With the election of President Trump, climate deniers feel emboldened and moved from the fringes to the centre of global policy making. We study how an agnostic approach to policy, based on Pascal's wager and allowing for subjective prior probability beliefs about whether climate deniers are right, prices carbon. Using the DICE integrated assessment model, we find that assigning a 10% chance of climate deniers being correct lowers the global price on carbon in 2020 only marginally: from $21 to $19 per ton of carbon dioxide if policymakers apply "Nordhaus discounting" and from $91 to $84 per ton of carbon dioxide if they apply "Stern discounting". Agnostics' reflection of remaining scientific uncertainty leaves climate policy essentially unchanged. The robustness of an ambitious climate policy also follows from using the max-min or the min-max regret principle. Letting the coefficient of relative ambiguity aversion vary from zero, corresponding to expected utility analysis, to infinity, corresponding to the max-min principle, we show how policy makers deal with fundamental climate model uncertainty if they are prepared to assign prior probabilities to different views of the world being correct. Allowing for an ethical discount rate and a higher market discount rate and for a wide range of sensitivity exercises including damage uncertainty, we show that pricing carbon is the robust response under rising climate scepticism. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

O trabalho avalia a importância dos atributos que afetam a dinâmica da água subsuperficial, em 4 níveis de escala, para a região entre São Carlos e Ribeirão Preto, nordeste do Estado de São Paulo. A área é constituída, principalmente, por arenitos da formação Botucatu e basaltos da formação Serra Geral, recobertos por materiais inconsolidados, com espessura variando de 1 a 20 m. O estudo na escala 1:100.000 considerou 27 atributos, incluindo características dos materiais geológicos, geomorfologia, precipitações e fontes de contaminação. A técnica AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) foi utilizada para determinar o potencial relativo em termos de contaminação das águas subsuperficiais. Os resultados indicaram que o risco atual de contaminação das águas subsuperficiais é relativamente baixo, devendo ser analisado com maior detalhe para algumas bacias consideradas de risco mais acentuado. Foram realizados levantamentos em escala 1:10.000 e 1:20.000 para as bacias hidrográficas do córrego do Vaçununga (cidade de Luis Antônio) e Ribeirão do Tamanduá (próximo às cidades de Cravinhos e Serrana), respectivamente. Estas bacias foram selecionadas a partir do estudo em escala 1:100.000 devido as suas características ambientais. Foram selecionados 12 cenários de chuvas para avaliar a relação entre infiltração e escoamento superficial utilizando os modelos de infiltração de Morel - Seytoux & Khanji (1976) e Chu (1978). Os valores de descarga nos exutório e análise de recessão nestas bacias foram medidos por 2 anos. A bacia hidrográfica do córrego do esgoto (próximo a Ribeirão Preto) foi selecionada para a modelagem numérica (escala 1:1.000) por apresentar o maior índice potencial ao evento de contaminação das águas subsuperficiais na escala 1:100.000. A modelagem auxiliou na definição da direção do fluxo e indicou tendências de migração dos contaminantes oriundos do lixão instalado nesta bacia (modelagem de fluxo e de transporte). / This work presents the results obtained from integrated assessment of the attributes related to groundwater dynamic in 4 scales in the São Carlos and Ribeirão Preto region, northeast of State of São Paulo, Brazil. This area is constituted of sandstones of the Botucatu formation and basalt of the Serra Geral formation. Unconsolidated materials cover these rocks with thickness varying from 1 to 20 m. For 1:100.000 scale were considered 27 attributes of the geological materials, geomorphology, rainfall and pollutant sources. The AHP method (Analytic Hierarchy Process) was used to determine the relative degree in terms of groundwater contamination potential. The results show that the risk level for groundwater contamination is predominately low, and few basins are classified with high risk level. Studies were developed in 1:20.000 and 1:10.000 scales for córrego do Vaçununga (city of Luis Antônio) and ribeirão do Tamanduá (near to cities of Cravinhos e Serrana) basins, respectively. These basins were selected from the study in 1:100.000 scale due to environmental characteristics. It were considered 12 rainfall scenarios to evaluate the infiltration and overland flow rates using the Morel - Seytoux & Khanji (1976) and Chu (1978) model\'s, and recession and discharge rates were measured for 2 years. The córrego do esgoto basin (next to city of Ribeirão Preto) was selected for numerical modelling at 1:1.000 scale to simulate the groundwater flow and contaminantplumes, because it presented highest risk level in the 1:100.000 study.

