Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Management Graduate School of Business Administration University of the Witwatersrand April 2016 / This thesis examined commodity futures on the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) from two angles; the investors’ perspective and that of the futures exchange. For the former, the research looked at market inefficiencies and resultant arbitrage opportunities while for the latter, extraordinary market movements are examined by exploring how extreme value analysis (EVA) is ideal for exchange risk management and maintaining market integrity. This broadly leads to four empirical contributions to the literature on commodity futures. Using a variety of time series models, wheat contract anomalies are identified by developing new trading rules whose outcomes are superior to any approach based on chance. Monte Carlo simulation employed in an out-of-sample period after accounting for transaction costs establishes that the trading rules are financially profitable. An examination of information flows across four major markets indicated that the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) is the most endogenous market, Euronext and the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE) the most exogenous, while Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) is the most influential and sensitive wheat market. SAFEX is a significant receiver of information but does not impact the other markets. Another contribution, analysing maturity effects by incorporating traded volume, change in open interest, and the bid-ask spread while accounting for multicollinearity and seasonality indicates that only wheat supports the so called maturity effect. Lastly, asymmetry is found in long and short positions in SAFEX contracts, and using extreme value theory (EVT) in margin optimization, evidence is found that price limits significantly impact large contract returns. Several implications arise from these results. SAFEX wheat contract inefficiencies could be attractive to speculators. Wheat margins should be higher nearer maturity. Optimizing margins using EVT could reduce trading costs, increase market attractiveness and liquidity while enhancing price discovery. South Africa should increase wheat production since reducing imports will lower vulnerability to adverse price transmission. JEL Classification: C13, C14, C58, G01, G13, G17 Keywords: Futures market; commodities; volatility; seasonality; information flows, margins / MB2016

Earnings in the South African and Zimbabwean mining industries have been severely impacted by these countries' socio-economic and political changes in the last decade. News reports and international research publications consistently rates Zimbabwe as a country with the highest political risks in the world. In South Africa (SA), the initial mining charter requiring 51% Black Economic Empowerment, was leaked to the press in 2002 before promulgation making international investors weary. The currency, the Rand (R) has strengthened from the US$ from R13.85 in 2002 to R 7.17 in 2007, significantly impacting on returns as investors to shift their portfolio to other sectors. The purpose of this research was to explore the implications of country risk and investor sentiment for Impala Platinum's valuation and provide strategy recommendations to improve its market rating whilst sustaining its competitive advantage as a platform for achieving its 2010 vision. In this study, a brief environmental scan of the mining industry was undertaken focusing on the platinum sector as well as a background review of the industry and a five year performance comparison between Impala and Anglo Platinum. It also reviewed corporate strategy literature as it relates to the research problem as well as theoretical models of investor sentiment and decision making processes. The specific research design was primarily exploratory in nature. The Implats valuation conundrum appears to be a phenomenon and the best way to achieve the main research objective was to identify any new ideas, preliminary explore some possible hypothesis and provide strategy recommendations to the board. The research adopted both quantitative and qualitative designs to focus on understanding the values, attitudes and perceptions of investors, which is interpretive and inductive in nature. A holistic case study was the specific vehicle used to conduct the research. The research population was made up of all investors in different regions of the world. Given that the study specifically related to the Implats valuation relative to Amplats, the sampling was tailored to their common investors. Data was collected using a questionnaire; the likert five scale was used to design the questionnaire. The following recommendations were made as a result of the research. Implats should implement measures to build its value chain and attempt to move to a cost quartile not easy to replicate without significant investment and time. In the short term Implats needs to continue improving on its fundamental values whilst crafting a take over defence strategy. It also needs to improve on its investor relations program to robustly communicate its political risk management strategy. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2006.

International bond market linkages are examined using monthly bond yield data and total return indices on government bonds with ten years to maturity. The bond yield data covers a nineteen-year period from January 1990 to July 2008, while the bond total return index data covers a nine-year period from August 2000 to July 2008. The international bond markets included in the study are Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The examination of international bond market linkages across these markets has important implications for the formulation of effective portfolio diversification strategies. The empirical analysis is carried out in three phases: the preliminary analysis, the principal component analysis (PCA), and the cointegration analysis. For each analysis and for each set of data the full sample period is first analysed and subsequently a five-year rolling window approach is implemented. Accordingly, this makes it possible to capture the time-varying nature of international bond market linkages. The preliminary analysis examines the bond market trends over the sample period, provides descriptive statistics, and reports the correlation coefficients between the selected bond markets. The PCA investigates the interrelationships among the bond markets according to their common sources of movement and identifies which markets tend to move together. The cointegration analysis is carried out using the Johansen cointegration procedure and investigates whether there is long-run comovement between South Africa and the selected bond markets. Where cointegration is found, Vector Error-Correction Models (VECMs) are estimated in order to examine the long-run equilibrium relationships in addition to their short-run adjustments over time. The empirical analysis results were robust, and overall integration between SA and the selected major bond markets remained weak and sporadic. In addition, the results showed that even after accounting for exchange rate differentials, international bond market diversification remained beneficial for a South African investor; and since international bond market linkages remained weak with no observable trend, international bond market diversification will remain beneficial for some time to come for a South African investor.

