time, which is physically impossible. The result is recession and liquidation of malinvestments made during the boom. The thesis also provides an answer to critiques of the Austrian business cycle theory by proponents of the rational expectations hypothesis. Furthermore, a critique of traditional national income accounting measures, namely GDP, is put forward. These measures fail to adequately show the described cyclical changes in the economy's productive structure, e.g. the artificial boom and subsequent correction. Gross domestic revenue (GDR) is proposed as an alternative measure that adds the expenditure on intermediate products back to GDP. In the last part of the thesis GDR is calculated for the Czech economy.

Is GDP per capita one of the main drivers affecting demand for passenger air travelling? Based on the time series analysis conducted for North American and Middle Eastern region, we have not rejected hypothesis about positive impact of GDP per capita on demand for air travelling. The thesis also analyzes whether the effects observed are weaker for more developed and more saturated markets. The second hypothesis was rejected, as we have found that the effect of the GDP per capita was on average 10% stronger for the North American region than for the Middle Eastern region. Moreover, we have found that for both regions oil prices are the important driver of the passenger air travel demand.

My thesis titled The Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of Armenia starts with characteristics of Armenia, where I focus on economic attributes of the country, international conflicts and their effects on Armenia, population development, poverty and corruption. The second part is focused on economic development of Armenia, the country's employment rate, particular items of the balance of payments and international trade. Furthermore, this part also consists of information related to the development of Armenian currency and the country's foreign debt. The third, significant part of my thesis deals with the Central Bank of Armenia and Armenia's financial system, concentrating mainly on history and the present of the subject central bank. Later in this part, I inquire into Armenia's monetary policy, where I focus on its applied transmission mechanisms and the CBA's instruments.The final part of this thesis is about what effects the CBA has on Armenia's economic development. I look into effects of monetary policy on price level development and meeting the inflation objectives. The conclusion part summarizes and gathers all pieces of information I have obtained by studying numerous literature resources and conducting personal interviews with several representatives of the Armenian banking system.This part also summarizes benefits of the CBA and its effects on economic development of Armenia, credibility evaluation and effectiveness in the objectives.

The aim of the thesis is to analyze the process of nominal and real convergence of the Czech Republic to the average of the European Union (EU-27). The text uses comparison with other european transition economies (Slovakia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia). The thesis consists of an analysis of the progress of real GDP per capita, comparative price level, labor productivity, employment, labor costs and other indicators. Other topics such as alternative indicators of economical convergence or the accession of the Czech republic into the euro-zone are discussed.