<p>Bakgrund: En ökad internationalisering och fler dotterföretag i länder med hög inflation har inneburit att svenska företag utsätts för olika risker såsom valutarisker och köpkraftsdifferenser. En redovisad vinst i utlandet betyder inte alltid en vinst i moderbolagets valuta. I slutet av 80-talet var val av metod mer eller mindre godtyckligt och det finns olika åsikter om hur omräkningen ska gå till. Att företagen använder olika metoder försvårar jämförbarheten. I och med ett EU-beslut kommer Sverige och övriga EU-länder från 2005 tillämpa IASBs internationella redovisningsrekommendationer, vilket innebär vissa förändringar som svenska koncerner måste ta ställning till. </p><p>Syfte: Syftet med studien är att klargöra vilka metoder som används för omräkning av dotterföretag i länder med hög inflation, vilka konsekvenser valet av metod ger samt tänkbara orsaker till varför en metod väljs framför en annan. Undersökningen ska också utreda skillnader mellan lagar och rekommendationer som gäller idag och IASBs rekommendationer som ska gälla från 2005. </p><p>Avgränsningar: Undersökningen omfattar svenska koncerner som 2003-12-31 var noterade på A- och Attract 40-listan och deras årsredovisningar som publicerats mellan 1 april, 2003 och 31 mars, 2004. Undersökningen är avgränsad från alla rekommendationer utom RR 8 IAS 21 och 29 samt FAS 52. De koncerner som inte uppgivit i sin årsredovisning att de har dotterbolag i länder med hög inflation behandlas inte i undersökningen. </p><p>Genomförande: En studie av de företags årsredovisningar som angett att de har dotterföretag i länder med hög inflation har gjorts. För att komplettera denna studie har en enkätundersökning genomförts av dessa koncerner. Olika simuleringar på ett fiktivt dotterföretag har också gjorts för att illustrera skillnader och konsekvenser av olika val av omräkningsmetod. </p><p>Slutsatser/Resultat: Koncerner använder tre olika metoder vid valutaomräkning på dotterbolag i länder med hög inflation; dagskursmetoden på köpkraftkorrigerade räkenskaper, den monetära metoden samt tvåstegsmetoden. Faktorer som påverkar val av omräkningsmetod kan delas in i interna och externa faktorer. Till de externa faktorerna hör de svenska rekommendationerna och den internationella kontext som dotterbolaget verkar i. Några faktorer har både en extern och en intern påverkan och dessa är internationella rekommendationer och påverkan på resultat och ställning. De interna faktorerna är praktiska synpunkterna och dotterbolagets funktionella valuta. De rekommendationer som tillämpas i Sverige är redan anpassade efter IASBs redovisningsrekommendationer och den största förändringen är att endast en metod blir tillåten, dagskursmetoden på köpkraftsjusterade räkenskaper.</p>

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2002. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 85-93).

Multivariate ordinal response data, such as severity of pain, degree of disability, and satisfaction with a healthcare provider, are prevalent in many areas of research including public health, biomedical, and social science research. Ignoring the multivariate features of the response variables, that is, by not taking the correlation between the errors across models into account, may lead to substantially biased estimates and inference. In addition, such multivariate ordinal outcomes frequently exhibit a high percentage of zeros (zero inflation) at the lower end of the ordinal scales, as compared to what is expected under a multivariate ordinal distribution. Thus, zero inflation coupled with the multivariate structure make it difficult to analyze such data and properly interpret the results. Methods that have been developed to address the zero-inflated data are limited to univariate-logit or univariate-probit model, and extension to bivariate (or multivariate) probit models has been very limited to date. In this research, a latent variable approach was used to develop a Mixture Bivariate Zero-Inflated Ordered Probit (MBZIOP) model. A Bayesian MCMC technique was used for parameter estimation. A simulation study was then conducted to compare the performances of the estimators of the proposed model with two existing models. The simulation study suggested that for data with at least a moderate proportion of zeros in bivariate responses, the proposed model performed better than the comparison models both in terms of lower bias and greater accuracy (RMSE). Finally, the proposed method was illustrated with a publicly-available drug-abuse dataset to identify highly probable predictors of: (i) being a user/nonuser of marijuana, cocaine, or both; and (ii), conditional on user status, the level of consumption of these drugs. The results from the analysis suggested that older individuals, smokers, and people with a prior criminal background have a higher risk of being a marijuana only user, or being the user of both drugs. However, cocaine only users were predicted on the basis of being younger and having been engaged in the criminal-justice system. Given that an individual is a user of marijuana only, or user of both drugs, age appears to have an inverse effect on the latent level of consumption of marijuana as well as cocaine. Similarly, given that a respondent is a user of cocaine only, all covariates--age, involvement in criminal activities, and being of black race--are strong predictors of the level of cocaine consumption. The finding of older age being associated with higher drug consumption may represent a survival bias whereby previous younger users with high consumption may have been at elevated risk of premature mortality. Finally, the analysis indicated that blacks are likely to use less marijuana, but have a higher latent level of cocaine given that they are user of both drugs.

