Many mathematical programming models of the selection of investment portfolios assume that the best portfolio at any given level of risk is the portfolio having the highest level of return. The expected level of return is defined as a linear combination of the expected returns of the individual investments contained within the portfolio,and risk is defined in terms of variance of return. This study uses Monte Carlo simulation to establish that if the estimates of the future returns on potential investments are unbiased, the steady-state return on the portfolio is overestimated by the procedure used in the standard models. Under reasonable assumptions concerning the parameters of the estimates of the various returns, this bias is quite sizeable, with the steady-state predicted return often overestimating the steady-state actual return by more than ten percentage points. In addition, it is shown that when the variances of the alternative potential investments are not all equal,a limitation on the variance of the portfolio will reduce the magnitude of the bias. In many reasonable cases, constraining the portfolio variance reduces the bias by a magnitude greater than the amount by which it reduces the predicted portfolio return, causing the steady-state actual return to rise. This implies that return cannot automatically be assumed to be a monotonic function of risk.

The study critically reviews the application of the Sharia investment screening process, from both Sharia and practical perspectives. In practice, there appears to be inconsistencies in the Sharia investment screening criteria among Islamic investment institutions, especially in terms of the tolerance level, as well as the changing of the Sharia rules. This certainly affects the confidence in the Sharia screening criteria standards, which might adversely affect the Islamic mutual funds industry. The non-income generating aspects, such as social and environmental concerns, are not incorporated in the contemporary Islamic investment screening process. This seems to be rather paradoxical, since it contradicts the Sharia-embedded ethical values of fairness, justice and equity. The thesis contends that external audits regarding the implementation of Sharia rules should be adopted to ensure the compliance of the investment with Sharia guidelines. Furthermore, it is desirable for Sharia boards to adopt corporate governance practice and take proactive roles, especially in Muslim countries, in order to influence companies to adopt Sharia-compliant investment practices. The tolerance levels of conventional finance activities of companies in Muslim countries should be re-evaluated and lowered in the Islamic investment screening criteria. This is partly due to the popularity and wide availability of Islamic banking and alternative Sharia instruments to interest-based finance, coupled with the fact that Muslim shareholders form the majority and hence, can vote to influence companies to adopt Sharia-compliant financing modes. In addition, the study provides empirical evidence that the Sharia screening process does not seem to have an adverse impact on either the absolute or the risk-adjusted performance of Islamic equity mutual funds in Saudi Arabia, compared to their conventional counterpart equity mutual funds and also compared to their market benchmarks. This is regardless of the geographical investment focus subgroup examined and the market benchmark used (whether Islamic or conventional). Furthermore, the systematic risk analysis shows that in most cases Islamic equity mutual funds in Saudi Arabia tend to be significantly less exposed to market risk compared to their conventional counterpart equity mutual funds, and compared to their conventional market benchmarks. Thus, the assumption that Sharia investment constraints lead to inferior performance and riskier investment portfolios because of the relatively limited investment universe seems to be rejected. This implies that Muslim investors in Saudi Arabia can choose Islamic investments that are consistent with their beliefs without being forced to either sacrifice performance or expose themselves to higher risk. The investment style analysis also shows that the Sharia screening process does not seem to influence Islamic equity mutual funds in Saudi Arabia towards small or growth companies compared to their conventional counterparts of similar geographical investment focus. Moreover, the study provides empirical evidence that the performance difference between Islamic and conventional socially responsible indices is insignificant despite applying different sets of screening criteria. However, Islamic indices tend to be associated with relatively lower systematic risk compared to their conventional socially responsible counterparts. Therefore, Islamic investment portfolios can be marketed to socially responsible investors who share similar beliefs in terms of excluding certain industries such as tobacco, alcohol, pornography, defense, etc., in spite of no financial filters being used by conventional socially responsible investors. This finding is especially appealing in Muslim countries where there are usually no mutual funds categorized as socially responsible, but rather Islamic. Moreover, the study also provides empirical evidence that incorporating conventional sustainability criteria into the traditional Sharia screening process does not lead to inferior performance or higher exposure to systematic risk. The results indicate that regardless of the restriction used - whether Islamic, socially responsible or Islamic socially responsible - restricted investment portfolios do not seem to be associated with inferior performance or higher exposure to risk. This finding opens the door for Sharia scholars and Muslim investors to reconsider broader social and environmental aspects as part of the Sharia investment screening process. With regards to investment style, Islamic and Islamic socially responsible indices seem to be skewed towards growth cap as compared to their conventional and conventional socially responsible indices, while Islamic socially responsible also leans towards a large cap. This implies that despite the performance similarity between, Islamic, conventional and conventional socially responsible indices, the returns driver of each type of investment tends to be different.

