No description available.

No description available.

Anthropogenic climate change will impact Virginia's hydrologic processes in unforeseen ways in the coming decades. This research describes variability in meteorology (temperature and precipitation) and associated hydrologic processes (evapotranspiration) throughout an ensemble of 31 general circulation models (GCMs) used by the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP). Trends are compared with surface runoff generation patterns for a variety of land uses to investigate climate's effect on runoff generation. Scenarios representing pairings of the tenth, fiftieth, and ninetieth percentiles of precipitation and temperature in the CBP 31-model ensemble were run through VADEQ's VA Hydro hydrologic model to investigate streamflow's response to climate. Temperature changes across the study area were minimized in the tenth percentile scenario (+1.02 to +1.24◦C) and maximized in the ninetieth (+2.20 to +3.02◦C), with evapotranspiration change following this trend (tenth: +2.84 to +3.81%; ninetieth: +6.53 to +10.2%). Precipitation change ranged from -10.9 to -7.30% in the tenth to +22.1 to +28.0% in the ninetieth. Runoff per unit area was largely dependent on land use, with the most extreme changes in runoff often seen in forested and natural land uses (-24% in tenth; +53% in ninetieth) and the least extreme seen in impervious and feeding space land(tenth: -11%; ninetieth: +30%). Both overall runoff per unit area and streamflow changed drastically from the base in the tenth (-20.4% to -25.9% change in median runoff; -19.8% to -27.1% change in median streamflow) and ninetieth (+30.4% to +53.7% change in median runoff; +33.0% to +77.8% change in median streamflow) percentile scenarios. / Master of Science / Human-caused climate change will impact Virginia's hydrologic processes in unforeseen ways in the coming decades. This research describes variability in meteorology (temperature and precipitation) and associated hydrologic processes (evapotranspiration) throughout an ensemble of 31 general circulation models (GCMs) used by the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP). Trends are compared with surface runoff generation patterns for a variety of land uses to investigate climate's effect on runoff generation. Scenarios representing pairings of the tenth, fiftieth, and ninetieth percentiles of precipitation and temperature in the CBP 31-model ensemble were run through VADEQ's VA Hydro hydrologic model to investigate streamflow's response to climate. Temperature changes across the study area were minimized in the tenth percentile scenario (+1.02 to +1.24◦C) and maximized in the ninetieth (+2.20 to +3.02◦C), with evapotranspiration change following this trend (tenth: +2.84 to +3.81%; ninetieth: +6.53 to +10.2%). Precipitation change ranged from -10.9 to -7.30% in the tenth to +22.1 to +28.0% in the ninetieth. Runoff per unit area was largely dependent on land use, with the most extreme changes in runoff often seen in forested and natural land uses (-24% in tenth; +53% in ninetieth) and the least extreme seen in impervious and feeding space land(tenth: -11%; ninetieth: +30%). Both overall runoff per unit area and streamflow changed drastically from the base in the tenth (-20.4% to -25.9% change in median runoff; -19.8% to -27.1% change in median streamflow) and ninetieth (+30.4% to +53.7% change in median runoff; +33.0% to +77.8% change in median streamflow) percentile scenarios.

Low Impact Development (LID) is gaining popularity as a solution to erosion, flooding, and water quality problems that stormwater ponds partially address. LID analysis takes a spatially lumped approach, based on maintaining the predevelopment Curve Number and time of concentration, precluding consideration of the spatial distribution of impervious areas and Integrated Management Practices (IMP's), runoff-runon processes, and the effects of land grading. Success is thus dependent on the accuracy of the assumption of watershed uniformity, applied to both land cover distribution and flow path length. Considering the cost of long-term paired watershed monitoring, continuous, spatially-distributed hydrologic modeling was judged a better method to compare the response of LID, forest, and conventional development. Review of available models revealed EPA-SWMM 4.4H as the most applicable to the task. A 4.3-acre subwatershed of a local subdivision was adapted to LID using impervious surface disconnection, forest retention, and IMPs. SWMM was applied to the LID development at a fine spatial scale, yielding an 80-element SWMM model. The LID model was modified to reflect conventional development, with gutters, storm sewer, and detention. A predevelopment forest model was also developed. Two parameter sets were used, representing a range of assumptions characterized as favorable or unfavorable toward a particular development form. Modeled scenarios included favorable and unfavorable versions of Forest, LID, uncontrolled Conventional Development, and Conventional Development with Stormwater Management. SWMM was run in continuous mode using local rainfall data, and event mode using NRCS design storms. Runoff volumes, peak flows, and flow duration curves were compared. / Master of Science

