Telemetry triangulation provides an estimate of a radio-tagged animal’s location that is influenced by various time and site-specific factors that can cause errors. If these errors are not considered when using location data, the conclusions drawn about animal behavior such as habitat use might be misleading. I determined home range and habitat use and selection characteristics of red-shouldered hawks (Buteo lineatus) in central Maryland. The effects of telemetry triangulation errors on these characteristics were examined. Red-shouldered hawk location estimates were obtained by triangulation to radio-tagged birds. Point estimates were determined by using ≥3 azimuths. A confidence ellipse was calculated around each point estimate which represented the error area associated with that point estimate. From the distribution of possible points within the error area of each point estimate, sampled points (simulated points) were generated for use in additional analyses to assess telemetry error. Home range sizes, based on point estimates and simulated point estimates were delineated using the convex polygon and harmonic mean models. Habitat occurrence was described from a digitized cover type map. Average home range sizes based on point estimates and simulated point estimates for 3 male hawks were larger than average home range areas for 2 female hawks. There were differences detected between pooled point estimate home range sizes and the pooled simulated point estimate home range sizes. There were fewer differences in home range sizes based on the harmonic mean model than the convex polygon. No significant seasonal differences were found for point estimate or simulated point estimate home range Sizes. Seasonal habitat use did not vary based on pooled data from all hawks on PWRC. Bottomland forest was the most frequently used habitat type; however, water habitats (ponds and river) were the most frequently selected. Bottomland forests, river swamps, terrace/bluff forests, residential/structural areas, seepage swamps, pine forests, and pine/oak forests were selected occasionally by most hawks. The two most infrequently selected habitats were powerlines and upland oak forests. / Master of Science

La théorie des jeux évolutionnaires est un outil qui permet d’étudier l’évolution des stratégies dans une population composée d’un grand nombre d’agents qui interagissent d’une façon continue et aléatoire. Dans cette théorie, il y a deux concepts essentiels qui sont la stratégie évolutivement stable (ESS), et la dynamique de réplication. Une stratégie évolutivement stable est une stratégie, qui, si adoptée par toute la population,ne peut pas être envahie par une autre stratégie ”mutante” utilisée par une petite fraction de la population. Ce concept statique est un raffinement de l’équilibre de Nash, et il ne peut pas renseigner, par exemple, sur la durée du temps nécessaire pour que l’ESS élimine la stratégie mutante. La dynamique de réplication, originalement proposée par Hawk-Dove, est un modèle dynamique qui permet de prédire l’évolution de la fraction de chaque stratégie dans la population en fonction du temps, en réponse aux gains des stratégies et l’état de la population.Dans cette thèse, nous proposons dans une première partie une extension de la dynamique de réplication classique en y introduisant des délais hétérogènes et aléatoires.En effet, la plupart des phénomènes qui se produisent prennent un temps incertain avant d’avoir des résultats. Nous étudions l’effet de la distribution des délais sur la stabilité de l’ESS dans la dynamique de réplication et nous considérons les distributions uniforme, exponentielle, et Gamma (ou Erlang). Dans les cas des distributions uniforme et Gamma, nous trouvons la valeur critique de la moyenne à laquelle la stabilité de l’équilibre est perdue et des oscillations permanentes apparaissent. Dans le cas de la distribution exponentielle, nous montrons que la stabilité de l’équilibre ne peut être perdue,et ce pour toute valeur de la moyenne de la distribution. Par ailleurs, nous montrons que la distribution exponentielle peut affecter la stabilité de l’ESS quand une seule stratégie subit un délai aléatoire issu de cette distribution. Nous étudions également le cas où les délais sont discrets et nous trouvons une condition suffisante et indépendante des valeurs des délais pour la stabilité de l’équilibre. Dans tous les cas, nous montrons que les délais aléatoires sont moins risqués que les délais constants pour la stabilité de l’équilibre, vu que la valeur moyenne critique des délais aléatoires est toujours supérieure de celle des délais constants. En outre, nous considérons comme paramètre de bifurcation la moyenne de la distribution des délais et nous étudions les propriétés de la solution périodique qui apparait à la bifurcation de Hopf, et ce en utilisant