Disertacijoje nagrinėjama aktuali lyčių aspekto poveikio ekonominei politikai vertinimo problema. Europos Sąjungoje lyčių lygybė pripažįstama viena iš pamatinių vertybių, o realus jos principų įgyvendinimas praktikoje bei suvokimas visuomenėje atspindi šalies pažangą ir išsivystymo lygį. Šio darbo tyrimo objektas – lyčių aspekto poveikis ekonominei politikai. Tyrimo tikslas – išanalizavus mokslinius požiūrius į lyčių lygybę ir lyčių aspekto integravimo strategiją, parengti lyčių aspekto poveikio vertinimo ekonominei politikai metodologiją, konceptualinį modelį, įvertinti lyčių aspekto poveikį makro ir mikroekonomikos lygiu bei pateikti rekomendacijas valstybinėms institucijoms įgyvendinant lyčių lygybės politiką. Disertacijoje atlikta kritinė lyčių lygybės teorijų ir strateginių lyčių lygybę įtvirtinančių dokumentų analizė bei įvertintos juose skelbiamos nuostatos, suformuota lyčių aspekto ekonominėje politikoje koncepcija, pasiūlyta lyčių lygybės tyrimo metodologija makro ir mikroekonominiu lygiu, sukurtas lyčių aspekto poveikio vertinimo ekonominei politikai konceptualinis modelis; pateiktas moterų rūpybos ekomikos indėlio į BVP įvertinimas; atlikta BVP, LR nacionalinio biudžeto ir užsienio prekybos analizė lyčių aspektu, lyčių padėties Lietuvos ir ES darbo rinkoje lyginamoji analizė bei pateiktas Lietuvos moterų verslo modelis. / The dissertation examines the topical issue of assessment of the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy. In the European Union, gender equality is recognised as one of the fundamental values, while the implementation of its principles in practice and the awareness of such principles in society reflect a country’s progress and level of development. The object of research of the dissertation is the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy. The aim of research is, upon analysing scientific approaches to gender equality and gender mainstreaming, to develop a methodology for assessment of the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy and a conceptual model, to assess the impact of the gender aspect at the macro- and micro-economic levels and to provide recommendations to authorities as regards the implementation of gender equality policy. The dissertation carries out a critical analysis of theories of gender equality and strategic documents stipulating gender equality and evaluates their provisions, formulates the concept of the gender aspect in economic policy, proposes a methodology of gender research equality at the macro- and micro-economic levels, develops a conceptual model of assessment of the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy; presents an assessment of the contribution of women’s care economy to GDP; carries out a gender analysis of GDP, the national budget of the Republic of Lithuania and foreign trade, a comparative analysis of the gender... [to full text]

Foreign aid is a major flow of income into sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, averaging roughly 12% of GDP over the last four decades. Yet, SSA countries are characterized by very low per capita output, low human capital attainment, and widespread poverty. This dissertation investigates the macroeconomic and welfare effects of foreign aid to SSA countries. The empirical part of the dissertation studies 22 SSA countries, and uses a cointegrated vector autoregressive analysis (CVAR). This methodology identifies long-run effects without imposing strong statistical priors. I introduce tradable and non-tradable sectors into the analysis to determine if the so-called “Dutch Disease” is the reason for the plight of SSA countries. “Dutch Disease” occurs when a positive shock to foreign aid perversely reduces GDP, by decreasing the relative price of tradable to nontradable goods, thus reducing the size of the tradable sector. While I find that aid reduces GDP in eight countries, this result is inconsistent with the “Dutch Disease” as it is not accompanied by large relative price changes. The analysis controls for a number of country-specific characteristics including extraordinary events. Overall, I find non-positive impacts of foreign aid on GDP and the tradable sector, with a few exceptions. I also consider the reverse causal channel and test whether country-specific macroeconomic variables drive foreign aid flows. I find that GDP, tradable output, and tradable and non-tradable goods prices do affect the amount of aid a country receives in 15 countries. These variables have no impact on foreign aid (aid is considered as weakly exogenous) in six countries. The theoretical part of the dissertation develops two dynamic stochastic general equilibrium — real business cycle — (DSGE-RBC) models to analyze the effects of foreign aid on human capital investment and the business cycle. The distinguishing feature of the models is to