Master of Science / Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering / Caterina M. Scoglio / The generalized epidemic modeling framework simulator (GEMFsim) is a tool designed by Dr. Faryad Sahneh, former PhD student in the NetSE group. GEMFsim simulates stochastic spreading process over complex networks. It was first introduced in Dr. Sahneh’s doctoral dissertation "Spreading processes over multilayer and interconnected networks" and implemented in Matlab. As limited by Matlab language, this implementation typically solves only small networks; the slow simulation speed is unable to generate enough results in reasonable time for large networks. As a generalized tool, this framework must be equipped to handle large networks and contain sufficient support to provide adequate performance. The C language, a low-level language that effectively maps a program to machine in- structions with efficient execution, was selected for this study. Following implementation of GEMFsim in C, I packed it into Python and R libraries, allowing users to enjoy the flexibility of these interpreted languages without sacrificing performance. GEMFsim limitations are not limited to language, however. In the original algorithm (Gillespie’s Direct Method), the performance (simulation speed) is inversely proportional to network size, resulting in unacceptable speed for very large networks. Therefore, this study applied the Next Reaction Method, making the performance irrelevant of network size. As long as the network fits into memory, the speed is proportional to the average node degree of the network, which is not very large for most real-world networks. This study also applied parallel computing in order to advantageously utilize multiple cores for repeated simulations. Although single simulation can not be paralleled as a Markov process, multiple simulations with identical network structures were run simultaneously, sharing one network description in memory.

This thesis is concerned with disturbance amplification in interconnected systems which may consist of a large number of elements. The main focus is on passive control of a chain of interconnected masses where a single point is subject to an external disturbance. The problem arises in the design of multi-storey buildings subjected to earthquake disturbances, but applies in other situations such as bidirectional control of vehicle platoons. It is shown that the scalar transfer functions from the disturbance to a given intermass displacement can be represented as a complex iterative map. This description is used to establish uniform boundedness of the H∞-norm of these transfer functions for certain choices of interconnection impedance. A graphical method for selecting an impedance such that the H∞-norm is no greater than a prescribed value for an arbitrary length of the mass chain is given. A design methodology for a fixed length of the mass chain is also provided. A case study for a 10-storey building model demonstrates the validity of this method.

The problem of distributed state estimation over a sensor network in which a set of nodes collaboratively estimates the state of continuous-time linear systems is considered. Distributed estimation strategies improve estimation and robustness of the sensors to environmental obstacles and sensor failures in a sensor network. In particular, this dissertation focuses on the benefits of weight adaptation of the interconnection gains in distributed Kalman filters, distributed unknown input observers, and distributed functional observers. To this end, an adaptation strategy is proposed with the adaptive laws derived via a Lyapunov-redesign approach. The justification for the gain adaptation stems from a desire to adapt the pairwise difference of estimates as a function of their agreement, thereby enforcing an interconnection-dependent gain. In the proposed scheme, an adaptive gain for each pairwise difference of the interconnection terms is used in order to address edge-dependent differences in the estimates. Accounting for node-specific differences, a special case of the scheme is presented where it uses a single adaptive gain in each node estimate and which uniformly penalizes all pairwise differences of estimates in the interconnection term. In the case of distributed Kalman filters, the filter gains can be designed either by standard Kalman or Luenberger observers to construct the adaptive distributed Kalman filter or adaptive distributed Luenberger observer. Stability of the schemes has been shown and it is independent of the graph topology and therefore the schemes are applicable to both directed and undirected graphs. The proposed algorithms offer a significant reduction in communication costs associated with information flow by the nodes compared to other distributed Kalman filters. Finally, numerical studies are presented to illustrate the performance and effectiveness of the proposed adaptive distributed Kalman filters, adaptive distributed unknown input observers, and adaptive distributed functional observers.

