This thesis addresses the current lack of comprehensive, quantitative methods for comparing hydrological spatial fields. Comparison of spatial fields is needed for assessing hydrological models and for data assimilation. The methods that are currently used for quantitative comparison generally fail to consider the spatial arrangement of element values within spatial fields. Instead, there is a dependence on qualitative methods (e.g. visual comparison) to undertake comparison of many aspects (e.g. intermediate scale features), but such methods are non-repeatable, often biased and difficult to report on. This thesis advances the comparison methods available for use with hydrological spatial fields. (For complete abstract open document)

The interaction between climate and land-surface hydrology is extremely important in relation to long term water resource planning. This is especially so in the presence of global warming and massive land use change, issues which seem likely to have a disproportionate impact on developing countries. This thesis develops tools aimed at the study and prediction of climate effects on land-surface hydrology (in particular streamflow), which require a minimum amount of site specific data. This minimum data requirement allows studies to be performed in areas that are data sparse, such as the developing world. ¶ A simple lumped dynamics-encapsulating conceptual rainfall-runoff model, which explicitly calculates the evaporative feedback to the atmosphere, was developed. It uses the linear streamflow routing module of the rainfall-runoff model IHACRES, with a new non-linear loss module based on the Catchment Moisture Deficit accounting scheme, and is referred to as CMD-IHACRES. In this model, evaporation can be calculated using a number of techniques depending on the data available, as a minimum, one to two years of precipitation, temperature and streamflow data are required. The model was tested on catchments covering a large range of hydroclimatologies and shown to estimate streamflow well. When tested against evaporation data the simplest technique was found to capture the medium to long term average well but had difficulty reproducing the short-term variations. ¶ A comparison of the performance of three limited area climate models (MM5/BATS, MM5/SHEELS and RegCM2) was conducted in order to quantify their ability to reproduce near surface variables. Components of the energy and water balance over the land surface display considerable variation among the models, with no model performing consistently better than the other two. However, several conclusions can be made. The MM5 longwave radiation scheme performed worse than the scheme implemented in RegCM2. Estimates of runoff displayed the largest variations and differed from observations by as much as 100%. The climate models exhibited greater variance than the observations for almost all the energy and water related fluxes investigated. ¶ An investigation into improving these streamflow predictions by utilizing CMD-IHACRES was conducted. Using CMD-IHACRES in an 'offline' mode greatly improved the streamflow estimates while the simplest evaporation technique reproduced the evaporative time series to an accuracy comparable to that obtained from the limited area models alone. The ability to conduct a climate change impact study using CMD-IHACRES and a stochastic weather generator is also demonstrated. These results warrant further investigation into incorporating the rainfall-runoff model CMD-IHACRES in a fully coupled 'online' approach.

The interconnections between groundwater and river systems remain poorly understood in many catchments throughout the world, and yet they are fundamental to effectively managing water resources. Groundwater extraction from aquifers that are connected to river systems will reduce river flows, and this has implications for riverine ecosystem health, water security, aesthetic and cultural values, as well as water allocation and water management policies more generally. The decline in river flows as a consequence of groundwater extractions has the potential to threaten river basin industries and communities reliant on water resources. ¶ In this thesis the connectivity between groundwater and river systems and the impact that groundwater extractions have on river flows were studied in one of Australia’s most developed irrigation areas, the Namoi River catchment in New South Wales. ¶ Gauged river reaches in the Namoi River catchment were characterised according to three levels of information: 1) presence of hydraulic connection between aquifer-river systems; 2) dominant direction of aquifer-river flux; and 3) the potential for groundwater extraction to impact on river flows. The methods used to characterise the river reaches included the following analyses: 1) a comparison of groundwater and river channel base elevations using a GIS/Database; 2) stream hydrographs and the application of a baseflow separation filter; 3) flow duration curves and the percentage of time a river flows; 4) vertical aquifer connectivity from nested piezometer sites; and 5) paired stream and groundwater hydrographs. ¶ The theoretical responses for gaining, losing and variably gaining-losing river reaches were conceptualised along with the processes that operate in these systems. Subsequently, a map was prepared for the Namoi River catchment river reaches indicating aquifer-river connectivity and dominant direction of flux. Large areas of the Upper Namoi River catchment were found to have connected aquifer-river systems, with groundwater extraction bores located in close proximity to the rivers. Accordingly, the potential for groundwater extraction to impact on river flows in these areas was considered significant. The Lower Namoi was assessed as having mostly disconnected aquifer-river systems. ¶ In order to investigate the impacts of groundwater extraction on river flows in connected aquifer-river systems, a simple integrated aquifer-river model entitled IHACRES_GW was developed for use at the catchment scale. The IHACRES_GW model includes a dynamic, spatially-lumped rainfall-runoff model, IHACRES, combined with a simple groundwater bucket model that maintains a continuous water balance account of groundwater storage volumes for the upstream catchment area relative to the base of the stream, assumed to be the stream gauging station. The IHACRES_GW model was developed primarily: 1) to improve upon existing water allocation models by incorporating aquifer-river interactions; 2) to quantify the impacts of groundwater extraction on river flows within unregulated, connected aquifer-river systems; 3) to inform water policy on groundwater extraction; and 4) to be able to utilise the model in future integrated assessment of water allocations options at the catchment scale. ¶ The IHACRES_GW model was applied within the Cox’s Creek subcatchment in order to test its validity. The model was used to simulate a range of extraction scenarios which enabled the impacts of groundwater extractions on river flows to be assessed. In particular, the historical impacts of groundwater extraction on the timing, magnitude and frequency of baseflow events were quantified over a 15-year (1988-2003) simulation period. The IHACRES_GW model was also used to evaluate the implications of water sharing plans for the Cox’s Creek subcatchment. ¶ A spatially-lumped modelling approach in the management of water resources has a number of limitations, including those arising from the lack of spatial considerations. However, it offers a number of advantages including facilitating a better understanding of large-scale water management issues, assessing the impacts of water allocation and groundwater extraction on river flows at the catchment scale, and informing water sharing plans. In particular, this type of modelling approach lends itself to integrated assessments of water allocation options in which hydrological, ecological and socioeconomic data sets are combined, and where data is commonly aggregated to a larger scale of interest in response to the requirements of policy makers. The research findings from this thesis provide some insights into how to better manage the impacts of groundwater extraction in connected aquifer-river systems.

