This study examined the hypothesis that developmental expression of psychometric risk in the form of subclinical psychotic experiences in the general population is usually transitory but in some instances may become abnormally persistent and progress to a clinical psychotic state. A prospective cohort study was conducted in a general population sample of 845 adolescents, aged 14–17 years, in Munich, Germany (Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology Study). Expression of psychosis was assessed 4 times (T0–T3) over a period of 8.4 years. Transition from subclinical psychosis at T0–T2 to clinical psychosis in terms of impairment at T3 was examined as a function of the level of prior persistence of subclinical psychosis (present never, once, twice, or thrice). The more the subclinical psychosis persisted over the period T0–T2, the greater the risk of transition to clinical psychosis at T3 in a dose-response fashion (subclinical psychosis expression once over T0–T2: odds ratio [OR] = 1.5 [95% confidence interval {CI} = 0.6–3.7], posttest probability [PP] = 5%; twice: OR = 5.0 [95% CI = 1.6–15.9], PP = 16%; at all 3 measurements: OR = 9.9 [95% CI = 2.5–39.8], PP = 27%). Of all clinical psychosis at T3, more than a third (38.3%) was preceded by subclinical psychotic experiences at least once and a fifth (19.6%) at least twice. Consequently, a significant proportion of psychotic disorder may be conceptualized as the rare poor outcome of a common developmental phenotype characterized by persistence of psychometrically detectable subclinical psychotic experiences. This may be summarized descriptively as a psychosis proneness-persistence-impairment model of psychotic disorder.

Aim: To examine prospectively over a period of 4 years the profile of cannabis dependence and the risk of specific dependence criteria in a community sample of adolescents. Methods: A representative community sample of 2446 young adults aged 14–24 years at baseline was followed up over a period of 4 years. Frequency of use measures and of criteria for DSM-IV dependence were assessed by standardized diagnostic interview measures (CIDI). To explore the nature of this association, frequency of use and concomitant use of other psychoactive substances was considered. Results: 30% of the sample were cannabis users. Among all users 35% met at least one dependence criterion. Most frequently reported dependence criteria among all users were withdrawal (17%), tolerance (15%), loss of control (14%) and continued use despite a health problem (13%). Even without concomitant use of other illicit drugs, 22% of low frequency users and 81% of high frequency users met at least one dependence criterion. Symptom patterns were similar in high and low frequency users. The occurrence of a dependence syndrome or of specific dependence criteria could not be attributed to the use of other illicit drugs or to comorbid nicotine and alcohol dependence. Conclusions: Regular cannabis use in adolescence is associated with the development of a dependence syndrome. This association cannot be explained by the concomitant use of other illicit substances or by comorbid nicotine and alcohol dependence.

Aim: To examine prospectively over a period of 4 years the profile of cannabis dependence and the risk of specific dependence criteria in a community sample of adolescents. Methods: A representative community sample of 2446 young adults aged 14–24 years at baseline was followed up over a period of 4 years. Frequency of use measures and of criteria for DSM-IV dependence were assessed by standardized diagnostic interview measures (CIDI). To explore the nature of this association, frequency of use and concomitant use of other psychoactive substances was considered. Results: 30% of the sample were cannabis users. Among all users 35% met at least one dependence criterion. Most frequently reported dependence criteria among all users were withdrawal (17%), tolerance (15%), loss of control (14%) and continued use despite a health problem (13%). Even without concomitant use of other illicit drugs, 22% of low frequency users and 81% of high frequency users met at least one dependence criterion. Symptom patterns were similar in high and low frequency users. The occurrence of a dependence syndrome or of specific dependence criteria could not be attributed to the use of other illicit drugs or to comorbid nicotine and alcohol dependence. Conclusions: Regular cannabis use in adolescence is associated with the development of a dependence syndrome. This association cannot be explained by the concomitant use of other illicit substances or by comorbid nicotine and alcohol dependence.

This study examined the hypothesis that developmental expression of psychometric risk in the form of subclinical psychotic experiences in the general population is usually transitory but in some instances may become abnormally persistent and progress to a clinical psychotic state. A prospective cohort study was conducted in a general population sample of 845 adolescents, aged 14–17 years, in Munich, Germany (Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology Study). Expression of psychosis was assessed 4 times (T0–T3) over a period of 8.4 years. Transition from subclinical psychosis at T0–T2 to clinical psychosis in terms of impairment at T3 was examined as a function of the level of prior persistence of subclinical psychosis (present never, once, twice, or thrice). The more the subclinical psychosis persisted over the period T0–T2, the greater the risk of transition to clinical psychosis at T3 in a dose-response fashion (subclinical psychosis expression once over T0–T2: odds ratio [OR] = 1.5 [95% confidence interval {CI} = 0.6–3.7], posttest probability [PP] = 5%; twice: OR = 5.0 [95% CI = 1.6–15.9], PP = 16%; at all 3 measurements: OR = 9.9 [95% CI = 2.5–39.8], PP = 27%). Of all clinical psychosis at T3, more than a third (38.3%) was preceded by subclinical psychotic experiences at least once and a fifth (19.6%) at least twice. Consequently, a significant proportion of psychotic disorder may be conceptualized as the rare poor outcome of a common developmental phenotype characterized by persistence of psychometrically detectable subclinical psychotic experiences. This may be summarized descriptively as a psychosis proneness-persistence-impairment model of psychotic disorder.