This dissertation consists of three essays that examine the impact of various trade policies on the extensive (new trading relationships) and intensive (increase in trade of existing relationships) margins of trade, whereas past studies have been limited to aggregate trade flows. An inquiry into the extensive and intensive margins of trade reveals that total aggregate trade masks the heterogeneous trade creating effect of policy variables. Furthermore, this dissertation also takes into account the econometric issues that have plagued the traditional empirical model that analyzes the impact of these policies on trade. The first chapter examines the impact of hosting and bidding for mega-events on exports. Rose & Spiegel (2011b) find that hosts and unsuccessful bidders (candidates) experience a similar positive impact on total aggregate exports. They attribute the Olympic effect to the signal a country sends when bidding to host the games. This chapter inquires whether this Olympic signal leads to new trading relationships or an increase in trade in existing relationships. The results indicate that only hosts (not candidates) experience a permanent increase in exports at the intensive margin. While hosting the Olympics is consistently correlated with a permanent deepening of existing trade relationships, it is at the expense of the number of trading relationships. The second chapter examines the impact of the World Trade Organization (WTO) membership on the extensive and intensive margin of imports. Accounting for several estimation issues that have plagued the literature, results indicate that the benefit of the WTO is realized entirely through the extensive margin. The results are in line with the literature that attributes WTO to reducing market uncertainty through tariff binds rather than reduction, thus increasing entry in the export market even when the applied protection is unchanged. The third chapter examines the impact of fiscal episodes (fiscal stimuli and consolidation) on the extensive and intensive margins of exports. The results indicate that fiscal consolidation leads to an increase in total exports, while a fiscal stimulus leads to a decrease in total exports. Furthermore, fiscal consolidation leads to an increase in exports solely through the extensive margin.

China has undergone significant urban growth and industrialization over the last 30 years and its incredible development continues to move ahead at an increasingly rapid pace. In terms of urban expansion, China has just recently surpassed the world’s average urbanization rate of 50%, as it moves its massive population from rural to urban areas at an astonishing speed. It’s massive population and fast urbanizing speed aside, China is also unique in terms of its socio-political system and historical-cultural context: it is a hybrid of government planning and market forces. Since it encompasses a large part of the global population and has had a vastly different urbanization experience than that of Western countries, around which most theories are based, studying China’s urbanization is an opportunity to contribute to the field of urban studies in an unprecedented manner. However, these differences also make it difficult to develop a comprehensive study of China’s urban system since the predominant theories in the field are best suited to Western cities. This research rises to this challenge by systematically studying the relationship between the socioeconomic and biophysical processes in the Chinese urban system to understand the interaction between human and physical factors, and the landscape patterns that result from these interactions. This complex urban system is examined using a hierarchical, top-down approach. At the highest level is a Macro-scale analysis of the national urban system, followed by a study of the regional urban system: the JingJinJi Metropolitan Area at the Meso-scale, and finally a Micro-scale examination with a focus on the city of Beijing. Since urban systems develop over both time and space, the urban system is analyzed spatio-temporally on all three levels. Research at the national scale is composed of two parts. First, the challenges and opportunities of China’s urban development since the foundation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 are investigated in a general context. The institutional barriers that impede the management and continuation of China’s urban development are also discussed. Rank-size Analysis and satellite images are used to present the structural transitions of city scaling and urban clusters. These changes come with a series of challenges that are also iterated and discussed. This is followed by an analysis of the spatial distribution and transition patterns of China’s urban system using Centrographic Analysis, particularly since the post-1979 reforms. Second, the Macro-scale research focuses on a study of the urban hierarchy that is based on inter-city interactions as determined by the Synthesized Gravity Model (SGM). Under this model socioeconomic variables are synthesized and represented by the Influential Factor, while the Function Distance is derived from a Network Analysis that is based on multiple transportation methods. As an improvement on the conventional Gravity Model (GM), the SGM is used to accurately establish and represent the nodal structure of China’s urban system, the evolution of its hierarchical structure, and the relationships that exist between the nodal structure and socioeconomic factors. The results based on the SGM indicate that China’s national urban system is characterized by the emergence of urban clusters with stronger inter-city interactions since the 1990s. However, development among cities within certain urban clusters is not even, although the general pattern indicates a lessening inequality among cities. Spatially, while most cities at the top of the hierarchy are located in the east of China, cities in the middle and west of the country are also gaining higher positions in the hierarchy over time. On the Meso-scale, the applicability of the Cellular Automata (CA)-based SLEUTH model for regional urban growth pattern is studied through a focus on the JingJinJi Metropolitan Area (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei). By integrating socioeconomic factors into a modified SLEUTH model, the urban growth dynamics and future development scenarios of the area are simulated and predicted. The results based on the CA model show that this region is characterized by a dynamic development pattern with high spreading and breeding growth rules that relies greatly on the growing transportation systems. It also allows for the projection of three possible future urban growth scenarios, each occurring under different environmental and development conditions, showing the future urban growth with or without further intervention. This research confirms that four factors play essential roles in the formulation of the urban growth mechanism of the JingJinJi Metropolitan Area: Urban policies, Industry restructuring, Rural-urban migration, and Reclassification of urban boundaries. The Micro-scale study of Beijing is conducted from two perspectives: the social and natural. The social aspect adopts the factorial ecology approach to identify the social landscape patterns and the factors that have shaped Beijing’s social space in 1990 and 2000. The social mosaic has experienced a significant change due to suburbanization, resulting in a more dynamic and complex internal structure since the 2000s. From a natural perspective, Beijing’s physical landscape patterns are extracted by processing remotely sensed images that have the same temporal span. The physical change through landscape metrics demonstrates that Beijing’s expansion has generated a more complex and fragmented land use/cover pattern. Meanwhile, transportation systems play a significant role in urban expansion, although the expansion across the space (zonal rings and directional sectors) is not even. Finally, the relationship between the social and physical landscapes is quantitatively defined by the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) technique, using physical landscape metrics as dependent variables and social areas as independent variables. The GWR is able to demonstrate the relationship between the social and physical landscapes at this level: as a city’s social mosaic becomes more varied over time it results in the fragmentation of that city’s physical space.