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / This study aims to develop a planning system on multiple spatial and temporal scales, and apply it to the Brazilian electric sector and Cearà State, Jaguaribe Metropolitan System. For realization of this proposal, we have been considered some temporal scales: short-term (up to 1 month), short term (up to one year) and medium to long term (1-10 years and 10-30 years, respectively). To obtain estimates of the flow of short-term rainfall forecasts from atmospheric models for later entry in the hydrological rainfall-runoff model are used. To short term scale were considered stochastic and statistical models, as the Periodic Autoregressive type (PAR), Periodic Autoregressive with exogenous variables (PARx) and K-nearest neighbor models, and the use of global atmospheric models as input to hydrological rainfall-runoff model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP). For the range of the medium term were considered auto regressive models (AR) and Fourier and wavelets. We used data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) as input in hydrological rainfall-runoff model for long-term scale. For the weather forecast, as the rain threshold adopted in the construction of the contingency table increases, the quality of the forecasts decreases, except for the adjustment index. Thus, the system of numerical prediction proves efficient in detecting the occurrence of rainfall of less intensity, with most satisfactory results in the North and Northeast regions of Brazil. On seasonal scale the models feature up better than the climatology. Likewise, in the range of medium-term models based on Fourier series and wavelets have better likelihood than the weather. In multi-scale, there are differences in the future shown by the projections of the CMIP5 models that were analyzed for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 the XXI century scenarios, but in the North sector of the National Interconnected System (SIN), most models indicate negative trend, diverging only in magnitude. / O presente trabalho visa elaborar um sistema de planejamento em mÃltiplas escalas temporais e espaciais e aplicÃ-lo ao setor elÃtrico brasileiro e ao sistema Jaguaribe-Metropolitano do Estado do CearÃ. Para realizaÃÃo desta proposta, foram consideradas algumas escalas temporais: curtÃssimo prazo (atà um mÃs), curto prazo (atà um ano) e mÃdio e longo prazo (1 a 10 anos e atà 30 anos, respectivamente). Para obtenÃÃo das previsÃes de vazÃes de curtÃssimo prazo sÃo utilizadas as previsÃes de precipitaÃÃo a partir de modelos atmosfÃricos, para posterior entrada no modelo hidrolÃgico chuva-vazÃo. Para escala de curto prazo foram considerados modelos estocÃsticos e estatÃsticos, como do tipo PeriÃdico Autorregressivo (PAR), PeriÃdico Autorregressivo com variÃveis exÃgenas (PARx) e K-vizinhos, e o uso de modelos atmosfÃricos globais como entrada do modelo hidrolÃgico chuva-vazÃo Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP). Na escala de mÃdio prazo foram considerados modelos autorregressivos (AR) e as transformadas de Fourier e ondeletas. Para escala de longo prazo foram utilizados dados provenientes do Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) como dados de entrada no modelo hidrolÃgico chuva-vazÃo. Quanto à previsÃo de tempo, à medida que o limiar de chuva adotado na construÃÃo da tabela de contingÃncia aumenta, a qualidade das previsÃes diminui, exceto para o Ãndice acerto. Dessa forma, o sistema de previsÃo numÃrica mostra-se eficiente em detectar a ocorrÃncia de chuvas de menor intensidade, apresentando resultados mais satisfatÃrios nas regiÃes Norte e Nordeste do Brasil. Na escala sazonal, os modelos apresentam-se melhor que a climatologia. Da mesma forma, na escala de mÃdio prazo, os modelos baseados na sÃrie de Fourier e ondeletas apresentam melhor verossimilhanÃa do que a climatologia. Na escala plurianual, hà divergÃncias quanto ao futuro mostrado pelas projeÃÃes dos modelos do CMIP5 que foram analisados para os cenÃrios RCP8.5 e RCP4.5 do sÃculo XXI, porÃm no setor Norte do Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN), a maioria dos modelos sinaliza tendÃncia negativa, divergindo apenas em magnitude.

