Coastal storm surges from hurricanes are one of the most costly natural disasters in the United States (US). Current research arguably indicates a mean sea-level (MSL) increase due to global warming, as well as an increase in damages caused by hurricanes under climate change. The objectives of this research are: 1) to develop a framework that integrates Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with hurricane storm surge numerical models; 2) to quantify the uncertainty derived from coastal land cover spatial data on hurricane storm surge; and 3) to investigate the potential impacts of SLR changes on land cover to hurricane storm surge and coastal damages. Numerical analysis is an important tool for predicting and simulating storm surges for coastal structure design, planning and disaster mitigation. Here we proposed a framework to integrate Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models used to simulate hurricane storm surge. The geodatamodel "Arc StormSurge" is designed to store geospatial information for hurricane storm surge modeling and GIS tools are designed to integrate the high performance computing (HPC) input and output files to GIS; pre-process geospatial data and post-process model results, thereby, streamlining the delineation of coastal flood maps. Georeferenced information of land cover is used to define the frictional drag at the sea bottom and to infer modifications to the momentum transmitted to the water column by the winds. We investigated uncertainties in the surge response arising from land cover for Texas central bays considering several land cover datasets. The uncertainties were quantified based on the mean maximum surge response and inundated area extent. Considering projected SLR, wetland composition and spatial distribution are also expected to change with coastal environmental conditions. Our results showed that wetland degradation by SLR increased the mean maximum surge for coastal bays. Direct damage to buildings and businesses was also significantly increased by the loss of wetlands due to SLR. Here, we demonstrated the importance of considering the effects of land cover and SLR to hurricane storm surge simulations for coastal structure design, floodplain delineation or coastal planning.

Coastal forest retreat in the Florida Keys during the 20th century has been attributed to a combination of sea level rise and hurricane storm surge impacts, but the interactions between these two disturbances leading to forest decline are not well understood. The goal of my research was to assess their effects over a period spanning more than two decades, and to examine the relationships between these press and pulse disturbances and freshwater availability in pine rockland, hardwood hammock, and supratidal scrub communities. Impacts and recovery from two storm surges, Hurricanes Georges (1998) and Wilma (2005), were assessed with satellite-derived vegetation indices and multiple change detection techniques. Impacts were greater at lower elevations, and in hardwood hammock, spectral signatures indicative of plant stress and productivity returned to pre-disturbance levels within a few years. In pine rockland, impacts were predominately related to Hurricane Wilma, however, a similar return to pre-disturbance conditions was absent, suggesting that trajectories of disturbance recovery differed between the two communities. Long-term monitoring of forest composition, structure, and groundwater salinity showed that compositional shifts in the low shrub stratum were associated with salinization of the freshwater resource attributable to sea level rise. Throughout the course of twelve months of climate and groundwater monitoring (2011-2012), groundwater salinity generally decreased in response to large precipitation events. Modeling of geophysical data indicated that groundwater salinity was an important predictor of community type. Isotopic analysis of d18O in plant stem water and foliar d13C was used to determine temporal and spatial patterns in water use and plant stress in two community dominants, slash pine, Pinus elliottii var. densa, and buttonwood, Conocarpus erectus. Both species relied heavily on groundwater, and plant stress was related to increasing groundwater salinity. The results of this work suggest that the interaction of press and pulse disturbances drive changes in community composition by causing mortality of salt-sensitive species and altering the freshwater resource.