Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:26:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:06:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Dissertacao (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Este estudo tem como objetivo a previsão de impactos gerados por tempestades sobre os sistemas praial e de dunas frontais nas costas Leste (praias expostas) e Norte (praias abrigadas) da Ilha de Santa Catarina. A área de estudo abrange as praias entre a Barra da Lagoa e a Praia da Daniela. As respostas da costa frente aos eventos de tempestades foram classificadas em quatro diferentes regimes: Espraiamento (Swash), Colisão (Collision), Sobrelavagem (Overwash) e Inundação (Inundation). A delimitação entre cada regime é baseada na mais alta e mais baixa elevação vertical do nível d’água em relação às características morfológicas da duna frontal (base e crista). Para a Costa Leste, onde as praias são expostas à incidência de ondas, a máxima elevação do nível do mar foi definida pela soma do wave runup, maré astronômica e maré meteorológica, calculada para quatro distintos períodos de retornos (5, 10, 25 e 50 anos). A mais baixa elevação do mar foi definida como sendo a elevação na qual a praia é, na maior parte do tempo, continuamente submersa. Enquanto que para a Costa Norte, onde as praias são abrigadas da incidência das ondas, a máxima elevação do nível do mar durante eventos de tempestades foi calculada levando-se em consideração a soma das marés astronômica e meteorológicas para cada período de retorno analisado; enquanto que a mínima elevação foi representada pelo nível mais alto da maré astronômica. Em ambas as costas, foram adicionados os valores de elevação do nível do mar baseados nas previsões de pior caso do relatório do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas. De acordo com este estudo a elevação do nível médio do mar vem ocorrendo em uma taxa de 4 mm/ano com uma aceleração anual de 0,019 mm/ano². Os resultados mostram que para a maioria das praias expostas não houve mudança de regime entre os períodos de retorno analisados. As exceções foram a porção central da praia dos Ingleses que apresentou passagem do regime de sobrelavagem (5 e 10 anos) para o regime de inundação (25 e 50 anos) e a Praia Brava que foi classificada como sujeita ao regime de colisão para o período de retorno de 5 anos passando a ser classificada como submetida ao regime de sobrelavagem para os demais períodos. O regime de sobrelavagem foi predominante para as praias abrigadas, sendo este o único regime registrado em toda a Costa Norte para o período de 50 anos. / This study aims to forecast the impacts of storms on the beache and foredune system along the East (exposed beaches) and North (sheltered beaches) coast of Santa Catarina Island. The study area covers the beaches between Barra da Lagoa and Daniela Beach. The coastal storm response were classified into four different regimes: Swash, Collision, Overwash and Inundation. The limits between regimes are based on the highest and lowest vertical elevation of the water level in relation to the elevation of geomorphic features of the foredune (base and crest). To the East Coast the maximum rise in sea level was defined as the sum of the wave runup, astronomical tide and storm surge, calculated for four different return periods (5, 10, 25 and 50 years). The lowest elevation of the sea is defined as the elevation at below which the beach is, most of the time, continuously subaqueous. On the North Coast the maximum rise in sea level during storm events was calculated taking into account the sum of astronomical and meteorological tides; the minimum level was defined as the maximum vertical range of astronomical tide for each return period. On both coasts the sea level rise (SLR) based on worst-case of the Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel report predictions was added to the maximun and minimum sea level elevation. According to this study the increase on the mean sea level has been occurring at a rate of 4 mm/year with an annual acceleration of 0.019 mm/ano². The results show that most of the exposed beaches did not change their regimes between the return periods analyzed. The exceptions being the Central-North portion of Ingleses, that went from overwash (RP 5 and 10 years) to inundation (RP 25 and 50 years) and Brava which changed from collision (RP 5 years) to overwash regime (RP 10, 25 and 50 years). Overwash was the predominant regime on sheltered beaches, being the only recorded regime for the 50-year return period.