Kuba har i dagsläget ett högt beroende av importerad olja, för att tillgodose sin växande efterfrågan på elektricitet. Importen sker främst från Venezuela. Detta beroende gör Kuba känsligt för ändringar i oljepriser samt det politiska klimatet. Den nuvarande krisen i Venezuela har haft en betydande inverkan på Kubas elproduktion. Genom att utöka landets förnybara energikällor kan Kuba minska sitt beroende av andra länder och diversifiera sin energiförsörjning. Detta kommer även att leda till en positiv miljöpåverkan då landets CO 2-utsläpp minskar. Kubas geografiska läge har ideala förhållanden för förnyelsebar energigenerering, så som solkraft. Solkraft utvecklas konstant och innehåller en hög potential. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) är en teknologi där speglar och/eller linser används för att koncentrera solljus till en liten yta som konverterar solljuset till värme. Denna värme kan sedan användas i termodynamiska cykler. Det finns två huvudsakliga problem med implementering av CSP på Kuba. För det första är CSP beroende av momentana väderförhållanden, vilket leder till en oregelbunden elproduktion. För det andra har CSP höga investeringskostnader. För att adressera dessa problem, är det möjligt att implementera CSP i ett redan existerande kraftverk med regelbunden energikälla, d.v.s. skapa ett hybridkraftverk. På så vis uppnås regelbunden elproduktion med signifikant lägre investeringskostnad. Ett sådant existerande kraftverk kan hittas hos många av Kubas sockerbruk. Den här studien undersöker möjligheten att implementera solkraft i sockerbruket Carlos Baliño, beläget i Villa Clara, Kuba. Fabriken är självförsörjande av elektricitet på årlig basis. De använder en Rankine-cykel för att generera el och processvärme som används i sockerframställningen. Bränslet som används är bagasse, en restprodukt efter att sockerjuicen pressats ut ur sockerrören. Fyra CSP-teknologier och tre implementeringslayouts undersöktes, vilket resulterade i att parabolic trough-teknologin och förvärmning av vatten ansågs vara de bästa alternativen för Kuba och Carlos Baliño. Vidare undersöktes två olika scenarier för CSP. Scenario 1 innefattar implementering av CSP i sockerbruket under rådande skick och Scenario 2 består av implementering av CSP efter en investering gjorts i en Condensing Extraction turbin (CEST). Resultatet visar att Carlos Baliño bör investera i CEST innan de implementerar CSP, det vill säga Scenario 2. Detta beror på att i scenario 1 är det inte möjligt att generera elektricitet utanför sockersäsongen, vilket leder till att en stor del av solpotentialen inte kan utnyttjas. Den maximala investeringskostnaden för scenario 1 är 3,7 MUSD, vilket inte är en realistisk kostnad. Den maximala investeringskostnaden för scenario 2 beror av tillgänglig bagasseimport och är 5,9 – 7,2 MUSD. Att investera i CSP rekommenderas ej om bagasseimporten är obegränsad. Givet att bagasseimporten är begränsad skulle CSP-implementeringen leda till en utökad elproduktion av 5,4 – 7,2 GWh/år, en årlig minskning av oljeanvändandet med 16 100 – 21 800 tunnor och minskade CO2-utsläpp med 12 00-16 00 ton årligen. Carlos Baliños ekonomiska resultat skulle öka med 0,5 MUSD/år och den kubanska statens med 0,7 – 0,9 MUSD/år. Framtida studier rekommenderas undersöka möjligheten till generering av el året runt vid Carlos Baliño utan en CEST, solkraftsefterfrågan på nationell nivå och potentiella utvecklingar av solkraft hos Carlos Baliño. / Cuba is currently highly dependent on imported oil, mainly from Venezuela, to meet their growing electricity demand. This dependence makes Cuba sensitive to changes in oil price as well as the political climate. The current crisis in Venezuela has a large impact on Cuba’s electricity generation. By expanding its renewable energy sources Cuba could decrease their dependence on other countries and diversify their energy supply. Moreover, it would have a positive climate impact by reducing the country’s CO2-emissions. Geographically, Cuba has ideal conditions for renewable energy utilization, such as solar power. Solar energy is constantly progressing and is considered a great source of energy. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is a technology which applies mirrors and/or lenses to concentrate the sunlight onto a small area which converts the sunlight into heat, possible to use in a thermodynamic cycle. There are mainly two problems with the implementation of CSP in Cuba. Firstly, CSP is a non-dispatchable power generating system since it is dependent on the instantaneous weather conditions. Secondly, it has high investment costs. One way of solving these problems is by implementation CSP in an already existing power plants with a dispatchable source of energy, making it a hybrid power plant. Accordingly, the hybrid power plant would be dispatchable and the investment costs would be significantly lower. Existing power plants can be found in Cuban sugar mills. This study investigates the possibility to implement solar power in the sugar mill Carlos Baliño, located in Villa Clara, Cuba. The factory is currently self-sufficient electricity wise on a yearly basis, using a co-generation Rankine cycle to generate electricity and process heat used in the sugar production. The fuel used is bagasse, a rest product obtained after the sugar juice has been pressed out of the sugar canes. Four CSP-technologies and three implementation layouts were examined, resulting in the parabolic trough-technology and feedwater heating being considered the optimal solution. Furthermore, two different scenarios for CSP was investigated; implementation of CSP in the mill at the current state (scenario 1) or after investing in a Condensing-Extraction Turbine (CEST) (scenario 2). The results show that Carlos Baliño should invest in a CEST before considering implementation of CSP. Off-season operation is not available for scenario 1, leading to a vast amount of solar potential being unexploited. The maximal investment allowed for scenario 1 is 3.7 MUSD, which is not a realistic number. The maximal investment allowed for in scenario 2 is 5.9 – 7.2 MUSD, depending on bagasse import availability. If bagasse import is unlimited, it is not recommended to invest in solar power. Implementation of CSP in scenario 2 regarding bagasse import limits would yearly lead to an additional electricity generation at Carlos Baliño of 5.4 – 7.3 GWh, decrease the oil usage with 16,100 – 21,800 barrels and the CO2-emissons with 1,200 – 1,600 tonnes. Carlos Baliño’s annual yield would increase with 0.5 – 0.6 MUSD/year and the Cuban states annual yield would increase with 0.7 – 0.9 MUSD/year. Future work is recommended to explore alternatives to all year-around electricity generation in Carlos Baliño without investing in a CEST, investigate solar power demand on a national level, and examine possible developments of the suggested solar field, for instance solar-only operation.

