The present study examined choice and preference of slot machines between two groups based on the themes of slot machine. Twenty-one participants split into two group based on random assignment. A choice group that had the opportunity to change slot machines at any time, and the preferred choice group that only could play on the most preferred slot machine, were compared on the dependent measures of betting and response latency. Results demonstrated that there was no significant differences between groups on the dependent measure. Further analysis of within subjects demonstrated that wins in one phase was somewhat correlated with bets in the following phase; however, these effects were not at a significant level. Implications of this research are discussed.

Data shows that many inventors continue to expend resources on their inventions even after they have received expert advice suggesting that they cease effort. Using a sample of inventors seeking outside advice from a Canadian evaluative agency, this paper examines how overconfidence, optimism, and illusion of control explain this fact. While overconfidence did not have a significant effect on inventor's decisions, illusion of control and optimism did have an effect. An additional interesting finding is that the more time people have spent working on inventions, the more likely they are to discount this expert advice.

Data shows that many inventors continue to expend resources on their inventions even after they have received expert advice suggesting that they cease effort. Using a sample of inventors seeking outside advice from a Canadian evaluative agency, this paper examines how overconfidence, optimism, and illusion of control explain this fact. While overconfidence did not have a significant effect on inventor's decisions, illusion of control and optimism did have an effect. An additional interesting finding is that the more time people have spent working on inventions, the more likely they are to discount this expert advice.

<p>Tidigare forskning har visat att människor överskattar chanserna för att positiva händelser ska inträffa dem och underskattar riskerna för att negativa händelser ska inträffa dem jämfört med genomsnittet. Detta kallas orealistisk optimism (OO). En faktor som påverkar detta är grad av upplevd kontroll. Studiens huvudsakliga syfte var att undersöka sambanden mellan upplevd kontroll och OO. I en enkätstudie undersöktes OO och upplevd kontroll för diverse händelser. Deltagarna fick t ex svara på hur sannolikt det är att de utsattes för vissa händelser jämfört med genomsnittet. Händelserna var bl a hälsorelaterade. Deltagarna var studenter från en högskola i Mellansverige, 18 män och 109 kvinnor. OO uppstod för alla händelser utom två. Det fanns vissa samband mellan OO och upplevd kontroll. Nytt med studien är att vissa händelser som i tidigare undersökningar skattats som okontrollerbara i själva verket kan upplevas som delvis kontrollerbara. Sambanden mellan OO och upplevd kontroll bör vidare undersökas.</p>

The aim of the represent research was to investigate the relationship between illusion of control, optimism bias, locus of control, and drivers&rsquo / risk-taking behavior among Turkish drivers. A total of 307 drivers completed the Driver Behavior Questionnaire, the Driver Skills Inventory, the Optimism Bias Scale, the Multidimensional Traffic Locus of Control Scale, and Rotter&rsquo / s Internality Externality Scale. In chapter one, comparison between perceived risk as driver and perceived risk as passenger demonstrated existence of illusion f control among drivers. Drivers&rsquo / risk assignments were different when imagining themselves as drivers and passenger. Illusion of control was found to be related to the total number of accidents, especially involvement in active accidents. This indicates a positive relationship between illusion of control and risk-taking behavior. In the second chapter, optimism bias was found in drivers&rsquo / risk likelihood estimations for accident involvement in the future. Drivers estimated their risk of being involved in four types of accidents as less than an average driver. Optimism bias was related to self-reported violations and strong evaluation of driving and safety skills as strong. Young and novice drivers were more realistic in their risk estimations. In the third chapter, relationship between locus of control and risk-taking was investigated. Only fate scale correlated with violations. Drivers who attribute accident causes to fate were more likely to commit violations. The limitations of the current research and implications for further research were discussed.

