The process of modeling earthquake hazard risk and vulnerability is a prime component of mitigation planning, but is rife with epistemic, aleatory and factual uncertainty. Reducing uncertainty in such models yields significant benefits, both in terms of extending knowledge and increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of mitigation planning. An accurate description of the built environment as an input into loss estimation would reduce factual uncertainty in the modeling process. Building attributes for earthquake loss estimation and risk assessment modeling were identified. Three modules for developing the building attributes were proposed, including structure classification, building footprint recognition and building valuation. Data from primary sources and field surveys were collected from Shelby County, Tennessee, for calibration and validation of the structure type models and for estimation of various components of building value. Building footprint libraries were generated for implementation of algorithms to programmatically recognize two-dimensional building configurations. The modules were implemented to produce a building inventory for Shelby County, Tennessee that may be used effectively in loss estimation modeling. Validation of the building inventory demonstrates effectively that advanced technologies and methods may be effectively and innovatively applied on combinations of primary and derived data and replicated in order to produce a bottom-up, reliable, accurate and cost-effective building inventory.

[Truncated abstract] A number of controlled and natural seismic sources are utilised to model the Pwave velocity structure of the southwest of the Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia. The Yilgarn Craton is one of the largest pieces of Archaean crust in the world and is known for its gold and nickel deposits in the east and intraplate seismicity in the west. The aim of the project is to link 2D and 3D models of variations in seismic velocity with the local seismicity and geology. A new set of seismic refraction data, acquired in 25 overlapping deployments between 2002 and 2005, has been processed, picked and analysed using forward modelling. The data comprise two perpendicular traverses of three-component recordings of various delay-fired blasts from local commercial quarries. The data were processed using a variety of techniques. Tests were carried out on a number of data enhancement and picking procedures in order to determine the best method for enhancement of delay-fired data. A new method for automatic phase recognition is presented, where the maximum of the derivative of the rectilinearity of a trace is taken as the first break. Complete shot gathers with first break picks for each seismic source are compiled from the overlapping deployments. ... The starting 3D model was based on the models produced by 2D forward modelling. 14 iterations were carried out and the best-fit 3D model was achieved at the 10th iteration. It is 35% better then the current model used to locate earthquakes in this region. The resultant velocity block model was used to iii construct a density block model. A relative gravity map of the southwest of Yilgarn Craton was made. The results of 2D forward modelling, 3D tomography and forward gravity modelling have been compared and it was found that the HVZ is present in all models. Such a zone has been previously seen on a single seismic refraction profile, but it is the first time, this zone has been mapped in 3D. The gravity high produced by the zone coincides with the gravity high observed in reality. There is strong evidence that suggests that the HVZ forms part of the Archaean terrane boundary within the Yilgarn Craton. The distribution of the local seismicity was then discussed in the framework of the new 3D velocity model. A hypothesis, that the primary control on the seismicity in the study area is rotation of the major horizontal stress orientation, is presented. It is also argued that the secondary control on seismicity in the SWSZ is accommodation of movements along major faults.