This thesis presents the development of a dual-isotope simulation in a hydrological model, and its application to the lower Nelson River basin. The purpose of this study is to find if the simulation of stable water isotopes aids in hydrological simulation, and if a dual-isotope simulation is an improvement over a single-isotope simulation. The isoWATFLOOD model was enhanced to include δ2H and improve physical representativeness. The model was calibrated using various isotope and flow simulation error functions. Internal hydrologic storages and fluxes were verified by comparing simulated isotope values to observed isotope data. Adding isotope error to the calibration resulted in small but consistent improvements to the physical basis of calibrated parameter values. Isotope simulation error was found to be the best predictor of streamflow simulation performance beyond the calibration period. The dual-isotope simulation identified a number of model limitations and potential improvements from the verification of internal hydrologic storages. / October 2016

This study is focused on the evaluation of selected rainfall-runoff episodes in terms of temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and runoff in the upper basin of the Blanice River. HEC - HMS model with two variants of spatial discretization was used to achieve the results of the holistic approach. The main input data was quantitative precipitation estimation, which better assessed the spatial variability of rainfall fields than interpolated ground measurements. The model simulated five episodes. Contrary to expectations, southern headstream area of the basin showed lower coefficient of runoff in comparison with its northern part. Precipitation cores of epizods occurred over the northern part of the basin at the outlet. Outputs from the model were evaluated in relation to measurements carried out in the experimental basin Zbytiny. Key words: Blanice River, HEC-HMS, hydrologic modeling, quantitative precipitation estimation

A Bacia do Alto Tiete abriga cerca de 50% dos habitantes do Estado de São Paulo e é afetada freqüentemente por eventos de inundações. Uma das principais fontes de problemas é a alta impermeabilização devida à ocupação da superfície nas últimas décadas. Um dos seus tributários secundários, a bacia do Rio Pirajuçara se insere neste contexto e sofre com problemas da mesma natureza. A modelagem hidrológica permite uma análise do escoamento superficial nestes ambientes e é útil na previsão de vazões por meio de redes telemétricas e sensoriamento remoto. Entretanto, redes telemétricas apresentam problemas de representatividade espacial e exposição, radares meteorológicos, apesar da maior resolução espaço-temporal das estimativas de precipitação, possuem várias fontes de erros e incertezas. A principal delas se refere à relação ZR. Deste modo, a integração dessas medições e estimativas pode minimizar erros de ambas. O objetivo deste estudo é analisar aspectos hidrológicos da Bacia do Rio Pirajuçara por meio do modelo TOPMODEL com medições de vazão e precipitação disponíveis para 18 eventos monitorados entre outubro de 2008 a outubro de 2009. O modelo TOPMODEL foi calibrado com dez eventos e verificado com os demais. A calibração foi realizada com os dados da telemetria da Bacia do Alto Tietê, radar meteorológico de São Paulo e a combinação de ambos por meio da análise objetiva estatística. Os resultados da calibração indicam que o melhor desempenho foi obtido com radar meteorológico, com número de NASH de 0,51, menor erro quadrático médio e menor viés médio absoluto. A verificação também indicou o mesmo resultado com número de NASH de 0,69. As simulações indicam que apesar da utilização da precipitação média, o modelo TOPMODEL simulou adequadamente cerca de 75% das vazões de alerta. O trabalho evidencia as limitações da telemetria e seus impactos na integração com os dados do radar. / The Alto Tiete watershed is home for about 50% of the inhabitants of São Paulo State and is affected by recurrent flashfloods. One major source of difficulties is the high rate of soil impermeabilization caused by dense surface occupation in the last decades. One of its secondary tributaries, the Pirajussara watershed suffers with similar problems. Hydrological modeling allows the analysis of runoff and other variables in these basins. It also useful for streamflow forecast based on telemetric networks and remote sensing measurements. However, surface networks lack spatial representativity and exposure is a also a issue, weather radars, in spite of their much higher spatial and temporal resolution rainfall estimation, are affect by several sources of errors and uncertainties; the most significant one being the ZR relationship. Thus, the integration of these measurements and estimates can minimize errors of both. The goal of the present work is to analyze the surface hydrology of the Pirajussara watershed based on the TOPMODEL, streamflow and rainfall measurements available for eighteen events between October 2008 and October 2009. The TOPMODEL was calibrated with ten events and verified with the remaining events. The calibration was performed with the Alto Tiete telemetric measurements of streamflow and rainfall only, the São Paulo weather radar (SPWR) only and a combination of both through the statistical analysis scheme. Calibration results show a better performance for the SPWR with a NASH number of 0.51, least SME and mean bias. On the other hand, the verification also indicated better results for the SPWR with a NASH number of 0.69. The simulations indicate that in spite of the use of the mean rainfall over the watershed, the TOPMODEL performed adequately for 75% of the streamflow alerts. It is also evident the limitation of the available network and its impacts on the integration to the SPWR rainfall data.

Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-09-30T14:13:18Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Seibt, Ana Carolina-2013-dissertação.pdf: 5037341 bytes, checksum: 38a12e79b86bc07ba01840f886afd010 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-09-30T15:27:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Seibt, Ana Carolina-2013-dissertação.pdf: 5037341 bytes, checksum: 38a12e79b86bc07ba01840f886afd010 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-09-30T15:27:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Seibt, Ana Carolina-2013-dissertação.pdf: 5037341 bytes, checksum: 38a12e79b86bc07ba01840f886afd010 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-07-29 / Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The numerous problems arising from the increased amount of impermeable areas and drainage system of rainwater lagged consist of a hard challenge for public administrations. The hydrological modeling appears as a strong support engineering, however, is subject to a distinct set of constraints rarely explicitly considered by analysis of uncertainty to the results. The present study aims to highlight the role of hydrological modeling through a model transformation process for rainfall-runoff watershed stream Botafogo (Goiania - GO), called UFGModel1.0 and ascertain the uncertainty analysis applied in simulation flows. To achieve the goal, after exposure of the problem, we propose a methodology for uncertainty analysis using the Monte Carlo method, based on the method of estimation uncertainty GLUE. We stress the importance given in consideration of the precipitation fields, and the effect of simplifying the response of a model of a precipitation-runoff. The results demonstrate that multiple sets of parameters were considered excellent high efficiency enabling a model for events intense precipitation. Parameters studied concluded that the sealed area holds great sensitivity, significantly altering the design flow. / Os inúmeros problemas advindos do aumento da quantidade das áreas impermeabilizadas e do sistema de drenagem das águas pluviais defasado consistem em um árduo desafio para as gestões públicas. A modelagem hidrológica aparece como um forte suporte da engenharia, porém, está sujeita a um conjunto de restrições distintas, raramente consideradas explicitamente através da análise de incerteza associada aos resultados obtidos. O presente trabalho propõe-se a ressaltar o papel desempenhado pela modelagem hidrológica através de um modelo de transformação do processo precipitação-vazão para bacia hidrográfica do córrego Botafogo (Goiânia – GO), denominado de UFGModel1.0 e averiguar a análise de incerteza aplicada na simulação de vazões. Para o cumprimento do objetivo, após a exposição do problema, propõe-se uma metodologia de análise da incerteza através do método de Monte Carlo, baseada no método de estimação de incerteza GLUE. Ressalta-se a importância dada em consideração aos campos de precipitação, e ao efeito de sua simplificação na resposta de um modelo do tipo precipitação-vazão. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que vários conjuntos de parâmetros foram considerados ótimos possibilitando uma alta eficiência do modelo para eventos intensos de precipitação. O modelo apresentou maior sensibilidade ao parâmetro de área impermeabilizada e Manning do plano.

Advances in water resources modeling are improving the information that can be supplied to support decisions that affect the safety and sustainability of society, but these advances result in models being more computationally demanding. To facilitate the use of cost- effective computing resources to meet the increased demand through high-throughput computing (HTC) and cloud computing in modeling workflows and web applications, I developed a comprehensive Python toolkit that provides the following features: (1) programmatic access to diverse, dynamically scalable computing resources; (2) a batch scheduling system to queue and dispatch the jobs to the computing resources; (3) data management for job inputs and outputs; and (4) the ability for jobs to be dynamically created, submitted, and monitored from the scripting environment. To compose this comprehensive computing toolkit, I created two Python libraries (TethysCluster and CondorPy) that leverage two existing software tools (StarCluster and HTCondor). I further facilitated access to HTC in web applications by using these libraries to create powerful and flexible computing tools for Tethys Platform, a development and hosting platform for web-based water resources applications. I tested this toolkit while collaborating with other researchers to perform several modeling applications that required scalable computing. These applications included a parameter sweep with 57,600 realizations of a distributed, hydrologic model; a set of web applications for retrieving and formatting data; a web application for evaluating the hydrologic impact of land-use change; and an operational, national-scale, high- resolution, ensemble streamflow forecasting tool. In each of these applications the toolkit was successful in automating the process of running the large-scale modeling computations in an HTC environment.

East Iowa experienced large flooding during June of 2008. This study used Cuencas hydrological model to simulate the discharges of June 2008 at Eldorado and Elkader, in the Turkey River Watershed, in North East Iowa. The results of this study were used to test the performance of Cuencas modeling this flood event and to explore the role of land cover change in the floods of 2008 at Elkader, Iowa. Cuencas was found to be a suitable tool to predict this event, that requires relatively low resources. The total time to run each simulation was around two hours which is reasonable for such large watershed (900 mi2), but a computer cluster was needed to run these simulations. The results from this study suggest that the role of land cover change from pre-settlement to current conditions was significant when using the rainfall conditions of 2008. The discharges simulated at Elkader, Iowa were almost twice as large when using the 2001 land cover, than when using the land cover found during 1832-1859, recorded during the General Land Office (GLO) survey. These results need to be taken only as preliminary results, since there is no data to validate the model at the time of the GLO survey, and since it is the first time that Cuencas is used to model the effects of land cover in Iowa's hydrology. However, the potential large reduction on discharge of the pre-settlement land cover is an incentive to investigate this issue further and continue developing Cuencas to capture the effects of less drastic land cover changes.