In this thesis an incident prediction model is formulated and calibrated. The primary idea of the model developed is to correlate the expected number of crashes on any section of a freeway to a set of traffic stream characteristics, so that a reliable estimation of likelihood of crashes can be provided on a real-time basis. Traffic stream variables used as explanatory variables in this model are termed as “incident precursors”. The most promising incident precursors for the model formulation for this research were determined by reviewing past research. The statistical model employed is the categorical log-linear model with coefficient of speed variation and occupancy as the precursors. Peak-hour indicators and roadway-type indicators were additional categorical variables used in the model. The model was calibrated using historical loop detector data and crash reports, both of which were available from test beds in Austin, Texas. An examination of the calibrated model indicated that the model distinguished different levels of crash rate for different precursor values and hence could be a useful tool in estimating the likelihood of incidents for real-time freeway incident management systems.

There are several databases collecting information on various types of incidents, and most analyses performed on these databases usually do not expand past basic trend analysis or counting occurrences. This research uses the more robust methods of data mining and text mining to analyze the Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance (HSEES) system data by identifying relationships among variables, predicting the occurrence of injuries, and assessing the value added by the text data. The benefits of performing a thorough analysis of past incidents include better understanding of safety performance, better understanding of how to focus efforts to reduce incidents, and a better understanding of how people are affected by these incidents. The results of this research showed that visually exploring the data via bar graphs did not yield any noticeable patterns. Clustering the data identified groupings of categories across the variable inputs such as manufacturing events resulting from intentional acts like system startup and shutdown, performing maintenance, and improper dumping. Text mining the data allowed for clustering the events and further description of the data, however, these events were not noticeably distinct and drawing conclusions based on these clusters was limited. Inclusion of the text comments to the overall analysis of HSEES data greatly improved the predictive power of the models. Interpretation of the textual data?s contribution was limited, however, the qualitative conclusions drawn were similar to the model without textual data input. Although HSEES data is collected to describe the effects hazardous substance releases/threatened releases have on people, a fairly good predictive model was still obtained from the few variables identified as cause related.

The term incident management system (IMS) denotes a particular approach employed by many fire departments. The IMS aims to manage diverse resources at a wide variety of emergency scenes. Due to the barrier of culture, different task grouping and etc... , Taipei Fire Department Rescue Team is the only fire fighting unit implementing IMS in Taiwan for the time being. This research aims to find out the important factors for fire departments in Taiwan if they want to implement IMS. Our inductive study conducted 23 experts to explore the factors. Based on progressive discussions with the experts group, we summarized and clarified the key points and identify 22 factors of IMS. Furthermore, a five perspectives and 22-factors questionnaire was prepared to conduct a quantitative method. This research applied the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to facilitate the decision of CSF. In general, this research suggests ¡§resource management¡¨ should be viewed as the most important factors among the five perspectives. While within the five perspectives, there are five critical success factors, which are ¡§formulate SOP¡¨, ¡§clear group and division¡¨, ¡§set up resource management unit¡¨, ¡§recruit more firefighters¡¨ and ¡§improving incident commander abilities¡¨, for the fire departments in Taiwan as a reference to implement IMS.

In this thesis an incident prediction model is formulated and calibrated. The primary idea of the model developed is to correlate the expected number of crashes on any section of a freeway to a set of traffic stream characteristics, so that a reliable estimation of likelihood of crashes can be provided on a real-time basis. Traffic stream variables used as explanatory variables in this model are termed as “incident precursors”. The most promising incident precursors for the model formulation for this research were determined by reviewing past research. The statistical model employed is the categorical log-linear model with coefficient of speed variation and occupancy as the precursors. Peak-hour indicators and roadway-type indicators were additional categorical variables used in the model. The model was calibrated using historical loop detector data and crash reports, both of which were available from test beds in Austin, Texas. An examination of the calibrated model indicated that the model distinguished different levels of crash rate for different precursor values and hence could be a useful tool in estimating the likelihood of incidents for real-time freeway incident management systems.

Prof. Potter examines the implications of the Charter 08 manifesto issued by leading Chinese intellectuals. The Communist Party is faced with a challenge that, in time, offers it a way around the governance roadblocks that threaten China’s further development.

This work aims to contribute to existing knowledge concerning the command and management of fire service operations on the incident ground in Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service during the years 1993 to 2000.