embed a human capital investment in a small open economy model of Mendoza (1991). The first model considers one-sector DSGE model, which is followed by two-sector (tradable and non-tradable) DSGE model. Both models distinguish between physical and human capital investment and allow for labor-leisure choice. In the analysis, labor supply and time spent studying or acquiring skills are optimally chosen. The models are calibrated to match the key features of the Kenyan economy. In both models, a positive aid shock initially has a negative impact on labor supply and output. However, the shock subsequently has a positive effect on physical and human capital investment, and time spent studying. This is due to a positive income effect from the shock. A rise in foreign aid increases consumption; consumption smoothing across periods raises physical and human capital investment, labor productivity, and output. I also find that reducing the volatility of aid has a significant positive effect on human capital investment and welfare. Policymakers should focus on reducing the volatility of foreign aid and not solely concentrate on the average level of aid. The analysis of the two-sector DSGE-RBC model incorporates the role for the “Dutch Disease” mechanism. Consistent with the “Dutch Disease”, I find that a shock to foreign aid appreciates the relative price of non-tradable goods that causes the factors of production to reallocate from the tradable sector to the non-tradable sector, leading to a decline in GDP and the tradable output. Finding the “Dutch Disease” result here is not necessarily at odds with the CVAR estimation results as the DSGE-RBC simulation is a short-run analysis and the CVAR estimation is a long-run analysis. / Graduate

Submitted by Rosivalda Pereira (mrs.pereira@ufma.br) on 2017-05-23T21:23:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MariaNunesCarvalho.pdf: 2262222 bytes, checksum: e8a575c927d9726aab5a62238b43275f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-23T21:23:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MariaNunesCarvalho.pdf: 2262222 bytes, checksum: e8a575c927d9726aab5a62238b43275f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-15 / The pension benefits of pensions of the General Welfare, paid according to the precepts of the Constitution of 1988 the population residing in the counties of Maranhão point to their significant participation in the local economy. To understand the experience of social security benefits in the municipalities of Maranhão, is essential to look back on the origins of Social Security, as well as its deployment and evolution in Brazil as a public policy of the State and Society. The reflections of the presence of social security benefits on the local economy maranhenses observed either in the composition of the municipal GDP, as in the composition of household income, both calculated by the IBGE. Social indicators HDI and Gini Index from 1991 to 2000 and the Municipal Development Index also reflect the importance of social security benefits for the welfare of the municipal population. The adoption of a policy of regional economic development in the territory Maranhão, combined with the globalized world economy, it is salutary for the municipal economy and Social Security. Maintaining the By-laws of Public Welfare in the Constitution is an important tool in achieving the development and achievement of welfare and social justice for millions of Brazilians. / Os benefícios previdenciários de aposentadorias e pensões do Regime Geral de Previdência Social, pagos conforme os preceitos da Constituição Federal de 1988 à população residente nos municípios do Maranhão, apontam para a sua significativa participação na economia local. Para entender a experiência dos benefícios previdenciários nos municípios do Maranhão é indispensável um olhar retrospectivo sobre a origem da Previdência Social, assim como a sua implantação e evolução no Brasil como uma política pública do Estado e da Sociedade. Os reflexos da presença dos benefícios previdenciárias na economia dos municípios maranhenses podem ser observados tanto na composição do Produto Interno Bruto municipal, como na composição da Renda das famílias, ambos calculados pelo IBGE. Os indicadores sociais como IDH, Índice de Gini e Índice de Desenvolvimento Municipal também refletem a importância dos benefícios previdenciários para o bem estar da população municipal. A adoção de uma política regional de desenvolvimento econômico no território maranhense, articulada com o mundo econômico globalizado, é salutar para a economia municipal e para a Previdência Social. A manutenção dos regramentos da Previdência Social Pública no texto constitucional é uma ferramenta relevante no alcance do desenvolvimento e na conquista do bem-estar e da justiça social para milhões de brasileiros.