The cause and distribution of spatial variations in the mechanical properties of the continental lithosphere are fundamental questions for modern geology. In this study variations in long-term lithospheric rigidity have been investigated. These investigations used profile- and grid-based flexural models of the lithosphere’s response to geologically imposed topographic, or buried, loads. These models were constrained by topographic and gravity data allowing recovery of best fitting rigidity values. In Oman a Cretaceous ophiolite acts as a significant load on the continental crust. Flexural models along profiles orthogonal to the ophiolite strike show that the observed gravity data can be best modelled by an elastic beam with standard thickness (T_e) of 30 km. Along strike there is shown to be significant variation in the foreland shape and the observed gravity signal. This, it is proposed, relates to the complex tectonic processes which occurred as the ophiolite was obducted. The Himalayan foreland has been the focus of controversy over the recovered long-term rigidity of the continents, with recovered T_e values ranging from 40 to over 90 km. Both profile- and grid-based techniques show that T_e is high (>70 km) in the foreland region. Across the India-Eurasia collisional system as a whole T_e values are variable. Beneath the Tibetan plateau recovered values are generally low (<10 km), while the plateau margins are marked by regions of higher rigidity. Recovered T_e values across the Arabia-Eurasia collisional system range from over 60 km in the foreland region to close to zero beneath the high Zagros mountains. In the eastern part of the foreland, flexural models match the gravity data; however, they disagree with sediment thickness data for the material infilling the foreland. This discrepancy is interpreted in terms of de-coupling of the flexural lithosphere from the shallower crustal levels, caused by the presence of significant salt deposits in this region. Application of grid-based techniques to South America, North America and Europe recover a broad range of Te values from ∼0 to over 90 km. The low T_e values are explained in active orogenic belts in terms of current processes acting to weaken the lithosphere, and in the continental interiors as the relics of past orogenic events. High T_e values in the continental interiors correlate with ancient cratonic cores which have undergone little deformation since their formation in the Archean. This study shows that T_e variations have a critical influence on the development of large compressional orogenic belts. In the Himalayan and Andean orogens there is a correlation between the over-thrusting of the orogenic belt and high T_e foreland regions. Where lower T_e regions are seen, less over thrusting is apparent, and in the case of the India-Eurasia collisional system out-flow of lower crustal material may be occurring.

