Com 6 milhões de km2, a bacia Amazônica é o maior sistema hidrográfico do mundo, com descarga estimada de 209.000 m3 s-1, e a maior extensão contínua de floresta tropical. Porém, esta região é alvo de constantes ameaças, seja das pressões por desmatamento, ou por alterações climáticas. Neste contexto, compreender o funcionamento do sistema é essencial, seja para auxiliar na tomada de decisões ou estudos de cenários futuros. Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar e adaptar o modelo hidrológico de grandes bacias Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC v.4.0.5), para as condições tropicais. Foram utilizados dados de descarga, precipitação, temperatura e velocidade do vento, e informações sobre tipo de solo e cobertura vegetal, para simular o ciclo hidrológico em 6 grandes bacias situadas na Amazônia: Santo Antônio do Içá, Japurá, Juruá, Negro, Madeira e Purus. O modelo foi calibrado a partir das descargas mensais, de 1980 a 1990, e seu funcionamento foi verificado para o período de 1990 a 2006. Não foi possível simular o ciclo hidrológico para as bacias com grande contribuição dos Andes, Santo A. Içá e Japurá, uma vez que a estimativa de precipitação nestas regiões é subestimada. Nas outras bacias, o modelo foi capaz de simular corretamente as vazões dos rios, apesar de apresentar problemas na estimativa da evapotranspiração (ET). Foram constatados problemas na partição da ET em seus componentes, transpiração da vegetação e evaporação da água interceptada. Uma possível correção foi avaliada, resultando em uma distribuição mais correta da ET em seus componentes porém, tal modificação resultou em redução da ET média simulada. Uma nova versão do modelo (v.4.1) acaba de ser lançada. Dentre as melhorias, destacam-se modificações na maneira como a ET é calculada, que visa corrigir os problemas aqui relatados. No entanto, tal versão ainda não foi avaliada nas condições tropicais / The Amazon river basin is the largest fluvial system in the world, discharging 209,000 m3 s-1 to the ocean. It also sustains the largest continuous tropical forest system. However, the region is under constant pressure from deforestation and climate change. For such reasons, its crucial to understand how the hydrological cycle functions. Such tools can be used for evaluation of future scenarios and guide decision making. The Variable infiltration Capacity Model (VIC) was evaluated and adapted to tropical conditions. Temperature, precipitation, wind speed, soil type and land cover maps were used to simulate the hydrological cycle in 2 sub-basins inside the Amazon: Santo Antônio do Içá, Japurá, Juruá, Negro, Madeira e Purus, covering the period from 1980 to 2006. The simulation was not possible for basins with large drainage area located in the Andes (Santo A. Içá and Japurá), due to underestimation of the precipitation. For the other basins, simulated discharge agreed with observed records, even though evapotranspiration (ET) estimates showed some problems. The ET partitioning in its components, transpiration and canopy evaporation, showed severe discrepancies. A correction was applied to the model, fixing the partitioning problem but it resulted in reduction of estimate ET. A new version of the model (v.4.1) has just been released, with changes in the way ET is estimated. However, this new version has not yet been tested in the Amazon

Este trabalho discute a composição de campos de precipitação a partir de duas fontes de dados: os pluviômetros e o radar meteorológico. Estudaram-se métodos baseados somente em dados de pluviômetros, somente em dados de radar, e técnicas que combinam as duas fontes de dados. O objeto de estudo é a bacia do rio Jacaré-Guaçu, que conta com 65 postos pluviométricos e um radar meteorológico, do IPMet-Bauru. Foi feita uma comparação direta entre os campos gerados pelas diversas técnicas, onde foi avaliado o comportamento do índice G (razão entre o registro pluviométrico e a média dos registros de radar dos 9 pixels que circundam o pluviômetro), a capacidade destas técnicas de fornecer a chuva pontual e a altura média diária e anual de chuva por área de integração. Os métodos compostos apresentaram valores pontuais de chuva muito elevados e foram introduzidos fatores limitantes para compensar estas super correções. Os resultados obtidos reproduziram qualitativamente os valores da literatura. Ao analisar a média das chuvas diárias para toda a bacia e para todo o período, utilizando como padrão de comparação o método do Inverso do Quadrado da Distância (IQD), constatou que o radar fornece