Syftet med föreliggande studie var att försöka reda i litteraturen kring två välkända begrepp inom Affective Forecasting nämligen Impact Bias, som innebär att människor har en tendens att överskatta i vilken utsträckning de kommer att uppleva en viss känsla i en framtida situation än vad som senare visar sig vara fallet, och Empathy Gaps, som innebär att människor har en tendens att underskatta i vilken grad känslotillstånd kommer att påverka deras preferenser i en framtida situation samt pröva dessa begrepp i en och samma enkätundersökning. Etthundra sextiotvå studenter, slumpvist uppdelade i två grupper, Känslogrupp och Preferensgrupp, deltog frivilligt i undersökningen. Enkätundersökningen var en mixad design med grupp (känsla kontra preferens) som mellangruppsfaktor och förtest kontra eftertest som inomgruppsfaktor. I studien visade samtliga gruppers resultat i linje med Impact Bias teorin, dvs. att deltagarna i både Känslogrupp och Preferensgrupp skattade lägre i eftertest (actual) än pretest (forecasting). Resultatet diskuteras bla. utifrån Construal Level Theory, CLT. Förslag på vidare forskning ges.

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<p>Affective forecasting refers to the process of predicting future emotions in response to future events. The overall aim of the present thesis was to investigate, by applying the framework of Affective forecasting, how car users predict their satisfaction with public transport services. Study 1, Part 1 revealed a satisfaction gap between users and non-users of public transport, whereby non-users reported lower satisfaction than users, in overall satisfaction as well as in two quality factors resulting from a factor analysis of a major survey on satisfaction with public transport. It was hypothesized that non-users were biased in their satisfaction reports, something which was subsequently investigated in Study 1, Part 2, where a field experiment revealed that car users suffer from an impact bias in their predictions about future satisfaction with public transport due to being more satisfied with the services after a trial period than they initially predicted they would. Addressing the question of whether or not a focusing illusion is the psychological mechanism responsible for the impact bias, two experiments containing critical incidents were conducted during Study 2, in order to investigate whether or not car users exaggerate the impact of specific incidents upon their future satisfaction with public transport. For car users with a stated intention to change their current travel mode, in Study 2, Part 1, as well as for car users with no stated intention to change their travel mode, in Study 2, Part 2, the negative critical incident generated lower predicted satisfaction with public transport, in support of the hypothesis that the impact bias in car users’ predictions about future satisfaction with public transport is caused by a focusing illusion.</p>

Affective forecasting refers to the process of predicting future emotions in response to future events. The overall aim of the present thesis was to investigate, by applying the framework of Affective forecasting, how car users predict their satisfaction with public transport services. Study 1, Part 1 revealed a satisfaction gap between users and non-users of public transport, whereby non-users reported lower satisfaction than users, in overall satisfaction as well as in two quality factors resulting from a factor analysis of a major survey on satisfaction with public transport. It was hypothesized that non-users were biased in their satisfaction reports, something which was subsequently investigated in Study 1, Part 2, where a field experiment revealed that car users suffer from an impact bias in their predictions about future satisfaction with public transport due to being more satisfied with the services after a trial period than they initially predicted they would. Addressing the question of whether or not a focusing illusion is the psychological mechanism responsible for the impact bias, two experiments containing critical incidents were conducted during Study 2, in order to investigate whether or not car users exaggerate the impact of specific incidents upon their future satisfaction with public transport. For car users with a stated intention to change their current travel mode, in Study 2, Part 1, as well as for car users with no stated intention to change their travel mode, in Study 2, Part 2, the negative critical incident generated lower predicted satisfaction with public transport, in support of the hypothesis that the impact bias in car users’ predictions about future satisfaction with public transport is caused by a focusing illusion.

This thesis investigates individual and interpersonal predictions of future affect and explores their relation to implicit theories of emotion, prediction recall, debiasing, and focalism. Studies 1, 2, and 3 assessed affect predictions to upcoming reasoning tests and academic results, and Studies 4, 5, and 6 concerned predictions for self-identified events. The first study investigated the influence of implicit theories of emotion (ITE; Tamir, John, Srivastava, & Gross, 2007) on impact bias and prediction recall manipulating ITE between participant pairs who predicted and reported their affective reactions to feedback on a test of reasoning skills. Neither impact bias nor recalled predictions were affected by the manipulation. Recalled affect predictions differed from original affect predictions, but were not influenced by experienced affect. Study 2 further investigated the effects of target event timing on impact bias and affect prediction recall. The results showed no differences between individual and interpersonal impact biases across conditions. Again, recalled predictions differed from original predictions, and were not influenced by experienced affect. Study 3 investigated the influence of prior information about impact bias on interpersonal affective forecasting involving real-world exam results. The results demonstrated no differences in predictions due to information, however, significantly less unhappiness was predicted for participants’ friends compared to self-predictions. Study 4 examined the effect of different de-biasing information on affective predictions. The results demonstrated no differences in affective predictions by condition and found that participants’ ITE were not associated to affect predictions. Study 5 examined individual and interpersonal affect predictions using a between-subjects design in place of the within-subjects design. The results demonstrated no differences between the affect predictions made for self and for friends, and ITE were not associated with predictions. Study 6 examined the impact bias in interpersonal affective forecasting and the role of focalism. The results demonstrated distinctions between individual and interpersonal affecting forecasting with individual impact bias for positive reactions for negative events and individual and interpersonal reverse impact bias for calm emotional reactions to positive events. Immune neglect was found not to be associated with predictions. Overall, the studies found evidence for similar individual and interpersonal predictions which are resistant to influence.