une méthode de perturbation non linéaire. En effet, à la bifurcation de Hopf, une oscillation périodique stable apparait dont l’amplitude est fonction de la moyenne de la distribution. Nous déterminons analytiquement l’amplitude de l’oscillation au voisinage de la bifurcation de Hopf en fonction du paramètre de bifurcation et de la matrice des jeux dans les cas des distributions de Dirac, uniforme, Gamma et discrète, et nous appuyons nos résultats avec des simulations numériques. Dans une deuxième partie, nous considérons une population hétérogène composée de plusieurs communautés qui interagissent d’une manière non-uniforme. Pour chaque communauté, nous définissons les matrices des jeux et les probabilités d’interaction avec les autres communautés. Dans ce contexte, nous définissons trois ESS avec différents niveaux de stabilité contre les mutations: un ESS fort, un ESS faible et un ESS intermédiaire. Nous définissons un ESS fort comme suit: si toute la population adopte l’ESS, alors l’ESS ne peut pas être envahi par une petite fraction de mutants composée d’agents de toutes les communautés. / In this dissertation, we study evolutionary game theory which is a mathematical tool used to model and predict the evolution of strategies in a population composed of a largenumber of players. In this theory, there are two basic concepts which are the evolutionarilystable strategy (ESS) and the replicator dynamics. The ESS is originally definedas follows [1]: if all the population adopts the ESS, then no alternative strategy used bya sufficiently small fraction of the population can invade the population.The ESS is astatic concept and a refinement of a Nash equilibrium. It does not allow us, for example,to estimate the time required for the ESS to overcome the mutant strategy, neither to predictthe asymptotic distribution of strategies in the population. The replicator dynamics,originally introduced in [2], is a model of evolution of strategies according to which the growth rate of a given strategy is proportional to how well this strategy performs relative to the average pay off in the population.In the first part of this work, we propose an extended version of the replicator dynamics which takes into account heterogeneous random delays. Indeed, in many situations,the presence of uncertain delays is ubiquitous. We first consider continuous delays and we study the effect of the distribution of delays on the asymptotic stability of the mixed equilibrium in the replicator dynamics. In the case of uniform and Gamma delay distributions,we find the critical mean delay at which a Hopf bifurcation is created and the stability of the mixed equilibrium is lost. When the distribution of delays is exponential, we prove that the stability of the equilibrium cannot be affected by the delays. However, when only one strategy is delayed according to the exponential distribution,the asymptotic stability of the ESS can be lost. In all the cases, we show that the critical mean delay value is higher than that of constant delays, and thus random delays are less threatening than constant delays. In addition, we consider discrete delays and one o four results is that, when the instantaneous term is dominant, that is when the probabilityof zero delay is sufficiently high, the stability of the ESS cannot be lost.Furthermore, by taking as a bifurcation parameter the mean delay distribution, we examine the properties of the bifurcating periodic solution created near the Hopf bifurcationusing a nonlinear perturbation method. Indeed, near the Hopf bifurcation, a stable periodic oscillation appears whose amplitude depends on the value of the bifurcation parameter. We give a closed-form expression of the amplitude of the periodic solution and we validate our results with numerical simulations.In the second part, we consider an heterogeneous population composed of several communities which interact in a nonuniform manner. Each community has its own set of strategies, payoffs, and interaction probabilities. Indeed, individuals of a population have many inherent differences that favor the appearance of groups or clusters. In this scenario, we define three ESS with different levels of stability against mutations: strong,weak, and intermediate ESS, and we examine their connection to each other. A strongESS is a strategy that, when adopted by all the population, cannot be invaded by a sufficientlysmall fraction of mutants composed of agents from all the communities. Incontrast, a weak ESS is a strategy wherein each community resists invasion by a sufficientlysmall fraction of mutants in that community (local mutants). In the intermediateESS, the population adopting the ESS cannot be invaded by a small fraction of mutantswhen we consider the total fitness of the population rather than the fitness of eachcommunity separately.