Diese Dissertation beschreibt die Entwicklung und Anwendung des Klimawirkungsmoduls des ICLIPS-Modells, eines integrierten Modells des Klimawandels ('Integrated Assessment'-Modell). Vorangestellt ist eine Diskussion des gesellschaftspolitischen Kontexts, in dem modellbasiertes 'Integrated Assessment' stattfindet, aus der wichtige Anforderungen an die Spezifikation des Klimawirkungsmoduls abgeleitet werden. <br /> <br /> Das 'Integrated Assessment' des Klimawandels umfasst eine weiten Bereich von Aktivitäten zur wissenschaftsbasierten Unterstützung klimapolitischer Entscheidungen. Hierbei wird eine Vielzahl von Ansätzen verfolgt, um politikrelevante Informationen über die erwarteten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels zu berücksichtigen. Wichtige Herausforderungen in diesem Bereich sind die große Bandbreite der relevanten räumlichen und zeitlichen Skalen, die multifaktorielle Verursachung vieler 'Klimafolgen', erhebliche wissenschaftliche Unsicherheiten sowie die Mehrdeutigkeit unvermeidlicher Werturteile. Die Entwicklung eines hierarchischen Konzeptmodells erlaubt die Strukturierung der verschiedenen Ansätze sowie die Darstellung eines mehrstufigen Entwicklungsprozesses, der sich in der Praxis und der zu Grunde liegenden Theorie von Studien zur Vulnerabilität hinsichtlich des Klimawandels wiederspiegelt. <br /> <br /> 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle des Klimawandels sind wissenschaftliche Werkzeuge, welche eine vereinfachte Beschreibung des gekoppelten Mensch-Klima-Systems enthalten. Die wichtigsten entscheidungstheoretischen Ansätze im Bereich des modellbasierten 'Integrated Assessment' werden im Hinblick auf ihre Fähigkeit zur adäquaten Darstellung klimapolitischer Entscheidungsprobleme bewertet. Dabei stellt der 'Leitplankenansatz' eine 'inverse' Herangehensweise zur Unterstützung klimapolitischer Entscheidungen dar, bei der versucht wird, die Gesamtheit der klimapolitischen Strategien zu bestimmen, die mit einer Reihe von zuvor normativ bestimmten Mindestkriterien (den sogenannten 'Leitplanken') verträglich sind. Dieser Ansatz verbindet bis zu einem gewissen Grad die wissenschaftliche Strenge und Objektivität simulationsbasierter Ansätze mit der Fähigkeit von Optimierungsansätzen, die Gesamtheit aller Entscheidungsoptionen zu berücksichtigen. Das ICLIPS-Modell ist das erste 'Integrated Assessment'-Modell des Klimawandels, welches den Leitplankenansatz implementiert. <br /> <br /> Die Darstellung von Klimafolgen ist eine wichtige Herausforderung für 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle des Klimawandels. Eine Betrachtung bestehender 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle offenbart große Unterschiede in der Berücksichtigung verschiedener vom Klimawandel betroffenen Sektoren, in der Wahl des bzw. der Indikatoren zur Darstellung von Klimafolgen, in der Berücksichtigung nicht-klimatischer Entwicklungen einschließlich gezielter Anpassungsmaßnahmen an den Klimawandel, in der Behandlung von Unsicherheiten und in der Berücksichtigung von 'singulären' Ereignissen. 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle, die auf einem Inversansatz beruhen, stellen besondere Anforderungen an die Darstellung von Klimafolgen. Einerseits muss der Detaillierungsgrad hinreichend sein, um Leitplanken für Klimafolgen sinnvoll definieren zu können; andererseits muss die Darstellung effizient genug sein, um die Gesamtheit der möglichen klimapolitischen Strategien erkunden zu können. Großräumige Singularitäten können häufig durch vereinfachte dynamische Modelle abgebildet werden. Diese Methode ist jedoch weniger geeignet für reguläre Klimafolgen, bei denen die Bestimmung relevanter Ergebnisse in der Regel die Berücksichtigung der Heterogenität von klimatischen, naturräumlichen und sozialen Faktoren auf der lokalen oder regionalen Ebene erfordert. <br /> <br /> Klimawirkungsfunktionen stellen sich als die geeignetste Darstellung regulärer Klimafolgen im ICLIPS-Modell heraus. Eine Klimawirkungsfunktion beschreibt in aggregierter Form die Reaktion eines klimasensitiven Systems, wie sie von einem geographisch expliziten Klimawirkungsmodell für eine repräsentative Teilmenge möglicher zukünftiger Entwicklungen simuliert wurde. Die in dieser Arbeit vorgestellten Klimawirkungsfunktionen nutzen die globale Mitteltemperatur sowie die atmosphärische CO2-Konzentration als Prädiktoren für global und regional aggregierte Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf natürliche Ökosysteme, die landwirtschaftliche Produktion und die Wasserverfügbarkeit. Die Anwendung einer 'Musterskalierungstechnik' ermöglicht hierbei die Berücksichtigung der regionalen und saisonalen Muster des Klimaänderungssignals aus allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodellen, ohne die Effizienz der dynamischen Modellkomponenten zu beeinträchtigen. <br /> <br /> Bemühungen zur quantitativen Abschätzung zukünftiger Klimafolgen sehen sich bei der Wahl geeigneter Indikatoren in der Regel einem Zielkonflikt zwischen der Relevanz eines Indikators für Entscheidungsträger und der Zuverlässigkeit, mit der dieser bestimmt werden kann, gegenüber. Eine Reihe von nichtmonetären Indikatoren zur aggregierten Darstellung von Klimafolgen in Klimawirkungsfunktionen wird präsentiert, welche eine Balance zwischen diesen beiden Zielen anstreben und gleichzeitig die Beschränkungen berücksichtigen, die sich aus anderen Komponenten des ICLIPS-Modells ergeben. Klimawirkungsfunktionen werden durch verschiedene Typen von Diagrammen visualisiert, welche jeweils unterschiedliche Perspektiven auf die Ergebnismenge der Klimawirkungssimulationen erlauben.<br /> <br /> Die schiere Anzahl von Klimawirkungsfunktionen verhindert ihre umfassende Darstellung in dieser Arbeit. Ausgewählte Ergebnisse zu Veränderungen in der räumlichen Ausdehnung von Biomen, im landwirtschaftlichen Potential verschiedener Länder und in der Wasserverfügbarkeit in mehreren großen Einzugsgebieten werden diskutiert. Die Gesamtheit der Klimawirkungsfunktionen wird zugänglich gemacht durch das 'ICLIPS Impacts Tool', eine graphische Benutzeroberfläche, die einen bequemen Zugriff auf über 100.000 Klimawirkungsdiagramme ermöglicht. Die technischen Aspekte der Software sowie die zugehörige Datenbasis wird beschrieben. <br /> <br /> Die wichtigste Anwendung von Klimawirkungsfunktionen ist im 'Inversmodus', wo sie genutzt werden, um Leitplanken zur Begrenzung von Klimafolgen in gleichzeitige Randbedingungen für Variablen aus dem optimierenden ICLIPS-Klima-Weltwirtschafts-Modell zu übersetzen. Diese Übersetzung wird ermöglicht durch Algorithmen zur Bestimmung von Mengen erreichbarer Klimazustände ('reachable climate domains') sowie zur parametrisierten Approximation zulässiger Klimafenster ('admissible climate windows'), die aus Klimawirkungsfunktionen abgeleitet werden. Der umfassende Bestand an Klimawirkungsfunktionen zusammen mit diesen Algorithmen ermöglicht es dem integrierten ICLIPS-Modell, in flexibler Weise diejenigen klimapolitischen Strategien zu bestimmen, welche bestimmte in biophysikalischen Einheiten ausgedrückte Begrenzungen von Klimafolgen explizit berücksichtigen. Diese