Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: According to Vestergaard and Wade (2012:486), “No financial or bank crisis has ever occurred from something ex-ante perceived as risky”. On the contrary – according to Per Kurowski (2010 in Vestergaard & Wade 2012:486) “they have all resulted, no exceptions, from excessive lending or investment in something perceived as not risky”. BASEL III, also known as the Third BASEL Accord, was developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) as a comprehensive set of measures to strengthen regulation and risk management and, in doing so, to reform the way in which the banking sector operated in the past (International regulatory framework for banks (Basel III), 2014). According to Zerbst (2013), Basel III was introduced as a direct result of the financial crisis that hit the United States and spread throughout the world in 2008. After the financial crisis, the financial world lost confidence in banks in general. This made the regulators wary and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCSB) was formed. They were tasked to investigate how existing regulations could be revised to safeguard banks from landing in a similar situation. Currently, South African banks meet the minimum regulatory capital requirements introduced by Basel III. Capitec and African Bank Investments Limited (ABIL) are two prominent banks in the South African unsecured lending market. These two banks, although they seem alike, do not operate in the same way. They have different funding bases. Furthermore, unlike ABIL, Capitec does not have a furniture and appliance component (African Bank, 2014). This report aims to understand how Capitec and ABIL’s risk models measure up to what Basel III proposes banks use. The analysis in this research report will enable the reader to understand the capital structure of Capitec Ltd and ABIL better. This approach will allow for a better estimation of capital structure within the unsecured banking industry. This research report can further serve as an example of capital risk analysis for other bank executives in South Africa. A further benefit for this research is that it can be used as a case study for lecturers teaching corporate finance at academic institutions.

Corporate social responsibility, CSR väcker intresse bland företag och även många forskare har uppmärksammat begreppet på senare tid. Det finns banker som har börjat ta hänsyn till CSR i låneprocessen. Däremot är den forskning som finns om hur ett företags arbete med CSR beaktas i låneprocessen begränsad, vilket gör det svårt att skapa en förståelse för området. För att kunna skapa en bättre förståelse har det resulterat i frågeställningen: Hur och varför beaktar banker företagens arbete med CSR vid kreditgivning? För att besvara frågeställningen har CSR definierats med sju dimensioner vilka har varit utgångspunkterna för den teoretiska referensramen, samt för den kvalitativa studien. Dimensionerna är miljön, samhället, företagets relation till de anställda, styrelse, mänskliga rättigheter, produkt och mångfald. Den kvalitativa studien som genomfördes gjordes genom tio intervjuer med kreditgivare på olika banker. De slutsatser som framkommer utifrån den genomförda studien är att en del av dimensionerna av CSR ingår i låneprocessen. I det andra steget av låneprocessen, vilket benämns kreditbedömningen ingår dimensionen miljö som en egen stående bedömningspunkt. Produkt, styrelse och företagets relation till de anställda går att beakta tillsammans med andra stående bedömningspunkter. Mänskliga rättigheter beaktas om kreditgivaren upptäcker varningssignalen och då anser att dimensionen bör kontrolleras för att säkerställa krediten. Studien visar att samhället och mångfald inte ingår i låne-processen, utan endast kan ge positiva indikationer om företaget. Kreditgivare väljer att beakta de olika dimensionerna inom CSR för att bedöma de risker som kan uppstå i en kredit. Riskerna bedöms för att kunna fastställa företagets återbetalningsförmåga, vilket gör att kreditgivare kan undvika en kreditförlust.