Tee present research focuses on seismic hazard studies for the states of Tripura and Mizoram in the North-East India with taking into account the complex sesismotectonic characteristics of the region. This area is more prone to earthquake hazard due to complex subsurface geology, peculiar topographical distribution, continuous crustal deformation due to the under thrusting of Indian and the Eurasian plates, a possible seismic gap, and many active intraplate sources identified within this region. The study area encompasses major seismic source zones such as Indo Burmese Range (IBR), Shillong Plateau (SP), Eastern Himalayan arc (EH), Bengal Basin (BB), Mishmi Thrust (MT) and Naga Thrust (NT). Five historical earthquakes of magnitude Mw>8 have been listed in the study area and 15 events of magnitude Mw>7 have occurred in last 100 years. Indian seismic code BIS-1893-2002 places the study area with a high level of seismic hazard in the country (i.e. seismic zone V). More than 60% of the area is hilly steep-terrain in nature and the altitude varies from 0 to 3000 meters. Recent works have located a seismic gap, known as the Assam gap since 1950 between the EH, SP, and IBR with the Eurasian plate. Various researchers have estimated the return period, and a large size earthquake is expected in this region any time in future. The area is also highly prone to liquefaction, since rivers in Tripura (Gomati, Howrah, Dhalai, Manu, Bijay, Jeri, Feni) and the rivers in Mizoram (Chhimtuipui, Tlawng, Tut, Tuirial and Tuivawl etc.) are scattered throughout the study area where soil deposits are of sedimentary type. In 2011, both the states together have experienced 37 earthquakes (including foreshocks and aftershocks) with magnitudes ranging from 2.9 to 6.9. Of these events, there were 23 earthquakes (M>4) of magnitudes M6.4 (Feb 4th 2011), M6.7 (March 24th 2011), M6.9 (Sept.18th 2011), M6.4 (October 30th 2011), M6.9 (Dec 13th 2011), M5.8 (Nov 21st 2011), M5 (Aug 18th 2011), M4.9 (July 28th 2011), M4.6 (Dec 15th 2011), M4.6 (Jan 21st 2011), M4.5 (Dec 9th 2011), M4.5 (Oct 21th 2011), M4.5 (Oct 17th 2011), M4.5 (Sept 18th 2011), M4.3 (Oct 10th 2011), M4.3 (Sept 22nd 2011), M4.3 (April 4th 2011), M4.2 (Sept 9th 2011), M4.2 (Sept 18th 2011), M4.1 (April 29th 2011), M4.1 (Feb 22nd 2011), M4 (June 9th 2011), and M4 (Dec 2nd 2011) which occurred within this region [source: IMD (Indian Metrological Department), India]. The earthquake (M6.9) that occurred on Sept. 18th 2011 is known as the Sikkim earthquake, and it caused immense destruction including building collapse, landslides, causalities, disrupted connectivity by road damages and other infrastructural damages in Sikkim state as well as the entire North-East India. In the cities of Agartala and Aizawl of Tripura and Mizoram, construction of high rise building is highly restricted by the Government. Being the capital city, many modern infrastructures are still pending for growth of the city planning. Although many researchers have studied and reported about the status of seismicity in North-East Region of India, very few detailed studies have been carried out in this region except Guwahati, Sikkim and Manipur where almost the whole of the study area is highly vulnerable to severe shaking, amplification, liquefaction, and landslide. From the available literature, no specific study exists for Tripura and Mizoram till date. In the present research, seismic hazard assessment has been performed based on spatial-temporal distribution of seismicity and fault rupture characteristics of the region. The seismic events were collected from regions covering about 500 km from the political boundary of the study area. The earthquake data were collected from various national and international seismological agencies such as the IMD, Geological Survey of India (GSI), United State Geological Survey (USGS), and International Seismological Centre (ISC) etc. As the collected events were in different magnitude scales, all the events were homogenized to a unified moment magnitude scale using recent magnitude conversion relations (region specific) developed by the authors for North-East Region of India. The dependent events (foreshocks and aftershocks) were removed using declustering algorithm and in total 3251 declustered events (main shocks) were identified in the study area since 1731 to 2011. The data set contains 825 events of MW < 4, 1279 events of MW from 4 to 4.9, 996 events MW from 5 to 5.9, 131 events MW from 6 to 6.9, 15 events MW from 7 to 7.9 and 5 events MW ≥8. The statistical analysis was carried out for data completeness (Stepp, 1972). The whole region was divided into six seismic source zones based on the updated seismicity characteristics, fault rupture mechanism, size of earthquake magnitude and the epicentral depth. Separate catalogs were used for each zone, and seismicity parameters a and b were estimated for each source zone and other necessary parameters such as mean magnitude (Mmean), Mmax, Mmin, Mc and recurrence periods were also estimated. Toposheets/vector maps of the study area were collected and seismic sources were identified and characterized as line, point, and areal sources. Linear seismic sources were identified from the Seismotectonic atlas (SEISAT, 2000) published by the GSI, in addition to the source details collected from available literature and remote sensing images. The SEISAT map contains 43 maps presented in 42 sheets covering entire India and adjacent countries with 1:1million scale. Sheets representing the features of the study area were scanned, digitized and georeferenced using MapInfo 10.0 version. After this, tectonic features and seismicity events were superimposed on the map of the study area to prepare a Seismotectonic Map with a scale of 1:1million. In seismic hazard assessment, a state of art well known methodologies (deterministic and probabilistic) was used. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) procedure, hazard assessment is based on the minimum distance between sources to site considering the maximum magnitude occurred at each source. In hazard estimation procedure a lot of uncertainties are involved, which can be explained by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) procedure related to the source, magnitude, distance, and local site conditions. The attenuation relations proposed by Atkinson and Boore (2003), and Gupta (2010) are used in this analysis. Because in this region two type activities are mostly observed, regions such as SP, and EH are under plate boundary zone whereas IBR is under subduction process. These equations (GMPEs) were validated with the observed PGA (Peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. The hazard curves for all six major sources were prepared and compiled to get the total hazard curve which represents the cumulative hazard of all sources. Evaluation of PGA, Sa (0.2s and 1.0s) parameters at bedrock level were estimated considering a grid size of 5 km x 5 km, and spectral acceleration values corresponding to a certain level of probability (2% and 10%) were done to develop uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) for both the cities (Agartala and Aizawl). To carry out the seismic microzonation of Agartala and Aizawl cities, a detailed study using geotechnical and geophysical data has been carried out for site characterization and evaluation of site response according to NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazard Response Program) soil classifications (A, B, C, D, and E-type). Seismic site characterization, which is the basic requirement for seismic microzonation and site response studies of an area. Site characterization helps to have the idea about the average dynamic behavior of soil deposits, and thus helps to evaluate the surface level response. A series of geophysical tests at selected locations have been conducted using multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) technique, which is an advanced method to obtain direct shear wave velocity profiles from in situ measurements for both the cities. Based on the present study a major part of Agartala city falls under site class D, very few portions come under site class E. On the other hand, Aizawl city comes under site class C. Next, a detailed site response analysis has been carried out for both the cities. This study addresses the influence of local geology and soil conditions on incoming ground motion. Subsurface geotechnical (SPT) and geophysical (MASW) data have been obtained and used to estimate surface level response. The vulnerable seismic source has been identified based on DSHA. Due to the lack of strong motion time history of the study area, synthetic ground motion time histories have been generated using point source seismological model (Boore 2003) at bedrock level based on fault rupture parameters such as stress drop, quality factor, frequency range, magnitude, hypocentral distance etc. Dynamic properties such as the shear modulus (G) and damping ratios (ζ) have been evaluated from the soil properties obtained from SPT bore log data collected from different agencies such as PWD (Public works Department), and Urban Development Dept. of the State Government, in situ shear wave velocity has been obtained from MASW survey in different locations, and following this, a site response analysis has been carried out using SHAKE-2000 to calculate the responses at the ground surface in combination of different magnitudes, distances and epicentral depth for a particular site class. An amplification factor was estimated as the ratio of the PGA at the ground surface to the PGA at bedrock level, a regression analysis was carried out to evaluate period dependant site coefficients, and hence, the period dependant hazard impact on the ground surface could be calculated to obtain the spatial variation of PGA over the study area. Further, liquefaction potential of the site (Agartala) was also evaluated using available SPT bore log data collected and using presently estimated surface level PGA. The results are presented in the form of liquefaction hazard map representing as a Factor of safety (FS) against liquefaction with various depths such as 1.5m, 10m, and 15m respectively. It has been seen that Agartala city shows highly prone to liquefaction even up to 15 m depth. Hence, site specific study is highly recommended for implementing any important project. The liquefaction hazard assessment could not be conducted for the Aizawl city because of non availability of the SPT-N data, however, the city stands on hills/mountains, and therefore, such a study is not applicable in this area. Further, seismic microzonation maps for both the cities have been prepared considering Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) which support to the Eigen value properties of the system. Two types of hazard maps have been developed, one using deterministic and another using the probabilistic seismic microzonation maps. These maps can be directly used as inputs for earthquake resistant design, and disaster mitigation planning of the study area. However, an investigation has also been made in forecasting a major earthquake (Mw>6) in North-East India using several probabilistic models such as Gamma, Weibull and lognormal models. IBR and EH show a high probability of occurrences in the next 5 years (i.e. 2013-2018) with >90% probability.