Möglichkeit bietet kein anderes intertemporal optimierendes 'Integrated Assessment'-Modell. Eine Leitplankenanalyse mit dem integrierten ICLIPS-Modell unter Anwendung ausgewählter Klimawirkungsfunktionen für Veränderungen natürlicher Ökosysteme wird beschrieben. In dieser Analyse werden so genannte 'notwendige Emissionskorridore' berechnet, die vorgegebene Beschränkungen hinsichtlich der maximal zulässigen globalen Vegetationsveränderungen und der regionalen Klimaschutzkosten berücksichtigen. Dies geschieht sowohl für eine 'Standardkombination' der drei gewählten Kriterien als auch für deren systematische Variation. <br /> <br /> Eine abschließende Diskussion aktueller Entwicklungen in der 'Integrated Assessment'-Modellierung stellt diese Arbeit mit anderen einschlägigen Bemühungen in Beziehung. / This thesis describes the development and application of the impacts module of the ICLIPS model, a global integrated assessment model of climate change. The presentation of the technical aspects of this model component is preceded by a discussion of the sociopolitical context for model-based integrated assessments, which defines important requirements for the specification of the model.<br /> <br /> Integrated assessment of climate change comprises a broad range of scientific efforts to support the decision-making about objectives and measures for climate policy, whereby many different approaches have been followed to provide policy-relevant information about climate impacts. Major challenges in this context are the large diversity of the relevant spatial and temporal scales, the multifactorial causation of many climate impacts', considerable scientific uncertainties, and the ambiguity associated with unavoidable normative evaluations. A hierarchical framework is presented for structuring climate impact assessments that reflects the evolution of their practice and of the underlying theory.<br /> <br /> Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are scientific tools that contain simplified representations of the relevant components of the coupled society-climate system. The major decision-analytical frameworks for IAMs are evaluated according to their ability to address important aspects of the pertinent social decision problem. The guardrail approach is presented as an inverse' framework for climate change decision support, which aims to identify the whole set of policy strategies that are compatible with a set of normatively specified constraints (guardrails'). This approach combines, to a certain degree, the scientific rigour and objectivity typical of predictive approaches with the ability to consider virtually all decision options that is at the core of optimization approaches. The ICLIPS model is described as the first IAM that implements the guardrail approach.<br /> <br /> The representation of climate impacts is a key concern in any IAM. A review of existing IAMs reveals large differences in the coverage of impact sectors, in the choice of the impact numeraire(s), in the consideration of non-climatic developments, including purposeful adaptation, in the handling of uncertainty, and in the inclusion of singular events. IAMs based on an inverse approach impose specific requirements to the representation of climate impacts. This representation needs to combine a level of detail and reliability that is sufficient for the specification of impact guardrails with the conciseness and efficiency that allows for an exploration of the complete domain of plausible climate protection strategies. Large-scale singular events can often be represented by dynamic reduced-form models. This approach, however, is less appropriate for regular impacts where the determination of policy-relevant results generally needs to consider the heterogeneity of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors at the local or regional scale.<br /> <br /> Climate impact response functions (CIRFs) are identified as the most suitable reduced-form representation of regular climate impacts in the ICLIPS model. A CIRF depicts the aggregated response of a climate-sensitive system or sector as simulated by a spatially explicit sectoral impact model for a representative subset of plausible futures. In the CIRFs presented here, global mean temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are used as predictors for global and regional impacts on natural vegetation, agricultural crop production, and water availability. Application of a pattern scaling technique makes it possible to consider the regional and seasonal patterns in the climate anomalies simulated by several general circulation models while ensuring the efficiency of the dynamic model components.<br /> <br /> Efforts to provide quantitative estimates of future climate impacts generally face a trade-off between the relevance of an indicator for stakeholders and the exactness with which it can be determined. A number of non-monetary aggregated impact indicators for the CIRFs is presented, which aim to strike the balance between these two conflicting goals while taking into account additional constraints of the ICLIPS modelling framework. Various types of impact diagrams are used for the visualization of CIRFs, each of which provides a different perspective on the impact result space.<br /> <br /> The sheer number of CIRFs computed for the ICLIPS model precludes their comprehensive presentation in this thesis. Selected results referring to changes in the distribution of biomes in different biogeographical regions, in the agricultural potential of various countries, and in the water availability in selected major catchments are discussed. The full set of CIRFs is accessible via the ICLIPS Impacts Tool, a graphical user interface that provides convenient access to more than 100,000 impact diagrams developed for the ICLIPS model. The technical aspects of the software are described as well as the accompanying database of CIRFs.<br /> <br /> The most important application of CIRFs is in inverse' mode, where they are used to translate impact guardrails into simultaneous constraints for variables from the optimizing ICLIPS climate-economy model. This translation is facilitated by algorithms for the computation of reachable climate domains and for the parameterized approximation of admissible climate windows derived from CIRFs. The comprehensive set of CIRFs, together with these algorithms, enables the ICLIPS model to flexibly explore sets of climate policy strategies that explicitly comply with impact guardrails specified in biophysical units. This feature is not found in any other intertemporally optimizing IAM. A guardrail analysis with the integrated ICLIPS model is described that applies selected CIRFs for ecosystem changes. So-called necessary carbon emission corridors' are determined for a default choice of normative constraints that limit global vegetation impacts as well as regional mitigation costs, and for systematic variations of these constraints.<br /> <br /> A brief discussion of recent developments in integrated assessment modelling of climate change connects the work presented here with related efforts.

