A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management of the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg in 50% requirement of the requirements of the degree of Master in Management (in the field of Public and Development Management) June, 2017 / The role of the state and how it drives industrialisation has received renewed attention in the wake of the global economic meltdown. The purpose of this study was to determine if industrial policy implementation in South Africa is geared towards import substitution, with specific focus on the plastics sector. The study was undertaken as a qualitative research with one on one semi structured interviews with policy makers and analysts from Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), independent research body The Centre for Competition Regulation and Economic Development (CCRED), independent consultant and representative of industry from Plastics SA and documentary analysis of strategic documents from CCRED, DTI and Industrial Development Corporation (IDC). Industrialisation in the plastics sector has in the main been export oriented the study found. Furthermore, the study found that there is a need to target plastics sub sectors with high value to spur the growth of the plastics sector and create much needed jobs. Financial incentives are available to the sector but accessed mainly by fewer big firms. / MT2017

The impact of the World Depression of 1929 and the 2nd World War on many developing countries has been significant in terms of economic and political changes. Among the important transformations, changes in accumulation models, political discourses, balance of class forces and/or political regimes can be mentioned. The main objective of this thesis is to undertake a critical review of the debates centring on the concept of populism in Latin America as well as in Turkey so as to account for these changes. The predominant tendency in these debates has been to establish a correlation between populist policies and/or import substitution industrialisation strategy. In this study it is argued that, the line of thought which tried to analyse the developments in Argentina and Brazil as well as in Turkey from 1929 until the 1980s on the basis of such a correlation does not provide an adequate explanation. Instead, it is proposed that the concept of populism can enhance our understanding to the extent that it is conceived as a hegemonic project.

In this thesis I have examined the role of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in fuelling hostcountries economic developments. By looking closer into Mexico and the case of automobile industry which has been historically the subject of control of foreign affiliates I observed coinciding patterns. Through North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) the channels between trade and investments have become more obvious and even transparent. Speaking about Mexico’s economic developments, albeit the total volumes of trade have increased, the country’s terms-of- trade were deteriorating following the post-NAFTA years. While conducting the research I have made use of neo-liberal economic discourses, theories of international trade and investment in order to explain the underlying motives for free-trade. These motives offer solid arguments to adopt the strategy of export orientation. While investigating the investments form multinationals and comparable Mexican trade performance, I have fund that exports and FDI flows have seemingly unrelated. The country has been a significant receiver of foreign imports at the time of post-NAFTA developments and huge FDI inflows. The result was that capacity of domestic production was limited and the trade imbalance ensured. Analysis explores closer relation between FDI and the country’s import levels which cause deterioration in the terms of trade and economic growth. The explanation lies in the nature of FDI per se. The type of investment in Mexico is essentially market-seeking, since it adjusts to the international competitive pressures, and search access to comparatively advantageous foreign markets, explained by the theory of capital movements. This paper also questions and raises concern with regard to the consequences of these pressures that leads to race-to-the-bottom policies.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1998. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 287-326).

Orientador: Mário Augusto Bertella / Banca: Suzana Cristina Fernandes de Paiva / Banca: Cláudia Alessandra Tessari / Resumo: A industrialização foi um processo transformador para as sociedades modernas, alterando as relações sociais e econômicas. Na África do Sul, teve a peculiaridade de ocorrer em conjunto com o regime de apartheid, o que por muitas vezes desviou os estudos acadêmicos para a negligência com os direitos humanos e relações políticas. Diante disto, o objetivo do presente estudo é fazer uma análise das motivações, contexto, condução e resultados da política de substituição de importações sul-africana, amparada na teoria disponível sobre o tema, nos estudos específicos sobre essa experiência de política e, também, em dados secundários. A industrialização da África do Sul apresenta algumas indústrias relacionadas à mineração que são fortificadas com os incentivos do Governo depois da Primeira Guerra Mundial. No pós-guerra, inicia-se uma política de substituição mais elaborada, em conjunto com a criação de estatais, outros incentivos e o apartheid. Apesar do crescimento econômico e o desenvolvimento industrial alcançados na época, o apartheid ao mesmo tempo que forneceu mão de obra barata inicialmente, potencializou as distorções causadas pela política de substituição de importações, além de causar pressão internacional e conflitos internos / Abstract: Industrialization was a transformative process for modern societies, changing social and economic relations. In South Africa, it had the peculiarity of occurring in conjunction with the apartheid regime, which has often diverted academic studies to neglect of human rights and political relations. The objective of the present study is to analyze the motivations, context, conduction and results of the South African import substitution policy, based on the available theory on the subject, in the specific studies on this policy experience, and also in secondary data. South Africa's industrialization features some mining-related industries that are fortified with government incentives after the First World War. In the post-war period, it began a more elaborate policy of substitution, in conjunction with state-building, other incentives and apartheid. Despite the economic growth and the industrial development achieved at the time, apartheid simultaneously provided cheap labor initially and potentialized the distortions caused by the import substitution policy and cause international pressure and internal conflicts / Mestre