Foodbome disease outbreaks have a tremendous impact on society, including foodbome illnesses, hospitalizations, lost work time, and deaths. These food-safety events have a significant influence in shaping consumers' perception of risk. Outbreaks of foodbome illnesses also have an effect on the development of public health policy. Due to these safety-related uncertainties in the food supply chain, various regulatory, safety, and health policies are implemented to decrease harm to potential victims. The total effect of such food-safety policies looked at in terms of reduction of foodbome illness, mortality, and food-related diseases may possibly be smaller than the forecasted effect because of failure to consider offsetting behavior. Attenuation and possibly reversal of the direct policy effect on expected injuries may arise because of offsetting behavior. This study combines both theoretical and empirical models to test the presence of dominant or partial offsetting behavior (OB) in the preparation and consumption of vegetables if a food-safety policy such as the Pathogen Reduction/Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (PR/HACCP) is mandated in the vegetable sector. Our findings indicate that food-safety information that has an effect on outrage and locus of control, both factors which have an effect on consumers' perception of risk, will lead consumers to become lax in response to this food-safety policy.

One of the most difficult tasks towards designing earthquake resistant structures is the determination of critical earthquakes. Conceptually, these are the ground motions that would induce the critical response in the structures being designed. The quantification of this concept, however, is not easy. Unlike the linear response of a structure, which can often be obtained by using a single spectrally modified ground acceleration history, the nonlinear response is strongly dependent on the phasing of ground motion and the detailed shape of its spectrum. This necessitates the use of a suite (bin) of ground acceleration histories having phasing and spectral shapes appropriate for the characteristics of the earthquake source, wave propagation path, and site conditions that control the design spectrum. Further, these suites of records may have to be scaled to match the design spectrum over a period range of interest, rotated into strike-normal and strike-parallel directions for near-fault effects, and modified for local site conditions before they can be input into time-domain nonlinear analysis of structures. The generation of these acceleration histories is cumbersome and daunting. This is especially so due to the sheer magnitude of the data processing involved. The purpose of this thesis is the development and documentation of PC-based computational tools (hereinafter called EQTools) to provide a rapid and consistent means towards systematic assembly of representative strong ground motions and their characterization, evaluation, and modification within a performance-based seismic design framework. The application is graphics-intensive and every effort has been made to make it as user-friendly as possible. The application seeks to provide processed data which will help the user address the problem of determination of the critical earthquakes. The various computational tools developed in EQTools facilitate the identification of severity and damage potential of more than 700 components of recorded earthquake ground motions. The application also includes computational tools to estimate the ground motion parameters for different geographical and tectonic environments, and perform one-dimensional linear/nonlinear site response analysis as a means to predict ground surface motions at sites where soft soils overlay the bedrock. While EQTools may be used for professional practice or academic research, the fundamental purpose behind the development of the software is to make available a classroom/laboratory tool that provides a visual basis for learning the principles behind the selection of ground motion histories and their scaling/modification for input into time domain nonlinear (or linear) analysis of structures. EQTools, in association with NONLIN, a Microsoft Windows based application for the dynamic analysis of single- and multi-degree-of-freedom structural systems (Charney, 2003), may be used for learning the concepts of earthquake engineering, particularly as related to structural dynamics, damping, ductility, and energy dissipation. / Master of Science