<p> We present an application of imprecise probability theory to the quantification of uncertainty in the integrated assessment of climate change. Our work is motivated by the fact that uncertainty about climate change is pervasive, and therefore requires a thorough treatment in the integrated assessment process. Classical probability theory faces some severe difficulties in this respect, since it cannot capture very poor states of information in a satisfactory manner. A more general framework is provided by imprecise probability theory, which offers a similarly firm evidential and behavioural foundation, while at the same time allowing to capture more diverse states of information. An imprecise probability describes the information in terms of lower and upper bounds on probability.</p> <p> For the purpose of our imprecise probability analysis, we construct a diffusion ocean energy balance climate model that parameterises the global mean temperature response to secular trends in the radiative forcing in terms of climate sensitivity and effective vertical ocean heat diffusivity. We compare the model behaviour to the 20th century temperature record in order to derive a likelihood function for these two parameters and the forcing strength of anthropogenic sulphate aerosols. Results show a strong positive correlation between climate sensitivity and ocean heat diffusivity, and between climate sensitivity and absolute strength of the sulphate forcing.</p> <p> We identify two suitable imprecise probability classes for an efficient representation of the uncertainty about the climate model parameters and provide an algorithm to construct a belief function for the prior parameter uncertainty from a set of probability constraints that can be deduced from the literature or observational data. For the purpose of updating the prior with the likelihood function, we establish a methodological framework that allows us to perform the updating procedure efficiently for two different updating rules: Dempster's rule of conditioning and the Generalised Bayes' rule. Dempster's rule yields a posterior belief function in good qualitative agreement with previous studies that tried to constrain climate sensitivity and sulphate aerosol cooling. In contrast, we are not able to produce meaningful imprecise posterior probability bounds from the application of the Generalised Bayes' Rule. We can attribute this result mainly to our choice of representing the prior uncertainty by a belief function.</p> <p> We project the Dempster-updated belief function for the climate model parameters onto estimates of future global mean temperature change under several emissions scenarios for the 21st century, and several long-term stabilisation policies. Within the limitations of our analysis we find that it requires a stringent stabilisation level of around 450 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent concentration to obtain a non-negligible lower probability of limiting the warming to 2 degrees Celsius. We discuss several frameworks of decision-making under ambiguity and show that they can lead to a variety of, possibly imprecise, climate policy recommendations. We find, however, that poor states of information do not necessarily impede a useful policy advice.</p> <p> We conclude that imprecise probabilities constitute indeed a promising candidate for the adequate treatment of uncertainty in the integrated assessment of climate change. We have constructed prior belief functions that allow much weaker assumptions on the prior state of information than a prior probability would require and, nevertheless, can be propagated through the entire assessment process. As a caveat, the updating issue needs further investigation. Belief functions constitute only a sensible choice for the prior uncertainty representation if more restrictive updating rules than the Generalised Bayes'Rule are available.</p> / <p> Diese Arbeit untersucht die Eignung der Theorie der unscharfen Wahrscheinlichkeiten für die Beschreibung der Unsicherheit in der integrierten Analyse des Klimawandels. Die wissenschaftliche Unsicherheit bezüglich vieler Aspekte des Klimawandels ist beträchtlich, so dass ihre angemessene Beschreibung von großer Wichtigkeit ist. Die klassische Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie weist in diesem Zusammenhang einige Probleme auf, da sie Zustände sehr geringer Information nicht zufriedenstellend beschreiben kann. Die unscharfe Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie bietet ein gleichermaßen fundiertes Theoriegebäude, welches jedoch eine größere Flexibilität bei der Beschreibung verschiedenartiger Informationszustände erlaubt. Unscharfe Wahrscheinlichkeiten erfassen solche Informationszustände durch die Spezifizierung von unteren und oberen Grenzen an zulässige Werte der Wahrscheinlichkeit.</p> <p> Unsere Analyse des Klimawandels beruht auf einem Energiebilanzmodell mit diffusivem Ozean, welches die globale Temperaturantwort auf eine Änderung der Strahlungsbilanz in Abhängigkeit von zwei Parametern beschreibt: die Klimasensitivität, und die effektive vertikale Wärmediffusivität im Ozean. Wir vergleichen das Modellverhalten mit den Temperaturmessungen des 20. Jahrhunderts, um eine sogenannte Likelihood-Funktion für die Hypothesen zu diesen beiden Parametern sowie dem kühlenden Einfluss der Sulfataerosole zu ermitteln. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich eine stark positive Korrelation zwischen Klimasensitivität und Wärmediffusivität im Ozean, und Klimasensitivität und kühlendem Einfluss der Sulfataerosole.</p> <p> Für die effiziente Beschreibung der Parameterunsicherheit ziehen wir zwei geeignete Modelltypen aus der unscharfen Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie heran. Wir formulieren einen Algorithmus, der den Informationsgehalt beider Modelle durch eine sogenannte Belief-Funktion beschreibt. Mit Hilfe dieses Algorithmus konstruieren wir Belief-Funktionen für die A-priori-Parameterunsicherheit auf der Grundlage von divergierenden Wahrscheinlichkeitsschätzungen in der Literatur bzw. Beobachtungsdaten. Wir leiten eine Methode her, um die A-priori-Belief-Funktion im Lichte der Likelihood-Funktion zu aktualisieren. Dabei ziehen wir zwei verschiedene Regeln zur Durchführung des Lernprozesses in Betracht: die Dempstersche Regel und die verallgemeinerte Bayessche Regel. Durch Anwendung der Dempsterschen Regel erhalten wir eineA-posteriori-Belief-Funktion, deren Informationsgehalt qualitativ mit den Ergebnissen bisheriger Studien übereinstimmt, die eine Einschränkung der Unsicherheit über die Klimasensitivität und die kühlende Wirkung der Sulfataerosole versucht haben. Im Gegensatz dazu finden wir bei Anwendung der verallgemeinerten Bayesschen Regel keine sinnvollen unteren und oberen Grenzen an die A-posteriori-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Wir stellen fest, dass dieses Resultat maßgeblich durch die Wahl einer Belief-Funktion zur Beschreibung der A-priori-Unsicherheit bedingt ist.