Organisations are spending a large sum of capital by investing on physical assets in order to improve productivity and gain competitive advantage. It has become imperative that business leadership turn their attention to the development, implementation and sustenance of physical assets management strategies in order to eliminate operational and reliability risk.

Income generating projects represent one strategy adopted by the Department of Social Development to alleviate poverty. The purpose of this study is to explore challenges of an income generating project funded by the Department of Social Development in Kwa-Nobuhle, Uitenhage of the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa., A sample of thirty respondents was drawn from ten income generating projects funded by the Department of Social Development. The sampling method of this study was purposive sampling. Data was gathered through semi-structured questionnaires. Related literature has been reviewed that focuses on income generating projects for poverty alleviation. Various recommendations have been made on the findings of the study. The findings of the study indicated the need for regular visits from the officials of the Department, to conduct monitoring and evaluation. Project members also need training on financial management so they cannot mismanage their finances. The research findings indicated clearly that strategies that were used by the Department were not effective enough to achieve desired goals of poverty alleviation.

Text in English with abstracts in English, Sesotho and isiXhosa / The importance of investment information seeking cannot be overemphasised. Seeking information to support investment decision-making is a key component of every successful investment business. The literature review revealed that informed investors make greater use of accounting disclosures and non-earnings information in order to form more precise earnings expectations. By contrast, a lack of accurate investment information makes it difficult for investors to decide when to buy, hold or sell their investment. This study investigated information needs and seeking behaviour of black investors in the MTN Asonge scheme in Capricorn District of Limpopo Province. The study endeavoured to acquire understanding of investors’ information needs and how they seek information to support their investment decisions. To this end, a qualitative phenomenological research approach was followed. Purposive snowball sampling was applied to sample the study respondents who were later interviewed. Semi-structured, face-to-face interviews were conducted with six investors to collect data which were subsequently analysed thematically. The three types of information sources identified as core to investment decision-making include personal, online and printed information. The findings showed that although the majority of MTN Asonge investors were aware of different formats in which investment information is available, they did not use modern electronic information storing and retrieval strategies, such as conducting online internet searches to access information published on corporate websites. The respondents experienced various challenges when seeking investment information, opting to rely on personal sources such as friends, close relatives and colleagues. Furthermore, the investors appeared not to be aware of personal information sources such as investment advisors, information brokers, roundtables and one-on-one discussions. The study recommended intensive investor education as well as a comparative investigation of information seeking behaviour amongst other members of BEE investment schemes in South Africa. / Bohlokwa bja go nyaka tshedimošo ya peeletšo bo ka se gatelelwe go fetišiša. Go nyaka tshedimošo ya go thekga tšeo ya sephetho ke karolo ye bohlokwa ya kgwebo ye nngwe le ye nngwe ya peeletšo ye a atlegilego. Tshekatsheko ya dingwalo e utolotše gore babeeletši ba go ba le tsebo ba šomiša ka tshwanelo dikutullo tša tšhupamatlotlo le tshedimošo ye e sego ya go tsenya letseno, go bopa gagolo ditetelo tše itšeng tša letseno. Ka go le lengwe, tlhokego ya tshedimošo ya peeletšo ye e nepagetšego e dira gore go be boima go babeeletši go tšea sephetho sa gore ke neng mo ba rekago, swarelelago goba go rekiša peeletšo ya bona. Nyakišišo ye e nyakišišitše dinyakwa tša tshedimošo le mokgwa wa go nyaka tshedimošo ya babeeletši ba bathobaso ka gare ga sekema sa