Remote hybrid power systems (RHPS) serve local off-grid loads or various island grids when no grid extension is possible. They combine renewable resources, conventional generators and energy storage systems in order to balance the load at any moment, while ensuring power quality and energy security similar to large centralized grids. Modelling such a complex system is crucial for carrying out proper simulations for predicting the system’s behavior and for optimal sizing of components. The model should include an estimation of the renewable resource availability over the period of the simulation, a prediction of the load consumption and time variation, the choice of technologies, a prior dimensioning approach, an energy dispatching strategy between the components and, finally, the behavioral model of all components. This study limits its scope to the simulation of a RHPS composed of solar PV panels, a diesel generator set, and a Li-ion battery bank supplying a dynamic isolated load with a daily demand variation between 10 kW and 80 kW. Methods for building load scenarii are explained first and then, rules of thumbs for selecting the technologies and pre-sizing the components are reviewed. Commonly used dispatching strategies are described before detailing the algorithm of a Matlab behavioral model for the system’s components with an emphasis on the proper prediction of performance and aging for the Li-ion battery model. Finally, a 10-year simulation is carried out over a case study and the results are analyzed.

[pt] Apesar do papel relevante do hidrogênio verde no caminho para a neutralidade climática, seu mercado ainda é incipiente, especialmente devido ao seu alto custo de produção em comparação ao hidrogênio cinza. Para reduzir custos no curto prazo, é necessária uma seleção ótima de portfólio, considerando a rede como um backup, para atingir um fornecimento de eletricidade mais barato e estável. Outros aspectos podem ajudar a reduzir custos, como flexibilidade de demanda, redução de riscos percebidos e implementação de armazenamento de hidrogênio. Para testar e analisar o impacto desses aspectos nos custos de produção de hidrogênio e no design do projeto, um modelo de otimização foi desenvolvido e implementado na linguagem de programação Julia. Usando o modelo, foi possível concluir que o uso da rede como backup tem o impacto mais relevante no custo nivelado de hidrogênio (LCOH), reduzindo-o de 6,4 USD/kg no caso de referência para 4 USD/kg. No entanto, a possibilidade de usar a rede e ainda cumprir a regulamentação europeia para RFNBO estará em risco se a participação de energia gerada com combustíveis fósseis aumentar no sistema elétrico brasileiro. Sem a possibilidade de usar a rede, os projetos brasileiros de hidrogênio precisarão adotar outros métodos de flexibilidade e aversão ao risco para reduzir o LCOH e ainda manter uma possível posição no mercado internacional de hidrogênio. / [en] Despite the relevant role of green hydrogen in the pathway to net zero, its market is still developing, mainly due to its high production cost compared with gray hydrogen. An optimal portfolio selection, considering the grid as a backup, is needed to achieve a cheaper and more stable electricity supply and, thus, reduce costs in the short term. Other aspects can help reduce costs, such as demand flexibility, reduction of perceived risks, and the implementation of hydrogen storage. An optimization model was developed and implemented in Julia programming language to test and analyze the impact of these aspects on hydrogen production costs and project design. Using the model, it was possible to conclude that the usage of the grid as a backup has the most relevant impact on the levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH), reducing it from 6.4 USD/kg in the reference case to 4 USD/kg. However, the possibility of using the grid while still complying with the European regulation for RFNBO will be at risk if the share of electricity produced using fossil fuel increases in the Brazilian power matrix. Without the possibility of using the grid, Brazilian hydrogen projects will need to adopt other flexibility and risk aversion methods to reduce the LCOH and still maintain a possible position in the international hydrogen market.