</p> <p> Die A-posteriori-Belief-Funktion für die Modellparameter, die wir aus der Anwendung der Dempsterschen Regel erhalten haben, wird zur Abschätzung des zukünftigen Temperaturanstiegs eingesetzt. Wir betrachten verschiedene Emissionsszenarien für das 21. Jahrhundert sowie verschiedene Stabilisierungsziele für den Treibhausgasgehalt in der Atmosphäre. Im Rahmen unserer Analyse finden wir, dass sehr strikte Stabilisierungsziele im Bereich einer Kohlendioxid-Äquivalentkonzentration von ca. 450 ppm in der Atmosphäre notwendig sind, um nicht eine vernachlässigbar kleine untere Wahrscheinlichkeit für die Begrenzung der Erwärmung auf 2 Grad Celsius zu erhalten. Wir diskutieren verschiedene Kriterien für die Entscheidungsfindung unter unscharfer Wahrscheinlichkeit, und zeigen dass sie zu verschiedenen teilweise unscharfen Politikempfehlungen führen können. Nichtsdestotrotz stellen wir fest, dass eine klare Politikempfehlung auch bei Zuständen schwacher Information möglich sein kann.</p> <p> Wir schließen, dass unscharfe Wahrscheinlichkeiten tatsächlich ein geeignetes Mittel zur Beschreibung der Unsicherheit in der integrierten Analyse des Klimawandels darstellen. Wir haben Algorithmen zur Generierung und Weiterverarbeitung von Belief-Funktionen etabliert, die eine deutlich größere A-priori-Unsicherheit beschreiben können, als durch eine A-priori-Wahrscheinlichkeit möglich wäre. Allerdings erfordert die Frage des Lernprozesses für unscharfe Wahrscheinlichkeiten eine weitergehende Untersuchung. Belief-Funktionen stellen nur dann eine vernünftige Wahl für die Beschreibung der A-priori-Unsicherheit dar, wenn striktere Regeln als die verallgemeinerte Bayessche Regel für den Lernprozess gerechtfertigt werden können.</p>

The loss of ecosystem resilience and rangeland (often referred to as veld in South Africa) productivity is a major problem in the semi-arid Savanna environments of southern Africa. The over-utilization of rangelands in the Molopo region of the North- West Province in South Africa has resulted in profound habitat transformations. A common regional indicator of rangeland degradation is the imbalance in the grasswoody ratio, characterized by a loss of grass cover and density with increased shrub or tree density. This can result in major reductions of rangeland productivity for the grazing animal, forcing land users to apply active or passive restoration actions to improve rangeland condition, control the thickening of woody species (bush thickening), mitigate economic losses and restoring the aesthetical value of the Savanna environment for ecotourism and game hunting aspects. This study formed part of the multinational EU-funded PRACTICE project (“Prevention and restoration actions to combat desertification: an integrated assessment”). The first aim of the study was to evaluate locally applied restoration actions using a participatory approach, followed by interviews with certain stakeholders that formed part of a multi-stakeholder platform (MSP) related to the livestock and game farming community in the Molopo. Participants of the MSP ranked indicators according to their relative importance regarding the restoration actions on an individual basis. The individual ranking results were combined with quantitative bio-physical and qualitative socio-economic measurements for each indicator in a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), whereby the alternative actions were ranked according to their relevancy and performance. The results were then shared with members of the MSP in order to stimulate discussion among the members and contribute to the social learning of the project outcome. The overall positive response and acceptance of results by members of the MSP changed the perceptions and objectives of the land users regarding rangeland management. This type of participatory assessment was therefore found to be very promising in helping to identify more sustainable actions to mitigate rangeland degradation in the Molopo Savanna region. There is, however, still an urgent need to create legal policy frameworks and institution-building, to support local-level implementation in all socio-ecological and economic settings, particularly in communal areas. The second aim was to evaluate the effect of two chemical bush control actions (chemical hand- (HC) and aeroplane control (AC)) as well as rotational grazing (RGM) on the Molopo Savanna vegetation. Results show that rangeland productivity, i.e. forage production and grazing capacity, was found to be negatively related to the woody phytomass in the savanna system studied. Bush thickening influenced grass species composition which was commonly associated with a decline in the abundance of sub-climax to climax grasses, respectively. All three actions (HC, AC & RGM) significantly reduced the woody phytomass and increased forage production and grazing capacity. Although AC resulted in the highest reduction of woody phytomass, the highest forage production and grazing capacity was found under RGM. The second highest grazing capacity was found in HC sites, which was due to a high abundance of perennial, palatable climax grass species. Results from this study also show that the patterns and compositions of grass species, grass functional groups (GFGs) and woody densities indicated by RGM and chemical HC, best resemble a productive and stable savanna system that provides important key resources to support both grazing and browsing herbivores. / MSc (Environmental Sciences), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

The PhD thesis is composed of three chapters and discusses the policy choice under uncertainty and learning in the context of climate change.