valores 12% menores, e que os métodos mistos apresentam diferenças na faixa de -0,5 a +16%. Nesta forma de análise existe um ganho ao se utilizar as técnicas mistas, porém ao se trabalhar com valores diários, integrados em sub-bacias, as diferenças atingem valores de -45% até +70%. Estes campos de precipitação foram aplicados em um modelo hidrológico distribuído, de embasamento físico, com 19 parâmetros calibráveis. Trabalhou-se com 10 postos fluviométricos e com 6 anos de dados. A calibração foi feita com dois anos e o restante deles foi usado para validação. Para garantir a comparação entre os resultados usou-se rigorosamente a mesma metodologia de calibração, com apoio de algoritmo genético. Foram utilizadas três funções objetivo: uma para verificação dos picos, outra para recessão e a última para avaliar a diferença de volume. Verificou-se que os melhores resultados foram obtidos para os métodos IQD, Brandes com o maior limitador, Radar e Costa. Nestes métodos, o processo de calibração consegue compensar as diferenças dos campos de precipitação. As diferenças observadas nos campos de precipitação foram reproduzidas nos hidrogramas. Os hidrogramas resultantes da aplicação dos dados de radar não reproduziram bem a recessão e os hidrogramas resultantes dos campos gerados apenas por pluviômetros apresentam picos elevados. As técnicas mistas ora atenuam os picos ora intensificam-nos. Sugere-se mais pesquisa para o desenvolvimento de métodos mistos que explorem as vantagens dos dois equipamentos de medida de chuva / This work discusses the composition of precipitation fields using two data sources: rain gauges and weather radar. Methods based solely on rain gauges, on weather radar, and techniques that combine these two measurement instruments were studied. The study object is the Jacaré-Guaçu river basin, with 65 rain gauges and a meteorological radar (IPMet-Bauru). A direct comparison of these fields generated by diverse techniques was made to study the following subjects: G index (reason between the rain gauge register and the average of the 9 pixels radar registers that surround the rain gauge), the capacity of these techniques to supply the point rain and the daily and annual mean rain height over an integration area. The combined methods provides very high point values, therefore some limitations were introduced to compensate these super corrections. The literature results were qualitatively reproduced in this study. The daily mean rain height comparative analyses for all the basin, and for all the period, evidenced that the radar supplies to values 12% minors, and that the composed methods present differences from -0,5 up to +16%; the comparison pattern was the Inverse of Square Distance method (ISD). The study of mean rain height calculated over a great period and to the entire river basin shows a profit when using the combined techniques; however, when daily values integrated in sub-basins are used, the differences reach values from -45% until +70%. These precipitation fields had been applied in a distributed hydrologic model, physically based, with 19 calibrated parameters. There were 10 fluviometric stations and 6 years of data. The calibration was made with two years, and that remain data was used for validation. To guarantee the results comparison, the same calibration methodology was rigorously used, with support of genetic algorithm. Three objective functions were used: one for peaks verification, another for recession analyses and the last one for volume difference evaluation. The best results were achieved by the application of the precipitation fields gotten by ISD, Brandes with high limitation, Radar and Costa methods. For these methods, the calibration process compensated the differences on the precipitation fields. The differences observed in the precipitation fields had been reproduced in the hydrograms. The hydrograms of the radar data applications had not well reproduced the recession curve, and the hydrograms of the precipitation fields based only on rain gauges presented high peaks. Sometimes the composed techniques attenuate the peaks, however, sometimes they intensify them. More research is recommended to develop compoud methods that explore the advantages of the two equipments for rain measure