The aim of this thesis is to provide the assessment of trade-quality relationship for European Union. This thesis is beneficial as it answers the question if quality substantively affects traded volume and economic development in EU. Further, it should be helpful to decision making procedure concerning international trade as it identifies exported product characteristics which can lead to faster economic growth. This thesis verifies whether export sophistication positively influences traded volume in 27 members of the EU (Luxembourg is excluded due to limits in data) in year 2013. The most recent innovations in quality measurement and estimation technique, the quality index and two stages of gravity model of international trade are applied in this thesis to be the most accurate and up-to-date as possible. This thesis confirms that sophistication in EU presents significant factor of products and the rise in quality helps to more intensive trade and can result in faster economic growth. The result was checked for possible biases in two specifications, in single country and industry level estimations. The importance of quality for trade was supported in all these concretizations.

The aim of this thesis is to incorporate the effects of the indirect trade into the gravity model for Czech Republic. Using data from the recently released OECD-WTO TiVA database, a panel of 56 countries in 5 years between 1995 and 2009 is constructed. The traditional approach of estimating the log- linear form of the equation is questioned and in line with current academic research, the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood method is applied. The empirical analysis does not reveal any unambiguous effect of adjusting the gross exports for their foreign content; it rather confirms that Czech ex- ports are significantly driven by the demand for German exports and finds that they are the higher the greater is the share of services value added. Furthermore, it is found that the destination of Czech exports is not signif- icantly determined by target country's participation in global value chains. JEL Classification C13, C23, C67, F14, F60 Keywords gravity model, indirect trade, trade in value added, Czech Republic, Poisson regression, panel data Author's e-mail marek.wlazel@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail vsemerak@yahoo.com

This thesis investigates the question if the estimation of gravity model of in- ternational trade based on the logarithmic transformation of the model is ad- visable when panel data are employed for the estimation. We have derived theoretically that in the presence of heteroskedasticity the logarithmic trans- formation causes inconsistency of the estimated coefficients. According to the literature, we have recommended rather the Poisson pseudo maximum likeli- hood estimation technique for the empirical research of the gravity model. We have also provided an empirical analysis of Czech and German panel data sets based on the comparison of the performance of traditional and Poisson estima- tion approaches. This analysis confirrms Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation method as a more proper method for estimating the coefficients of the gravity equation.

Dans cette thèse, nous discutons la relation entre les exportations et l’IDE, et tentons de trouver une relation de long terme entre ces variables. Dans cette analyse, nous étudierons tout d’abord de manière empirique les déterminants des exportations et des l’IDE, à la fois au niveau micro et macro. Ceci nous permettra par la suite de détecter plus précisément la relation entre ces deux variables. Plus précisément, cette thèse comporte les points suivant : Au niveau micro (niveau de la firme), les multinationales sont susceptibles de mettre en œuvre les deux activités (exportations et IDE) pour servir les marchés étrangers, mais les choix stratégiques des multinationales permettent aussi de choisir entre exportations et IDE. Sur ce point, la productivité des entreprises multinationales ainsi que leurs autres caractéristiques ont un rôle crucial pour éclairer le mécanisme de choix entre les stratégies et la relation entre exportations et investissements. Ceci fera l’objet de la première partie qui proposera une application au cas français. Dans cette partie, nous distinguerons également les décisions stratégiques en fonction de la taille de l’entreprise (très grandes ou grandes entreprises françaises). Au niveau macro, nous chercherons à identifier les déterminants simultanés des exportations et des IDE. Pour se faire, un système gravitaire dynamique bivarié sera estimé afin d’éclairer le rôle de ces déterminants et la relation entre exportations et IDE. Ceci fera l’objet de la seconde partie, qui sera appliquée aux échanges entre la France et dix partenaires euro-méditerranéens. Le choix de ces pays s’appuie sur l’importance qu’ils revêtent dans les échanges français. Par ailleurs, l’absence de littérature appliquée à ces pays dans ce domaine constitue une motivation supplémentaire. / In this thesis, we discuss the relationship between exports and FDI, and we aim to find a long-term relationship between these variables. In the course of the thesis analysis, we study empirically the exports and FDI determinants, at macro and micro analysis. This allows us to detect precisely the relationship between the both variables. In other words, this thesis carry out the following points: at micro level (company level), the multinationals are likely to implement the two activities (exports and FDI) to serve the foreign market, but the multinationals strategic choice can also choose between exports and FDI. On this point, the productivity of the multinational corporations and their other characteristics have a crucial role to clarify the mechanism of the choice between strategies and the relationship between exports and FDI. In fact, this is the first empirical part, which is the first similar application on the French companies. In the part, we also distinguish between strategic decisions based on company on the company size (large, very large and both groups of French enterprises).At the macro level, we will seek to identify the simultaneous determinants of exports and FDI. To do so, a gravity system is estimated bivariate dynamic equations to illuminate the role of these determinants and the relationship between exports and FDI. This is the second empirical part, which is applied on the capital and goods exchange between France and ten Mediterranean partners. The choice of these countries based on their importance in French trade. Moreover, the lack of the literature applied to these countries in this area is extra motivation.