The Czech Republic has committed itself to adopt the euro with joining the European union in 2004. Until today there has not been any political interest of setting the specific date of euro adoption due to low public approval. Currently, there is an increase of positive public opinion about euro so it is the right time to start an objective discussion. The thesis is divided into three parts. The First part describes the history and evolution of the European monetary union, Maastricht convergence criteria and the theory of optimal currency area. The second part presents possible economic benefits and costs of joining the monetary union. The third and the main part examines the real effects of euro adoption on sample of selected countries with similar characteristics. The impact of euro on main economic indicators was analysed and there has been carried out a comparison between these countries. Also the role of euro in trade of selected countries has been highlighted. Last but not least, the possible impact of euro on country competitivness has been analysed in the context of optimum currency area theory. It is expected that joining the monetary union leads to a boost of bilateral trade which harmonizes the economic cycles of trade partners. The main purpose of this part is to prove the increase of competitiveness of exporters gained from monetary union measured by the raise of the bilateral trade interconnection. Finally these two criteria - gross domestic product alignment and bilateral trade interconnection have been used to describe the suitability of Czech Republic as a candidate country for the European monetary union.

<p>The economic development and industrialization that has taken place in many parts of the world during the past century has brought about a huge increase in economic welfare. During this process, it has repeatedly been debated whether the gains from economic development are shared by everyone or just a few. In the field of economics, vast research has been conducted on this particular subject ever since the 1950’s. The most famous contribution might be said to be Simon Kuznets article, Growth and Income Inequality from 1955 and the ”inverted U”-hypothesis that was formulated on the basis of that article. The essence of the hypothesis is that a country, during its development, moves from agricultural to industrial production. At first, income inequality increases and then, at the end of the process, decreases.</p><p>The aim of this paper has been to investigate the relationship between income distribution and economic development in a particular region, namely the countries of the former Soviet Union, during 1992-2003. Also, we have tested whether Kuznets theory and the “inverted U”-hypothesis hold true for our sample. The investigations method is a survey, which uses secondary data collected from the World Bank’s database of World Development Indicators. Regression-analysis has been employed to conduct cross-sections between 20 countries over 4 periods in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The number of observations equals to 62. The variables that we use are: the Gini index, GDP per capita and the agricultural sector’s share of GDP.</p><p>The results of the regression do not indicate any resemblance to the pattern of the “inverted U”-hypothesis. The curve we get is that of a “positive U”. Countries with high GDP per capita as well as countries with low GDP per capita have high income inequality. Countries with mediate GDP per capita levels have low income inequality. Our analysis concludes that the countries in our sample might have had a very unique economic development following the fall of the Soviet Union. Only 7 countries partly follow the Kuznets theory if tested individually. Since these seven countries seem to have a reversed development with increasing agricultural sector and the remainder of the countries show increasing income inequality, we reject the “inverted U”-hypothesis and question the ability of Kuznets’ theory to explain income distribution for our sample.</p>

The economic development and industrialization that has taken place in many parts of the world during the past century has brought about a huge increase in economic welfare. During this process, it has repeatedly been debated whether the gains from economic development are shared by everyone or just a few. In the field of economics, vast research has been conducted on this particular subject ever since the 1950’s. The most famous contribution might be said to be Simon Kuznets article, Growth and Income Inequality from 1955 and the ”inverted U”-hypothesis that was formulated on the basis of that article. The essence of the hypothesis is that a country, during its development, moves from agricultural to industrial production. At first, income inequality increases and then, at the end of the process, decreases. The aim of this paper has been to investigate the relationship between income distribution and economic development in a particular region, namely the countries of the former Soviet Union, during 1992-2003. Also, we have tested whether Kuznets theory and the “inverted U”-hypothesis hold true for our sample. The investigations method is a survey, which uses secondary data collected from the World Bank’s database of World Development Indicators. Regression-analysis has been employed to conduct cross-sections between 20 countries over 4 periods in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The number of observations equals to 62. The variables that we use are: the Gini index, GDP per capita and the agricultural sector’s share of GDP. The results of the regression do not indicate any resemblance to the pattern of the “inverted U”-hypothesis. The curve we get is that of a “positive U”. Countries with high GDP per capita as well as countries with low GDP per capita have high income inequality. Countries with mediate GDP per capita levels have low income inequality. Our analysis concludes that the countries in our sample might have had a very unique economic development following the fall of the Soviet Union. Only 7 countries partly follow the Kuznets theory if tested individually. Since these seven countries seem to have a reversed development with increasing agricultural sector and the remainder of the countries show increasing income inequality, we reject the “inverted U”-hypothesis and question the ability of Kuznets’ theory to explain income distribution for our sample.