xiii, 124 p. : ill. (some col.) / This dissertation emphasizes three aspects of structural change in economic development. Structural change is the process by which the distribution of economic output shifts from one sector to another and is crucial to understanding overall economic growth. The first chapter demonstrates that property rights and the relative value of land in rural credit markets have significant implications for the rate and level of economic development. When borrowers have little net worth, access to credit is limited and the transition from agriculture to industry proceeds at a slower rate. A quantitative model provides estimates of the welfare cost of such frictions. The second chapter argues that differential costs of technology adoption across developing countries can explain the failure of some import-substitution strategies. An analytical model demonstrates the importance of such adoption costs, and an empirical section finds evidence in support of it. The primary result is that import-substituting policies aimed at rapid industrialization may in fact inhibit economic growth, explaining why some countries have experienced lower rates of economic development. The third chapter uses a robust econometric procedure to estimate sector-specific productivity growth for a sample of OECD countries. It finds that the sources of productivity growth vary widely across countries. Productivity growth is not concentrated in industrial sectors alone but can also result from advances in service sectors. / Committee in charge: Dr. Shankha Chakraborty, Chair; Dr. Chris Ellis, Member; Dr. Bruce Blonigen, Member; Dr. Jean Stockard, Outside Member

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No. of bitstreams: 1 soares_dam_me_arafcl.pdf: 1490298 bytes, checksum: 518333f82ddab2cddc2ecd9511f2c125 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-09-28 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A industrialização foi um processo transformador para as sociedades modernas, alterando as relações sociais e econômicas. Na África do Sul, teve a peculiaridade de ocorrer em conjunto com o regime de apartheid, o que por muitas vezes desviou os estudos acadêmicos para a negligência com os direitos humanos e relações políticas. Diante disto, o objetivo do presente estudo é fazer uma análise das motivações, contexto, condução e resultados da política de substituição de importações sul-africana, amparada na teoria disponível sobre o tema, nos estudos específicos sobre essa experiência de política e, também, em dados secundários. A industrialização da África do Sul apresenta algumas indústrias relacionadas à mineração que são fortificadas com os incentivos do Governo depois da Primeira Guerra Mundial. No pós-guerra, inicia-se uma política de substituição mais elaborada, em conjunto com a criação de estatais, outros incentivos e o apartheid. Apesar do crescimento econômico e o desenvolvimento industrial alcançados na época, o apartheid ao mesmo tempo que forneceu mão de obra barata inicialmente, potencializou as distorções causadas pela política de substituição de importações, além de causar pressão internacional e conflitos internos. / Industrialization was a transformative process for modern societies, changing social and economic relations. In South Africa, it had the peculiarity of occurring in conjunction with the apartheid regime, which has often diverted academic studies to neglect of human rights and political relations. The objective of the present study is to analyze the motivations, context, conduction and results of the South African import substitution policy, based on the available theory on the subject, in the specific studies on this policy experience, and also in secondary data. South Africa's industrialization features some mining-related industries that are fortified with government incentives after the First World War. In the post-war period, it began a more elaborate policy of substitution, in conjunction with state-building, other incentives and apartheid. Despite the economic growth and the industrial development achieved at the time, apartheid simultaneously provided cheap labor initially and potentialized the distortions caused by the import substitution policy and cause international pressure and internal conflicts.