We present a method aimed at estimating global bilateral migration flows and assessing their determinants. We employ that fact that available net migration figures for a country are (nonlinear) aggregates of migration flows from and to all other countries of the world in order to construct a statistical model that links the determinants of (unobserved) migration ows to total net migration. Using simple specifications based on the gravity model for international migration, we find that migration flows can be explained by standard gravity model variables such as GDP differences, distance or bilateral population. The usefulness of such models is exemplified by combining estimated specifications with population and GDP projections in order to assess quantitatively the expected changes in migration flows to Europe in the coming decades. / Series: WWWforEurope

Les pays émergents dotés d’un marché dynamique sont devenus l’« espace » principal de la production automobile. Les pays développés restent les principaux exportateurs. Dans cette thèse nous mesurons la valeur des exportations théoriques des pays émergents par rapport aux paramètres (PIB, coûts d’échange) d’un modèle de gravité augmenté. Les exportations de voitures de la plupart des pays émergents risquent de stagner à cause de la faible économie de la connaissance et des coûts élevés d’échange dans ces pays. L’Iran a une opportunité pour augmenter ses exportations automobiles en améliorant la qualité de ses produits domestiques ou en construisant des plateformes exportatrices pour les FMN. Les exportations de la Turquie et du Mexique risquent de stagner à moins que le Mexique augmente ses exportations vers l’Europe et l’Asie, et que la Turquie améliore la valeur ajoutée de son industrie. Le véhicule électrique et la batterie lithium-ion incarnent l’avenir de l’industrie automobile. Il est prévu que la Chine et les États-Unis soient les principaux exportateurs de la batterie li-ion. Il est fort probable que les exportations américaines augmentent surtout vers les pays les plus avancés en matière des technologies de l’information et de la communication. / Emerging countries (EC) endowed with dynamic markets became the main automotive production area. Developed countries are still the main exporters. In this thesis, we measure the theoretical value of exports of EC based on the parameters (GDP, trade costs) of an augmented gravity model. The car exports of the majority of EC risk stagnation because of weak knowledge economy & high trade costs in these countries. Iran has an opportunity to increase its automotive exports under the condition of improving its domestic products and/or building export-platforms for global automakers. The exports of Turkey & Mexico risk stagnation unless Mexico increases its exports to Europe & Asia, and Turkey increases the added-value of its industry. Electric vehicles and lithium-ion batteries are the future of the automotive industry. China & the USA are expected to be the main exporters in the field of li-ion batteries. The growth of American batteries exports is highly probable notably to countries with advanced ICT infrastructure.

Internal migration has frequently been subject of empirical research. This study attempts to find a relationship between international immigration and internal out-migration in all German states, covering the time period between 1993 and 2016. The underlying theories were established by Card et al. (2008), Schlömer (2012), Florida (2002) and Chiswick and Miller (2015). These were used to develop a modified version of the gravity model. The dataset was received from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt). The regressions were executed using a fixed effects model and a pooled OLS as a robustness check. The empirical findings suggest no evidence of a statistically significant effect of international immigration on internal out-migration patterns in the covered period. Control variables suggest policymakers to focus on other factors when the effects of immigration policies on internal out-migration are being considered.