Tidigare forskning har visat att människor överskattar chanserna för att positiva händelser ska inträffa dem och underskattar riskerna för att negativa händelser ska inträffa dem jämfört med genomsnittet. Detta kallas orealistisk optimism (OO). En faktor som påverkar detta är grad av upplevd kontroll. Studiens huvudsakliga syfte var att undersöka sambanden mellan upplevd kontroll och OO. I en enkätstudie undersöktes OO och upplevd kontroll för diverse händelser. Deltagarna fick t ex svara på hur sannolikt det är att de utsattes för vissa händelser jämfört med genomsnittet. Händelserna var bl a hälsorelaterade. Deltagarna var studenter från en högskola i Mellansverige, 18 män och 109 kvinnor. OO uppstod för alla händelser utom två. Det fanns vissa samband mellan OO och upplevd kontroll. Nytt med studien är att vissa händelser som i tidigare undersökningar skattats som okontrollerbara i själva verket kan upplevas som delvis kontrollerbara. Sambanden mellan OO och upplevd kontroll bör vidare undersökas.

Quando colocadas em situações em que os eventos ambientais são independentes do responder, pessoas podem desenvolver uma expectativa inapropriada de que têm controle comportamental sobre o ambiente. Esse fenômeno é conhecido como ilusão de controle. Este estudo investigou os efeitos de consequências culturais sobre as estimativas de controle apresentadas consensualmente por um trio de participantes, que trabalharam em uma tarefa em que pontos foram apresentados independentemente do responder. 38 universitários de diversos cursos de graduação participaram de 2 experimentos: no Experimento 1, quatro Trios realizaram a tarefa experimental e no Experimento 2, duas Culturas envolveram a substituição de participantes. Duas atividades caracterizavam um ciclo completo: (a) em primeiro lugar, uma tarefa individual na qual pontos foram apresentados na tela do computador, em um esquema múltiplo com componentes de tempo variável e extinção (mult VT EXT). Abaixo do rótulo de pontos, havia um retângulo, que mudava de cor a depender do componente do esquema, manipulável pelos participantes por meio de respostas de teclar na barra de espaço do teclado. (b) Em segundo lugar, após o término da tarefa no computador, os participantes responderam consensualmente sobre o controle que tinham na produção dos pontos em uma escala que variou entre depender pouco (0) e depender muito (10). Consequências culturais foram apresentadas a depender da estimativa de controle e da condição vigente. Na condição A, a consequência cultural foi apresentada contingente a estimativas de controle entre 7 e 10. Já na condição B, a consequência cultural foi contingente a estimativas entre 0 e 3. Os resultados encontrados contribuem tanto para os estudos sobre seleção cultural como os que investigam a ilusão de controle, já que demonstram a seleção de estimativas de controle e efeitos da consequência cultural no responder individual, bem como evidenciam a independência entre comportamento verbal e não verbal em uma situação na qual eventos ambientais são apresentados independentemente do responder / When people are exposed to situations with non-contingent events, they may develop an erroneous expectation of having comportamental control over the environment. This phenomenon is known as illusion of control. This study investigated the effects of cultural consequences on the estimate of control presented consensually by a trio of participants who has taken part in a task in which points were presented independently of what they made. 38 undergraduate students from a variety of courses participated in two experiments: in Experiment 1, four trios completed an experimental task, while in Experiment 2 there were two Cultures involving replacement of participants. Two activities characterized a complete cycle: (a) first of all, a basic individuak task, in which points were presented on the computer screen in a multiple schedule with variable time and extinction components (mult VT EXT). Bellow the points counter, there was a retangle manipulated by the participants by responses on the space bar of a keyborad. The retangles colour changed depending on the schedule component. (b) Then, after completing the computer task, participants consensually answered a question about the control they had in the production of points in a scale from low control (0) to high control (10). Cultural consequences were presented depending on the estimate of control and on the manipulated condition. In condition A, the consequence was presented contingent to estimates of control from 7 to 10; while in condition B the cultural consequence was contingent to estimates from 0 to 3. The results contribute to studies about cultural selection and illusion of control, since they have showed the selection of estimates of control and effects of cultural consequence on individual responding as well as evidence the independency of verbal and non verbal behavior in situations in which environmental events are presented non-contigently

