Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2008. / Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 159-164). Also available online in Scholars' Bank; and in ProQuest, free to University of Oregon users.

Thesis advisor: Susanto Basu / Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi / Empirical studies highlight that countries that trade intermediate goods exhibit more synchronized business cycles. This positive correlation raises the question of causality. Traditional theoretical mechanisms propose the direction where higher bilateral trade in intermediate goods causes increased business cycle correlations. However, the data shows that trade is positively correlated with comovements in GDP as well as total factor productivity (TFP) and the current work in the literature explains only the first relation. I build a small open economy model that makes two contributions -- first, it predicts both positive correlations as seen in the data. Second, it explains potential causality in the reverse direction, i.e. countries might choose trade partners based on the properties of their business cycles. Specifically, the model predicts that when the elasticity of substitution between domestic capital and intermediate imports is low, i.e. the country is constrained by domestic technology, there is greater benefit from trading with a positively correlated source and self-insuring through capital accumulation. I provide empirical evidence of this condition in the data by estimating the elasticity of substitution between capital and intermediates by industry using a panel of countries. We use annual time series data and filtering methods to document the key statistics of the India business cycle. Output, consumption and investment are more volatile than in developed economies. Like in developed countries, consumption is less volatile and investment is more volatile than output in the Indian data. Unlike in the former, investment is not highly correlated with output. We test whether a standard real business cycle model with technology and fiscal shocks, with parameters calibrated for the Indian economy can replicate the features of the business cycle. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2011. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

本論文集收錄了三篇有關開放經濟宏觀經濟學的文章。 / 第一篇文章研究了中國從1978年到2010年實際經濟週期。本文首先詳細記錄了中國實際經濟週期三十多年來經驗特征, 我們發現中國的實際經濟週期表現出不同于其他新興市場國家和發達國家的獨特的實際經濟週期經驗特征。再則，我們通過建立實際經濟週期模型和貝葉斯估計方法來檢驗現有新興市場實際經濟週期理論能夠在多大程度上解釋中國實際經濟週期。在我們的估計結果中，我們發現一個包含持久性生產力衝擊的基準模型不能很好的解釋中國實際經濟週期。而在基準模型的基礎上添加了國際金融摩擦的擴展模型（我們稱之為金融摩擦模型）能夠較好的解釋中國實際經濟週期。國際金融摩擦替代了持久性生產力衝擊的作用并優化了模型擬合。 / 第二篇文章研究了發展中國家廣泛使用的財政性油價穩定政策的福利影響。一些評論認為作為發展中國家的主要貿易對象的發達國家，特別是美國，能夠從發展中國家的油價穩定政策中獲利。我們的文章研究了這個論題，我們建立了一個具有美元非對稱性定價特征的兩國家模型。我們發現發展中國家的最優油價補貼率以及它的全球福利影響關鍵性的取決於是否貨幣政策能夠有效的應對油價衝擊。當貨幣政策能夠完全有效並且能夠央行使用最優貨幣政策時， 發展中國家則不需要財政性的油價穩定政策。然而當貨幣政策不能夠完全有效時，即使能夠使用最優貨幣政策，發展中國家還是需要油價補貼來穩定油價。而對美國來說，由於存在非對稱性的美元定價，美國反而受到福利損失。 / 第三篇文章研究了進口中間產品價格衝擊的福利影響和傳遞機制。隨著垂直貿易的快速發展，世界中間產品價格的波動成為了小型開放經濟體國家的主要不確定性衝擊之一。我們建立並且估計了一個兩部門的價格粘性的模型來解釋中間產品價格衝擊如何通過垂直貿易途徑對小型開放經濟體產生影響。我們發現其影響關鍵性的取決于垂直貿易結構和匯率制度。再次，其影響也顯著取決于國際金融市場准入的程度。 / This thesis consists of three essays on Open-Economy Macroeconomics. / The first essay studies real business cycle in Chinese economy. During the past three decades, Chinas economy experienced sizable economic fluctuations along with rapid economic growth. However, the research on Chinese real business cycle is limited. In this paper, we document some stylized facts of Chinese real business cycle from 1978 to 2010. We find that Chinese real business cycle exhibits a mixed pattern that is not consistent with those of developed economies or emerging market economies. Moreover, we investigate to what extent the existing theories of emerging market real business cycle can explain Chinese data using Bayesian estimation of small open economy real business cycle models. Our results show that a benchmark model with permanent pro-ductivity shocks cannot account for stylized facts of Chinese real business cycle very well. Instead, a Financial-Friction model that augments the benchmark with inter-national financial friction significantly improves the model fitness. And international financial friction dominates the role of permanent productivity shocks. / The second essay studies oil price stabilization polices that are adopted extensively in developing countries. Some argue that developed economies, especially the US, may gain from these policies through trade. This paper studies this issue in a two-country model with dollar currency pricing. We find that the optimal level of oil price stabilization chosen by developing countries and its implications for global welfare depend critically on whether monetary policy can eectively respond to oil shocks. In an environment without monetary shocks, when optimal monetary policies are considered, there is no role for oil price stabilization in developing countries. However, to make the oil price stabilization policy redundant, optimal monetary policy is not necessary. Some non-optimal endogenous monetary policies satisfying certain conditions can also make the developing countries choose zero oil price stabilization. The results change when there are monetary shocks. Even with optimal monetary policies, the developing countries will choose a positive level of oil price stabilization. However, due to dollar currency pricing, the US actually loses from the stabilization policy. Our results are well supported by the quantitative analysis in a full-fledged dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. / The third essay studies the welfare implication and transmission mechanism of imported intermediate goods price shock. With the rapid growth of vertical trade in small open economies, the world price fluctuation of intermediate goods has increasingly become one of major uncertainties faced by these economies. This paper develops and estimates a two-sector sticky-price model to show how intermediate goods price shock affects small open economies through vertical trade. We find that the effects depend critically on the structure of vertical trade and exchange rate policy regime. Furthermore, the quantitative eects of intermediate goods price shock also change significantly with the degree of financial integration. / 1. Real business cycle in Chinese economy -- 2. Oil price stabilization and global welfare -- 3. The effects of intermediate good price shocks on small open economy. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Wu, Zhouheng. / Thesis (Ph.D.) Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2014. / Includes bibliographical references. / Abstracts also in Chinese.

Typescript. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1986. / Bibliography: leaves 115-120. / Microfilm. / x, 120 leaves 29 cm

近年來雙邊甚或區域間簽訂自由貿易協定之風盛行，本文欲探討其影響。參考Caliendo and Parro(2015)的方法，以考慮部門異質性、投入產出連結以及中間財貿易之模型，計算1995-2013年間三個模型的福利效果。旨在分別檢視1995-2005年間WTO成立十年之影響、2005-2013年間全球120份自由貿易協定生效之效果，以及韓國此段期間內簽訂自由貿易協定之成果。本文結果顯示，WTO於1995年成立至其後10年間，確實為會員國帶來正面影響，總體而言，多數國家福利效果變動率為正。到了2005-2013年，全球有120份區域貿易協定生效，亦提升多數國家的福利，然成長幅度不如1995-2005來的顯著。惟韓國受惠於其簽訂自由貿易協定的成效，福利成長得與先前維持相近水準。此外，透過不同模型間的比較，本文發現各模型間的福利效果有明顯差異，顯示現今複雜的國際分工鏈下，完善考量部門間的互動因素實為衡量國際貿易效果的重要課題。