Doctor of Philosophy(PhD) / The importance of better understanding error and safety in the community setting is widely accepted, with recent calls to promote efforts and improve resources in this area of research (Jacobson, Elwyn et al. 2003). The measurement of patient safety events in primary care is a relatively under-researched area and it is well recognized that there are large gaps in the research describing patient safety in ambulatory settings (Hammons, Piland et al. 2003). Attitudes towards embracing safety event measurement have improved in recent years, however there remains a substantial amount of work to be done before common standards can be recommended, despite recent calls in the scientific literature for national and international systems (Runciman, Williamson et al. 2006). This thesis describes the Threats to Australian Patient Safety (TAPS) study, which aimed to create a secure anonymous web-based error reporting system suited to the Australian general practice setting, and then describe and quantify the errors reported by a representative random sample of Australian general practitioners. The study was made possible with the support of funding from a National Health and Medical Research Council project grant, and also gained support from NSW Health and the Commonwealth Department of Health and Aging in the form of granting qualified privilege and providing essential Medicare data under legal instrument. The study methodology involved the development of a database management system which created an electronic method for managing and analysing a wide variety of vii features related to large numbers of anonymously reported errors from Australian general practice. A representative random sample of 84 general practitioners (GPs) from New South Wales (NSW) participated in the study, with over 400 errors reported in a 12 month period. The key messages arising from the TAPS study were: • GPs embraced anonymous patient safety event reporting using a secure website, with the majority of study participants making reports • New findings from this study on the incidence of reported error in general practice were published in the scientific literature, which will help guide the design of future error reporting systems • A new taxonomy to describe reported error from GPs was developed as part of this study and published in the scientific literature, with the view of allowing future self-coding of reported patient safety events by GPs The TAPS study presented the first calculations known worldwide of the incidence of reported error in a general practice setting using a representative random sample of general practitioners. It was found that if an anonymous, secure, web-based reporting system was provided, approximately 2 errors were reported by general practitioners per 1000 patients seen per year (Makeham, Kidd et al. 2006). In addition, the study created a simple descriptive general practice based error taxonomy, entitled the TAPS taxonomy (see Appendix 10) (Makeham, Stromer et al. 2007), and was the first study to test the reproducibility of the application of such a viii tool using a group of general practitioners. The TAPS taxonomy developed as part of this study was found to have a good level of inter-coder agreement. With respect to the underlying causes of errors, the TAPS study found that the majority of reported patient safety events were errors related to the processes of health care (70%), rather than errors related to the knowledge and skills of health professionals (30%). Most errors reported in the TAPS study had the direct involvement of a patient (93% of error reports). Overall the reporting general practitioners were very familiar with these patients, who were on average 52 years old, and more often female (56%). Around one quarter of the errors reported was associated with patients being harmed. Reports containing events related to processes of health care were associated less with harm than those containing events related to the knowledge and skills of health professionals. The patients in errors associated with patient harm reported in the TAPS study were on average older than patients in reports where no harm was known to have occurred (58 years versus 50 years respectively). There was no statistically significant difference found between these groups with respect to gender or ethnicity, including people from Non-English speaking backgrounds or Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (ATSI) peoples, although the association with the latter group approached statistical significance. ix Cases of patient death were reported in 8 of 415 errors reported in the TAPS study (2%), and more often involved events relating to the knowledge and skills of health professionals than events relating to the processes of health care compared to reports not involving a known patient death. In support of suggestions in the scientific literature about the importance of anonymity as a feature of an error reporting system, a feedback interview found that an anonymous reporting system was a factor which made participants more likely to report error events, with two thirds of participants agreeing that anonymity made them more likely to participate in reporting. The majority of participants found the reporting process easy to undertake, and took approximately 6 minutes to send a report. The study provided a self directed learning educational activity for participating general practitioners that was approved for 30 group 1 Quality Assurance and Continuing Education points by the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP). An important practical outcome of the TAPS study was that it highlighted a systematic error relating to immunisation failures with meningococcal vaccines which was reported to relevant organisations including NSW Health, the RACGP and the manufacturer involved, which was addressed with educational materials for GPs being distributed and communication in Australian Family Physician. x There are further analyses that could be undertaken using the TAPS data to improve our understanding of the errors reported, such as further statistical analyses using techniques such as building a model with multiple regression to determine significant factors that contribute to different error types. This work was beyond the scope of the TAPS study aims, but is part of further research recommendations. In addition, future studies should address aspects of patient safety and reported error that it would not be possible to capture from the perspective of the reporting GP. Rather than one taxonomy which describes the reported errors from the GP’s perspective in the way that the TAPS taxonomy does, it may be useful to develop a series of interlinked taxonomies that are directed to the needs of differing constituencies, such as the organisation providing health funds or the health insurer, the health regulators and legislators, and the patients or their significant others. The assessment of potential and actual harms sustained by patients involved in reported errors is a further area of patient safety research that is difficult to comprehensively assess, and existing reporting systems in the literature, whilst addressing this from the reporter’s perspective, require further work to improve the accuracy by which harm is measured and correlated with other data sets such as those managed by health insurers, and the experiences of people who are the subject of the reports. The TAPS study presents a number of new findings about the nature of error and threats to patient safety that arise in the Australian health care environment, reported by a representative sample of general practitioners, and it is hoped that these will be xi useful to all stakeholders in the health care setting, from clinicians, through to policy makers, and most importantly the patients who are the subject of the potentially preventable harms and near misses that are highlighted in this thesis