Orientador: Paulo de Barros Correia / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-19T21:23:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Porto_NataliaAddas_M.pdf: 3278634 bytes, checksum: 844ae878f54ff582bbd8d0261e413863 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: A humanidade tem selecionado seus sistemas energéticos incorporando, além dos parâmetros de disponibilidade técnica e viabilidade econômica, os impactos ambientais causados por eles. O mercado de créditos de carbono surge neste contexto ao estabelecer mecanismos de mercado para que partes envolvidas na contribuição de redução/remoção de gases de efeito estufa na atmosfera, no âmbito do Protocolo de Quioto, cumpram o acordo quantificado, ao mesmo tempo em que surgem também novas oportunidades para investimentos nos países em desenvolvimento como o Brasil. Assim, saber como funciona esse mercado é um fator crucial para o aproveitamento das conveniências criadas pelo Protocolo de Quioto. Destarte, considerando as dificuldades para precificação de contratos de créditos carbono no mercado brasileiro, principalmente por ser um mercado muito recente, e ainda com o objetivo de originar maiores investimentos em sistemas energéticos através de energia renovável, a dissertação oferece uma contribuição situada nos seguintes focos: análise de contratos de Reduções Certificadas de Emissões (RCEs) e seleção de projetos do Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL). Precificação, portanto, compreende determinar medidas de benefício e risco unitário ¿/tCO2e), uma vez que as decisões de contratação são instruídas pelo preço da RCE negociado. O modelo de latisse binomial é a principal ferramenta de precificação empregada neste trabalho, usada para calcular o valor médio esperado da RCE para realização de contratos a termo e de opções. Por sua vez, melhores condições para o comércio das RCEs é obtida por uma abordagem da teoria do portfólio proposta por Markowitz, através de projetos MDL relacionados à produção de eletricidade a partir de fontes renováveis de energia no Brasil, onde a energia oferecida por tais fontes são caracterizadas, sobretudo, pela sazonalidade / Abstract: Humanity has selected energy systems by incorporating, beyond the technical and economic feasibility parameters, also the environmental impacts caused by them. The carbon credit market has appears in this context and brings alternative solutions for countries in Annex I to fulfill their emissions targets under Kyoto Protocol and also help developing countries in constructing or maintaining a clean energy mix. Knowing how this market works is crucial to incorporate all the conveniences brought by Kyoto Protocol. Pricing carbon credit market includes determining benefit and risk measures (¿/tCO2e), since the hiring decisions are instructed by the price of CERs traded. The binomial lattice model is the main tool used in this dissertation for pricing, which allow us to calculate the expected value of CERs for realization of forward and options contracts. Given that renewable energy sources are mainly characterized by seasonality, some sources can hedge others. In this sense, better conditions on trading CERs can be achieved through a portfolio theory approach proposed by Markowitz. Considering the difficulties for pricing carbon credits contracts on the Brazilian market, especially because of its recent characteristic, and with the aim of generating greater investments in the energy systems by using renewable energy sources, the present dissertation offers a contribution on: contract analysis applied to Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) and also on selecting projects from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). / Mestrado / Mestre em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos

This study examines the use of leveraged exchange traded funds (LETFs) within a portfolio insurance framework to reduce exposure to downside risk. Investors have learned the importance of mitigating this risk having experienced two “once in a century” events in the last 20 years with the tech crash in the early 2000s and the financial crisis in 2008. Current portfolio insurance strategies are either option based (Leland & Rubinstein, 1976) or constant proportional portfolio insurance (CPPI), (Black & Jones, 1987). The cost of option based strategies can be quite high while a CPPI strategy requires constant rebalancing. This study combines the advantages of each by using LETFs to attain the leverage options provide, while at the same time allowing a greater percentage of the portfolio to be invested in bonds since a position in LETFs relative to a typical market index magnifies equity exposure. Thus, where a standard CPPI strategy may require 50% of the portfolio to be invested in equities, using a 3x LETF only requires approximately 16.7%. Results suggest the use of LETFs within a portfolio insurance framework result in better returns, higher Sharpe, Sortino, Omega, and cumulative prospect values while reducing Value at Risk (VaR) and Excess Shortfall below VaR. This twist on the use of LETFs will be of interest to any investor concerned with mitigating downside risk while allowing participation in increasing markets.

nÃo hà / O presente trabalho buscou verificar se a utilizaÃÃo do indicador fundamentalista dividend yield como critÃrio para a seleÃÃo de ativos à uma estratÃgia eficiente para se obter essa maximizaÃÃo do retorno de um investimento. Para isso, foi usada a tÃcnica de formaÃÃo de carteiras, criando a carteira alvo da pesquisa, composta por aÃÃes de alto dividend yield, e tambÃm uma carteira de controle, compostas por aÃÃes de baixo dividend yield, sendo ambas comparadas à carteira de mercado. Como objetivos secundÃrios, buscou-se incluir na pesquisa uma anÃlise de risco dessas carteiras e outra de desempenho por unidade de risco. Foi concluÃdo nÃo haver evidÃncias estatisticamente significantes da garantia de que uma carteira composta por aÃÃes de alto dividend yield possa superar o mercado, mas foram verificadas evidÃncias que essa carteira possui menor volatilidade que o mercado, podendo ser uma opÃÃo de investimento mais defensiva em momento de cenÃrio macroeconÃmico desfavorÃvel / This study sought to determine whether the use of the indicator fundamentalist dividend yield as a criterion for yield as a criterion for selection of assets is an effective strategy to achieve that maximization of the return on an investment. For this, we used the technique of formation of portfolios, creating the target portfolio of the research, consisting of stocks of high dividend yield, and also a control portfolio, consisting of low dividend yield stocks, and being both compared to the market portfolio. As a secondary objective, we sought to include in the research a risk analysis study of these portfolios and portfolio and other of performance per unit of risk. It was concluded that there was no statistically significant evidences of assurance that a portfolio consisting of high dividend yield stocks can outperform the market, but evidences were found that this portfolio has less volatility than the market, may be a more defensive investment option in times of unfavorable macroeconomic scenario

nÃo hà / Quando a conjuntura econÃmica de um paÃs propicia baixa taxa de juros de mercado, a rentabilidade de aplicaÃÃes ditas seguras, como em renda fixa, deixa de ser negÃcio atrativo para investidores, que optam por submeter-se a um risco maior em busca de maiores rendimentos. Em tais cenÃrios, investidores arriscam-se no mercado acionÃrio, no qual ganhos maiores podem ser auferidos, apesar do risco superior ao da renda fixa. A Teoria Moderna do PortfÃlio mostra que esse risco pode ser reduzido pela diversificaÃÃo de ativos. Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo verificar se um modelo quantitativo baseado na Teoria Moderna do PortfÃlio à capaz ajudar na diversificaÃÃo de um portfÃlio, reduzindo risco a nÃveis inferiores aos da carteira de mercado, enquanto proporciona rendimentos superiores aos de s de mercado. Os testes utilizaram sÃries histÃricas de 36 ativos negociados na BOVESPA entre 1999 e 2012, e foram conduzidos em janelas de amostras de 12, 36, 60 e 120 observaÃÃes. Os resultados mostram que a ampliaÃÃo do horizonte de investimento permite a obtenÃÃo de desempenho superior do portfÃlio selecionado pela otimizaÃÃo baseada na mÃnima variÃncia, comparativamente à aplicaÃÃo livre de risco (CDI) e ao Ãndice Bovespa.