There is overwhelming scientific evidence that shows the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere is rising at an unprecedented rate. This is attributed to increased levels of greenhouse gas emissions, a large proportion of which originates from anthropogenic combustion of carbon-based fossil fuels for energy. There is therefore a strong argument for the increased role of less environmentally damaging, low carbon energy sources including renewable energy technologies. Run-of-river hydropower is one such renewable energy option, considered more environmentally benign than traditional hydropower which requires the construction of large dams to create a reservoir. The aim of this study was to develop a model to search for, and map, economically viable run-of-river hydropower resource that can function on any global catchment of any size. Development and testing of the model was conducted on China's 2 million km2 Yangtze River drainage basin, the third longest river in the world and a rich landscape for hydropower. A gridded, distributed hydrological model was developed integrating high-resolution meteorological datasets and a digital elevation model (DEM). Using the model, the surface hydrology of the Yangtze catchment was simulated at a timestep of 6 minutes to obtain the mean daily surface runoff for every day from the beginning of 1979 to the end of 2007. Observed river flow data from sub-catchments of the Yangtze were used to calibrate the model by differential optimisation, an evolutionary computation technique. Validation was carried out on a 1.6 million km2 sub-catchment resulting in a mean objective function of 0.95 (where a perfect fit would be 1.0) across 8 objective functions commonly used in hydrology. Catchment wide mean daily runoff data was used to develop flow duration curves across the catchment river network. Virtual power stations were constructed at each river cell, iteratively testing differing scheme configurations, and costed using the RETScreen methodology. A best performing hydropower network was determined by a conflict algorithm, designed to prioritise high profit schemes and to remove lower performing and conflicting schemes. This resulted in a potential run-of-river installed capacity across the Yangtze catchment of 103GW (at 10% discount rate), generating 394TWh per annum. This model would be a valuable tool in finding optimal locations for future hydropower resource.

In the last decade, spatially distributed hydrological models have rapidly advanced with the widespread availability of remotely sensed and geomatics information. Particularly, the areas of calibration and evaluation of spatially distributed hydrological models have been attempted in order to reduce the differences between models and improve realism through various techniques. Despite steady efforts, the study of calibrations and evaluations for spatially distributed hydrological models is still a largely unexplored field, in that there is no research in terms of the interactions of snow and water balance components with the traditional measurement methods as error functions. As one of the factors related to runoff, melting snow is important, especially in mountainous regions with heavy snowfall; however, no study considering both snow and water components simultaneously has investigated the procedures of calibration and evaluation for spatially distributed models. Additionally, novel approaches of error functions would be needed to reflect the characteristics of spatially distributed hydrological models in the comparison between simulated and observed values. Lastly, the shift from lumped model calibration to distributed model calibration has raised the model complexity. The number of unknown parameters can rapidly increase, depending on the degree of distribution. Therefore, a strategy is required to determine the optimal degree of model distributions for a study basin. In this study, we will attempt to address the issues raised above. This study utilizes the Research Distributed Hydrological Model (HL-RDHM) developed by Hydrologic Development Office of the National Weather Service (OHD-NWS). This model simultaneously simulates both snow and water balance components. It consists largely of two different modules, i.e., the Snow 17 as a snow component and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) as a water component, and is applied over the Durango River basin in Colorado, which is an area driven primarily by snow. As its main contribution, this research develops and tests various methods to calibrate and evaluate spatially distributed hydrological models with different, non-commensurate, variables and measurements. Additionally, this research provides guidance on the way to decide an appropriate degree of model distribution (resolution) for a specific water catchment.