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:26:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:06:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / A interferência antrópica no meio ambiente e conseqüente alteração do clima, é hoje um consenso. Esta interferência climática se dá de forma local, regional e, conjuntamente com os gases de efeito estufa, de forma também global. Essa alteração climática, de maneira reversa, interfere por sua vez, no meio ambiente. Tal ciclo de interferências se processa sob várias formas e resulta em várias conseqüências. Porém o chamado Aquecimento Global é, certamente, o efeito de conseqüências globais de maior impacto. A causa principal do aumento da temperatura (Efeito Estufa) está no uso intensivo que se faz de energéticos fósseis. Assim, para minimizar as mudanças climáticas deve-se focar o esforço principalmente em ações que visem à diminuição, substituição e o uso mais eficiente dos energéticos fósseis. Olhando para o passado, parece que os antigos agricultores podem ter lançado gases estufa desde milênios atrás, alterando de maneira lenta, mas significativa, o clima do planeta muito antes do que na Era Industrial. Confirmada essa teoria, suas conseqüências seriam decisivas para a história do homem na Terra. Por exemplo, as temperaturas atuais de partes da América do Norte e Europa poderiam ser até 4 graus Celsius menores, o suficiente para inviabilizar nessas áreas, a agricultura e, conseqüentemente, o desenvolvimento humano e histórico dessas regiões. Este trabalho tem como foco principal fazer uma retrospectiva sobre algumas culturas que colapsaram frente a problemas ambientais e fazer um histórico das atividades humanas ao longo do tempo, desde os primórdios do homem até a Revolução Industrial, notadamente com o que diz respeito à vi agricultura e pecuária, no sentido da sua interferência na dinâmica natural do clima global e no meio ambiente. Mostrando, através de comparações de dados e inferências, que as emissões dessas atividades tiveram uma magnitude até significativa, comparativamente as mudanças induzidas após a própria Revolução Industrial. Demonstra-se, também, que essa interferência climático-ambiental era inevitável, no sentido que a evolução humana deveu-se a essas mesmas atividades. Outro ponto importante é uma reflexão sobre como a evolução humana (e conseqüentemente sua ciência e tecnologia) irá, porventura, encontrar as soluções dos problemas causados por essas mudanças climáticas e ambientais e a importância, neste contexto, para as soluções de problemas de ordem social / Dissertacao (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Domestic and community low carbon technologies are widely heralded as valuable means for delivering sustainability outcomes in the form of social, economic and environmental (SEE) policy objectives. To accelerate their diffusion they have benefited from a significant number and variety of subsidies worldwide. Considerable aleatory and epistemic uncertainties exist, however, both with regard to their net energy contribution and their SEE impacts. Furthermore the socio-economic contexts themselves exhibit enormous variability, and commensurate uncertainties in their parameterisation. This represents a significant risk for policy makers and technology adopters. This work describes an approach to these problems using Bayesian Network models. These are utilised to integrate extant knowledge from a variety of disciplines to quantify SEE impacts and endogenise uncertainties. A large-scale Object Oriented Bayesian network has been developed to model the specific case of solar photovoltaics (PV) installed on UK domestic roofs. Three specific model components have been developed. The PV component characterises the yield of UK systems, the building energy component characterises the energy consumption of the dwellings and their occupants and a third component characterises the building stock in four English urban communities. Three representative SEE indicators, fuel affordability, carbon emission reduction and discounted cash flow are integrated and used to test the model s ability to yield meaningful outputs in response to varying inputs. The variability in the percentage of the three indicators is highly responsive to the dwellings built form, age and orientation, but is not just due to building and solar physics but also to socio-economic factors. The model can accept observations or evidence in order to create scenarios which facilitate deliberative decision making. The BN methodology contributes to the synthesis of new knowledge from extant knowledge located between disciplines . As well as insights into the impacts of high PV penetration, an epistemic contribution has been made to transdisciplinary building energy modelling which can be replicated with a variety of low carbon interventions.

Sport for development programs are becoming increasingly popular to address a variety of social issues such as poverty, lack of education, gender equality, and conflict within marginalized communities. Within Canada, many sport for development programs are created for Aboriginal peoples, as they are considered marginalized communities. However, there is a dearth of research on what the actual impacts of sport for development programs are on the recipients of the program, as well as on those who provide the program. My thesis, which is written in the publishable paper format, is comprised of two papers. Using a case study approach in paper one, I explore the impacts that Alberta’s Future Leaders Program’s (AFL) youth leadership retreat has had on its participants (Aboriginal youth). Similarly, using a case study approach in paper two, I explore if/how working for AFL had lasting impacts on the former employees, known as youth workers and arts mentors. Together, the two papers in this thesis show the need for a deeper look into the actual impacts sport for development programs yield, provide insights into some of the lasting impacts AFL has had on its participants, and address the importance of long-term evaluation for sport for development programs.