MTN Asonge ka seleteng sa Capricorn sa Profentshe ya Limpopo. Nyakišišo e lekile go hwetša kwešišo ya dinyakwa tša tshedimošo ya babeeletši le ka fao ba nyakang tshedimošo ya go thekga diphetho tša peeletšo ya bona. Go fihla mo, mokgwa wa khwalithethifi wa nyakišišo wa diponagalo o latetšwe. Go dira sampole ya koketšo ya nepo go šomišitšwe go dira sampole ya bakgathatema ba nyakišišo bao go boledišanwego nabo. Dipoledišano le batho ka o tee ka o tee tša dipotšišo tše di bulegilego di didirilwe ka babeeletši ba selela, go kgoboketša datha yeo morago e sekasekilwego ka tekanyetšo. Mehuta ye meraro ya methopo ya tshedimošo yeo e hlaotšwego bjalo ka ya motheo tšeong ya diphetho tša peeletšo e akaretša ya motho ka noši, onelaene le ya go gatišwa. Dikutullo di laeditše gore le ge bontši bja babeeletši ba MTN Asonge ba be ba lemoga mehuta ya go fapana yeo tshedimošo ya peeletšo e hwetšegago ka yona, ga se ba šomiše mekgwa ya sebjalebjale ya go hwetša le go lota tshedimošo ya ilektroniki, go swana le go dira diphuruphutšo tša inthanete tša onelaene go fihlelela tshedimošo ye e phatlaladitšwego diweposaeteng tša dikgwebo. Bakgathatema ba itemogetše ditlhohlo tša go fapana ge ba nyaka tshedimošo ya peeletšo, ba kgetha go tshepha methopo ya bona ka noši go swana le bagwera, maloko a kgauswi le bašomišane. Gape, babeeletši ba bonagetše ba sa lemoge methopo ya tshedimošo ya batho ka noši go swana le baeletši ba peeletšo, dientšente tša tshedimošo, dikopano le dipoledišano tša batho ka o tee ka o tee. Nyakišišo e šišintše thuto ya babeeletši ye e tseneletšego, le nyakišišo ya papetšo ka go mokgwa wa go nyaka tshedimošo magareng a maloko a mangwe a dikema tša peeletšo tša BEE ka Afrika Borwa. / Nkoka wa ku lava vuxokoxoko bya vuvekisi wu nga ka wu nga tsongahatiwi. Ku lavana na vuxokoxoko bya ku seketela ku endliwa ka swiboho hi vuvekisi i xiyenge xa nkoka swinene eka bindzu ra vuvekisi rin'wana na rin'wana ro humelela. Ku hlayiwa ka matsalwa swi kombe leswo vavekisi lava va nga na vutivi va tirhisa ngopfu ku paluxiwa ka vutivi hi swa malawulelo ya swa timali na vutivi lebyi byi nga vuyeseriku, ku endla leswo ku languteriwa vuvuyerisi byo kotlana swinene. Loko swi pimanisiwa, ku pfumaleka ka vutivi bya vuvekisi swi endla leswo swi nonon'hwa eka vavekisi ku endla swiboho loko va xava, va khoma kumbe ku xavisa vuvekisi bya vona. Dyondzo leyi yi endle vulavisisi hi swilaveko swa vutivi, na matikhomelo yo lava vutivi bya vavekisi va vantima eka xikimu xa MTN Asonge eka distriki ya le Capricorn eka xifundzhankulu xa Limpopo. Vulavisisi lebyi byi na xikongomelo xa ku kuma ku twisisa hi swilaveko swa vutivi eka vavekisi na leswo xana va byi lavisa ku yini vutivi ku seketela swiboho swa vona swa vuvekisi. Mayelana na leswi, ku landzeleriwe fambiselo ra ndzavisiso wa qualitative phenemenological. Ku tirhisiwe sampuli ya fambiselo ra purposeful snowball sampling ku kuma sampuli ya ndzavisiso hi vateka xiavo lava ku nga endliwa mabulu ya interview na vona. Ku endliwe ti-interview na vanhu hi wun'we wun'we leri vitaniwaka semi-structured interview, leswi nga endliwa na vavekisi va ntsevu, ku hlengeleta data, leyi endzhaku ka swona yi nga xopaxopiwa hi tinhlokomhaka to karhi. Minxaka minharhu ya swihlovo swa vutivi swi ve swi voniwa tani hi swa nkoka eka ku endla swiboho hi vuvekisi, ku nga leswi katsaka munhu xiviri, ku kuma vutivi eka inthanete (online) na leswi printiweke. Vuyelo lebyi kumiweke byi kombise leswo hambi loko vunyingi bya vavekisi va MTN Asonge a va twisisa hi tifomete to hambana laha ku kumekaku kona vuviti bya vuvekisi, vavekisi a va tirhisangi vutivi bya elektroniki lebyi hlayisiweke na maqhinga yo byi humesa vutivi bya kona, yo fana na ku secha eka online hi inthanete ku fikelela vutivi lebyi paluxiweke eka ti-website ta khampani. Lava nga hlamula swivutiso va ve na mintlhontlho yo hambana-hambana loko va lava vutivi bya vuvekisi, leswi nga endla leswo va tshembela eka vutivi bya vanhu xiviri, byo fana no byi kuma eka vanghana, va ndyangu na maxaka na vatirhikulobye. Ku ya emahlweni, vavekisi va kombisa ku kala ku twisisa hi swihlovo swa vuviti swo fana na vatsundzuxi hi swa vuvekisi, tibrokhara ta vutivi bya vuvekisi, tinhlengeletano ta vanhu to tsundzuxa na mabulu yo khoma na munhu hi wun'we wun'we. Dyondzo leyi ya ndzavisiso yi bumabumela leswo ku endliwa dyondzo ya vuvekisi, na tindlela to lava vutivi hi ku pimapimanisa eka swikimu swa BEE swa vuvekisi eAfrika Dzonga. / Information Science / M. Inf.