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The aim of this PhD project is to design profit scorecards for a revolving credit using alternative measures of profit that have not been considered in previous research. The data set consists of customers from a lending institution that grants credit to those that are usually financially excluded due to the lack of previous credit records. The study presents for the first time a relative profit measure (i.e.: returns) for scoring purposes and compares results with those obtained from usual monetary profit scores both in cumulative and average terms. Such relative measure can be interpreted as the productivity per customer in generating cash flows per monetary unit invested in receivables. Alternatively, it is the coverage against default if the lender discontinues operations at time t. At an exploratory level, results show that granting credit to financially excluded customers is a profitable business. Moreover, defaulters are not necessarily unprofitable; in average the profits generated by profitable defaulters exceed the losses generated by certain non-defaulters. Therefore, it makes sense to design profit (return) scorecards. It is shown through different methods that it makes a difference to use alternative profit measures for scoring purposes. At a customer level, using either profits or returns alters the chances of being accepted for credit. At a portfolio level, in the long term, productivity (coverage against default) is traded off if profits are used instead of returns. Additionally, using cumulative or average measures implies a trade off between the scope of the credit programme and customer productivity (coverage against default). The study also contributes to the ongoing debate of using direct and indirect prediction methods to produce not only profit but also return scorecards. Direct scores were obtained from borrower attributes, whilst indirect scores were predicted using the estimated probabilities of default and repurchase; OLS was used in both cases. Direct models outperformed indirect models. Results show that it is possible to identify customers that are profitable both in monetary and relative terms. The best performing indirect model used the probabilities of default at t=12 months and of repurchase in t=12, 30 months as predictors. This agrees with banking practices and confirms the significance of the long term perspective for revolving credit. Return scores would be preferred under more conservative standpoints towards default because of unstable conditions and if the aim is to penetrate relatively unknown segments. Further ethical considerations justify their use in an inclusive lending context. Qualitative data was used to contextualise results from quantitative models, where appropriate. This is particularly important in the microlending industry, where analysts’ market knowledge is important to complement results from scorecards for credit granting purposes. Finally, this is the first study that formally defines time-to-profit and uses it for scoring purposes. Such event occurs when the cumulative return exceeds one. It is the point in time when customers are exceedingly productive or alternatively when they are completely covered against default, regardless of future payments. A generic time-to-profit application scorecard was obtained by applying the discrete version of Cox model to borrowers’ attributes. Compared with OLS results, portfolio coverage against default was improved. A set of segmented models predicted time-to-profit for different loan durations. Results show that loan duration has a major effect on time-to-profit. Furthermore, inclusive lending programmes can generate internal funds to foster their growth. This provides useful insight for investment planning objectives in inclusive lending programmes such as the one under analysis.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / Institutions within the Farm Credit System (FCS) make risk-based lending decisions. As a primary lender to agriculture, these decisions are based on qualitative and quantitative procedures based on guidelines created for the purpose of measuring financial risk or the future probability that a loan will be in default of full repayment. As the risk increases, the cost to the FCS institution also increases to support a higher risk, higher probability of delinquency. Concentration risk, intrinsic risk, transaction risk, repayment risk, reputation risk are just a few examples of risk-based lending decisions. Under regulatory direction, FCS institutions have a charter to provide financing to agriculture’s food and fiber industries. The forest products industry is a large commodity borrower of risk-based financing within the FCS, specifically in the Pacific Northwest. Among other commodities, Northwest Farm Credit Services (Northwest FCS) supports the forest products industry through financial lending products. A majority of agricultural commodities reflect cycles of robust earnings and weak profits based on macro- and micro-economic indicators. The United States forest products industry had a period of strong earnings based primarily on the housing bubble between 2002-2007. With the U.S. economic recession beginning in 2008, the forest products industry also waned from 2008-2012. This impact resulted in financial stress for many forest product companies, both nationally and internationally. Due to the downturn in the forest products industry, regulators were quick to position the industry with high risk-based assumptions, thus putting pressure to Northwest FCS’ risk-guidelines in supporting that historical analysis accurately depicted industry risk. The purpose of this thesis is threefold: to study the correlation between different major commodity groups to better understand the value of a commodity concentration limit as a way to mitigate portfolio risk for Northwest FCS; to support analysis used by Northwest FCS and their ability to calculate the likelihood of financial stress; and provide customer-based feedback by way of a survey from forest products companies in the industry, as additional support to assumptions that were used to calculate certain subjective criteria for estimating risk. As one method to analyze financial risk, customer data was collected for the years ending 12/31/2008, 12/31/2011, and 12/31/2014. Statistical regression analysis was used to measure financial stress migration based on companies in the forest products industry. The regression analysis indicates financial measures of liquidity, leverage, and cash flow used for such calculated stress, specifically prior to the economic downturn of 2008, through the downturn of 2008-2012, and post-recovery of the forest products industry are correlated with measuring financial risk. As a risk mitigation tool, the board of directors that governs Northwest FCS hold a commodity concentration limit of fifteen percent (15%) for the forest products industry. The customer survey provided information that allowed Northwest FCS to create subjective rating criteria for calculating risk. A guideline was created to assess subjective criteria provided by forest products customers on the same level based on the feedback provided which may be beneficial for understanding current results and potential future subjective risk associated within the industry.

Research report to SBL, Unisa, Midrand. / Credit risk has been identified as the main risk that can result in the failure of a bank due to ineffective credit decisions. It is, therefore, critical for the banks to conduct credit risk assessment on new applicants and existing customers in order to determine the level of affordability and mitigate credit risk. Consumer credit information plays a very important role in credit risk assessment because it can accurately detect and predict default. The aim of this study was to investigate the consequences of inaccurate credit information on bank’s secured lending division. The investigation was conducted using various methods to achieve the objectives of this research. This was done through the exploration of literature review relating to research of the management of consumers credit information in developed and developing countries, and secured lending and inaccurate credit data. A quantitative research methodology was adopted. It was observed that credit risk is seen as the key risk that banks are faced with. It was found that inaccurate consumer credit data can have a negative impact on bank’s operations in terms of consumer’s disputes, higher pricing and consumer overindebtedness. In addition, inaccurate consumer credit data impede access to credit by consumers. One of the general recommendations of this research is that banks should assist in training the consumers to improve their knowledge of credit report. Further studies in the area of corporate or business clients are also recommended as the focus of this research was on individual bank’s clients.