This thesis addresses the current lack of comprehensive, quantitative methods for comparing hydrological spatial fields. Comparison of spatial fields is needed for assessing hydrological models and for data assimilation. The methods that are currently used for quantitative comparison generally fail to consider the spatial arrangement of element values within spatial fields. Instead, there is a dependence on qualitative methods (e.g. visual comparison) to undertake comparison of many aspects (e.g. intermediate scale features), but such methods are non-repeatable, often biased and difficult to report on. This thesis advances the comparison methods available for use with hydrological spatial fields. (For complete abstract open document)

<p>High-latitude watersheds have been regarded as a carbon sink with soil carbon accumulating at low temperature. This sink is now believed to turn into a source, acting as positive feedback to climate warming. However, thawing permafrost soils would allow more water to percolate down to deeper soil layers where some of the carbon could be “consumed” in weathering and exported as bicarbonate to the sea. Using a hydrological mixing model showed that this could counterbalance the predicted positive feedback resulting from thawing soils.</p><p>Vegetation-covered riparian zones in headwater areas appear to have a significant role for the dissolved constituent fluxes. Higher concentrations of weathering products are found in taiga and tundra rivers with larger areas of forest and peat cover in the watershed. These landscape elements can thus be regarded as “hot spots” of river loading with dissolved constituents.</p><p>Comparing a regulated and an unregulated river tested the hypothesis that damming leads to a depletion of major elements also in oligotrophic river systems as a consequence of changes in landscape elements. A loss of upper soils and vegetation through inundation prevents the contact of surface waters with vegetated soil, and consequently reduces weathering fluxes. The hypothesis that the lower fluxes of dissolved silica (DSi) in the regulated river could also be explained by biological uptake was then tested using a model, and budget calculations indicate a significant reduction as a result of regulation. About 10% of this reduction can be attributed to the flooding of the fluvial corridor and the rest to diatom blooms in the reservoirs. A more detailed study of landscape elements for the headwaters of the river Luleälven showed that only 3% of the surface area has been inundated by reservoirs but ca. 37% of the deciduous forest. Such a significant loss of hot spots may indeed explain the observed lower DSi fluxes in the regulated watersheds of northern Sweden.</p>