Bakgrund: Åren 86-97 kännetecknas som en period med flera stora reformer och en svensk konjunktur som nådde sin botten med tre år i följd av negativ BNP-tillväxt. Påtagligt var även reaktionen från Stockholmsbörsen som i samband med lågkonjunkturen upplevde en kraftig nedgång. Vad drev då denna avkastningsutveckling, vinsterna eller värderingarna av dessa? Hur såg sambandet ut mellan konjunktur, bolagsvinster, vinstvärderingar och börsutveckling för perioden? Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats, på uppdrag av Melker Schörling AB, är att studera avkastningsutveckling, bolagsvinster och P/E-multiplar över en konjunkturcykel för att analysera till vilken grad multipelexpansion/kontraktion kontra vinsttillväxt drivit avkastningen för olika branscher på Stockholmsbörsen. I ett andra skede utreds huruvida prognoser för P/E-tal och branschvinster på Stockholmsbörsen korrelerat med konjunkturen samt även hur EBITDA- och vinstmarginaler inverkat på aktievärderingar under tidsperioden. Utifrån studiens resultat kommer eventuella lärdomar kopplas till dagens konjunkturella situation. Genomförande: Insamlat datamaterial i form av siffror och nyckeltal utgår från Affärsvärldens tidsskrifter och årsböcker med början 1986 och slut 1997. Utifrån dessa har, för studien, relevanta beräkningar dessutom gjorts. Resultat: Studien av Stockholmsbörsen 86-97, där handelsbranschen genomled konjunkturnedgången bäst, visar inte på att konjunkturen spelar roll för avkastningsutvecklingen. Vinstprognoserna drev avkastningen under lågkonjunkturen medan vinstvärderingarna dämpade nedgången. Genomgående ökade vinstvärderingarna under lågkonjunkturen till följd av att vinstprognoserna föll mer än kursen. Studien visar på att dessa ökade vinstvärderingar innehöll överskattade vinstförväntningar. Innan börsnedgången befann sig P/E-talen på relativt låga nivåer och när utväxlingen i samband med lågkonjunkturens slut skedde var P/E-talen höga, vilket ifrågasätter huruvida P/E-talet egentligen är representativt under en lågkonjunktur samt dess förmåga att indikera på risk. Prognostiserat P/E-tal korrelerar väl med faktiskt P/E-tal men det faktiska fluktuerar i större grad. Marginalerna, som korrelerar negativt med vinstvärderingarna, uppvisar en laggningseffekt gentemot omsättningen. / Background: The years 86-97 are characterized as a period with many big reformations when the Swedish economy reached its bottom with three years in a row with negative GDP. The reaction from the Swedish stock market was substantial and Stockholmsbörsen went through a heavy bearish period. What was it that drove this stock return, the expected earnings or the valuation of them? What was the connection between the business cycle, earnings, valuations and stock return for this particular period? Aim: The aim of the thesis, on behalf of Melker Schörling AB, is to study stock return, company earnings and price-earnings ratios during a business cycle in order to analyse to what extent multiple expansion/contraction versus earnings growth have driven stock return for the different branches on Stockholmsbörsen. In a second stage we observe how estimates of branches’ price-earnings ratios and earnings correlate with the business cycle and what impact EBITDA and pre-tax profit margin have on valuation during the period. Based on the result of the thesis, contingent knowledge will be related to today’s economic situation. Completion: The data, consisting of figures and ratios, is collected from magazines and yearbooks of Affärsvärlden starting 1986 and ending 1997. With the help of these, relevant calculations have been made. Result: This study of Stockholmsbörsen during the years 86-97, where the consumer-goods index had the best performance, shows that the business cycle has no impact on the stock return. The earnings estimates drove the stock return during the economic slump of 91-93 while the valuations tempered the fall. Through the economic slump the valuations became higher due to the fact that the earnings estimates fell more than the stock return. The study also shows that the increased valuations consisted of overestimated earnings estimates. Before the stock market fell the price-earnings ratios were at relatively low levels and when bull period begun in the end of the economic slump the ratios were high. This fact questions whether the price-earnings ratio is representative during an economic slump and if the ratio indicates risk accurately. Forward PE correlates positively with current PE, but the current PE is more volatile. Margins, which correlate negatively with valuations, indicate a lagging effect towards sales growth.