Thesis (Master of Engineering in Electrical Engineering))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2018. / Industry, which forms the lifeblood of South Africa’s economy, is under threat as a result of increased electricity pricing and unstable supply. Wheeling of energy, which is a method to transport electricity generated from an Independent Power Producer (IPP) to an industrial consumer via the utility’s network, could potentially address this problem. Unlike South Africa’s electricity landscape, which is highly regulated and monopolized by Eskom, most developed countries have deregulated their electricity market, which has led to greater competition for electricity supply. This thesis, presents an evaluation of the economic viability and technical concerns arising from third party transportation of energy between an IPP and an industrial consumer. IPP’s are able to generate electricity from various renewable distributed generation (DG) sources, which are often physically removed from the load. In practice, electricity could be generated by an IPP and connected to a nearby Main Transmission Substation (MTS) in a region with high solar, wind or hydropower resources and sold to off-takers a few hundred kilometres away. Using two software simulation packages, technical and economic analysis have been conducted based on load data from two industrial sites, to determine the viability of wheeling energy between an IPP and off-taker. The viability will be evaluated based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE); net present cost (NPC); DG technology; distance from the load; available renewable resources; impact on voltage profile, fault contribution, thermal loading of the equipment and power loss. The results from both case studies show that the impact of DG on the voltage profile is negligible. The greatest impact on voltage profile was found to be at the site closest to the load. Asynchronous and synchronous generators have a greater fault contribution than inverter-based DG. The fault contribution is proportional to the distance from the load. Overall, thermal loading of lines increased marginally, but decreased based on distances from the load. Power loss on short lines is negligible but there is a significant loss on the line between the load and DG based on the distance from the load. Electricity generated from wind power is the most viable based on LCOE and NPC. For larger wind systems, as illustrated by the second case study, grid parity has already been reached. Wheeling of wind energy has already proven to be an economically viable option. According to future cost projection, large scale solar energy will become viable by 2019. The concept of wheeling energy between an IPP and off-taker has technical and economic merit. Wheeling charges are perceived to be high, but this is not the case as wheeling tariffs consist of standard network charges. In the future, renewable energy will continue to mature based on technology and cost. Solar energy, including lithium-ion battery back-up technology, looks promising based on future cost projections. Deregulation of the electricity market holds the key to the successful implementation of energy wheeling as it will open the market up for greater competition.

In this dissertation, new model reference adaptive control architectures are presented with stability, performance, and robustness considerations, to address challenges related to the verification of adaptive control systems. The challenges associated with the transient performance of adaptive control systems is first addressed using two new approaches that improve the transient performance. Specifically, the first approach is predicated on a novel controller architecture, which involves added terms in the update law entitled artificial basis functions. These terms are constructed through a gradient optimization procedure to minimize the system error between an uncertain dynamical system and a given reference model during the learning phase of an adaptive controller. The second approach is an extension of the first one and minimizes the effect of the system uncertainties more directly in the transient phase. In addition, this approach uses a varying gain to enforce performance bounds on the system error and is further generalized to adaptive control laws with nonlinear reference models. Another challenge in adaptive control systems is to achieve system stability and a prescribed level performance in the presence of actuator dynamics. It is well-known that if the actuator dynamics do not have sufficiently high bandwidth, their presence cannot be practically neglected in the design since they limit the achievable stability of adaptive control laws. Another major contribution of this dissertation is to address this challenge. In particular, first a linear matrix inequalities-based hedging approach is proposed, where this approach modifies the ideal reference model dynamics to allow for correct adaptation that is not affected by the presence of actuator dynamics. The stability limits of this approach are computed using linear matrix inequalities revealing the fundamental stability interplay between the parameters of the actuator dynamics and the allowable system uncertainties. In addition, these computations are used to provide a depiction of the feasible region of the actuator parameters such that the robustness to variation in the parameters is addressed. Furthermore, the convergence properties of the modified reference model to the ideal reference model are analyzed. Generalizations and applications of the proposed approach are then provided. Finally, to improve upon this linear matrix inequalities-based hedging approach a new adaptive control architecture using expanded reference models is proposed. It is shown that the expanded reference model trajectories more closely follow the trajectories of the ideal reference model as compared to the hedging approach and through the augmentation of a command governor architecture, asymptotic convergence to the ideal reference model can be guaranteed. To provide additional robustness against possible uncertainties in the actuator bandwidths an estimation of the actuator bandwidths is incorporated. Lastly, the challenge presented by the unknown physical interconnection of large-scale modular systems is addressed. First a decentralized adaptive architecture is proposed in an active-passive modular framework. Specifically, this architecture is based on a set-theoretic model reference adaptive control approach that allows for command following of the active module in the presence of module-level system uncertainties and unknown physical interconnections between both active and passive modules. The key feature of this framework allows the system error trajectories of the active modules to be contained within apriori, user-defined compact sets, thereby enforcing strict performance guarantees. This architecture is then extended such that performance guarantees are enforced on not only the actuated portion (active module) of the interconnected dynamics but also the unactuated portion (passive module). For each proposed adaptive control architecture, a system theoretic approach is included to analyze the closed-loop stability properties using tools from Lyapunov stability, linear matrix inequalities, and matrix mathematics. Finally, illustrative numerical examples are included to elucidate the proposed approaches.