Thesis (MComm (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of almost all firms should be to maximise the wealth of shareholders. To achieve this goal, firms should use an optimal combination of debt and equity, which will consequently result in the lowest weighted average cost of capital. Firms therefore need to determine their target capital structure. This will require firms to be aware of the various factors that can influence their decision-making regarding capital structure. The effects of firm characteristics and economic factors on capital structures have been researched in many countries. Various South African studies have been conducted on this topic; however, limited research was found where both the firm characteristics and economic factors were included in the same study. The majority of South African studies furthermore either focused on a specific industry on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange Limited (JSE) or their focus was predominantly on the theory of capital structure applied by South African firms. Most of the studies were also conducted for the period prior to the demise of apartheid in 1994. Six firm characteristics (profitability, asset structure, liquidity, business risk, growth and size) and three economic factors (interest rate, inflation and economic growth) were identified for this study. The primary objective was to determine the effect of firm characteristics and economic factors on the capital structure of South African listed industrial firms. External databases were used to obtain the data needed for statistical analysis. McGregor BFA (2008) was used to obtain the data required to calculate the measures for the firm characteristics. This database contains annual standardised financial statements for listed and delisted South African firms. INET-Bridge (2005), Statistica South Africa (2006) and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) website were used to obtain data for the economic factors. The study was conducted for a period of 14 years, from 1995 to 2008. Focusing only on those firms that are listed at the end of the selected period would have exposed the study to a survivorship bias. The census for this study, therefore, included all firms listed on the industrial sector of the JSE, as well as those firms that delisted during the selected period. Firms had to provide financial data for at least five years in order to be included in this study. This requirement was incorporated since the data set contains cross-sectional and time-series dimensions. The final census included a total of 280 firms (170 listed firms and 110 delisted firms), providing 2 684 complete observations for the firm characteristics and 14 complete observations for the economic factors. The results from this study indicated that the growth of firms and the interest rate may be the most important firm characteristic and economic factor, respectively, to consider in financing decisions. The study furthermore indicated that differences exist between the results obtained for book value leverage and those obtained for market value leverage. An important observation is that the results are stronger when the performance of the variables in the preceding year is included. Not only are the R² values higher, but the independent variables also reported to be more significant when one-year lag variables are included. This may indicate that capital structure takes time to adjust. Differences between listed firms and delisted firms are also evident from the results. Lastly, it appears that the firms included in the study overall, lean more towards the pecking order theory than towards the trade-off theory. Based on these results, it appears that firm characteristics and economic factors do have an effect on capital structures of listed industrial firms in South Africa. Firms should, therefore, take these factors into consideration when making their optimal capital structure decisions. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit behoort die doelwit van byna alle firmas te wees om die welvaart van aandeelhouers maksimaal te verhoog. Om hierdie doelwit te bereik, moet firmas 'n optimale kombinasie van geleende kapitaal en ekwiteit gebruik, wat gevolglik sal lei tot die laagste geweegde gemiddelde koste van kapitaal. Firmas moet dus hulle beoogde kapitaalstruktuur bepaal. Dit sal van firmas vereis word om bewus te wees van die verskillende faktore wat 'n invloed op hul kapitaalstruktuur-besluite kan hê. Die uitwerking van 'n firma se eienskappe en ekonomiese faktore op kapitaalstruktuur is al in baie lande nagevors. Verskeie Suid-Afrikaanse studies is in dié verband gedoen, maar daar is beperkte navorsing waar beide firma eienskappe en ekonomiese faktore in dieselfde studie ingesluit is. Die meerderheid Suid- Afrikaanse studies het gefokus op 'n spesifieke nywerheid op die Johannesburg Sekuriteite-beurs Beperk (JSE) of die hooffokus was op die teorie van kapitaalstruktuur soos deur Suid-Afrikaanse firmas toegepas. Die meeste van die studies is ook gedoen vir die tydperk voor die afskaffing van apartheid in 1994. Ses eienskappe van firmas (winsgewendheid, batestruktuur, likiditeit, sakerisiko, groei en grootte) en drie ekonomiese faktore (rentekoers, inflasie en ekonomiese groei) is vir die studie geïdentifiseer. Die primêre doelwit was om die uitwerking van firmas se eienskappe en ekonomiese faktore op kapitaalstrukture van genoteerde nywerheidsfirmas in Suid-Afrika te bepaal. Eksterne databasisse is gebruik om die data wat vir statistiese ontleding nodig was, te bekom. McGregor BFA (2008) is gebruik om die nodige data vir die berekening van die maatstawwe vir die firma se eienskappe te bekom. Hierdie databasis bevat jaarlikse, gestandaardiseerde finansiële state vir genoteerde en gedenoteerde Suid- Afrikaanse firmas. INET-Bridge (2005), Statistica South Africa (2006) en die Suid- Afrikaanse Reserwebank (SARB) se webtuiste is gebruik om die data vir die ekonomiese faktore te bekom. Die studie is uitgevoer vir 'n tydperk van 14 jaar, van 1995 tot 2008. Deur slegs op daardie firmas wat aan die einde van die navorsingstydperk genoteer was, te fokus sou die studie aan 'n oorlewingsydigheid blootstel. Die sensus vir die studie het, dus, genoteerde firmas op die nywerheidsektor van die JSE asook daardie firmas wat gedurende die geselekteerde tydperk gedenoteer is, ingesluit. Firmas moes finansiële data vir ten minste vyf jaar verskaf om by die studie ingesluit te word. Hierdie vereiste is gestel aangesien die datastel beide deursnee- en tydreeksdimensies bevat het. Die finale sensus het 'n totaal van 280 firmas (170 genoteerde firmas en 110 gedenoteerde firmas) ingesluit, waaruit 2 684 volledige waarnemings vir die firma se eienskappe en 14 volledige waarnemings vir die ekonomiese faktore gemaak kon word. Die resultate van hierdie studie dui moontlik daarop dat die groei van firmas en die rentekoers, onderskeidelik die belangrikste eienskap van 'n firma en ekonomiese faktor is om te oorweeg by finansieringsbesluite. Die studie dui verder daarop dat die resultate, onderskeidelik verkry vir boekwaarde-hefboomwerking en markwaardehefboomwerking, verskil. 'n Belangrike opmerking is dat die resultate sterker is wanneer die prestasie van die veranderlikes in die voorafgaande jaar ingesluit word. Nie alleen is die R²-waardes hoër nie, maar die onafhanklike veranderlikes blyk ook om meer beduidend te wees wanneer een-jaar-vertraagde veranderlikes ingesluit word. Verskille tussen genoteerde firmas en gedenoteerde firmas is ook duidelik uit die resultate van die studie. Laastens wil dit blyk dat die firmas in die studie oor die algemeen meer leun na die pikorde-teorie ("pecking order theory") as na die kompromis-teorie ("trade-off theory"). Op grond van hierdie resultate wil dit voorkom asof 'n firma se eienskappe en die ekonomiese faktore wel 'n uitwerking het op die kapitaalstrukture van genoteerde nywerheidsfirmas in Suid-Afrika. Firmas moet dus hierdie faktore in ag neem wanneer hulle besluite neem rakende hul besluite oor optimale kapitaalstruktuur.