Doctor of Philosophy(PhD) / The importance of better understanding error and safety in the community setting is widely accepted, with recent calls to promote efforts and improve resources in this area of research (Jacobson, Elwyn et al. 2003). The measurement of patient safety events in primary care is a relatively under-researched area and it is well recognized that there are large gaps in the research describing patient safety in ambulatory settings (Hammons, Piland et al. 2003). Attitudes towards embracing safety event measurement have improved in recent years, however there remains a substantial amount of work to be done before common standards can be recommended, despite recent calls in the scientific literature for national and international systems (Runciman, Williamson et al. 2006). This thesis describes the Threats to Australian Patient Safety (TAPS) study, which aimed to create a secure anonymous web-based error reporting system suited to the Australian general practice setting, and then describe and quantify the errors reported by a representative random sample of Australian general practitioners. The study was made possible with the support of funding from a National Health and Medical Research Council project grant, and also gained support from NSW Health and the Commonwealth Department of Health and Aging in the form of granting qualified privilege and providing essential Medicare data under legal instrument. The study methodology involved the development of a database management system which created an electronic method for managing and analysing a wide variety of vii features related to large numbers of anonymously reported errors from Australian general practice. A representative random sample of 84 general practitioners (GPs) from New South Wales (NSW) participated in the study, with over 400 errors reported in a 12 month period. The key messages arising from the TAPS study were: • GPs embraced anonymous patient safety event reporting using a secure website, with the majority of study participants making reports • New findings from this study on the incidence of reported error in general practice were published in the scientific literature, which will help guide the design of future error reporting systems • A new taxonomy to describe reported error from GPs was developed as part of this study and published in the scientific literature, with the view of allowing future self-coding of reported patient safety events by GPs The TAPS study presented the first calculations known worldwide of the incidence of reported error in a general practice setting using a representative random sample of general practitioners. It was found that if an anonymous, secure, web-based reporting system was provided, approximately 2 errors were reported by general practitioners per 1000 patients seen per year (Makeham, Kidd et al. 2006). In addition, the study created a simple descriptive general practice based error taxonomy, entitled the TAPS taxonomy (see Appendix 10) (Makeham, Stromer et al. 2007), and was the first study to test the reproducibility of the application of such a viii tool using a group of general practitioners. The TAPS taxonomy developed as part of this study was found to have a good level of inter-coder agreement. With respect to the underlying causes of errors, the TAPS study found that the majority of reported patient safety events were errors related to the processes of health care (70%), rather than errors related to the knowledge and skills of health professionals (30%). Most errors reported in the TAPS study had the direct involvement of a patient (93% of error reports). Overall the reporting general practitioners were very familiar with these patients, who were on average 52 years old, and more often female (56%). Around one quarter of the errors reported was associated with patients being harmed. Reports containing events related to processes of health care were associated less with harm than those containing events related to the knowledge and skills of health professionals. The patients in errors associated with patient harm reported in the TAPS study were on average older than patients in reports where no harm was known to have occurred (58 years versus 50 years respectively). There was no statistically significant difference found between these groups with respect to gender or ethnicity, including people from Non-English speaking backgrounds or Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (ATSI) peoples, although the association with the latter group approached statistical significance. ix Cases of patient death were reported in 8 of 415 errors reported in the TAPS study (2%), and more often involved events relating to the knowledge and skills of health professionals than events relating to the processes of health care compared to reports not involving a known patient death. In support of suggestions in the scientific literature about the importance of anonymity as a feature of an error reporting system, a feedback interview found that an anonymous reporting system was a factor which made participants more likely to report error events, with two thirds of participants agreeing that anonymity made them more likely to participate in reporting. The majority of participants found the reporting process easy to undertake, and took approximately 6 minutes to send a report. The study provided a self directed learning educational activity for participating general practitioners that was approved for 30 group 1 Quality Assurance and Continuing Education points by the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP). An important practical outcome of the TAPS study was that it highlighted a systematic error relating to immunisation failures with meningococcal vaccines which was reported to relevant organisations including NSW Health, the RACGP and the manufacturer involved, which was addressed with educational materials for GPs being distributed and communication in Australian Family Physician. x There are further analyses that could be undertaken using the TAPS data to improve our understanding of the errors reported, such as further statistical analyses using techniques such as building a model with multiple regression to determine significant factors that contribute to different error types. This work was beyond the scope of the TAPS study aims, but is part of further research recommendations. In addition, future studies should address aspects of patient safety and reported error that it would not be possible to capture from the perspective of the reporting GP. Rather than one taxonomy which describes the reported errors from the GP’s perspective in the way that the TAPS taxonomy does, it may be useful to develop a series of interlinked taxonomies that are directed to the needs of differing constituencies, such as the organisation providing health funds or the health insurer, the health regulators and legislators, and the patients or their significant others. The assessment of potential and actual harms sustained by patients involved in reported errors is a further area of patient safety research that is difficult to comprehensively assess, and existing reporting systems in the literature, whilst addressing this from the reporter’s perspective, require further work to improve the accuracy by which harm is measured and correlated with other data sets such as those managed by health insurers, and the experiences of people who are the subject of the reports. The TAPS study presents a number of new findings about the nature of error and threats to patient safety that arise in the Australian health care environment, reported by a representative sample of general practitioners, and it is hoped that these will be xi useful to all stakeholders in the health care setting, from clinicians, through to policy makers, and most importantly the patients who are the subject of the potentially preventable harms and near misses that are highlighted in this thesis

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2000. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 343-355).

Thesis (M.A.)--Rowan University, 2009. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references.