The interconnections between groundwater and river systems remain poorly understood in many catchments throughout the world, and yet they are fundamental to effectively managing water resources. Groundwater extraction from aquifers that are connected to river systems will reduce river flows, and this has implications for riverine ecosystem health, water security, aesthetic and cultural values, as well as water allocation and water management policies more generally. The decline in river flows as a consequence of groundwater extractions has the potential to threaten river basin industries and communities reliant on water resources. ¶ In this thesis the connectivity between groundwater and river systems and the impact that groundwater extractions have on river flows were studied in one of Australia’s most developed irrigation areas, the Namoi River catchment in New South Wales. ¶ Gauged river reaches in the Namoi River catchment were characterised according to three levels of information: 1) presence of hydraulic connection between aquifer-river systems; 2) dominant direction of aquifer-river flux; and 3) the potential for groundwater extraction to impact on river flows. The methods used to characterise the river reaches included the following analyses: 1) a comparison of groundwater and river channel base elevations using a GIS/Database; 2) stream hydrographs and the application of a baseflow separation filter; 3) flow duration curves and the percentage of time a river flows; 4) vertical aquifer connectivity from nested piezometer sites; and 5) paired stream and groundwater hydrographs. ¶ The theoretical responses for gaining, losing and variably gaining-losing river reaches were conceptualised along with the processes that operate in these systems. Subsequently, a map was prepared for the Namoi River catchment river reaches indicating aquifer-river connectivity and dominant direction of flux. Large areas of the Upper Namoi River catchment were found to have connected aquifer-river systems, with groundwater extraction bores located in close proximity to the rivers. Accordingly, the potential for groundwater extraction to impact on river flows in these areas was considered significant. The Lower Namoi was assessed as having mostly disconnected aquifer-river systems. ¶ In order to investigate the impacts of groundwater extraction on river flows in connected aquifer-river systems, a simple integrated aquifer-river model entitled IHACRES_GW was developed for use at the catchment scale. The IHACRES_GW model includes a dynamic, spatially-lumped rainfall-runoff model, IHACRES, combined with a simple groundwater bucket model that maintains a continuous water balance account of groundwater storage volumes for the upstream catchment area relative to the base of the stream, assumed to be the stream gauging station. The IHACRES_GW model was developed primarily: 1) to improve upon existing water allocation models by incorporating aquifer-river interactions; 2) to quantify the impacts of groundwater extraction on river flows within unregulated, connected aquifer-river systems; 3) to inform water policy on groundwater extraction; and 4) to be able to utilise the model in future integrated assessment of water allocations options at the catchment scale. ¶ The IHACRES_GW model was applied within the Cox’s Creek subcatchment in order to test its validity. The model was used to simulate a range of extraction scenarios which enabled the impacts of groundwater extractions on river flows to be assessed. In particular, the historical impacts of groundwater extraction on the timing, magnitude and frequency of baseflow events were quantified over a 15-year (1988-2003) simulation period. The IHACRES_GW model was also used to evaluate the implications of water sharing plans for the Cox’s Creek subcatchment. ¶ A spatially-lumped modelling approach in the management of water resources has a number of limitations, including those arising from the lack of spatial considerations. However, it offers a number of advantages including facilitating a better understanding of large-scale water management issues, assessing the impacts of water allocation and groundwater extraction on river flows at the catchment scale, and informing water sharing plans. In particular, this type of modelling approach lends itself to integrated assessments of water allocation options in which hydrological, ecological and socioeconomic data sets are combined, and where data is commonly aggregated to a larger scale of interest in response to the requirements of policy makers. The research findings from this thesis provide some insights into how to better manage the impacts of groundwater extraction in connected aquifer-river systems.

Hydrological models have been developed to estimate snow accumulation, snowmelt and snowmelt runoff on the Canadian Prairies; however, their proper scale of application is unknown in the Prairie environment. The first objective of this thesis is to examine the proper scale for pre-melt snow accumulation as snow water equivalent (SWE) and snowmelt in a Prairie first order basin. Spatially distributed and spatially aggregated approaches were used to calculate SWE and snowmelt at St. Denis National Wildlife Area (SDNWA). Both approaches used models with similar physics, but differed in the model scale at which calculations were carried out. The simulated pre-melt SWE, cumulative seasonal SWE, and daily snowmelt from the two modelling approaches were compared to field observations of pre-melt SWE, cumulative seasonal SWE, and daily snowmelt; comparisons of areal cumulative seasonal SWE, areal snowmelt, snowmelt duration, and snow-covered area were also conducted between two modelling approaches. Results from these comparisons showed that both approaches had reasonable and similar accuracy in estimation of SWE and snowmelt. The spatially aggregated approach was more computationally efficient and was selected as a modelling scale for small-sized prairie basins. <p>Another objective of this thesis is to derive a snow hydrology model for the Canadian Prairies. Physically-based hydrological models were assembled in the Cold Regions Hydrological Model Platform (CRHM) using the aggregated approach. Tests of pre-melt SWE and surface snowmelt runoff were conducted at two basins in Saskatchewan Creighton Tributary of Bad Lake and Wetland 109, St. Denis. Results showed that the snow hydrology model had a reasonable capability to simulate SWE and snowmelt runoff to the stream and wetland. <p>Droughts are natural hazards that develop frequently on the Canadian Prairies. Analyzing the impact of drought on hydrological processes and water supply is another objective of this thesis. Synthetic drought scenarios were proposed for the Creighton Tributary of Bad Lake and the corresponding impacts on the snowmelt runoff-related processes were examined. Results indicated that wind redistribution of snow was very sensitive to drought conditions, sublimation of blowing snow and snow-covered period were sensitive to drought, but winter evaporation and infiltration did not show strong trend. The results also showed that drought conditions had magnified effects on the snowmelt runoff and could cause cessation of streamflow. Also, the impacts of the recent 1999-2005 drought on the snowmelt hydrology were investigated at St. Denis. Results illustrated that three-years (1999-2002) of severe winter drought were followed by a normal year (2002-03) and then a two-year (2003-05) recovery period, and then returning to normal (2005-06). Results showed that both snowfall and rainfall during hydrological winter were consistently low for severe drought and surface snowmelt runoff was very much lower during severe drought, about 45-65 mm less compared to that in the normal periods.