Quando colocadas em situações em que os eventos ambientais são independentes do responder, pessoas podem desenvolver uma expectativa inapropriada de que têm controle comportamental sobre o ambiente. Esse fenômeno é conhecido como ilusão de controle. Este estudo investigou os efeitos de consequências culturais sobre as estimativas de controle apresentadas consensualmente por um trio de participantes, que trabalharam em uma tarefa em que pontos foram apresentados independentemente do responder. 38 universitários de diversos cursos de graduação participaram de 2 experimentos: no Experimento 1, quatro Trios realizaram a tarefa experimental e no Experimento 2, duas Culturas envolveram a substituição de participantes. Duas atividades caracterizavam um ciclo completo: (a) em primeiro lugar, uma tarefa individual na qual pontos foram apresentados na tela do computador, em um esquema múltiplo com componentes de tempo variável e extinção (mult VT EXT). Abaixo do rótulo de pontos, havia um retângulo, que mudava de cor a depender do componente do esquema, manipulável pelos participantes por meio de respostas de teclar na barra de espaço do teclado. (b) Em segundo lugar, após o término da tarefa no computador, os participantes responderam consensualmente sobre o controle que tinham na produção dos pontos em uma escala que variou entre depender pouco (0) e depender muito (10). Consequências culturais foram apresentadas a depender da estimativa de controle e da condição vigente. Na condição A, a consequência cultural foi apresentada contingente a estimativas de controle entre 7 e 10. Já na condição B, a consequência cultural foi contingente a estimativas entre 0 e 3. Os resultados encontrados contribuem tanto para os estudos sobre seleção cultural como os que investigam a ilusão de controle, já que demonstram a seleção de estimativas de controle e efeitos da consequência cultural no responder individual, bem como evidenciam a independência entre comportamento verbal e não verbal em uma situação na qual eventos ambientais são apresentados independentemente do responder / When people are exposed to situations with non-contingent events, they may develop an erroneous expectation of having comportamental control over the environment. This phenomenon is known as illusion of control. This study investigated the effects of cultural consequences on the estimate of control presented consensually by a trio of participants who has taken part in a task in which points were presented independently of what they made. 38 undergraduate students from a variety of courses participated in two experiments: in Experiment 1, four trios completed an experimental task, while in Experiment 2 there were two Cultures involving replacement of participants. Two activities characterized a complete cycle: (a) first of all, a basic individuak task, in which points were presented on the computer screen in a multiple schedule with variable time and extinction components (mult VT EXT). Bellow the points counter, there was a retangle manipulated by the participants by responses on the space bar of a keyborad. The retangles colour changed depending on the schedule component. (b) Then, after completing the computer task, participants consensually answered a question about the control they had in the production of points in a scale from low control (0) to high control (10). Cultural consequences were presented depending on the estimate of control and on the manipulated condition. In condition A, the consequence was presented contingent to estimates of control from 7 to 10; while in condition B the cultural consequence was contingent to estimates from 0 to 3. The results contribute to studies about cultural selection and illusion of control, since they have showed the selection of estimates of control and effects of cultural consequence on individual responding as well as evidence the independency of verbal and non verbal behavior in situations in which environmental events are presented non-contigently