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The thesis examines the impact of a partial switch to a share system in Canada on unemployment and inflation. Simulations with an independent Canadian macro model and Canadian data for the period 1973-1983 show that profit sharing will not always resolve unemployment and inflation, as claimed by Martin Weitzman. Some combinations of the share parameters resolve them, while others aggravate them. Thus, the combinations of the share parameters play a key role in terms of impact of the profit sharing on unemployment and inflation.

Face au déclin global de la biodiversité, de nombreux suivis de populations animales et végétales sont réalisés sur de grandes zones géographiques et durant une longue période afin de comprendre les facteurs déterminant la distribution, l'abondance et les tendances des populations. Ces suivis à larges échelles permettent de statuer quantitativement sur l'état des populations et de mettre en place des plans de gestion appropriés en accord avec les échelles biologiques. L'analyse statistique de ce type de données n'est cependant pas sans poser un certain nombre de problèmes. Classiquement, on utilise des modèles linéaires généralisés (GLM), formalisant les liens entre des variables supposées influentes (par exemple caractérisant l'environnement) et la variable d'intérêt (souvent la présence / absence de l'espèce ou des comptages). Il se pose alors un problème majeur qui concerne la manière de sélectionner ces variables influentes dans un contexte de données spatialisées. Cette thèse explore différentes solutions et propose une méthode facilement applicable, basée sur une validation croisée tenant compte des dépendances spatiales. La performance de la méthode est évaluée par des simulations et différents cas d'études dont des données de comptages présentant une variabilité plus forte qu'attendue (surdispersion). Un intérêt particulier est aussi porté aux méthodes de modélisation pour les données ayant un nombre de zéros plus important qu'attendu (inflation en zéro). La dernière partie de la thèse utilise ces enseignements méthodologiques pour modéliser la distribution, l'abondance et les tendances des rapaces diurnes en France.

There are two key observations in international macroeconomics which pertain to output and real exchange rate dynamics. First, fluctuations in national output around its long-run growth path are very persistent. Second, fluctuations in real exchange rates are very persistent. The sticky price framework offers an explanation for both phenomena. The first and second essay of this thesis take an empirical approach to test the predictions of this framework. In the first essay I test the prediction of the sticky price model for output dynamics using annual IFS data on 51 countries over the period 1950 -1996. The model predicts that price stickiness should be less important in high inflation countries and therefore output fluctuations less persistent. I find that, this inverse relationship is statistically insignificant in the international data. A similar result holds for OECD countries. In the empirical implementation I explicitly control for the within-country time variation in inflation by first characterizing the inflationary environment using the long-run movements in inflation (trend inflation), and secondly, by excluding episodes of hyperinflation. The analysis shows that when the within-country time variation in inflation is ignored, there is support for the prediction. For instance, the inverse relationship between persistence in deviations of output from its long-run growth path and average inflation is statistically significant in the full sample. However, the exclusion of a few episodes of hyperinflation renders this relationship statistically insignificant. In the second essay I investigate the prediction of the sticky price model for real exchange rate dynamics using annual IFS data on 49 countries over the period 1972-1996. The model predicts that deviations of real exchange rates from purchasing power parity should be less persistent, in high inflation countries. The empirical analysis reveals that the support for such an inverse relationship is extremely fragile. In particular, eliminating episodes of hyperinflation renders this relationship statistically insignificant. The lack of evidence in favour of the two predictions of the sticky price model is problematic since this model is extensively used as a microfoundation for understanding output and real exchange rate fluctuations. In the third essay I take a structural approach to qualitatively explore the role of slow diffusion of new products in propagating the effect of technology shocks on output. I present a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model in which the creation of new products requires real resources. These products are beneficial for the economy but only upon complete diffusion. However, this diffusion is not instantaneous. I find that relative to a model in which there is instantaneous diffusion of new products, the qualitative output dynamics are similar to what is observed in the U.S. data. This warrants further quantitative investigation.

