Práce je rozdělena na tři části. V teoretické části práce jsou přiblíženy významné krize za posledních několik set let, typologie krizí, selhání finančních trhů dle P. Krugmana, generační modely, cenové bubliny, souvislost kapitálových toků a dluhového problému, nákaza, prevence před krizemi a jejich management. V druhé části jsou v rámci popisu současného stavu bádání v oblasti predikce finančních krizí citovány desítky studií. Jejich výsledky jsou následně porovnány. Pozornost je také věnována definici finanční krize. Ve třetí části je provedena aplikace metody Latent Semantic Indexing (LSI) na úlohu predikce finančních krizí. Testovanou hypotézou je předpoklad, že akciové trhy dokáží během jednoho čtvrtletí (64 pozorování akciového trhu) reflektovat budoucí vývoj v měnové politice (během dalších 128 pozorování). Tato hypotéza byla na vzorku 39 zemí, intervalu let 1985 - 2007 a interpretace vývoje úrokových sazeb a měnového kurzu domácí měny vůči USD v disertační práci potvrzena. Uvedená metoda LSI a její studovaná aplikace na akciovém trhu, přestože dokázala nalézt několik krizí i přesně na den, je vhodná spíše pro specifikaci a analýzu křehkých období, kdy ke krizi může dojít, než přímo k předpovídání krizí.

The goal of thesis is to clarify the nature of the exchange rate and interest rate risk and the possibility to describe the management of these risks. It represents the individual tools used to ensure the exchange rate and interest rate risk and the specific examples explaining the principle of their functioning. The thesis is divided into three parts - the exchange rate hedging, interest rate hedging and risk management, or a summary of each procedure, a brief guide for managers of companies involved in the risk of fluctuations in exchange rates or interest rates touching. Case studies of specific examples shows the possibilities of treatment of exchange rate risk - the exporter trading currency pair EUR / CZK.

The thesis deals with the development and status of global imbalances in contemporary global economy in connection with changes in the U.S. dollar exchange rate. From this point of view, the paper firstly focuses on the current diversification of the world economy to clarify the position of the U.S. monetary system in the sphere of global imbalances. Secondly, it concentrates on the long-term trends in the U.S. dollar exchange rate as the world's main currency. Finally, the thesis focuses on potential changes in the economic policy of the main actors of global imbalances and presents possible solution to these imbalances in the world economy.

The thesis analyses the external economic balance of the Czech Republic from 2000 till 2011 based on the balance of payments, investment positions and the external debt statistics. in conjunction with the exchange rate development. The main evaluation indicators used in the thesis are the current account balance, the basic balance and external debt. The thesis explains the causes of the development of these indicators and their consequences, considers the trend and then assess whether we can speak about a sustainable form of the external economic balance in the case of the Czech Republic.

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal / Pour respecter les droits d'auteur, la version électronique de cette thèse ou ce mémoire a été dépouillée, le cas échéant, de ses documents visuels et audio-visuels. La version intégrale de la thèse ou du mémoire a été déposée au Service de la gestion des documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.

This thesis deals with the relationship of exchange rate theory regarding the currency pair EUR / USD. The theoretical part defines the fundamental issue of exchange rates, exchange-rate regimes and the foreign exchange market, where the exchange rates are made. The crucial part of the theory is devoted to economic theories causing currency movements. In conclusion of the theoretical part attention is also given to econometric methods and statistics time series analysis. The analytical part of the thesis examines the short and long term relationships of purchasing power parity, the theory of parity of interest rates and monetary approach to the exchange rate for the currency pair EUR / USD. A regression analysis is used for investigating short-term relationships, and is applied to the relative changes in the value of the currency pair EUR / USD and the changes in the relative values of the theory of exchange rate determination. The long-term equilibrium relationship is analyzed by using a cointegration analysis, specifically the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests. The estimated results are evaluated and discussed in the final part of the thesis.