The aim of this thesis is to analyze the change in response of Latin American governments to the economic crisis and thus the change in the character of protectionist measures applied. How do the means of the protection of domestic market change? How does the financial globalization reflect in the Latin American protectionism? What are the further perspectives of the development of Latin American countries? The thesis is divided into three chapters. The first chapter examines the forms of protectionism in the reaction to economic crisis of the 20th century. Firstly, it presents Latin America as a traditionally protectionist region in the period of the import substitution industrialization, secondly it focuses on governments' reactions to the cyclic crises of the 80s and 90s that were caused by the liberalization of the capital accounts and high sensitivity of Latin American economies to the sudden stop on financial markets. The second chapter is devoted to the current global economic crisis. It analyses the means of trade and financial protectionism. Simultaneously, it compares the protectionist measures used to the ones employed in previous periods. The final part of the thesis explores further perspectives of Latin American regionalism and improved macroeconomic stability of Latin American economies.

Import substitution presents many economic development opportunities that can help regions achieve greater economic sustainability and self-reliance. Yet import substitution is largely neglected in economic development theory, practice and literature. There are few methods and resources available to planners trying to identify import substitution opportunities. However, impending economic challenges, such as energy market instability, climate change and carbon emissions regulation, mean that planners will be called upon with greater frequency and urgency to help regional economies adapt. This study offers and evaluates two methods for identifying import substitution opportunities within a regional economy. The first method is rooted in economic base theory, the dominant approach to regional economic development since the 1930s. The second method is derived from industrial cluster analysis, a much-used economic planning approach since the 1990s. Analysis of these two methods and their application to the Springfield, Massachusetts Metropolitan Statistical Area suggest that: 1) both methods show promise as screening tools to help planners focus economic development resources on subsequent industry research efforts, such as surveys, which are essential to the development of effective policy initiatives; 2) the industrial cluster analysis method is capable of identifying a wider range of candidate industries; 3) the economic base theory method may be more effective in smaller regions; and 4) the economic base theory method is useful for estimating leakage. The study also demonstrates that import substitution integrates aspects of economic base theory, particularly the capability to identify leakage and opportunities to increase industry multipliers, with the facets of industrial cluster analysis that emphasize local interindustry linkages and value chain networks.

This study uses annual data for the period 1975-2014 for South Africa and Botswana, and 1979-2013 for Lesotho to examine empirically the impact of trade openness on economic growth in these three South African Customs Union (SACU) countries. The motivation for this study is that SACU countries are governed by the common agreement for the union that oversees the movement of goods that enter the SACU area. However, although these countries are in a com-mon union, they have quite different levels of development. Based on the country’s level of development, Lesotho is a lower middle-income and least developed country, whereas Botswana and South Africa are upper middle-income economies. Thus, these disparities in the levels of economic development of SACU countries i are expected to have different implications in relation to the extent to which trade openness affects economic growth. It is within this background that the current study seeks to examine what impact trade openness has on economic growth in each of the three selected countries. To check the robustness of the empirical results, this study uses four equations based on four different indicators of trade openness to examine the linkage between trade openness and economic growth. While Equation 1, Equation 2 and Equation 3 employ trade-based indicators of openness, Equation 4 uses a modified version of the UNCTAD (2012a) trade openness index that incorporates differences in country size and geography. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modelling, the study found that the impact of trade openness on economic growth varies across the three SACU countries. Based on the results for the first three equations, the study found that trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in South Africa and Botswana, whereas it has no significant impact on economic growth in Lesotho. Based on Equation 4 results, the study found that after taking the differences in country size and geography into account, trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in Botswana, but an insignificant impact in South Africa and Lesotho. For South Africa and Botswana, the main recommendation from this study is that policy makers should pursue policies that promote total trade to increase economic growth in both the short and the long run. For Lesotho, the study recommends, among other things, the adoption of policies aimed at enhancing human capital and infrastructural development as well as the broadening of exports, so as to enable the economy to grow to a threshold level necessary for the realisation of significant gains from trade. / Economics