Nepriklausomybės atgavimas ir pasitraukimas iš planinės ekonomikos, sąlygojo ir permainų būtinumą. Lietuvoje buvo pradėtos svarbios ūkinės reformos, kuriomis buvo siekiama sukurti laisvos rinkos ūkį, gamintojų konkurenciją, skatinti paklausą turinčios produkcijos gamybą, užmegzti tiesioginius ekonominius ryšius su užsienio šalimis, pakelti žmonių gyvenimo lygį. Visa tai atsispindėjo šalies pagrindinių makroekonominių rodiklių raidoje, kurios nagrinėjimui ir skirtas šis magistro baigiamasis darbas. Baigiamąjį darbą sudaro 3 dalys. Pirmoji dalis skirta pagrindinių makroekonominių rodiklių teoriniam vertinimui. Ją sudaro 4 skyriai: Bendrasis vidaus produktas; Investicijos; Nedarbas; Infliacija. / The theme of the Master’s Thesis is Changes in the Main Macroeconomic Indices of Lithuania after the Restoration of Independence. The Thesis is composed of 67 pages, 4 tables and 15 images. Restoration of independence and abandoning of the central planning economy determined the necessity for changes. Important economic reforms were launched in Lithuania with the aim of establishing a free-market economy, competitiveness of producers, enhancing the manufacture of marketable products, contracting direct economic ties with foreign countries, boosting the standard of living. All these factors reflected in the macroeconomic indices and their changes, which are the subject matter of this Master’s Thesis.

Šiame darbe analizuojamos Neoklasikų bei Neokeinsistų teorinės įžvalgos, per šių teorijų prizmę siekiama įvertinti infliacijos kontrolės priemones, taikytas Lietuvoje 1991-2007 metais. Šiam tikslui pasiekti atlikta Neoklasikų bei Neokeinsistų teorijų analizė, išskirtos bei palygintos šių mokyklų atstovų rekomenduojamos infliacijos priemonės. Taip pat atlikta 1991-2007 metų Lietuvos infliacijos pokyčių bei juos lėmusių veiksnių analizė, peržvelgta šio laikotarpio monetarinė bei fiskalinė politikos. Išskyrus analizuotų Neoklasikų bei Neokeinsistų teorijų autorių siūlomus infliacijos kontrolės metodus, įvertintos Lietuvos infliacijos kontrolės priemonės. Padaryta išvada, kad Lietuvos infliacijos kontrolės modelis turi bruožų, būdingų tiek Neoklasikų, tiek Neokeinsistų teorijoms. / In this work Neoclassical and Neokeynesian academic providence are analyzed with an aim to estimate Lithuanian inflation control devices, applied from 1991 to 2007. In order to reach this goal Neoclassical and Neokeynesian theories are analyzed. Inflation control tools, counseled by representatives of these schools of thoughts, are excluded and compared. Lithuanian inflation variations and their causes are analyzed, monetary and fiscal policies are delineated. By using segregated ideas of analyzed Neoclassical and Neokeynesian authors, Lithuanian inflation control methods are assessed. The conclusion is that Lithuanian inflation control model carries features, which are common both for Neoclassical and Neokeynesian schools of thoughts.