The first part of this thesis aims at defining the conditions triggering muddy floods in the Belgian loess belt. On average, each municipality is confronted with 3.6 muddy floods each year. Annual costs associated with their off-site impacts are estimated at € 16-172 millions for the entire Belgian loess belt. A topographic threshold is derived to predict the source areas of muddy floods. Furthermore, the storms required to produce a flood are, on average, smaller in May and June (25 mm) than between July and September (46 mm). This difference is explained by the variability of soil surface characteristics that determine the runoff potential of cultivated soils (soil cover by crops and residues, soil surface crusting and roughness). Steady state infiltration rates of cropland and grassed areas were characterised in the field using a 0.5 m2-portable rainfall simulator. Overall, grassed areas have a lower infiltration rate (16-23 mm h-1) than croplands (25-52 mm h-1). Muddy floods are mostly observed between May-September because of the coincidence of critical soil surface conditions for runoff generation with the most erosive storms. After an adaptation of its decision rules to the local conditions, the STREAM expert-based model provides satisfactory runoff/erosion predictions at the catchment scale. The second part of the thesis aims at evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control muddy floods. A modelling case-study showed that peak discharge was reduced by more than 40% by installing a grassed waterway and a dam at the outlet of a 300 ha-catchment. Monitoring the same catchment (2002-2007) demonstrated that the grassed waterway as well as three dams prevented any muddy flood in the downstream village despite the occurrence of several extreme storms (with a maximum return period of 150 years). Peak discharge was reduced by 69%. Specific sediment yield dropped from 3.5 t ha-1 yr-1 to a mean of 0.5 t ha-1 yr-1 after the installation of the control measures, thereby reducing drastically sediment transfer to the alluvial plain. Finally, a methodology is provided to implement grassed waterways and earthen dams in other dry valleys in the Belgian loess belt and comparable environments.

Water resources, in terms of quantity and quality, are significantly influenced by environmental changes, especially by climate and land use changes. The main objective of the present study is to project climate change impacts on the seasonal dynamics of water fluxes, spatial changes in water balance components as well as the future flood and low flow conditions in Germany. This study is based on the modeling results of the process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) driven by various regional climate scenarios on one hand. On the other hand, it is supported by statistical analysis on long-term trends of observed and simulated time series. In addition, this study evaluates the impacts of potential land use changes on water quality in terms of NO3-N load in selected sub-regions of the Elbe basin. In the context of climate change, the actual evapotransipration is likely to increase in most parts of Germany, while total runoff generation may decrease in south and east regions in the scenario period 2051-2060. Water discharge in all six studied large rivers (Ems, Weser, Saale, Danube, Main and Neckar) would be 8 – 30% lower in summer and autumn compared to the reference period (1961 – 1990), and the strongest decline is expected for the Saale, Danube and Neckar. The 50-year low flow is likely to occur more frequently in western, southern and central Germany after 2061 as suggested by more than 80% of the model runs. The current low flow period (from August to September) may be extended until the late autumn at the end of this century. Higher winter flow is expected in all of these rivers, and the increase is most significant for the Ems (about 18%). No general pattern of changes in flood directions can be concluded according to the results driven by different RCMs, emission scenarios and multi-realizations. An optimal agricultural land use and management are essential for the reduction in nutrient loads and improvement of water quality. In the Weiße Elster and Unstrut sub-basins (Elbe), an increase of 10% in the winter rape area can result in 12-19% more NO3-N load in rivers. In contrast, another energy plant, maize, has a moderate effect on the water environment. Mineral fertilizers have a much stronger effect on the NO3-N load than organic fertilizers. Cover crops, which play an important role in the reduction of nitrate losses from fields, should be maintained on cropland. The uncertainty in estimating future high flows and, in particular, extreme floods remain high due to different RCM structures, emission scenarios and multi-realizations. In contrast, the projection of low flows under warmer climate conditions appears to be more pronounced and consistent. The largest source of uncertainty related to NO3-N modelling originates from the input data on the agricultural management. / Wasserressourcen werden in Quantität und Qualität von Veränderungen in der Umwelt, insbesondere von Änderungen des Klimas und der Landnutzung, in signifikantem Maße beeinflusst. In dieser Arbeit wurden die Auswirkungen von Klimavariabilität und Klimawandel auf die Wasserressourcen und Extremereignisse wie Hoch- und Niedrigwasser in Deutschland untersucht. Die Analyse erfolgte auf der einen Seite modellgestützt, wobei die Ergebnisse aus verschiedenen regionalen Klimamodellen durch ein ökohydrologisches Modell in Änderungen in den hydrologischen Prozessen transformiert wurden, zum anderen aber auch datengestützt, z.B. durch die statistische Interpretation von beobachteten und simulierten Zeitreihen. Zusätzlich wurden die Auswirkungen von Landnutzungsänderungen auf Umsatz von Stickstoff in der Landschaft und im Wasser untersucht, wobei dasselbe ökohydrologische Modell zum Einsatz kam. Im Rahmen des Klimawandels wird zur Mitte dieses Jahrhunderts die aktuelle Evapotranspiration in den meisten Teilen Deutschlands mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit zunehmen. Die täglichen Abflussmengen der fünf größten Flussgebiete in Deutschland (Ems, Weser, Elbe, Obere Donau und Rhein) werden dieser Untersuchung zur Folge im Sommer und Herbst um 8%-30% geringer sein als in der Referenzperiode (1961-1990). 80% der Szenariensimulationen stimmen darin überein, dass die 50-jährigen Niedrigwasserereignisse zum Ende dieses Jahrhunderts mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit häufiger in den westlichen, den südlichen und den zentralen Teilen Deutschlands auftreten werden. Die gegenwärtige Niedrigwasserperiode (August-September) könnte sich zudem dann bis in den späten Herbst ausweiten. Für alle Flüsse werden höhere Winterabflüsse erwartet, wobei diese Zunahme für die Ems am stärksten ausfällt (ca. 18%). Mit größerer Unsicherheit sind dagegen die Aussagen zur Entwicklung der Hochwasser behaftet. Aus den Ergebnissen, die durch unterschiedliche regionale Klimamodelle und Szenarien getrieben wurden, kann jedoch kein allgemeingültiges Muster für die Änderungen der 50-jährigen Hochwässer ausgemacht werden. Eine optimierte Landnutzung und ein optimiertes Landmanagement sind für die Reduzierung der NO3-Einträge in die Oberflächengewässer essentiell. In den Einzusgebieten der Weißen Elster und der Unstrut (Elbe) kann eine Zunahme von 10% in der Anbaufläche von Winterraps zu einer 12-19% höheren NO3 Fracht führen. Mais, eine weitere Energiepflanze, hat hingegen einen mäßigeren Effekt auf die Oberflächengewässer. Die Höhe der Gabe von mineralischen Düngern beeinflußt zudem in starkem Maße die Nitratbelastung von Flüssen. Zwischenfrüchte können den NO3-Austrag im Sommer zusätzlich erheblich verringern. Insgesamt bleibt die Unsicherheit in der Vorhersage von Spitzenabflüssen und im Besonderen von Extrem-Hochwässern als Folge unterschiedlicher regionaler Klimamodelle, Emissionsszenarien und Realisationen sehr hoch. Im Gegensatz dazu erscheinen die Projektionen zu den Niedrigwasserereignissen unter wärmeren Bedingungen sehr viel deutlicher und einheitlicher. Die größte Unsicherheit in der Modellierung von NO3 dagegen sind die Eingangsdaten z.B. für das lokale landwirtschaftliche Management.

