Submitted by Haroudo Xavier Filho (haroudo.xavierfo@ufpe.br) on 2016-03-02T18:24:17Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) ALBUQUERQUE, R. T. D. B. de Dissertação (Mestrado em Geografia) - UFPE, Recife, 2015.pdf: 4463625 bytes, checksum: 893f11d15ef2a296ba13982eeb2a2aee (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-02T18:24:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) ALBUQUERQUE, R. T. D. B. de Dissertação (Mestrado em Geografia) - UFPE, Recife, 2015.pdf: 4463625 bytes, checksum: 893f11d15ef2a296ba13982eeb2a2aee (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-07-27 / FACEPE / Este trabalho teve por objetivo geral dar suporte para a previsão de inundações pontuais em bacias hidrográficas de pequeno e médio porte, auxiliando as defesas civis municipais e estaduais na mitigação dos efeitos gerados por eventos naturais extremos. O banco de dados montado para a bacia do rio Capibaribe, contou com dados de precipitação média das estações localizadas na bacia e dados de cota da estação São Lourenço da Mata. Posteriormente foi feito o cálculo da precipitação média da bacia. O tempo de concentração foi calculado em sete dias, utilizando-se a metodologia desenvolvida por Ventura e citada por Araújo et. al. (2001). Posteriormente determinou-se a cota de alerta em 300 cm e então foi aplicado cálculo da probabilidade condicional, da cota em função da chuva acumulada dentro do tempo de concentração, para determinar a probabilidade de o rio atingir ou não a cota de alerta. Nos cinco registros onde essa cota foi atingida o modelo indicou uma probabilidade alta (>50%) em quatro eventos, atingindo assim 80% de acerto. / This study has the general objective to provide support to predict occasional flooding in small and medium sized hydrographic basins, helping municipal and state civil defence with mitigation of the effects of extreme natural events. The database used had average rainfall data of stations located in the basin and data of the quota from São Lourenço da Mata station. The average rainfall data of the basin was calculated. The seven day concentration time was calculated, using Ventura’s methodology, Araújo (2001). Then the 300 cm warning quota was determined and a conditional probability calculation was applied to the quota as a function of rain accumulated in the concentration time, to determine the probability of the river reaching the warning quota. In the five records where the quota was achieved the model indicated a high probability (>50%) in four events, reaching 80% accuracy.

Das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die ausführliche Analyse und Beschreibung langfristiger abiotischer Standortbedingungen von Fluss und Grundwasser für das in einem Hartholzauenwald gelegene Untersuchungsgebiet im Naturschutzgebiet Saalberghau an der Mittleren Elbe bei Dessau. Hierzu erfolgt zunächst die Entwicklung eines allgemeinen Konzeptes, dass die Modellierung des Fluss- und des Grundwasserregimes sowie die statistische Auswertung dieser miteinander verbundenen Regime umfasst. Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass nur eine Synthese dieser Einzelbausteine die Grundlage für eine zusammenhängende Analyse und Beschreibung der komplexen auentypischen Dynamik dieser beiden Regime anhand objektivierbarer statistischer Parameter bilden kann. Darüberhinaus stellt die Zielsetzung auf langfristige Aussagen eine unentbehrliche Voraussetzung dar, um das Zeitspektrum der hier zu betrachtenden Altbäume typischer Hartholzauenbaumarten adäquat berücksichtigen zu können. / The present dissertation aims at a detailed analysis and description of the long-term abiotic site conditions (river flow and groundwater) for the floodplain area under investigation, namely a hardwood forest in the nature reserve "Saalberghau" on the Middle Elbe close to the town Dessau. For this purpose, firstly a general concept which covers the modelling of the surface water and groundwater regime as well as a statistical interpretation of these two interconnected regimes is developed. It is assumed that only a synthesis of those separate modules can form a sufficient basis for a cohering analysis and description of the complex dynamics of these two regimes in floodplain forests by means of objective statistic parameters. Furthermore, only longterm statements can take into account the age spectrum of the hardwood stand.

Das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die ausführliche Analyse und Beschreibung langfristiger abiotischer Standortbedingungen von Fluss und Grundwasser für das in einem Hartholzauenwald gelegene Untersuchungsgebiet im Naturschutzgebiet Saalberghau an der Mittleren Elbe bei Dessau. Hierzu erfolgt zunächst die Entwicklung eines allgemeinen Konzeptes, dass die Modellierung des Fluss- und des Grundwasserregimes sowie die statistische Auswertung dieser miteinander verbundenen Regime umfasst. Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass nur eine Synthese dieser Einzelbausteine die Grundlage für eine zusammenhängende Analyse und Beschreibung der komplexen auentypischen Dynamik dieser beiden Regime anhand objektivierbarer statistischer Parameter bilden kann. Darüberhinaus stellt die Zielsetzung auf langfristige Aussagen eine unentbehrliche Voraussetzung dar, um das Zeitspektrum der hier zu betrachtenden Altbäume typischer Hartholzauenbaumarten adäquat berücksichtigen zu können. / The present dissertation aims at a detailed analysis and description of the long-term abiotic site conditions (river flow and groundwater) for the floodplain area under investigation, namely a hardwood forest in the nature reserve "Saalberghau" on the Middle Elbe close to the town Dessau. For this purpose, firstly a general concept which covers the modelling of the surface water and groundwater regime as well as a statistical interpretation of these two interconnected regimes is developed. It is assumed that only a synthesis of those separate modules can form a sufficient basis for a cohering analysis and description of the complex dynamics of these two regimes in floodplain forests by means of objective statistic parameters. Furthermore, only longterm statements can take into account the age spectrum of the hardwood stand.