<p>Although traditional hazard analysis techniques, such as failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA), and fault tree analysis (FTA) have been used for a long time, they are not well-suited to handling modern systems with complex software, human-machine interactions, and decision-making procedures. This is mainly because traditional hazard analysis techniques rely on a direct cause-effect chain and have no unified guidance to lead the hazard analysis. The Systems Theoretic Accident Model and Process (STAMP) is based on systems theory to try to find out as much as possible about the factors involved in a hazard, and with providing clear guidance as to the control structure leading to the hazard.</p> <p>The Darlington Nuclear Power Generating Station was the first nuclear plant in the world in which the safety shutdown systems are computer controlled. Although FTA and FMEA have already been applied to these shutdown systems, Ontario power generation felt that it is still useful to try recent advances to evaluate whether they can improve on the previous hazard analysis.</p> <p>This thesis introduces the two most common traditional techniques of hazard analysis, FTA and FMEA, as well as two systemic techniques, STPA (which is a hazard analysis method associated with STAMP), and the Functional Resonance Accident Model (FRAM). The thesis also explains why we chose STPA to apply to the Darlington Shutdown System case, and provides an example of the application as well as an evaluation of its use compared with FMEA and FTA.</p> / Master of Applied Science (MASc)

[Truncated abstract] The southwest of Western Australia is an intraplate area classified as a stable continental region. It comprises predominantly Archaean and Proterozoic geology and has generally subdued topography. The region currently experiences significant seismicity in the Southwest Seismic Zone (SWSZ), which is one of the most seismically active areas in Australia and is thought to represent the highest seismic hazard of the region. In recent years, numerous scarps, potentially related to large palaeoearthquakes have been recognised not only within the SWSZ, but also in a broader region of the southwest of Australia. Palaeoseismological investigations of two of these scarps, the Dumbleyung and the Lort River scarps, confirm their association with surface-rupturing palaeoearthquakes and indicate events with likely maximum magnitudes of ~Mw 7.0 on faults of low to medium slip rates. Two trenches across the Dumbleyung Fault scarp revealed a thrust fault in alluvial sediments with two associated earthquakes in the last ca 24-60 ka. A possible Holocene age was recognised for the last recorded earthquake event exposed in these trenches. Two trenches across the Lort River Scarp show that this feature results from thrust faulting in the weathered gneissic country rock. These trenches exposed evidence of two events in the last ca 35 ka, with a likely late Pleistocene age for the last earthquake. On both sites, the earthquakes are interpreted as associated with the last phase of fault activity, which was likely been preceded by a long period of quiescence. Assessment of the earthquake hazard associated with large earthquakes at the Dumbleyung and Lort River Faults resulted in calculated peak ground accelerations of up to 2 g in the near-fault fields. Such earthquakes would significantly affect nearby towns such as Dumbleyung, Wagin, Katanning, and Esperance, but they are unlikely to cause any significant damage in Perth. The palaeoseismological investigations show that the earthquake activity in the southwest of Western Australia is not only confined to the SWSZ, as it has been considered in previous assessments of the seismic hazard, but that there is also potential for strong earthquakes across much of the region. The seismicity in the southwest of Western Australia appears to be transient and migratory. This is suggested by the lack of local relief associated with places of current seismicity and fault scarps, the widespread distribution of the fault scarps across the region, the increase in seismicity in the SWSZ following strong recent events, and the apparent long periods of earthquake recurrence at fault sites. Accordingly, the current seismicity in the SWSZ is inferred to be transient and probably associated with stress changes produced by the recent earthquakes. '...' This uplift could be associated with dynamic topography effects resulting from processes along the plate margins. The uplift is probably enhanced by a flexural response of the lithosphere to local differential loads and density contrast along the southern margin, a mechanism that may also help explain the occurrence of some earthquake activity. The results from this study, complemented by additional palaeoseismological studies must be included in future probabilistic assessments of the seismic hazard of the southwest of Western Australia.

This Master´s thesis is focused on the proposition of system HACCP as appropriate solution incurred complaint. I start from the theoretical bases and from analysis of the current state in the company Cutisin s.r.o. The particular part is included hazard analysis of single step of the process plan, critical control points in production, precautionary measures and corrective action.