Este estudo apresenta dados sobre a ecologia alimentar do gavião-do-rabo-branco (Buteo albicaudatus albicaudatus) no município de Juiz de Fora, sudeste do estado de Minas Gerais. Os objetivos específicos foram: a) estudar quantitativamente a dieta do gavião-do-rabo-branco, incluindo número de presas e biomassa consumida; b) analisar possíveis padrões de sazonalidade na dieta; c) determinar a amplitude de nicho trófico do gavião-do-rabo-branco; d) verificar a existência de possíveis respostas numéricas e funcionais na dieta desse gavião e e) verificar estatisticamente as prévias proposições de oportunismo na escolha de presas por esse predador sugeridas por Stevenson & Meitzen (1946), Farquhar (1986) e Kopeny (1988). O material para estudo da dieta do B. albicaudatus consistiu de pelotas de regurgitação, coletado simultaneamente com os dados de abundância dos principais grupos de presas e do predador na área de estudo. As 259 amostras analisadas revelaram 31 espécies/morfoespécies e uma biomassa total estimada de 7196,5 g. Cinco ordens de insetos (Hymenoptera, Heteroptera, Odonata, Isoptera e Lepidoptera) e uma de vertebrado (Chiroptera) são descritas pela primeira vez como integrantes da dieta de B. albicaudatus. Numericamente, os invertebrados representaram 88% da dieta, sendo Acrididae responsável por 63% da dieta total. Dentre os vertebrados, os roedores foram o grupo mais consumido (73% da classe e 8% da dieta total). Analisando-se as presas em relação à biomassa, verificou-se uma brusca inversão na maioria das espécies/morfoespécies. Nesta abordagem, os vertebrados corresponderam a 77% da dieta. Os grupos mais representativos são: roedores (50%), ortópteros (21%), aves (11%), lagartos (7%) e serpentes (5%). A análise de sazonalidade na dieta mostrou uma evidente dependência de consumo quanto à estação climática, em mais da metade das categorias. Na estação seca verifica-se um maior consumo de Araneomorphae, outros artrópodes e mamíferos, enquanto na estação chuvosa, o maior consumo foi registrado para Acrididae e Coleoptera. Aves e répteis, apesar de não apresentarem uma dependência significativa em relação à sazonalidade, parecem ser utilizados como complemento ao consumo de mamíferos na estação chuvosa, no que tange a biomassa ingerida. Buteo albicaudatus pode ser classificado como insetívoro, em termos de número, ou como carnívoro, em termos de biomassa ingerida. A amplitude trófica da dieta mostrou-se de intermediária para baixa, variando de acordo com a abordagem adotada. Em termos gerais, quanto ao número e a biomassa, a dieta total mostrou que o gavião-do-rabo-branco é especialista. No entanto, a análise da biomassa referente a cada estação climática revelou que na estação chuvosa, a dieta é intermediária entre generalista e especialista (Bp itens=0,292; Bp grupos=0,485). Esses dados indicam que tanto o consumo de determinados itens alimentares quanto a amplitude de nicho trófico pode variar de acordo com a estação climática. Comparando-se a abundância do principal grupo de presa (pequenos mamíferos), em termos de biomassa, no ambiente e os registros de B. albicaudatus percebe-se que em nove dos doze meses há uma sincronia nas flutuações, caracterizando uma resposta numérica (rs=0,864; p<< 0,001). Resposta funcional foi registrada para a ordem Orthoptera (rs=0,762; p<0,01) e para a família Acrididae (rs=0,706; p<0,05). Com relação à seletividade de espécies de presas, observou-se que dos 12 gêneros de pequenos mamíferos capturados por armadilhas de interceptação e queda no ambiente, apenas cinco (Calomys, Akodon, Oligoryzomys, Oxymycterus e Gracilinanus) fazem parte da dieta de B. albicaudatus. Em relação a estes gêneros, o gavião-do-rabo-branco apresentou seletividade para Calomys tener e rejeição para Akodon spp apenas na estação seca. Os dados apresentados neste estudo sugerem que a abundância de pequenos mamíferos pode determinar o comportamento seletivo ou oportunismo de B. albicaudatus. No período de maior oferta de recurso há uma seletividade enquanto, no período de menor abundância de alimento, há um oportunismo por parte do predador. Este estudo revelou que o gavião-do-rabo-branco possui uma flexibilidade em sua dieta.