The goal of this research was to determine the relative quality of near shore marine areas by investigating their influence on Haemulidae community structure, distribution pattern, condition, and growth. Habitat was defined at the small spatial scale of individual habitat types such as seagrass beds, mangroves and coral reefs, and at the broader spatial scale of the interconnection of these individual habitat types within a mosaic (IHM). Ten spatial, biotic and abiotic parameters (percentage coverage of sand, mangroves, hard substrate, and seagrass, turbidity, pH, salinity, temperature, average depth, and predator density) were investigated. These environmental characteristics acted as proxies for the quality of IHMs. The major findings of the research were: (1) IHMs and discrete habitat types in tropical marine systems are not always equal in quality. Further, the highest quality IHMs/discrete habitat types have the critical resources whether spatial, abiotic or biotic, at the optimum levels needed by organisms to carry out their critical life functions; (2) IHMs of the highest quality contain all the discrete habitat types needed by organisms to carry out their life processes in a spatial arrangement that maximizes energy savings; (3) IHMs can be of high quality in the absence of one habitat type, if this habitat type is replaced by another that can take on its ecological role; and (4) the percentage cover of hard substratum and seagrass, temperature, and predator density have a big impact on Haemulidae distribution pattern, community structure, condition and growth. In addition, this research highlighted some of many characteristics of benthic habitats such as type and configuration that should be included in the design of Marine Protected Areas for the effective management of fisheries resources. Effective Marine Protected Areas should have (1) large overall area with benthic habitat types of high quality; (2) spatial configurations with short distances (corridors) between habitat types; (3) spatial arrangements that place all individual habitat types in connection with all other habitat types so that energy expenditure in moving among habitat types is reduced; (4) habitats with high structural complexity; and (5) the inclusion of all the habitat types needed by focal organisms to carry out their life processes, or surrogate habitat types that can take on the role of ones that are absent.

Currently, major power systems almost invariably operate under interconnected conditions to transfer power in a stable and reliable manner. Multi-area reliability evaluation has thus become an invaluable tool in the planning and operation of such systems. Multi - area reliability evaluation is typically done by considering equivalent tie lines between different areas in an integrated power system. It gives approximate results for the reliability indices of a power system as it models each of the areas as a single node to which are connected the entire area generation and loads. The intratransmission lines are only indirectly modeled during the calculation of equivalent tie lines' capacities. This method is very widely used in the power industry, but the influence of the various approximations and assumptions, which are incorporated in this method, on reliability calculations has not been explored. The objective of the research work presented in this thesis is the development of a new method called Composite system based multi - area reliability model, which does multi - area reliability evaluation considering the whole composite system. It models the transmission system in detail and also takes into account the loss sharing policy within an area and no - load loss sharing policy among the areas. The proposed method is applied to standard IEEE 24 bus Reliability Test System (RTS) and the traditional equivalent tie-line method is applied to the multi-area configuration of the same test system. The results obtained by both the methods are analyzed and compared. It is found that the traditional model, although having some advantages, may not give accurate results.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1991. / Vita. Abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 187-192). Also available via the Internet.

D. Tech. Electrical Engineering. / Discusses the operations and planning of power systems is a complex task, mostly with many intricate manoeuvres to ensure reliable network operations such that the active power losses are reduced and the network voltage proles are improved without compromising the network security. Then the question is, what is the role of the inherent structural characteristics in solving power system problems? Although, the inherent structural characteristics of a power system network are embedded within the load flow formulation to some extent, their full capabilities in solving the problems of the network have not been holistically investigated. The fundamental circuit theory law (Ohm's law), which is a linear equation, clearly demonstrates the importance of the structural topology of the network. However, this importance is confounded by the reformulation of the fundamental law to nonlinear load flow equations. This research investigated the role of the inherent structural characteristics in solving power system problems from a circuit theory perspective.