Em geral, a relação entre fatores ambientais e a saúde é de natureza sistêmica, envolvendo várias áreas do conhecimento. Um dos desafios dentro dessa questão são as abordagens integradas de avaliação em saúde ambiental, que reúnem dimensões técnico-operacionais, socioeconômicas e políticas, ultrapassando as avaliações que consideram apenas questões de exposição e efeito. O objetivo da presente tese foi avaliar, com base em abordagem de avaliação integrada em saúde ambiental, o impacto à saúde decorrente da implantação de intervenções em saneamento, em populações de comunidades localizadas em unidades de conservação de uso sustentável na região do Médio Juruá, no estado do Amazonas. O processo de avaliação foi amparado na abordagem metodológica Avaliação Integrada de Impacto em Saúde Ambiental (AIISA) e utilizou como principal instrumento conceitual o modelo de organização de indicadores Força Motriz-Pressão-Situação-Exposição-Efeitos-Ações (FPSEEA), aplicado em dois estágios bem definidos: i) Estágio Antes: período anterior à implantação das intervenções em saneamento nas comunidades estudadas e ii) Estágio Depois: período de pelo menos seis meses após a finalização da implantação e funcionamento das intervenções. Os resultados obtidos no componente de efeito a partir da comparação entre os dois estágios, que refletem os efeitos diretos na saúde, apontaram uma redução média de 65% da morbidade por diarreia, 22% da morbidade por parasitoses intestinais e aumento da qualidade de vida da população, representado por uma redução média de 63% de insatisfação com a comunidade e aumento de 100% da percepção da relação entre o aumento da qualidade de vida e o saneamento. Esses resultados indicam que houve impactos positivos à saúde da população decorrentes das intervenções em saneamento. O modelo FPSEEA utilizado trouxe informações que permitiram uma análise ampliada e em cadeia dos impactos da variação de cenários para exprimir esses efeitos positivos na saúde. Assim, foi possível realizar uma avaliação integrada do impacto de ações em saneamento na redução de doenças e no aumento da qualidade de vida das populações estudadas. Nesse processo avaliativo foi possível detectar de maneira consistente, dentro do contexto da área de estudo, que além dos efeitos na saúde, aspectos importantes na cadeia causal contribuíram de forma integrada para a expressão desse efeito. Em relação ao modelo FPSEEA aplicado no contexto da tese, concluímos que os pressupostos utilizados em sua concepção permitem que ajustes sejam feitos no modelo de acordo com o contexto para o qual o seu uso foi proposto, sendo possível validar e ajustar os elementos e indicadores do modelo proposto para o seu uso em outras propostas de avaliações integradas com enfoque nos impactos à saúde decorrentes de ações em saneamento. Dessa maneira, reforçamos que, mesmo diante da escala local dos resultados, o processo de avaliação contribuiu para auxiliar o planejamento de ações no campo do saneamento, viabilizando novos modelos de intervenções, redefinição de prioridades e redirecionamento de ações relacionadas ao saneamento e saúde, buscando a redução da pobreza, universalização do acesso ao saneamento e garantia dos direitos essenciais do cidadão com equidade no meio rural brasileiro. / In general , the relationship between environmental factors and health is systemic in nature , involving various fields of knowledge . One of the challenges of this issue involves integrated environmental health impact assessment approaches, which combine technical and operational, socio-economic and political dimensions, surpassing aproaches that consider only unicausualities of exposure and effect . The aim of this thesis was to evaluate , based on an integrated environmental health impact assessment , the health impact resulting from the implementation of water supply and sanitation interventions in populations of communities located in sustainable use forest reserves in the Middle Juruá river in state of Amazonas . The evaluation process was supported in methodological approach Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment (IEHIA) and used as the main conceptual framework a model for organizing indicators Driving Force - Pressure - Situation - Exposure - Effect - Action (DPSEEA) , applied in two well defined stages : i ) Before Stage : prior to the implementation of interventions in water supply and sanitation in the studied communities and ii ) After Stage : period of at least six months after implementaion and operation of the interventions . The results regarting the Effect component from the comparison between the two stages, which reflects directly the effect on health, , showed an average reduction of 65% in morbidity from diarrhea , 22 % of morbidity from intestinal parasites and an increased quality of life , represented by a mean reduction of 63 % of dissatisfaction with the community and 100% increase in the perception of the relationship between the increase in quality of life and sanitation. These results indicate that there were positive health impacts due to due the implemented interventions. The model DPSEEA used in this study brought information which enabeled the development of a broad and integrated analysis of the impacts of the variation in cenarios to express these positive health effects. Thus, it was possible to perform an integrated assessment of the impact of waster supply and sanitation interventions to reduce disease and increase the quality of life of the studied population. This evaluation process enabeled the cosistent detection, within the context of the study area, that in addition to the health effects , important aspects of the causal chain contributed in a integrated way to the expression of this effect . Regarding the DPSEEA model applied in the context of the thesis, we conclude that the assumptions used in its design allow adjustments to be made in accordance to the context for which the model is supposed to be used. This enables the validation and ajustment of the elements and indicators of the proposed model to allow its use in other Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment proposals which focus on health impacts of water supply and sanitation interventions. Thus, we reinforce that even with the local scale carcateristicas of our results, the evaluation process contributed to assist the planning of actions in the field of water supply and sanitation , enabling new models of interventions , redefining priorities and redirecting actions related to water supply and sanitation to increase health, reduce poverty, and ensure essential rights to citizens of rural areas of Brazil with equity.