As the amount of information available on the internet has increased sharply in the last years, methods for measuring and comparing text-based information is gaining popularity on financial markets. Text mining and natural language processing has become an important tool for classifying large collections of texts or documents. One field of applications is topic modelling of the minutes from central banks' monetary policy meetings, which tend to be about topics such as"inflation", "economic growth" and "rates". The central bank of Sweden is the Riksbank, which hold 6 annual monetary policy meetings where the members of the Executive Board decide on the new repo rate. Two weeks later, the minutes of the meeting is published and information regarding the future monetary policy is given to the market in the form of text. This information has before release been unknown to the market, thus having the potential to be market-sensitive. Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), an algorithm used for uncovering latent topics in documents, the topics in the meeting minutes should be possible to identify and quantify. In this project, 8 topics were found regarding, among other, inflation, rates, household debt and economic development. An important factor in analysis of central bank communication is the underlying tone in the discussions. It is common to classify central bankers as hawkish or dovish. Hawkish members of the board tend to favour tightening monetary policy and rate hikes, while more dovish members advocate a more expansive monetary policy and rate cuts. Thus, analysing the tone of the minutes can give an indication of future moves of the monetary policy rate. The purpose of this project is to provide a fast method for analysing the minutes from the Riksbank monetary policy meetings. The project is divided into two parts. First, a LDA model was trained to identify the topics in the minutes, which was then used to compare the content of two consecutive meeting minutes. Next, the sentiment was measured as a degree of hawkishness or dovishness. This was done by categorising each sentence in terms of their content, and then counting words with hawkish or dovish sentiment. The resulting net score gives larger values to more hawkish minutes and was shown to follow the repo rate path well. At the time of the release of the minutes, the new repo rate is already known, but the net score does gives an indication of the stance of the board.

Este estudo apresenta dados sobre a ecologia alimentar do gavião-do-rabo-branco (Buteo albicaudatus albicaudatus) no município de Juiz de Fora, sudeste do estado de Minas Gerais. Os objetivos específicos foram: a) estudar quantitativamente a dieta do gavião-do-rabo-branco, incluindo número de presas e biomassa consumida; b) analisar possíveis padrões de sazonalidade na dieta; c) determinar a amplitude de nicho trófico do gavião-do-rabo-branco; d) verificar a existência de possíveis respostas numéricas e funcionais na dieta desse gavião e e) verificar estatisticamente as prévias proposições de oportunismo na escolha de presas por esse predador sugeridas por Stevenson & Meitzen (1946), Farquhar (1986) e Kopeny (1988). O material para estudo da dieta do B. albicaudatus consistiu de pelotas de regurgitação, coletado simultaneamente com os dados de abundância