MESMEG / Department of Mining and Environmental Geology / See the attached abstract below

This study investigates how tourism affects the quality of life of residents in tourism destinations that vary in the stage of development. The proposed model in this study structurally depicts that satisfaction with life in general derives from the satisfaction with particular life domains. Overall life satisfaction is derived from material well-being, which includes the consumer's sense of well being as it is related to material possessions, community well-being, emotional well-being, and health and safety well-being domains. The model also posits that residents' perception of tourism impacts (economic, social, cultural, and environmental) affects their satisfaction of particular life domains. Lastly, this study investigates that tourism development stages moderate the relationship between residents' perception of tourism impacts and their satisfaction with particular life domains. Accordingly, the study proposed four major hypotheses: (1) residents' perception of tourism impacts affects their QOL in the community, (2) residents' satisfaction with particular life domains is affected by the perception of particular tourism impact dimensions, (3) residents' satisfaction with particular life domains affects residents' life satisfaction in general, and (4) the relationship between residents' perception of tourism impacts and their satisfaction with particulate life domains is moderated by tourism development stages. The sample population consisting of residents residing in Virginia was surveyed. The sample was proportionally stratified on the basis of tourism development stages covering counties and cities in the state. Three hundreds and twenty-one respondents completed the survey. Structural Equation Modeling and Hierarchical Multiple Regression were used to test study hypotheses. The results revealed that the residents' perception of tourism impacts did affect their satisfaction with particular life domains significantly, and their satisfaction with particular life domains influenced their overall life satisfaction. The hypothesized moderating effect of tourism development stages on the relationship between the perception of tourism impacts and the satisfaction with particular life domains was not supported. The results indicated that the relationship between the economic impact of tourism and the satisfaction with material well-being, and the relationship between the social impact of tourism and the satisfaction with community well-being were strongest among residents in communities characterized to be in the maturity stage of tourism development. This finding is consistent with social disruption theory which postulates that boomtown communities initially enter into a period of generalized crisis, resulting from the traditional stress of sudden, dramatic increases in demand for public services and improving community infrastructure (England and Albrecht's (1984). Additionally, residents develop adaptive behaviors that reduce their individual exposure to stressful situations. Through this process, the QOL of residents is expected to initially decline, and then improve as the community and its residents adapt to the new situation (Krannich, Berry & Greider, 1989). However, when a community enters into the decline stage of tourism development, the relationship between the economic impact of tourism and the satisfaction with material well-being, and the relationship between the social impact of tourism and the satisfaction with community well-being may be considered to be the capacity of the destination area to absorb tourists before the host population would feel negative impacts. This is consistent with the theoretical foundation of carrying capacity, suggesting that when tourism reaches its maturity or maximum limit, residents' QOL may start deteriorating. Further, the relationship between the cultural impact of tourism and the satisfaction with emotional well-being, and the relationship between the environmental impact of tourism and the satisfaction with health and safety well-being were strongest in the decline stage of tourism development. Neither the theories of social carrying capacity nor social disruption offered much to explain this result. However, this result is consistent with Butler's (1980) argument that in the decline stage, more tourist facilities disappear as the area becomes less attractive to tourists and the viability of existing tourist facilities becomes more available to residents in the destination community. As residents' perception of negative environmental impacts increases, their satisfaction with health and safety well-being decreases in the decline stage of tourism development unless the area as a destination provides rejuvenating or alternative planning options. It has been well established that residents in certain types of tourism communities might perceive a certain type of tourism impact unacceptable, while in other communities, the same impact type may be more acceptable. Thus, the study suggests that the proposed model should be further tested and verified using longitudinal data. / Ph. D.

This study provides a critique of regional base method for population and employment impacts. It uses a new approach to calculate the regional employment multiplier. The new approach tries to preserve the advantages of the regional base method and at the same time avoid some of the problems associated with it. This study estimates the changes in local service employment by industry and population in Uintah County, Utah, resulting from an oil shale development project with a 100,000 barrel-per-day capacity and an operating labor force of 2500. It also estimates the changes in total local service employment and population on a yearly basis for a period of 20 years.