Hydrological models have been developed to estimate snow accumulation, snowmelt and snowmelt runoff on the Canadian Prairies; however, their proper scale of application is unknown in the Prairie environment. The first objective of this thesis is to examine the proper scale for pre-melt snow accumulation as snow water equivalent (SWE) and snowmelt in a Prairie first order basin. Spatially distributed and spatially aggregated approaches were used to calculate SWE and snowmelt at St. Denis National Wildlife Area (SDNWA). Both approaches used models with similar physics, but differed in the model scale at which calculations were carried out. The simulated pre-melt SWE, cumulative seasonal SWE, and daily snowmelt from the two modelling approaches were compared to field observations of pre-melt SWE, cumulative seasonal SWE, and daily snowmelt; comparisons of areal cumulative seasonal SWE, areal snowmelt, snowmelt duration, and snow-covered area were also conducted between two modelling approaches. Results from these comparisons showed that both approaches had reasonable and similar accuracy in estimation of SWE and snowmelt. The spatially aggregated approach was more computationally efficient and was selected as a modelling scale for small-sized prairie basins. <p>Another objective of this thesis is to derive a snow hydrology model for the Canadian Prairies. Physically-based hydrological models were assembled in the Cold Regions Hydrological Model Platform (CRHM) using the aggregated approach. Tests of pre-melt SWE and surface snowmelt runoff were conducted at two basins in Saskatchewan Creighton Tributary of Bad Lake and Wetland 109, St. Denis. Results showed that the snow hydrology model had a reasonable capability to simulate SWE and snowmelt runoff to the stream and wetland. <p>Droughts are natural hazards that develop frequently on the Canadian Prairies. Analyzing the impact of drought on hydrological processes and water supply is another objective of this thesis. Synthetic drought scenarios were proposed for the Creighton Tributary of Bad Lake and the corresponding impacts on the snowmelt runoff-related processes were examined. Results indicated that wind redistribution of snow was very sensitive to drought conditions, sublimation of blowing snow and snow-covered period were sensitive to drought, but winter evaporation and infiltration did not show strong trend. The results also showed that drought conditions had magnified effects on the snowmelt runoff and could cause cessation of streamflow. Also, the impacts of the recent 1999-2005 drought on the snowmelt hydrology were investigated at St. Denis. Results illustrated that three-years (1999-2002) of severe winter drought were followed by a normal year (2002-03) and then a two-year (2003-05) recovery period, and then returning to normal (2005-06). Results showed that both snowfall and rainfall during hydrological winter were consistently low for severe drought and surface snowmelt runoff was very much lower during severe drought, about 45-65 mm less compared to that in the normal periods.

