On the subject of what affect voters¡¦ vote choice, political scientists for a long time emphasize three answers: party identification, candidate orientation, and issue orientation. About issue orientation, Rational Choice Theory assumes that human are rational pursuing maximizing self- interests. When voters are making their vote decisions, they would observe the issues positions of competing parties or candidates, comparing with their own positions, and then vote the party or the candidate who can represent their own positions best. Spatial Theory, from Rational Choice Theory, takes those abstract issue positions into some issue space. Both the issue positions of voters and parties could be presented by some points in the space, and the length and direction between the points can represent the differences between issue positions. There are several different models in Spatial Theory, and different models advocate different ways about how voters use the points in issue space to form their evaluations to competing parties or candidates. In this paper, we take the viewpoints of Spatial Theory to research the issue voting behavior of Taiwanese voters. First, we try to know the spatial distribution of voters¡¦ issue positions. Then we inspect the association between voters¡¦ social back- ground elements and issue position. Finally, we test three models of Spatial Theory, proximity model, directional model, and RM mixed model, to know how Taiwanese voters use issue positions to form their party-evaluation.

This thesis compares two theories of voter behavior in the 2019 European Parliament election (EP election). The second-order national contest theory claims that the European Parliament elections are basically seen as unimportant and are predominantly about national issues. In contrast, the competing Europe matters theory (or EU matters) claims that voters to a significant degree are motivated by European issues. Research on earlier elections has presented evidence strongly in favor of the second-order national contests theory, however, the most recent elections show more ambiguous results. With Europe having gone through a refugee crisis since the last EP election, and with Brexit taking place in the run-up to the election in 2019 making the future of the Union uncertain, there are strong reasons to challenge the second-order theory, and examine if voters did care more about European affairs in the 2019 EP election to substantially make this election about Europe. This thesis will focus on political parties and the predictions the different theories make on the electoral outcome. The study will use a quantitative research design to investigate if changes in voter support for parties in the 2019 EP election compared to the preceding national general election (national election), are the result of national or European issues. The findings suggest that the EP elections are still primarily about national issues and the expectations from the second-order national contest theory can largely explain the outcome of the 2019 EP election. For instance, in the 2019 EP election, the popularity of governing parties in the national arena seems to significantly affect their electoral performance in the EP election. Furthermore, small parties overperform, suggesting voters do not vote strategically and have little interest in the EP election. At the same time party position on European integration only had minor effect on the outcome, which is expected to be substantial if the elections are about Europe. This study shows that it is too early to dismiss the long-held notion of European Parliament elections as being second-order national contests. More research is, however, needed to examine different aspect of the EP election and the different mechanisms at play for a more complete understanding of the nature of the EP elections.

2016年的英國脫歐公投，最終以51.89%比48.11%的差距，決定了英國脫歐的命運。各界紛紛揣測各種可能造成民眾投下脫歐一票的原因，包含個人經濟狀況、政黨認同、受民粹操控、反菁英、對歐洲認同等。本文針對既有研究中尚存在之空缺，聚焦「議題投票取向」對選民投票抉擇的影響，探究脫歐陣營對資訊的扭曲是否對選民的投票抉擇有顯著影響。論文就脫歐派針對國民健保、移民、脫歐後的英國對外經貿、失業率、勞工權益保障與是否能無條件持續享有歐盟單一市場好處這六項議題，透過「二分勝算對數模型」進行分析，從個體層次行為來瞭解資訊扭曲對選民在脫歐公投中投票行為的影響。 研究結果顯示，在移民潮來襲、民眾高喊反全球化與選民不安全感高漲的大環境背景下，脫歐陣營對選民所關心之議題的煽動與對資訊的操控使選民在做出投票抉擇時受到明顯誤導。此外，模型結果亦顯示，選民的個人社經背景與心理態度認知同樣對選民投票行為產生影響。總結而言，本研究透過微觀層次的分析，針對促使選民投下脫歐一票的因素做出深入探討，並以「資訊扭曲」作為重要變數，補充議題投票相關研究之不足。 / In the Brexit referendum held in June 2016, 51.89 per cent of the voter voted Leave and 48.11 per cent voted Remain. The result sealed the fate of the UK as an outsider of the European Union. While the reasons behind voter’s choice to leave the EU remain disputed, individual voter’s socio-economic status, party identification, populism, anti-elite mood, and identity toward European were among the most frequently listed factors. In order to fill the gap that existing researchs has left, this thesis focuses on the significance of “issue voting” in voting behavior. It discusses if the distortion of information by the Leave campaign had a significant impact on people’s voting choice. It uses the “logistic regression model” to analyse six issues brought about by the Leave campaign. They include the NHS, immigration, trading arrangements with other nations, unemployment, working conditions for British workers, and unconditional maintaining of all the benefits from the EU. By focusing on the individual level, I try to investigate how the distortion of information has impacted upon people’s voting behavior in the Brexit referendum. The study shows that against the background of an increased flow of immigrants and heightened anti-globalization mood, voters had a strong sense of insecurity. Under such circumstances, the Leave campaign exploited the opportunity to incite voters on issues they cared most about, manipulated information during the demagogic campaign, and misled people on their voting decision. In addition, the model also demonstrates that voters’ socioeconomic status and mental cognizance have the same effect on people’s voting behavior. In the nutshell, this thesis uses micro-level analysis to investigate voter behavior in the Brexit referendum. It brings in “information distortion” as a key variable in explaining voter behavior, a variable largely neglected in the existing literature on issue voting.

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