dos principais grupos de presas e do predador na área de estudo. As 259 amostras analisadas revelaram 31 espécies/morfoespécies e uma biomassa total estimada de 7196,5 g. Cinco ordens de insetos (Hymenoptera, Heteroptera, Odonata, Isoptera e Lepidoptera) e uma de vertebrado (Chiroptera) são descritas pela primeira vez como integrantes da dieta de B. albicaudatus. Numericamente, os invertebrados representaram 88% da dieta, sendo Acrididae responsável por 63% da dieta total. Dentre os vertebrados, os roedores foram o grupo mais consumido (73% da classe e 8% da dieta total). Analisando-se as presas em relação à biomassa, verificou-se uma brusca inversão na maioria das espécies/morfoespécies. Nesta abordagem, os vertebrados corresponderam a 77% da dieta. Os grupos mais representativos são: roedores (50%), ortópteros (21%), aves (11%), lagartos (7%) e serpentes (5%). A análise de sazonalidade na dieta mostrou uma evidente dependência de consumo quanto à estação climática, em mais da metade das categorias. Na estação seca verifica-se um maior consumo de Araneomorphae, outros artrópodes e mamíferos, enquanto na estação chuvosa, o maior consumo foi registrado para Acrididae e Coleoptera. Aves e répteis, apesar de não apresentarem uma dependência significativa em relação à sazonalidade, parecem ser utilizados como complemento ao consumo de mamíferos na estação chuvosa, no que tange a biomassa ingerida. Buteo albicaudatus pode ser classificado como insetívoro, em termos de número, ou como carnívoro, em termos de biomassa ingerida. A amplitude trófica da dieta mostrou-se de intermediária para baixa, variando de acordo com a abordagem adotada. Em termos gerais, quanto ao número e a biomassa, a dieta total mostrou que o gavião-do-rabo-branco é especialista. No entanto, a análise da biomassa referente a cada estação climática revelou que na estação chuvosa, a dieta é intermediária entre generalista e especialista (Bp itens=0,292; Bp grupos=0,485). Esses dados indicam que tanto o consumo de determinados itens alimentares quanto a amplitude de nicho trófico pode variar de acordo com a estação climática. Comparando-se a abundância do principal grupo de presa (pequenos mamíferos), em termos de biomassa, no ambiente e os registros de B. albicaudatus percebe-se que em nove dos doze meses há uma sincronia nas flutuações, caracterizando uma resposta numérica (rs=0,864; p<< 0,001). Resposta funcional foi registrada para a ordem Orthoptera (rs=0,762; p<0,01) e para a família Acrididae (rs=0,706; p<0,05). Com relação à seletividade de espécies de presas, observou-se que dos 12 gêneros de pequenos mamíferos capturados por armadilhas de interceptação e queda no ambiente, apenas cinco (Calomys, Akodon, Oligoryzomys, Oxymycterus e Gracilinanus) fazem parte da dieta de B. albicaudatus. Em relação a estes gêneros, o gavião-do-rabo-branco apresentou seletividade para Calomys tener e rejeição para Akodon spp apenas na estação seca. Os dados apresentados neste estudo sugerem que a abundância de pequenos mamíferos pode determinar o comportamento seletivo ou oportunismo de B. albicaudatus. No período de maior oferta de recurso há uma seletividade enquanto, no período de menor abundância de alimento, há um oportunismo por parte do predador. Este estudo revelou que o gavião-do-rabo-branco possui uma flexibilidade em sua dieta.