In this study, semi-distributed hydrological model studies were carried out with the Mike11 model in Yuvacik dam Basin. The basin with a drainage area of 257.8 km2 is located in 12 km South East of Izmit city in T&uuml / rkiye. The basin is divided into three sub-basins named as Kirazdere, Kazandere and Serindere where each sub-basin is represented by its own characteristics. The largest peaks of inflow were observed when the storm events occur due to both snowmelt and rain. Therefore, observed flows for the period of 2001-2006 were grouped as daily and hourly storm events according to the event types such as rainfall, snowmelt or mixed events. Rainfall- Runoff Model (NAM) module of the model was used for the simulation of daily snowmelt and rain on snow events and Unit Hydrograph Method (UHM) module was used for the simulation of hourly rainfall events. A new methodology is suggested for the determination of Curve Number (CN) of the sub-basins by using the fractional area and topographic index values combined with hourly model simulations. The resulting CN values were used in the UHM module v and the suggested CN approach has been validated with the classical SCS-CN approach with GIS analysis. As a result of the study, the parameters of each sub-basin are calibrated with hourly and daily model simulations. The resulting flows are compared with the observed flows where model efficiency is tested with visual and statistical evaluations. The modeling studies give promising results for the computation of runoff during different seasons of a year.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-12T20:12:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PGEF14MA025.pdf: 2303517 bytes, checksum: 586e9244351171fd190567a253c95e82 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-26 / Nowadays the hydrological modeling is an important tool for obtaining hydrological data flows, commonly used to predict future events, giving support to make decisions in the process of public politics. From the late 1950s, several models with physical basis started to be used to provide information about water deficits and excesses in a region. The TOPMODEL (Topography Based Hydrological Model) is one of these, which is characterized by being a rainfall-runoff developed for this purpose, with the particularity to consider the topography as the main factor in generating runoff and attach the concept of variable area of contribution. In Brazil, the TOPMODEL has been applied in small and medium basins (Silva and Kobyama, 1996), based on this, the main objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of TOPMODEL at the level of a major river basin (1979 km²) in which the hypothesis was that, despite its size, there would be the possibility to calibrate the model due to a probable significant influence of topography in the generation of flows in outfall. Additionally, this study seeks to contribute to the analysis of the influence of different spatial resolutions DMT (Digital Terrain Model) in the distribution of the topographic index and the efficiency of the model in estimating flow rates. The basin was used to study the basin of the Alto Canoas, in an area of 1979 km². It was discretized in the resolution of 0.005 % of the total area. The model was calibrated for the biennium 1996-1997 and validated for the biennium 1998-1999. The model showed good adhesion between the observed and estimated flows, obtaining a Nash-Sutcliffe index of 84.4 % in the validation period. Formonthly series, the model showeda good fitduring the calibration period(Nash Index81.1%) anda low settingfor validation(50.1%) which is acceptableif we consider the difference between the hydrological series. Regarding the analysis of the influence of spatial resolution, it was found that for each spatial resolution of the DMT for obtaining topographic index, there is a set of optimal parameters that best represents the flow. The simulation results indicated the potential of the application of the model in the study area, especially when working with floods / A modelagem hidrológica é hoje uma importante ferramenta para obtenção de dados hidrológicos de vazões, sendo útil para prever eventos futuros, auxiliando no processo de tomada de decisão das políticas públicas. A partir do fim da década de 1950, diversos modelos de base física passaram a ser utilizados para fornecer informações sobre excessos e déficits hídricos em uma região. O TOPMODEL (Topography Based Hydrological Model) é um modelo de base conceitual simplificada, o qual se caracteriza por ser um modelo chuva-vazão, com a particularidade de considerar a topografia como fator principal na geração do escoamento e acoplar o conceito de área variável de contribuição. No Brasil, o TOPMODEL vem sendo estudado em pequenas e médias bacias. O objetivo principal do presente estudo foi avaliar o comportamento