<p>Bakgrund: Åren 86-97 kännetecknas som en period med flera stora reformer och en svensk konjunktur som nådde sin botten med tre år i följd av negativ BNP-tillväxt. Påtagligt var även reaktionen från Stockholmsbörsen som i samband med lågkonjunkturen upplevde en kraftig nedgång. Vad drev då denna avkastningsutveckling, vinsterna eller värderingarna av dessa? Hur såg sambandet ut mellan konjunktur, bolagsvinster, vinstvärderingar och börsutveckling för perioden?</p><p>Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats, på uppdrag av Melker Schörling AB, är att studera avkastningsutveckling, bolagsvinster och P/E-multiplar över en konjunkturcykel för att analysera till vilken grad multipelexpansion/kontraktion kontra vinsttillväxt drivit avkastningen för olika branscher på Stockholmsbörsen.</p><p>I ett andra skede utreds huruvida prognoser för P/E-tal och branschvinster på Stockholmsbörsen korrelerat med konjunkturen samt även hur EBITDA- och vinstmarginaler inverkat på aktievärderingar under tidsperioden. Utifrån studiens resultat kommer eventuella lärdomar kopplas till dagens konjunkturella situation.</p><p>Genomförande: Insamlat datamaterial i form av siffror och nyckeltal utgår från Affärsvärldens tidsskrifter och årsböcker med början 1986 och slut 1997. Utifrån dessa har, för studien, relevanta beräkningar dessutom gjorts.</p><p>Resultat: Studien av Stockholmsbörsen 86-97, där handelsbranschen genomled konjunkturnedgången bäst, visar inte på att konjunkturen spelar roll för avkastningsutvecklingen. Vinstprognoserna drev avkastningen under lågkonjunkturen medan vinstvärderingarna dämpade nedgången. Genomgående ökade vinstvärderingarna under lågkonjunkturen till följd av att vinstprognoserna föll mer än kursen. Studien visar på att dessa ökade vinstvärderingar innehöll överskattade vinstförväntningar. Innan börsnedgången befann sig P/E-talen på relativt låga nivåer och när utväxlingen i samband med lågkonjunkturens slut skedde var P/E-talen höga, vilket ifrågasätter huruvida P/E-talet egentligen är representativt under en lågkonjunktur samt dess förmåga att indikera på risk. Prognostiserat P/E-tal korrelerar väl med faktiskt P/E-tal men det faktiska fluktuerar i större grad. Marginalerna, som korrelerar negativt med vinstvärderingarna, uppvisar en laggningseffekt gentemot omsättningen.</p> / <p>Background: The years 86-97 are characterized as a period with many big reformations when the Swedish economy reached its bottom with three years in a row with negative GDP. The reaction from the Swedish stock market was substantial and Stockholmsbörsen went through a heavy bearish period. What was it that drove this stock return, the expected earnings or the valuation of them? What was the connection between the business cycle, earnings, valuations and stock return for this particular period?</p><p>Aim: The aim of the thesis, on behalf of Melker Schörling AB, is to study stock return, company earnings and price-earnings ratios during a business cycle in order to analyse to what extent multiple expansion/contraction versus earnings growth have driven stock return for the different branches on Stockholmsbörsen.</p><p>In a second stage we observe how estimates of branches’ price-earnings ratios and earnings correlate with the business cycle and what impact EBITDA and pre-tax profit margin have on valuation during the period. Based on the result of the thesis, contingent knowledge will be related to today’s economic situation.</p><p>Completion: The data, consisting of figures and ratios, is collected from magazines and yearbooks of Affärsvärlden starting 1986 and ending 1997. With the help of these, relevant calculations have been made.</p><p>Result: This study of Stockholmsbörsen during the years 86-97, where the consumer-goods index had the best performance, shows that the business cycle has no impact on the stock return. The earnings estimates drove the stock return during the economic slump of 91-93 while the valuations tempered the fall. Through the economic slump the valuations became higher due to the fact that the earnings estimates fell more than the stock return. The study also shows that the increased valuations consisted of overestimated earnings estimates. Before the stock market fell the price-earnings ratios were at relatively low levels and when bull period begun in the end of the economic slump the ratios were high. This fact questions whether the price-earnings ratio is representative during an economic slump and if the ratio indicates risk accurately. Forward PE correlates positively with current PE, but the current PE is more volatile. Margins, which correlate negatively with valuations, indicate a lagging effect towards sales growth.</p>