<p>I study local shocks to consumer credit supply arising from the opening</p><p>of bank-related retail stores. Bank-related store openings coincide with</p><p>sharp increases in credit card placements in the neighborhood of the</p><p>store, in the months surrounding the store opening, and with the bank</p><p>that owns the store. I exploit this relationship to instrument for new</p><p>credit cards at the individual level, and find that obtaining a new</p><p>credit card sharply increases total borrowing as well as default risk,</p><p>particularly for risky and opaque borrowers. In line with theories of</p><p>default externality, I observe that existing lenders react to the</p><p>increased consumer borrowing and associated riskiness by contracting</p><p>their own supply. In particular, in the year following the issuance of a</p><p>new credit card, banks without links to stores reduce credit card limits</p><p>by 24-51%, offsetting most of the initial increase in total credit</p><p>limits.</p> / Dissertation

Thesis advisor: Susanto Basu / This dissertation examines the fluctuations of the aggregate economy when frictions in financial markets are present. I focus on the the asymmetric information problems between creditors and debtors on the quality of debtor's projects and I analyze how these frictions cause the fluctuations in aggregate economy which is potentially inefficient. The first chapter examines the interaction between the perverse incentives and the general equilibrium effects of misallocated bank credit. This essay is intended to elucidate the mechanism of zombie lending in Japan. By incorporating a soft budget problem into a neo-classical dynamic general equilibrium model, the model shows that an inefficient zombie lending regime can be selected as an equilibrium. In this equilibrium, the incentives and the general equilibrium effects are interdependent. The inefficient use of resources crowds out investment when banks have incentives to bail out insolvent firms. On the other hand, the general equilibrium effects give rise to the perverse incentives endogenously through the formation of the liquidation value and the continuation value of insolvent firms. In the worst case, agents fail to resolve non-performing loan problems, and the model economy permanently falls into an inefficient regime. The second chapter proposes a model that generate boom-and-bust cycles by securitization of subprime mortgages. I construct a dynamic housing choice model in which mortgages are financed by securitization and I assume that creditors have errors in measuring the default risks of subprime mortgages. With this setup, the resource availability for housing fluctuates endogenously and it causes the boom-and-bust cycles. Particularly, there are two channels that change the resource availability: the security design of the securitized assets and the evolution of house price inflation. I illustrate that subprime mortgages can be cheaply financed by securitization when creditors mismeasure the quality of the subprime mortgages. This ignites a boom in the model. However, the boom can be terminated as the profitability of securitization declines along with the decline in the expectation of house price inflation. This is because the house price inflation is tied with the liquidation value of the defaulted mortgages. As the expectation of the house price inflation slows down, the subprime mortgages become more risky and the securitization becomes less profitable. Eventually, issuers of securitized assets withdraw from the securitization market and the boom collapses. The last chapter explores the transmission mechanisms of international business cycles when the borrowing capacity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) is limited. I embed MNEs that face borrowing constraints in a two-country international business cycle model. I show that the net worth of MNEs plays a significant role in generating the international business cycle co-movement: the wealth effect in response to the change in MNEs' net worth has a strong multiplier effect on domestic and foreign investment of MNEs. Output moves in the same direction between the two countries due to the synchronized investment. The model is also able to generate reasonable cross-country correlations in real estate price and consumption. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2010. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

The study contributes to the growing literature on the role of social economy enterprises on rural vitality, by examining the relationship between credit union activity and community population growth in rural Canada. A preliminary qualitative inquiry indicated that while most of the business policies and practices of a chartered bank and a credit union are similar, a credit union, in addition, extended non-traditional lending to their clients in the form of micro-lending and also participated actively in community development lending. Following the preliminary qualitative investigation, the impact of credit unions was examined using spatial regressions models in seven provinces in Canada using data at Consolidated Census Subdivisions (CCSs) level data to represent communities. Motivated by the potential role of credit unions as community based financial institutions, the quantitative analysis modeled credit unions as potentially reducing transactions costs for local businesses.<p> Regression results indicated that the presence of credit unions was statistically significant and positive in our most parsimonious models including only natural amenity factors, agglomeration measures and other social measures as explanatory variables. However, in the full model with economic variables added the credit union dummy lost its statistical significance. A possible interpretation is that the credit union dummy is an inadequate representation of credit union activity. More complete, high quality, quantitative data to reflect their activities in the community may have produced different results.<p> Recent credit union mergers are designed to increase their capacity and efficiency in providing services to their members. However, these new trends could aggravate the principal-agent problems. As credit unions become more bank-like though mergers, individual branches may lose their links with their local communities and their ability to perform their traditional functions.