High-latitude watersheds have been regarded as a carbon sink with soil carbon accumulating at low temperature. This sink is now believed to turn into a source, acting as positive feedback to climate warming. However, thawing permafrost soils would allow more water to percolate down to deeper soil layers where some of the carbon could be “consumed” in weathering and exported as bicarbonate to the sea. Using a hydrological mixing model showed that this could counterbalance the predicted positive feedback resulting from thawing soils. Vegetation-covered riparian zones in headwater areas appear to have a significant role for the dissolved constituent fluxes. Higher concentrations of weathering products are found in taiga and tundra rivers with larger areas of forest and peat cover in the watershed. These landscape elements can thus be regarded as “hot spots” of river loading with dissolved constituents. Comparing a regulated and an unregulated river tested the hypothesis that damming leads to a depletion of major elements also in oligotrophic river systems as a consequence of changes in landscape elements. A loss of upper soils and vegetation through inundation prevents the contact of surface waters with vegetated soil, and consequently reduces weathering fluxes. The hypothesis that the lower fluxes of dissolved silica (DSi) in the regulated river could also be explained by biological uptake was then tested using a model, and budget calculations indicate a significant reduction as a result of regulation. About 10% of this reduction can be attributed to the flooding of the fluvial corridor and the rest to diatom blooms in the reservoirs. A more detailed study of landscape elements for the headwaters of the river Luleälven showed that only 3% of the surface area has been inundated by reservoirs but ca. 37% of the deciduous forest. Such a significant loss of hot spots may indeed explain the observed lower DSi fluxes in the regulated watersheds of northern Sweden.