This doctoral thesis is a collection of four papers on the analysis of the term structure of interest rates with a focus at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance. "Risk in Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Bond Return Predictability" documents that factors related to risks underlying the macroeconomy such as expectations, uncertainty and downside (upside) macroeconomic risks are able to explain variation in bond risk premia. The information provided is found to be, to a large extent, unrelated to that contained in forward rates and current macroeconomic conditions. "Out-of-sample bond excess returns predictability" provides evidence that macroeconomic variables, risks in macroeconomic outcomes as well as the combination of these different sources of information are able to generate statistical as well as economic bond excess returns predictability in an out-of-sample setting. Results suggest that this finding is not driven by revisions in macroeconomic data. The term spread (yield curve slope) is largely used as an indicator of future economic activity. "Re-examining the predictive power of the yield curve with quantile regression" provides new evidence on the predictive ability of the term spread by studying the whole conditional distribution of GDP growth. "Modeling and forecasting the yield curve by extended Nelson-Siegel class of models: a quantile regression approach" deals with yield curve prediction. More flexible Nelson-Siegel models are found to provide better fitting to the data, even when penalizing for additional model complexity. For the forecasting exercise, quantile-based models are found to overcome all competitors. / <p>Diss. Stockholm :  Stockholm School of Economics, 2014. Introduction together with 4 papers.</p>

Den Europeiska Unionen är en mångfacetterad samling länder med ett brett spektra av historisk bakgrund, geografisk placering och ekonomiska förhållanden. I denna uppsats undersöks huruvida en gemensam europeisk identitet kan bidra till en ökad tillit från medborgarna i unionen till EU som institution. Uppsatsens teoretiska underlag består av tidigare forskning. Denna forskning skapar ett fundament för den statistiska modell som används för att besvara frågeställningen. Med hjälp av data samlad ur bland annat Eurobarometerrapporter tar uppsatsen, via multipel linjär regression, fram en modell som förklarar förhållandet mellan den beroende variabeln ”förtroende för EU” och de oberoende variablerna ”uppfattning av gemensam europeisk identitet”, ”avstånd till Bryssel”, ”BNP per capita” och ”antal år som medlem i EU”. Resultatet visar en koppling mellan en högre grad av upplevd gemensam identitet hos medborgarna i ett land och ett ökat förtroende för EU. Vidare visar modellen ett negativt samband mellan förtroendet för EU och ett stigande värde på var och en av de övriga förklaringsvariablerna. Med andra ord: ju längre avstånd till Bryssel, ju högre BNP per capita och ju längre medlemskap i unionen desto lägre förtroende känner den genomsnittlige medborgaren för EU. / The European Union is a diverse group of countries characterized by a wide spectra of historical background, geographical location and economic situation. The topic of this essay is whether a common European identity can contribute to an increased level of trust from the citizens towards the EU as an institution. Previous research constitute the theoretical basis of the essay. Using this research, I create the foundation for the statistical model used to answer the question at issue. Using multiple linear regression on data gathered from Eurobarometer reports and other sources, I create a statistical model that explains the relationship between the dependent variable “trust in EU” and the independent variables “feeling of being an EU-citizen”, “distance to Brussels”, “BNP per capita” and “number of years as member of EU”. The results shows a connection between a higher level of feeling of being an EU-citizen and a higher level of trust in EU. Moreover, the model shows a negative connection between trust in EU and an increasing value on each of the other independent variables. In other words: the further away the average citizen is from Brussels, the higher level of BNP per capita her country has and the longer her country has been a member of the EU, the lower trust she has in the EU.