台灣向來展現中小企業旺盛的生命力，近年來國際性評比的報告中指出台灣的經商環境與創業精神皆名列世界前茅，然而失敗是創業活動不可避免的一環，愛迪生曾說過：失敗也是我需要的，它與成功對我一樣有價值。既然人們說失敗為成功之母，創業家實際面對時是否能相信失敗具有價值？向失敗學習日趨重要，市面上亦增加許多向失敗學習以取代傳統成功典範的科普書籍，畢竟成功無法複製，卻能以失敗借鏡。從失敗的經驗累積未來進取成功的機會。本研究以曾有失敗或挫折經驗的創業家作為訪談對象，以深度訪談的方式，了解創業家失敗或挫折過後，針對前次經驗作內外部歸因的分析，進而讓創業家執行行為修正。 　　經過深度訪談與資料分析，本研究得出以下三點結論：(1) 面對原來的挫折時，所啟動的「敗因歸納－學習－反思與行為改變」歷程有下列影響：( i ) 內外部歸因前次的挫折，使創業家得到經驗學習的對象，進行反思。( ii ) 以前次的挫折為基礎，修正自我的行為，改變成不再犯同樣錯誤的。( iii ) 歷程過後，反思後得到內化後的能力將成為面對下次創業的依據之一。(2) 歷程中的行為改變可能引發控制錯覺，而成為下一次創業的失敗原因之一：當創業家在「敗因歸納－學習－反思與行為改變」歷程時，將針對前次挫折經驗視為學習與修正自我的對象，正因為創業家專注在解決與修正前一次的行為，使得歷程中的行為改變中，隱藏了下一次創業活動的行為盲點，而成為了當下檢討歷程的控制錯覺之一。(3)研究發現內外部的歸因與內外部資源有關聯：歷程中將內外部歸因以表格式的分類與分析，將敗因學習與行為修正所得到的回饋，轉而成為創業家實際的自我價值與資源。 / Small and medium enterprises in Taiwan have shown people their great vitality. Recently, the international business reports pointed that the entrepreneurial environment in Taiwan and Taiwanese entrepreneurship are almost on the top world. However, it is unavoidable to make mistakes when people stay in entrepreneurial process. There is a quotes spoken by Thomas A. Edison, “Negative results are just what I want. They're just as valuable to me as positive results.” People say that failure is the mother of success whether can entrepreneur really treat failure as a valuable experience? 　　 　　It has been more and more important to learn from failure. We can easily find lots of books talking about this topic. After all, success can’t be copied but people can be able to learn from failure. People can accumulate experiences from failure and make themselves to be success. This research examines how entrepreneurs do with reflection after being failure. Through interviewing 5 entrepreneurs who had been suffered from failure or frustrated experiences, researcher tried to understand the relationships between those experiences and entrepreneur’s behaviors by attribution theory.Through in-depth interviews and data analysis, there are three main findings. First, the process in “attribute frustration - learning from failure - reflection and behavior adjustment” has 3 significant impacts on the behavior of previous setbacks which help entrepreneur achieve. Second, the behavior adjustment in the process may trigger the illusion of control, which may become one of the failure reasons for the next entrepreneurship. Last, according to the research, the dimensions of attribution and the dimensions of entrepreneur’s resources have connection.

<p>This dissertation focuses on managerial decision making, and specifically explores conditions wherein managers may increase their propensity to escalate commitment towards a failing project. Escalation researchers (e.g. Schmidt and Calantone, 2002) have listed four classes of factors that may impact a manager's propensity to escalate commitment towards a failing project, and have called for research into how exactly these factors impact escalation. In this dissertation, we explore two such factors. The first factor relates to the characteristics of the decision process used by firms to evaluate the project. Here, for example, researchers have looked at whether the manager was also involved in making decisions about the project in a prior period, and Boulding, Morgan and Staelin (1997) have shown that such manager's positive beliefs about the project (formed in a prior period) make a manager more likely to escalate commitment. The second factor relates to project characteristics. Here, for example, researchers have looked at whether or not the project relates to a product that is perceived as new, and Schmidt and Calantone (2002) have shown that managers are more likely to escalate commitment towards a failing project relating to a new product. </p><p>The first dissertation essay uses three experiments to examine how a hitherto unexplored characteristic of the decision process might lead to increasing escalation of commitment. Specifically, building off research into the illusion of control, we examine whether the opportunity to use managerial skill during the decision process makes a manager more willing to escalate commitment towards a failing project. We find that whenever managers act on cues that cause them to think they can use their managerial skill to control some outside factor (even though in reality they cannot), managers overestimate their ability to "control the odds" related to this outside factor. Such beliefs feed forward and lead managers to make suboptimal decisions about the overall project.</p><p>The second dissertation essay looks at how project characteristics might make a manager more (or less) likely to escalate commitment towards a failing project. We explore this issue in the hitherto unexplored real options setting. Real options have emerged as an important part of marketing strategy, and have been used to structure new product alliances, value customers etc. We run a controlled experiment and we examine whether differences in option-structure (which is a project characteristic) impact the propensity to make suboptimal option-exercise decisions. We find that managers are more likely to make suboptimal option-exercise decisions in the case of put options (vis. call options), and - as predicted by the endowment effect literature - this increased propensity to make a suboptimal decision is mediated by/ explained by the psychological ownership construct.</p> / Dissertation