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Investment styles and more particularly the relative outperformance of certain styles under differing market conditions have been widely researched. Furthermore, investment professionals are constantly on the lookout for factors that could possibly be indicative of the subsequent outperformance of certain investment styles. With the value-growth phenomenon at the centre of this debate, there is an attempt in this study to shed some light on this anomaly from a purely South African perspective. Using monthly data for the period 1991 to 2011, and calculating price-to-book value (P/B) ratios for all the stocks included in the FTSE/JSE All-Share Index, the methodology employed by The Brandes Institute (2009A), based on work of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994), will be utilised in this study in order to determine whether the relative outperformance of value stocks over growth stocks can be anticipated in advance. Stocks were ranked monthly on the basis of their relative P/B ratios and subsequently four new portfolios were created each month, with the growth portfolio consisting of the highest 25% P/B ratio stocks and the value portfolio capturing the lowest 25% P/B ratio stocks. After portfolio creation, quartile-by-quartile performance was tracked over the following five years. The relative performance of the value versus growth portfolio was compared to the valuation difference multiple, calculated as the median P/B ratio of the growth portfolio divided by the median P/B ratio of the value portfolio, to determine if a relationship existed between valuation disparities and the subsequent relative performance of value and growth stocks. The all-cap (FTSE/JSE All-Share Index) segment was further divided into large-cap (FTSE/JSE Top-40 Index), mid-cap (FTSE/JSE Mid-cap Index) and small-cap (FTSE/JSE Small-cap Index) segments in order to determine if a consistent relationship could be identified within different market capitalisation sectors of the market. A significant relationship was found between the valuation difference multiple and subsequent performance of value and growth stocks in all segments of the JSE Mainboard. Historically, the higher the valuation difference multiple, the higher the subsequent outperformance of value stocks over the subsequent five-year period, as compared to growth stocks. This was found to be significant within the FTSE/JSE All-Share Index, the FTS/JSE Top-40 Index, the FTSE/JSE Mid-Cap Index and the FTSE/JSE Small-Cap Index. An exception to the above findings was the post-2002 period within the FTSE/JSE Top-40 Index. During this period it was not possible to identify a relationship between the valuation difference multiple and subsequent value stock outperformance. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Verskillende beleggingstyle en meer spesifiek, die relatiewe uitprestering van sekere style onder verskillende mark omstandighede, is wyd nagevors oor die afgelope paar dekades. Professionele beleggers is ook gedurig op die uitkyk vir moontlike faktore wat die uitprestering van sekere beleggingstyle vooraf kan aandui. Met die waarde-groei verskynsel sentraal in hierdie debat, is die doelwit in hierdie studie om die waarde-groei verskynsel te ondersoek vanuit 'n eg Suid-Afrikaanse mark perspektief. Deur maandelikse data vir die periode 1991 tot 2011 te gebruik en daaropvolgende prys-tot-boekwaarde (P/B) verhoudings te bereken vir al die aandele wat deel was van die FTSE/JSE Alle-Aandele Indeks, sal daar in hierdie studie die metodologie van 'The Brandes Institute' (2009A) in die Verenigde State van Amerika, gebaseer op die werk van Lakonsihok, Shleifer en Vishny (1994), toegepas word om te probeer bepaal of die relatiewe uitprestering van waarde aandele oor groei aandele vooraf voorspel kan word. Aandele is maandeliks ingedeel op die basis van hul onderskeie P/B verhoudings. Deur hierdie proses is daar maandeliks vier nuwe portefeuljes geskep, met die groei portefeulje wat die hoogste 25% van P/B verhouding aandele bevat het en die waarde portefeulje wat die laagste 25% van P/B verhouding aandele verteenwoordig. Prestasie beoordeling van die nuut geskepde portefeuljes was die volgende stap in die navorsingsproses waar kwartiel-tot-kwartiel prestasie beoordeling oor die daaropvolgende vyf-jaar periode na portefeulje ontstaan, plaasgevind het. Die relatiewe prestasie van die waarde en groei portefeuljes is vergelyk met die waardasie pariteit maatstaf, wat bereken is as die mediaan P/B verhouding van die groei portefeulje gedeel deur die mediaan P/B verhouding van die waarde portefeulje. Hierdie vergelyking is gebruik om te bepaal of 'n verhouding tussen die onderskeie waardasies van groei en waarde aandele en daaropvolgende prestasie bestaan. Die alle aandele segment is verder ook opgedeel in drie onderskeie indekse om te bepaal of 'n verwantskap binne al die verskillende markkapitalisasie sektore bestaan. Die grootste markkapitalisasie aandele is verteenwording deur die FTSE/JSE Top-40 Indeks; die medium markkapitalisasie aandele deur die FTSE/JSE Mid-Cap Indeks; en die kleinste markkapitalisasie aandele wat deel vorm van die FTSE/JSE Alle-Aandele Indeks is verteenwoording deur die FTSE/JSE Small-Cap Indeks. 