Les changements d’usage des terres à des fins de développement s'accompagnent toujours de conflits entre les différentes parties prenantes, en particulier dans le cadre de la construction ou de l'expansion de projets de développement dans les pays en voie de développement. C’est le cas des projets d'infrastructure comme les barrages hydrauliques et de leurs conséquences à la fois positives et négatives. Dans ces projets les conflits émergent en raison des problèmes liés aux attentes foncières, ainsi qu’aux intérêts divergents des différentes parties prenantes. En fonction de leur intensité, ils apparaissent alors sous différentes formes, avec des impacts importants sur les populations locales.La thèse traite des conflits qui surgissent entre les différents acteurs liés au projet de construction du barrage Diamer Bhasha au Pakistan, ainsi de leurs impacts socioéconomiques sur les personnes affectées. Ce projet a commencé à faire face à des oppositions concernant les acquisitions de terres et provoqué des manifestations, des actions en justice, le blocage des routes et des menaces à l’égard des promoteurs du projet.Afin d'analyser les conflits et d'évaluer les impacts socioéconomiques du projet, nous avons utilisé différentes sources de données primaires et secondaires. 61 entretiens ont ainsi été réalisés avec des experts et des parties prenantes appartenant à différents domaines.De plus, 289 articles de différents quotidiens nationaux et régionaux concernant les conflits et les impacts socioéconomiques du barrage ont été étudiés afin de vérifier et de corroborer ces informations. En outre, certains documents publiés par des organisations, publiques et privées, ont également été consultés. Les résultats révèlent différents conflits entre les personnes affectées et le Gouvernement, ainsi qu’entre différents groupes locaux d’acteurs, au sujet des compensations foncières et des droits de propriété. L’étude met en évidence les problèmes posés par le projet au niveau socio‐économiques, qui concernent en particulier un plan de réinstallation inefficace et la perte massive d'emplois. En outre, il explore les causes profondes des conflits, dues à la mauvaise planification, la mauvaise gouvernance, la mauvaise gestion, la corruption et le népotisme dans les différentes activités du projet. L’absence de participation de toutes les parties prenantes et la diffusion inexistante de l'information sur les activités du projet, sont également de très importantes sources de conflits entre les différents acteurs. Enfin, le travail présente des mesures de politiques et des recommandations pour une meilleure gouvernance, en termes de renforcement des capacités des populations locales dans différents domaines et de participation de toutes les parties prenantes à l’ensemble des composantes du projet. / Land use change for the purpose of development always comes with conflicts among different stakeholders, especially under the construction or expansion of developmental projects in developing countries. Thus, infrastructural projects like dams have both positive and negative consequences in this regard. The conflicts in such projects emerge with view of issues associated with the superposition of land expectation, as well as different stakeholders' interests. They appear in different forms, depending upon their intensity, with severe impacts on local people. The article deals with conflicts arising among different actors and their socioeconomic impacts on affected people, due to construction of Diamer Bhasha Dam project in Pakistan. This project started facing opposition from land acquisition and encouraged protestations, legal action in court, road blockage, threatening the project contractor, and violation.In order to analyze the conflicts and to assess the socioeconomic impacts of the project, we used both primary and secondary data sources. About 61 interviews with experts and stakeholders of different backgrounds were conducted.Moreover, under the secondary source about 289 articles from different national and regional dailies on conflicts and socioeconomics impacts of the Dam were studied in order to cross check the information. Further, some literature published by public and private organizations was also consulted.Preliminary results show different conflicts between affected people and Government and also among different groups of locally affected people, over land compensations and property rights. This study further highlights the socioeconomic issues of the project in the form of ineffective resettlement plan and loss of employment opportunities. It further, explores the root causes of conflicts, due to poor planning and governance, mismanagement, corruption and cronyism in different project activities. Lack of participation of all stakeholders and proper information dissemination about all project activities are also main source of conflicts among different actors. Finally, it provides policy measures and recommendations for better governance in the form of capacity building of local people in different areas and participation of all stakeholders in all project activities.

With the growing threat of orbital debris impacts to space structures, the development of space shielding concepts has been a critical research topic. In this study, numerical simulations of the hypervelocity impact response of stacked aluminum 6061-T6 sheets were performed to assess the effects of layering on penetration resistance. This work was initially motivated by set of experimental tests where a stack of four aluminum sheets of equal thickness was observed to have a higher hypervelocity ballistic resistance than a monolithic aluminum sheet with the same total thickness. A set of smoothed particle hydrodynamic simulations predicted a 40% increase in the ballistic limit for a 6-layer target compared to a monolithic sheet. In addition, the effect of variable sheet thickness and sheet ordering on the impact resistance was investigated, while still maintaining a constant overall thickness. A set of thin layers in front of a thick layer generally lead to a higher predicted ballistic limit than the inverse configuration. This work demonstrates an increase in the performance of advanced space shielding structures associated with multi-layering. This suggests that it may be possible to dramatically improve the performance of such structures by tailoring the material properties, interfaces, and layering concepts.