do modelo TOPMODEL no nível de uma grande bacia hidrográfica , na qual a hipótese foi de que, apesar de suas dimensões, haveria a possibilidade de calibrar o modelo em razão de uma provável influência significativa do relevo na geração das vazões no exutório. Além disso, esse estudo busca contribuir com a análise da influência de diferentes resoluções espaciais do MDT (Modelo Digital de Terreno) na distribuição do índice topográfico, bem como na eficiência do modelo na estimativa das vazões. A bacia utilizada para o estudo foi a bacia hidrográfica do Alto Canoas, discretizada na resolução de 0,005% da área total. O modelo foi calibrado no biênio 1996-1997 e validado no biênio 1998-1999, utilizando séries diárias e o quinquênio 1980-1984/1985-1989 utilizando séries mensais, respectivamente. Para as séries diárias, o modelo apresentou boa representatividade das vazões observadas, com um Índice de Nash-Sutcliffe de 84,4% no período de validação. Para as séries mensais, o modelo apresentou um bom ajuste no período de calibração (81,1 %) e um baixo ajuste no período de validação (50,1%). Com relação à influência da resolução espacial, verificou-se que para cada resolução espacial do MDT visando à obtenção do índice topográfico, existiria um conjunto ótimo de parâmetros que melhor representa a vazão no exutório da bacia. Os resultados da simulação indicam o potencial de aplicação do modelo na região estudada, principalmente quando se objetiva trabalhar com eventos extremos de precipitações

Com 6 milhões de km2, a bacia Amazônica é o maior sistema hidrográfico do mundo, com descarga estimada de 209.000 m3 s-1, e a maior extensão contínua de floresta tropical. Porém, esta região é alvo de constantes ameaças, seja das pressões por desmatamento, ou por alterações climáticas. Neste contexto, compreender o funcionamento do sistema é essencial, seja para auxiliar na tomada de decisões ou estudos de cenários futuros. Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar e adaptar o modelo hidrológico de grandes bacias Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC v.4.0.5), para as condições tropicais. Foram utilizados dados de descarga, precipitação, temperatura e velocidade do vento, e informações sobre tipo de solo e cobertura vegetal, para simular o ciclo hidrológico em 6 grandes bacias situadas na Amazônia: Santo Antônio do Içá, Japurá, Juruá, Negro, Madeira e Purus. O modelo foi calibrado a partir das descargas mensais, de 1980 a 1990, e seu funcionamento foi verificado para o período de 1990 a 2006. Não foi possível simular o ciclo hidrológico para as bacias com grande contribuição dos Andes, Santo A. Içá e Japurá, uma vez que a estimativa de precipitação nestas regiões é subestimada. Nas outras bacias, o modelo foi capaz de simular corretamente as vazões dos rios, apesar de apresentar problemas na estimativa da evapotranspiração (ET). Foram constatados problemas na partição da ET em seus componentes, transpiração da vegetação e evaporação da água interceptada. Uma possível correção foi avaliada, resultando em uma distribuição mais correta da ET em seus componentes porém, tal modificação resultou em redução da ET média simulada. Uma nova versão do modelo (v.4.1) acaba de ser lançada. Dentre as melhorias, destacam-se modificações na maneira como a ET é calculada, que visa corrigir os problemas aqui relatados. No entanto, tal versão ainda não foi avaliada nas condições tropicais / The Amazon river basin is the largest fluvial system in the world, discharging 209,000 m3 s-1 to the ocean. It also sustains the largest continuous tropical forest system. However, the region is under constant pressure from deforestation and climate change. For such reasons, its crucial to understand how the hydrological cycle functions. Such tools can be used for evaluation of future scenarios and guide decision making. The Variable infiltration Capacity Model (VIC) was evaluated and adapted to tropical conditions. Temperature, precipitation, wind speed, soil type and land cover maps were used to simulate the hydrological cycle in 2 sub-basins inside the Amazon: Santo Antônio do Içá, Japurá, Juruá, Negro, Madeira e Purus, covering the period from 1980 to 2006. The simulation was not possible for basins with large drainage area located in the Andes (Santo A. Içá and Japurá), due to underestimation of the precipitation. For the other basins, simulated discharge agreed with observed records, even though evapotranspiration (ET) estimates showed some problems. The ET partitioning in its components, transpiration and canopy evaporation, showed severe discrepancies. A correction was applied to the model, fixing the partitioning problem but it resulted in reduction of estimate ET. A new version of the model (v.4.1) has just been released, with changes in the way ET is estimated. However, this new version has not yet been tested in the Amazon