In order to find effective measures that meet the requirements for proper groundwater quality and quantity management, there is a need to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) and a suitable modelling tool. Central components of a DSS for groundwater management are thought to be models for surface- and groundwater flow and solute transport. The most feasible approach seems to be integration of available mathematical models, and development of a strategy for evaluation of the uncertainty propagation through these models. The physically distributed hydrological model ECOMAG has been integrated with the groundwater model MODFLOW to form a new integrated watershed modelling system - ECOFLOW. The modelling system ECOFLOW has been developed and embedded in Arc View. The multiple-scale modelling principle, combines a more detailed representation of the groundwater flow conditions with lumped watershed modelling, characterised by simplicity in model use, and a minimised number of model parameters. A Bayesian statistical downscaling procedure has also been developed and implemented in the model. This algorithm implies downscaling of the parameters used in the model, and leads to decreasing of the uncertainty level in the modelling results. The integrated model ECOFLOW has been applied to the Vemmenhög catchment, in Southern Sweden, and the Örsundaån catchment, in central Sweden. The applications demonstrated that the model is capable of simulating, with reasonable accuracy, the hydrological processes within both the agriculturally dominated watershed (Vemmenhög) and the forest dominated catchment area (Örsundaån). The results show that the ECOFLOW model adequately predicts the stream and groundwater flow distribution in these watersheds, and that the model can be used as a possible tool for simulation of surface– and groundwater processes on both local and regional scales. A chemical module ECOMAG-N has been created and tested on the Vemmenhög watershed with a highly dense drainage system and intensive fertilisation practises. The chemical module appeared to provide reliable estimates of spatial nitrate loads in the watershed. The observed and simulated nitrogen concentration values were found to be in close agreement at most of the reference points. The proposed future research includes further development of this model for contaminant transport in the surface- and ground water for point and non-point source contamination modelling. Further development of the model will be oriented towards integration of the ECOFLOW model system into a planned Decision Support System. / QC 20101007

Two Differential GPS (DGPS) stations were set up on Storglaciären in the upper and lower part of the ablation area to study short term variations of Storglaciären’s motion. The study period lasted from April to July 2009 and the DGPS logged data every second. Station 14, was situated over an overdeepening in the subglacial bedrock topography in the upper part of the ablation area, and was functioning the whole study period. Station 7, situated in the lower part of the ablation area, only lasted for nine days and only overlapped five days with station 14. There was a clear lag in ice motion between the two stations which indicates longitudinal coupling between the upper and the lower part of the ablation area. Station 14 pushed from up-glacier during the first acceleration event at the 24th of April and when the velocity decreased station 7 pulled from down-glacier.  The total movement of the DGPS station was 26 m during the study period. The velocity was well correlated to the external changes in temperature and precipitation. It appears to be eleven days lag in response time from April to middle of May, but after mid May the glacier responded directly to melt acts such as temperature changes and precipitation events. The delay most likely depended on the hydrological system was not entirely evolved during early spring. During the summer the system evolves which makes the glacier to respond directly to external changes. There were four major acceleration events during the study period and after the accelerations the velocity went back to the same low state as before. These cannot be interpreted as spring events as spring events should lead to an increase in the overall velocity. The temperature fluctuated during the whole study period which affects the melting rate and input and development of the hydrological system. To get a clear spring event a marked and substantial onset of melt season is needed. / Två differentiella bärvägs GPS (DGPS) stationer sattes upp på Storglaciären på den övre och lägre delen av ablations området för att studera korttidsvariationer i isflöde. Fältundersökningen pågick under april till juli 2009 och DGPS loggades varje sekund. Station 14 är placerad vid en överfördjupning i bottentopografin i den övre delen av ablationsområdet och var i gång under hela studien. Station 7 fungerade endast i nio dagar och är placerad vid den lägre delen av ablationsområdet samt överlappade under endast fem dagar med station 14. Det finns en tydlig fördröjning mellan de två stationerna i isrörelse vilket indikerar en longitudinell koppling mellan den övre och undre delen av ablationsområdet. Före den 24 april reagerade station 14 snabbare än station 7. Efter en kraftig acceleration vid station 14 den 24 april skedde det en förändring till att den nedre delen av ablationsområdet reagerade snabbare än den övre delen. Den totala förflyttningen av station 14 var 26 m under mätperioden. Hastigheten är korrelerad med externa förändringar i temperatur och nederbörd. Under april till mitten av maj var det en förändring i reaktionstid på elva dagar men den övergick under sommaren till att reagera direkt på förändringar i temperatur och nederbörd. Förskjutningen berodde troligtvis på att det hydrologiska systemet inte var tillräckligt utvecklat. Under sommaren utvecklas systemet vilket leder till att glaciären reagerar snabbare på externa förändringar. Det förekom fyra större accelerationshändelser under fältperioden. Efter de observerade accelerationerna gick hastigheten tillbaka till samma nivå. Dessa accelerationshändelser kan inte tolkas som våracceleration. En våracceleration innebär att den generella hastigheten hos glaciären ökar till en ny högre nivå. Detta kan bero på att temperaturen skiftade under hela fältperioden som styr smältning, isflöde och utveckling av det hydroligiska systemet. För att få en tydlig ”spring event” måste smältsäsongens nå en tydlig början och forstätta så kontinueligt.