Cricket umpiring is demanding. In today’s world where so much technology is available to television viewers, they expect perfect umpiring, forgetting that what they see on their television screens is not available to the umpires standing in the middle of the field making the decisions. This study aimed to examine cricket umpires on-field decisions during the 2007 ICC Cricket World Cup. Examining leg before wicket (LBW) and caught behind decisions, in particular. The researcher made use of a notational analysis program known as Umpirestat to collect the necessary data on each umpire. The umpires were examined in two groups Elite and International umpires (groupings defined by the ICC) and were compared to a base line in the form of Hawk-Eye for LBW decisions and TV replays for caught behind decisions. The umpire groups were compared to each other and then to the base line, an individual umpire comparison was then done within each grouping. The data was statistically analysed using percentages, chi squared and modelling for the Elite Umpires. For LBW decisions there was a difference of 2.02% between Elite and International umpires, showing a similarity between the two groups. The difference between Elite Umpires and Hawk-Eye was 18.83% and between International umpires and Hawk-Eye was 16.81%, showing difference between the three groups. It was found that there was a difference of 3.63% for caught behind decisions between Elite and International umpires, showing a similarity between the two groups. The difference between Elite Umpires and TV replays was 2.99% and between International umpires and TV replays there was 0.64%, showing similarities between the three groups. In conclusion, for LBW appeals there is a similarity between Elite and International umpire groupings however a difference exists between Hawk-Eye and both groupings of umpires. For the individual umpires LBW comparison the following was seen for the International umpires; no real conclusions could be drawn due to limited amounts of data collected on them. However, variances in individual performances were seen within the International umpire grouping. For Elite Umpires, it is clearly seen in the model that the umpires expected number of dismissals got closer together and almost group together at around four appeals. This indicates a strong consensus amongst umpires when dealing with four, five and six appeals during a match. This consensus is more pronounced for four and five appeals. In conclusion, for caught behind appeals there is a similarity between Elite and International umpires as well as a similarity between replays and both groups of umpires. For the individual umpires caught behind comparison the following was seen for the International umpires; as with the LBW results there was limited amount of data available for the caught behind results. Thus no real conclusions could be drawn for International umpire caught behind decisions, although when examining the percentage data, differences can be seen. For the individual umpires caught behind comparison the following was seen for the Elite Umpires, no consensus is seen between the umpires - they all appear to have different expected dismissals to one another. Copyright / Dissertation (MA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Biokinetics, Sport and Leisure Sciences / unrestricted

No description available.

I determined abundance, movement and activity patterns of the Red-tailed Hawk (Buteo jamaicensis jamaicensis, RTHA) in Río Abajo Forest, Puerto Rico and surrounding lands during 2003-2004. Captive-reared Puerto Rican Parrots (Amazona vittata, PRPA) are scheduled for release in Rio Abajo Forest in 2006. Annual density of RTHAs (0.90 RTHAs/km2) was similar to the Caribbean National Forest (CNF; 1.29 RTHAs/ km2). RTHAs annual survival was high (0.89), and birds maintained compressed territories around the Rio Abajo Forest. Home ranges were 91% smaller than estimates reported for CNF, yet similar to those in North America. Approximately 98.3% of RTHA locations occurred outside the Río Abajo Forest boundaries. RTHAs exhibited random macrohabitat use patterns in north-central Puerto Rico. However, within their home ranges, RTHAs selected fragmented habitats with high patch and edge density, and avoided large tracts of dense closed canopy forest. Encounters between RTHAs and PRPAs may increase as parrots venture beyond the boundaries of Rio Abajo Forest.

This study takes as its focus Ted Hughes’s composition techniques throughout his career, arguing that his self-conscious experimentation with the processes by which he wrote affected the style and subject matter of his work. Hughes’s poetry has lent itself to a number of familiar critical approaches, focusing on his preoccupation with mythology, his interaction with the natural world and his creative partnership with his first wife, Sylvia Plath. Yet no study, until now, has looked systematically at his literary drafts and the extent to which Hughes’s method of composition radically altered during his writing career. Archive material at Emory University, accessible since 2000, and new archive materials held at the British Library and made available for study for the first time in 2010, have opened up possibilities for much greater depth of research into Hughes’s writing processes and the birth and evolution of individual poems. By engaging with these materials, my research complements new studies which are tackling under-examined areas of Hughes’s work, whilst contributing more broadly to an increased awareness of the central importance of archival work in the study of literature. Literary manuscript drafts have often been used to study writers whose writing methods consciously foreground the drafting process. Whilst Hughes has not previously been considered in this light, my original investigations into his archival materials reveal a poet for whom the nature of the compositional process was a central concern which defines and redefines his poetry across his career.

No description available.