'n Beduidende verwantskap is gevind tussen die waardasie pariteit maatstaf en daaropvolgende vyf-jaar prestasie van waarde en groei aandele. Histories hoe hoër die waardasie pariteit maatstaf, hoe groter die relatiewe uitprestering van waarde aandele oor die daaropvolgende vyf-jaar periode. Hierdie verskynsel is beduidend gevind vanuit 'n FTSE/JSE All-Share Indeks, FTSE/JSE Top-40 Indeks, FTSE/JSE Mid-Cap Indeks en FTSE/JSE Small-Cap Indeks perspektief. 'n Uitsondering was die FTSE/JSE Top-40 Indeks vir die periode na 2002, waar dit nie moontlik was om 'n beduidende verwantskap te identifiseer nie.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Venture capital is a major source of funding for the entrepreneurial community and usually focuses on the early stage, more risk orientated business endeavours. This study explores and identifies the investment criteria used by South African venture capitalists in their venture screening and evaluation process and compares these criteria with the results obtained in similar studies abroad. By identifying the criteria that are deemed as important, venture capitalists can enhance their decision-making process and entrepreneurs can adjust their preparation for venture capital application to maximise their success rate. By alerting entrepreneurs of these criteria, some potentially flawed proposals can be corrected beforehand, hence enhancing the venture capital process for both the venture capitalist and the entrepreneur. By making use of a questionnaire, data was gathered from a population of 16 identified South African venture capitalists, of which 75% replied. The most important criteria was identified by evaluating the mean ratings assigned to them and was found to be, the entrepreneurs honesty and integrity, a good expected market acceptance and a high IRR. The data was further analysed using the Friedman two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) by ranks test, the Sign test and factor analysis. It was found that the South African venture capitalists, just like their overseas counterparts, rate the entrepreneur and management team, as the most important category of criteria when evaluating new projects for investment. In addition, two lists of factors were identified by using factor analysis to reduce the criteria obtained from the questionnaire. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Waagkapitaal is een van die belangrikste bronne van befondsing waarvan entrepreneurs gebruik kan maak. Dit fokus hoofsaaklik op besighede in 'n vroeë besigheid lewensiklus, waar hoër risiko aan die orde van die dag is. Hierdie studie identifiseer en analiseer die beleggings maatstawwe wat gebruik word vir waagkapitaal belegging besluitneming in Suid-Afrika en vergelyk die resultate met soortgelyke studies wat reeds in die buiteland uitgevoer is. Die besluitnemingsproses vir die waagkapitalis kan ook vergemaklik word deur die identifisering van die mees belangrikste maatstawwe en terselfdertyd kan entrepreneurs dit ook gebruik vir beter voorbereiding in hul aansoek om waagkapitaal. Deur entrepreneurs se aandag op die belangrike faktore te vestig kan potensiële swak voorleggings vroegtydig gekorrigeer word, wat 'n positiewe bydrae sal lewer tot die beleggingsproses vir beide die waagkapitalis en die entrepreneur. Daar is gebruik gemaak van 'n vraelys wat gestuur is aan 16 Suid-Afrikaanse waagkapitaal beleggers, 75% het die vraelys voltooi. Deur vergelyking van die gemiddelde waardes is vasgestel dat die belangrikste maatstawwe die entrepreneur se eerlikheid en integriteit, goeie verwagte aanvaarding en aanvraag na die produk en 'n hoë “IRR” is, daarna is die data geanaliseer deur middel van die “Friedman two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) by ranks test”, die ”Sign test” en “factor analysis”. Daar is bevind dat die Suid-Afrikaanse waagkapitalis net soos sy oorsese eweknie, die entrepreneur en bestuurspan as die mees belangrikste afdeling van maatstawwe ag wanneer gekyk word na nuwe projekte vir beleggings. Daar is ook twee addisionele lyste van belangrike maatstawwe opgestel deur die aantal faktore te verminder deur faktor analise.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2006. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Omega function is a relatively newly developed performance measure, falling within the class of downside risk measures. This measure does not make any assumptions regarding the return distributions evaluated, but incorporates the actual return distribution in its calculation. The sensitivity of this measure to simulated changes within the class of stable distributions was tested, within the range of parameters that was evident in the South African investment environment. The Omega and Sharpe ratios that were calculated for these distributions were ranked and compared. Even though the rankings were similar, discrepancies did occur. On investigation it was found that these discrepancies were caused by the inability of the Sharpe measure to differentiate between increased volatility caused by higher probability weighted gains (or positive skewness) and losses, as the Sharpe ratio penalises funds for volatility. The simulated tests were extended to various distributions, which have different risk profiles and distribution shapes, and ranked. A higher incidence of ranking differences occurred due to the inability of the Sharpe ratio to differentiate between gains and losses, correctly account for the risk of positively skewed distributions and lastly due to negative Sharpe ratios, caused by the average realised returns being exceeded by the threshold (target) rate, resulting in incorrect rankings. Comparison of rankings based on the Sharpe and Omega measures was performed on the class of general equity unit trusts over a five-year period, which resulted in statistically similar rankings. In extending the evaluation over shorter periods, the ran kings were still statistically similar, even though some differences were noteworthy. As the returns became more variable, the Omega measure captured this variation and risk whilst the Sharpe ratio was unable to, as its formulation is limited to two statistics, thus losing all this additional information. Normally performance evaluation is not initiated with a detailed analysis of the return distributions in order to determine which performance measure is more appropriate. The Omega measure incorporates the distribution into the calculation, which is not the case with the Sharpe measure. Therefore, even if the distributions are normal, the Omega measure gives exacty the same result as the Sharpe measure. However, where return distributions diverge from normality, we can be certain that the Omega measure will correctly incorporate the divergence, whilst it has been shown that in certain instances the Sharpe measure does not. The Omega measure adds another dimension to risk-adjusted performance evaluation and should be incorporated in the evaluation process. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Omega-funksie, wat as 'n afwaartse risikomaatstaf geklassifiseer word, is 'n relatiewe nuut-ontwikkelde prestasiemaatstaf. Hierdie maatstaf maak nie enige aannames ten opsigte van die opbrengsverdelings wat ge-evalueer word nie, maar inkorporeer die werklike opbrengsverdeling in die berekening. Die sensitiwiteit van hierdie maatstaf tot gesimuleerde veranderinge in die klas van stabiele verdelings is getoets, binne die parameters van toepassing in die Suid Afrikaanse beleggingsomgewing. Die Omega- en Sharpe-maatstawe is bereken, georden en vergelyk. Alhoewel die rangordes meestal dieselfde was, het verskille in sommige gevalle voorgekom. Hierdie verskille is veroorsaak deur die onvermoe van die Sharpe-maatstaf om te onderskei tussen verhoogde volatiliteit veroorsaak deur 'n hoer waarskynlikheidsgeweegde wins, of positiewe skeefheid en verliese. Die Sharpe-maatstaf penaliseer alle volatiliteit. Die gesimuleerde toetse is uitgebrei na alternatiewe verdelings wat verskillende risikoprofiele het en is weereens georden. Weereens was die rangordes meestal dieselfde. Die verskille wat plaasgevind het, is veroorsaak deur die onvermoe van die Sharpe-maatstaf om tussen winste en verliese te onderskei, positiewe skeefheid korrek te verdiskonteer en laastens om negatiewe Sharpe-verhoudings in die korrekte rangorde te plaas. 'n Vergelyking van die rangordes van die Sharpe- en Omega-maatstawe is gedoen op die algemene effektetrusts oor 'n tydperk van vyf jaar. Die rangordes in geheel was statisties dieselfde. Hierdie toetse is vervolgens uitgebrei om korter tydperke in te sluit, wat weereens in geheel statisties dieselfde korrelasie getoon het, maar 'n paar individuele portefeuljes se rangordes het heelwat verskil. Soos die opbrengste gevarieer het, kon die Omega-maatstaf hierdie variasies en risiko verdiskonteer terwyl die Sharpe-maatstaf nie in staat was om hierdie risiko te verdiskonteer nie, aangesien sy formulering beperk is tot twee statistieke wat 'n verlies van inligting tot gevolg het. Normaalweg word prestasie-beoordeling nie begin met 'n gedetailleerde analise van die opbrengsverdelings om te bepaal watter prestasie-maatstaf meer toepaslik is nie. Die Omega-maatstaf inkorporeer die verdeling in die berekening, wat nie die geval is met die Sharpe-maatstaf nie. AI is die opbrengsverdelings normaal, gee die Omega-maatstaf dieselfde resultate as die Sharpe-maatstaf. Waar die verdelings egter afwyk van normaal, weet ons dat die Omega-maatstaf die afwykings korrek verdiskonteer, terwyl dit bewys is dat die Sharpe-maatstaf in sekere omstandighede nie die afwykings korrek verdiskonteer nie. Die Omega-maatstaf voeg 'n verdere dimensie by risiko-aangepaste prestasiemeting en behoort dus ingesluit te word in die evauleringsproses.