The first part of this dissertation, entitled Exchange Rate Exposure Management, addressed the question whether there has been a relationship between changes in exchange rate volatility and financial results of Czech enterprises and therefore foreign exchange exposure management is justified. For this purpose, the empirical data of revenues and exports and imports in CZ-NACE sections were used. Statistically significant results were demonstrated in the Section C - Manufacturing, where it was confirmed that profitability of sales declines with increasing volatility of the exchange rate. The nominal exchange rate CZK/EUR was taken into consideration, while a recent thesis (Klecka, 2016) showed that the use of another type of the exchange rate does not provide a statistically significant difference. In the second part a simple model called Estart was created in order to quantify the maximum impact of unexpected exchange rate changes in the profitability of a company and thus in order to start with the management of the exchange rate exposure. The formula for calculating exchange rate exposure is simple and requires only a few inputs as company total revenues, total expenses, the percentage of revenues in foreign currency and the percentage of expenditure in foreign currency. In order to quantify the maximum impact recommended percentage variations dependent on the time horizon were determined from the historical data of the exchange rate CZK/EUR. The company then receives initial information about the maximum impact of unexpected exchange rate change on their profitability and hence for example the potential maximum amount that makes sense to invest in exchange rate hedging. The model is also suitable for calculating the maximum impact for the specific payables and receivables. The Model Estart is for its simplicity usable particularly in small and medium-sized enterprises, which currently begin to address the question of the impact of exchange rate change on their profitability for example because of announcements of Czech National Bank concerning the end of the intervention that has been depreciating domestic currency since 2013 and also the complicated situation in the Eurozone. The next necessary step is to use more sophisticated methods in accordance with the principles of foreign exchange rate exposure management in order to quantify the impact of unexpected changes in the exchange rate on the profitability, respectively on the value of the company, mainly because of the management of the operational exposure, which is crucial and which is not addressed by this simple model.

This thesis looks at social rehabilitation courses designed for visually impaired people. Through social rehabilitation, people learn to do various activities which help them achieve independence, self-sufficiency and independence. The study aims to map out the experience of those who have completed a social rehabilitation course and whether it has helped them achieve a more independent life. It will also ascertain the reasons which led them to undertake the course and compare the opinions of clients with the opinions of those who run the courses. To begin with, the theoretical section of the study will describe visual perception, visual impairments and their sensory compensation. It further defines social rehabilitation and describes specific social rehabilitation courses. Trained instructors lead these courses and are in intensive contact with their clients. As such, a related subchapter describes the relations between instructors and clients. Also looked at is communication with people with visual impairments, which is highly specific in many cases. The practical section utilises a qualitative survey based on semi-structured interviews. The research survey comprises two parts, and I focus on the opinions of those who have completed the course in the first part, having spoken to 6 such people, while the second part of the investigation was undertaken amongst the course instructors (teachers). The interviews were undertaken at two organisations providing services to visually impaired people. The research results suggest that completing social rehabilitation courses has helped people increase their independence and thus improve their quality of life. The courses met the expectations of clients. The opinions of clients and instructors concurred to a large extent, with everyone seeing the courses as of great benefit. The deciding factors for beginning the courses were two fundamental needs the need for independent movement and the need to acquire new information, thus to learn something new. The research results can serve anyone who wishes to find out more about the life of people with visual impairments. They will also find out about special courses with which people with visual impairments can look after themselves and their family relatively independently.

The topic of my thesis is {\clqq}International operations of domestic producer - tax, accounting and law connections". The aim of this work is to analyze business operation of domestic producer with foreign businessmen. It is necessary to use foreign currency and their reduction of money to Czech currency in accounting. Point of delivery is connected with international operations, because it delimits object of the Value Added Tax. Trade between businessmen has to be legally regulated by sale of goods. It determines discretions and duties of both parties. Delivery terms are important terms of a contract in international trade. It appoints duties for seller and buyer at supply and receiving of goods. The theoretical part summarizes knowledge, which concerns with the characteristics of international world, whiteness of accounting, using foreign currency, determining point of delivery and substantiality of delivery terms INCOTERMS 2000. In the practical part I deal with transfer guides for international trade, which the company requests from me. After I compare taxation of chosen operations with the Czech rules of accounting. I use exchange rates. I strike a balance and precede positives for the particular company.

This thesis examines change of classroom climate in lower secondary school. In the theoretical part, issues of classroom climate, experiential pedagogy, adaptation courses and form teacher lessons are described from the perspective of different authors. The thesis introduces basic approaches for diagnosing classroom climate. It also gives instructions for management of form teacher lessons. B-3 questionnaire determines the current classroom climate and subsequent effects of the adaptation course among the respondents. Form teacher lessons are reported in this thesis, whose effect is also measured by the B-3 questionnaire in a longer period of the adaptation course. The results of the questionnaire investigation point to the need for regular form teacher lessons, in which the formation of a friendly climate in the classroom is realized.