The aim of this study is, firstly, to determine if there is a difference in the perceptions of academic staff members and students concerning the purpose of their actual assessment practices. Secondly, the aim of the study is to identify what the challenges are that may influence the implementation of effective assessment practices. A case study design, involving the academic staff and students within the Baccalaureus Educationis (BEd) Early Childhood Development, Foundation Phase Programme in the Faculty of Education, University of Pretoria, was used. The sample consisted of 30 academic staff members and 114 third-year students who each completed a standardised questionnaire (quantitative data), to get a broader idea of their perceptions and understanding of the purpose of assessment practices. The questionnaire was followed up by face to face interviews (qualitative data) with three staff members and three students in order to validate and supplement the quantitative data. The method employed to analyse the collected data was a concurrent nested, mixed method design. The quantitative data analyses were done using SPSS computer software to determine the frequencies for both staff and students’ perceptions. Statistical data analyses were also performed using a non-parametric chi-square technique. The collected qualitative data was first analysed using manifest and content data analysis. Codes had been developed after which the data was further analysed using SPSS computer software to determine the frequencies for both staff and students’ perceptions. The standards model which represents assessment reform (enquiry or outcomes-based assessment) and the measurement model (traditional assessment) were used as framework to interpret the collected data. The results of my study showed that both academic staff and students perceived the main purpose of assessment as developmental or formative. However, the stated importance of the formative purpose of assessment was not evident in the practice of academic staff. For example, academic staff reported that within their assessment practices, assessment either took place at the beginning of the module, sometimes during the module, but mostly at the end of the module. Furthermore, staff reported that within their assessment practices, self- and peer-assessment and feedback were infrequent occurrences and that feedback to students was almost never followed up with actions. Academic staff perceived the biggest challenge for effective assessment practice to be large class sizes, while students perceived the biggest challenge to be the reliability of assessment, including marking reliability and assessor reliability. I concluded that the standards model of assessment is the desirable model in formal education and especially Higher Education, because it attempts to reflect what has been learned in criterion referenced terms. However, in this study, as well as in the Maclellan study (2001) and LOAP study (Fun, 2005), academic staff declared a commitment to formative purposes of assessment, but students perceived that staff engages in practices that were not in line with the standards model of assessment. / Dissertation (MEd)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Curriculum Studies / unrestricted

O trabalho avalia a importância dos atributos que afetam a dinâmica da água subsuperficial, em 4 níveis de escala, para a região entre São Carlos e Ribeirão Preto, nordeste do Estado de São Paulo. A área é constituída, principalmente, por arenitos da formação Botucatu e basaltos da formação Serra Geral, recobertos por materiais inconsolidados, com espessura variando de 1 a 20 m. O estudo na escala 1:100.000 considerou 27 atributos, incluindo características dos materiais geológicos, geomorfologia, precipitações e fontes de contaminação. A técnica AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) foi utilizada para determinar o potencial relativo em termos de contaminação das águas subsuperficiais. Os resultados indicaram que o risco atual de contaminação das águas subsuperficiais é relativamente baixo, devendo ser analisado com maior detalhe para algumas bacias consideradas de risco mais acentuado. Foram realizados levantamentos em escala 1:10.000 e 1:20.000 para as bacias hidrográficas do córrego do Vaçununga (cidade de Luis Antônio) e Ribeirão do Tamanduá (próximo às cidades de Cravinhos e Serrana), respectivamente. Estas bacias foram selecionadas a partir do estudo em escala 1:100.000 devido as suas características ambientais. Foram selecionados 12 cenários de chuvas para avaliar a relação entre infiltração e escoamento superficial utilizando os modelos de infiltração de Morel - Seytoux & Khanji (1976) e Chu (1978). Os valores de descarga nos exutório e análise de recessão nestas bacias foram medidos por 2 anos. A bacia hidrográfica do córrego do esgoto (próximo a Ribeirão Preto) foi selecionada para a modelagem numérica (escala 1:1.000) por apresentar o maior índice potencial ao evento de contaminação das águas subsuperficiais na escala 1:100.000. A modelagem auxiliou na definição da direção do fluxo e indicou tendências de migração dos contaminantes oriundos do lixão instalado nesta bacia (modelagem de fluxo e de transporte). / This work presents the results obtained from integrated assessment of the attributes related to groundwater dynamic in 4 scales in the São Carlos and Ribeirão Preto region, northeast of State of São Paulo, Brazil. This area is constituted of sandstones of the Botucatu formation and basalt of the Serra Geral formation. Unconsolidated materials cover these rocks with thickness varying from 1 to 20 m. For 1:100.000 scale were considered 27 attributes of the geological materials, geomorphology, rainfall and pollutant sources. The AHP method (Analytic Hierarchy Process) was used to determine the relative degree in terms of groundwater contamination potential. The results show that the risk level for groundwater contamination is predominately low, and few basins are classified with high risk level. Studies were developed in 1:20.000 and 1:10.000 scales for córrego do Vaçununga (city of Luis Antônio) and ribeirão do Tamanduá (near to cities of Cravinhos e Serrana) basins, respectively. These basins were selected from the study in 1:100.000 scale due to environmental characteristics. It were considered 12 rainfall scenarios to evaluate the infiltration and overland flow rates using the Morel - Seytoux & Khanji (1976) and Chu (1978) model\'s, and recession and discharge rates were measured for 2 years. The córrego do esgoto basin (next to city of Ribeirão Preto) was selected for numerical modelling at 1:1.000 scale to simulate the groundwater flow and contaminantplumes, because it presented highest risk level in the 1:100.000 study.

Cette thèse met en perspective un ensemble d’éléments des scénarios socio-économiques sous l’angle de la modélisation du climat. Ces éléments contribuent à améliorer la compréhension de l’état actuel des sciences du climat en ce qui concerne les scénarios. En parallèle, ces éléments montrent le potentiel du récent modèle compact du système Terre OSCAR v2.2.Le premier élément concerne l’incertitude des émissions. Bien que les inventaires d’émissions soient incertains, nous ignorons dans quelle mesure ces incertitudes affectent les projections climatiques. Nous quantifions cet impact pour les émissions des énergies fossiles, la principale cause du changement climatique. Nous montrons que ces incertitudes dans les émissions sont amenées à augmenter avec l’utilisation des énergies fossiles non-conventionnelles, mais qu’elles n’augmentent pas de manière significative l’incertitude dans les projections climatiques. Ceci est vrai pour la majeure partie des variables, comme l’augmentation de la température moyenne de surface, mais pas pour certaines qui sont d’intérêt pour la qualité de l’air.Le second élément est une analyse climatique des récents scénarios Shared Socio-Economic Pathways. Nous identifions des failles dans la base de données, que nous comblons. Sur cette base, nous calculons les projections climatiques des scénarios SSP. Nous montrons la présence d’incohérence dans l’utilisation des émissions CO2 dues à l’utilisation des terres (LUC) calculées par les modèles intégrés (IAMs) et des variables associées à l’utilisation des terres. Nous identifions des compromis dans les réductions d’émissions pour l’atténuation du changement climatique. Nous réévaluons de manière plus robuste les budgets carbone. Les incertitudes dans les élévations de températures sont examinées en détail.Le troisième élément concerne les émissions négatives. La plupart des scénarios qui limitent le changement climatique bien en dessous de 2°C par rapport au préindustriel, respectant ainsi l’Accord de Paris, utilisent des émissions négatives. A l’aide d’une version développée de OSCAR v2.2, nous calculons les implications pour le système Terre de plusieurs aspects des techniques d’absorption de dioxyde de carbone (CDR). Nous identifions les réversibilités des différentes parties du système terre, et évaluons le potentiel de refroidissement de ces techniques. Nous montrons aussi que la reforestation pourrait être moins apte à atténuer le changement climatique, du fait du changement dans l’albedo de surface. Par ailleurs, le potentiel d’alcalinisation des eaux de surfaces pour atténuer le changement climatique pourrait être inférieur à celui initialement estimé.Dans l’ensemble, cette thèse identifie des défauts dans le développement actuel des scénarios. Certains ne constituent pas un problème pour les projections climatiques, comme les incertitudes dans le calcul des émissions. D’autres nécessitent une attention particulière, comme le calcul des émissions CO2 dues au LUC par les IAMs ou l’éventuelle surestimation des capacités des techniques de CDR. Ce travail renforce l’urgence du besoin d’atténuation du changement climatique. / This thesis puts into perspective different elements of socio-economic scenarios from a climate change modelling point of view. These elements contribute at improving the comprehension of the current state of climate sciences regarding the scenarios. In the meantime, these elements demonstrate the potential of the recent reduced-form Earth System Model OSCAR v2.2.The first element concerns the uncertainty of emissions. Although emission inventories are uncertain, we ignore what impact on climate change have these uncertainties. We quantify this impact for fossil-fuel emissions, the major contributor to climate change. We show that the uncertainties in emissions are expected to increase with the use of non-conventional fuels, but that they do not increase significantly the uncertainty from Earth system modelling in variables, such as the increase in global surface temperature.The second element is a climate assessment of the recent Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We identify loopholes in the SSP database, and we complete it to calculate the climate projections under these scenarios. Our conclusions suggest inconsistencies in CO2 emissions from Land Use Change (LUC) calculated by the Integrated Assessment Models and in the associated land variables. We identify trade-offs between greenhouse gases in the mitigation of climate change. Using a robust assessment, new carbon budgets are proposed. The uncertainties in increases in global surface temperature are discussed.The third element concerns the negative emissions. Most climate scenarios limiting global warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels, thus respecting the Paris Agreement, use negative emissions. Using a developed version of OSCAR v2.2, we evaluate the implications for the Earth system of different aspects of different Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies. We identify the reversibility in the different components of the Earth system and calculate the cooling potential of carbon dioxide removal technologies. We also show that the potential of afforestation/reforestation techniques may be impeded by the change in albedo, and that the potential of oceanic enhanced weathering may be lower than expected.Overall, this thesis identifies loopholes in the current development of scenarios. Some do not hinder current conclusions regarding climate change, such as the uncertainties in emission inventories. Others call for further analysis, such as the inconsistencies in the use of CO2 emissions from LUC or the eventual overestimation of the potential of some CDR technologies. It emphasizes the need for an urgent mitigation of climate change.